Linux Will Eventually Be Desktop King

Megalith

Megalith

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…says—surprise—its inventor. Torvalds is willing to give it 25 more years of his time. But is it a futile effort?

Linux, which is now 25 years old, has done well on the network and on mobiles, but has not ever become a serious threat to Windows. For many years some bright spark declares that this year will be the year of Linux on the desk-top but it never arrived. Lately such calls have been fewer, ironically as more PC's use Linux for gaming. Speaking from the Embedded Linux Conference, Torvalds said that Linux had not been a failure on the desktop. “The desktop hasn't really taken over the world like Linux has in many other areas, but just looking at my own use, my desktop looks so much better than I ever could have imagined,” he told the throngs.
 
While I'm certainly not a fan of Linux, I think it will be sooner than 25 years. Desktops are disappearing. It's only a matter of time before people's phones/tablets are their primary computer, at which point, unless Microsoft makes a dent in that market, Linux will reign supreme.
 
Nytegard said:
While I'm certainly not a fan of Linux, I think it will be sooner than 25 years. Desktops are disappearing. It's only a matter of time before people's phones/tablets are their primary computer, at which point, unless Microsoft makes a dent in that market, Linux will reign supreme.
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Pretty much this. The home computer is slowly being replaced by tablets and cell phones. A market MS is failing hard at right now. There will always be people that want or need a real PC, but how many people that will be in just 5 years is hard to guess. If it were not for a handful of business apps and games, I would not have any need of a real PC at my house.
 
Two things are need for it be successful.

  1. Standards
  2. Management

Before Windows 95, PC's were just as much a mess. Everyone had their own drivers. Then Windows 95 introduced DirectX and finally there was a standard API for everything to go through. I know Linux has made strides on the graphics side, but DirectX answered alot of problems, graphics, sound, codecs, inputs, etc. Linux needs to get that ironed out so that the customer doesn't have to deal with that crap. I am not dealing with DMA's, IRQ's and base memory ever again.....YOU HEAR ME!!!!

There also needs to be management and vision. I can not tell you many times I have looked up a program on Linux or OSX to solve a problem and I find a free program that gets close, but it has been set to dormant or obsolete because who ever gave a shit about it 4 years ago got into a new hobby or graduated from college and doesn't give a shit about it anymore. Or you get a situation where several guys were buddies and things were great for a couple years and then they had a falling out and soon after you end up in the dormant/obsolete category.

Everyone thinks that the opensource model is a god send. It is nice for the hobbiest or for very dedicated applications. But the Windows PC did not get to the mainstream popularity it has now because of an opensource model. It got there because of strict "oppressive" standards and people looking to make money and build a career. Sorry.
 
westrock2000 said:
Two things are need for it be successful.

  1. Standards
  2. Management

Before Windows 95, PC's were just as much a mess. Everyone had their own drivers. Then Windows 95 introduced DirectX and finally there was a standard API for everything to go through. I know Linux has made strides on the graphics side, but DirectX answered alot of problems, graphics, sound, codecs, inputs, etc. Linux needs to get that ironed out so that the customer doesn't have to deal with that crap. I am not dealing with DMA's, IRQ's and base memory ever again.....YOU HEAR ME!!!!

There also needs to be management and vision. I can not tell you many times I have looked up a program on Linux or OSX to solve a problem and I find a free program that gets close, but it has been set to dormant or obsolete because who ever gave a shit about it 4 years ago got into a new hobby or graduated from college and doesn't give a shit about it anymore. Or you get a situation where several guys were buddies and things were great for a couple years and then they had a falling out and soon after you end up in the dormant/obsolete category.

Everyone thinks that the opensource model is a god send. It is nice for the hobbiest or for very dedicated applications. But the Windows PC did not get to the mainstream popularity it has now because of an opensource model. It got there because of strict "oppressive" standards and people looking to make money and build a career. Sorry.
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Linux cant even manage to standardize a desktop environment, package manager, basic text editor, etc.

Its a gigantic fucking mess, and why I refuse to touch it.
 
Every few years I give some linux distro a try, and it always ends the same way.
I spend several days setting it up, and eventually hit some stupid snag (like getting multi-monitor support AND 3d acceleration support in the same video driver) that turns into several days of forum searches and manual config edits.
And even when I finally get everything set up the way I want it, I run into some game that simply won't run correctly under wine (with the forums filled with lots of questions and no answers)
 
On the bright side Talos Principle is much faster on linux than Win10. Now for some more Vulkan games.
 
If Google continues to develop Chrome OS, it could be a stealth way to get Linux on the desktop (which I think includes Linux on the laptop).
 
Nytegard said:
While I'm certainly not a fan of Linux, I think it will be sooner than 25 years. Desktops are disappearing. It's only a matter of time before people's phones/tablets are their primary computer, at which point, unless Microsoft makes a dent in that market, Linux will reign supreme.
Click to expand...
But that doesn't make them the desktop king. There's not even a decline in Desktops. Unless something has changed, what's happened is people buy/replace phones and tablets more often than they do desktop/laptop computers.

A lack of growth doesn't = a decline in units used. I seriously many college students are writing papers on a tablet, much less a phone.
westrock2000 said:
Two things are need for it be successful.

  1. Standards
  2. Management

There also needs to be management and vision. I can not tell you many times I have looked up a program on Linux or OSX to solve a problem and I find a free program that gets close, but it has been set to dormant or obsolete because who ever gave a shit about it 4 years ago got into a new hobby or graduated from college and doesn't give a shit about it anymore. Or you get a situation where several guys were buddies and things were great for a couple years and then they had a falling out and soon after you end up in the dormant/obsolete category.

Everyone thinks that the opensource model is a god send. It is nice for the hobbiest or for very dedicated applications. But the Windows PC did not get to the mainstream popularity it has now because of an opensource model. It got there because of strict "oppressive" standards and people looking to make money and build a career. Sorry.
Click to expand...

Linux on the desktop is pointless, because there's no money there. People who run Linux desktop (outside of work) are either hobbyists/developers/admins or they're all about free software (possibly all of the above). The only reason Linux is so well maintained is because companies like IBM invest a lot of money in it because it helps them make money elsewhere.

The only way that Linux becomes king is if the naysayers are correct and the desktop is pretty much dead. I don't believe that's the case. I love my phone. I've considered getting a tablet again, but it doesn't replace a desktop or laptop. I can consume media, plays some simple games etc on a tablet or phone, but that's about it. I love being able to watch the news on my phone, because I can move from room to room, but I'm not very inclined to watch a movie on it (unless I'm on a flight or long train ride).

Right now, it's about where it was in the early 2000s, so the idea that it will be the desktop leader is laughable. Apple has a much better shot than Linux, and it doesn't have a good shot. Meanwhile. MS still has 90-93% of the desktop market share. It's not a close race.
 
I would need WAY better game compatibility + serious video editing software to be able to switch.
 
Oh any doing ANYTHING that requires Wine is not an indicator of how good Linux is.

Thats like saying, look I personally don't pay any taxes, but the roads and schools are still great!
 
We've come full circle on this. Not too long ago, phone and particularly tablets were going to be all that most anyone needed. While mobile OS based phones and tablets are great for a lot of things they still aren't ready to replace laptops. Now in time that might come. Apple and Google are getting into the 2 in 1 game a bit with the iPad Pro and Pixel C. Multitasking has improved on iOS and Android and Android is experimenting with windowing in the latest developer builds. So I think there's some recognition that mobile OSes and devices need to evolve to truly become desktop replacements for more than the most mundane productive tasks.

And while Android is based on a Linux kernel, the UX of Android is nothing like a typical Linux distro. So if Linux does have shot of becoming a significant factor on the desktop via Android, it's not desktop Linux. Linux is obviously very capable and useful but if desktop Linux, and not Android, is going to become a significant player on the desktop, it has to have the same level of hardware and software support as Windows, or at least very close. The latest and greatest x86 designs will have to come with Linux preinstalled, all of the latest and great games and other desktop software will have to have top line Linux support. Without this support significant desktop Linux usage simply won't happen.
 
If it is not, and he is still alive by then, he can say in another 25 years. People that know Linux are obnoxious that think highly of themselves and are very hostile to newbs. The chances of it ever becoming a consumer level OS will never happen unless the attitude changes. It is perfect for server OS and that is where it belongs.

LMGTFY is not even close to the hostility that newbs experience when asking questions.
 
Android is the only reason linux is moving to the mainstream for phones. At one point windows was top for pda's and then ios came, and then finally and luckily android.
 
Even though Linux isn't the king of the desktop, it definitely has its place in the IT community. I use it on my WiFi router (OpenWRT), on my smartphone (Android), and in my entertainment system (OSMC on Raspberry Pi 3). I'd hate to see it's development cease.
 
I have more and more friends asking about getting into Linux. They're even gaming in Linux too. I've been gaming in Linux exclusively for over 6 months, and there's so many conveniences in Linux that I hate it when I switch back briefly to windows for obscure reason X.

The speed of updates alone vs windows updates is night and day. Throw into that that things load faster in Linux, I get as good fps in games in Linux, or better, and I have almost no reason to use windows ever again.

Oh, and did I mention it costs me no money?

Yeah, windows is on borrowed time now.

Windows 10 has big usage numbers, sure. But how many people you know don't want to use it?
 
Maybe a linux-based OS, but not Linux as we currently know it. The way Linux distributions are put together doesn't seem to lead to an actual easy to use consumer OS. It's no closer to doing so than it was 10 years ago. Something like Android, which is an OS based on the Linux kernel but not really a Linux OS as such seems much more likely to me.

Chrome OS is being killed off so anyone suggesting that is SOL. Google is extending Android to support multiple windows and we'll see it replacing Chrome OS entirely within 2 years.
 
MRAB54 said:
Sun should make a Windows contender. I'd be all over that.
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Solaris 11 | Security. Speed. Simplicity. | Oracle

They sell plenty of copies of Solaris. I wouldn't suggest running it on a home computer as a main OS though. :) If you want desktop unix... free or open BSD are fun to toy with.

The main issue I have seen with the "linux on the desktop" take over hopes... is the waiting for the savior company that is going to step up and create that killer must have mainstream distro.

The truth is it will never happen for Linux... and that is completely ok.

The path forward for Linux isn't the desktop... the desktop is dying its not an important market anymore. The desktop may evolve into a more linux platform naturally over the next number of years. Or Microsoft will just add more and more things like the Linux Subsystem they are adding shortly. IMO its just not relevant any more.

Phones and tablets are already the most widely used personal computing platforms... even if we old timers can't bring ourselves to call them computers. Simple fact of the matter is they are and they take care of 90% of the computing people need today. A few years ago we would have said they could take care of 75% of what most people needed.... a few years before that in the time of the first terribad Windows phones we would have said 25% of what most people needed.

In 5 years... people running, Iphone 10 with an Isight (or some other stupid name for their version of mobile hololens type tech) or the inevitable throng of Android Devices with Augmented reality devices will be able to take care of 100% of their needs in terms of personal computing. The computing power will be more then enough to handle everything we do on desktops now... with AR style "holo monitor" display systems that make the idea of even carrying something like a laptop seem quaint.

The true threat to Windows, isn't linux itself... as much as it is changing computing demographics. I think MS spending R&D time and money on hololens is a good thing for them. It has been a shock to many people seeing MS running Hololens on what is pretty much custom laptop type hardware. There is a simple reason for that... I think they understand that if they are going to survive at all as a company 20 years from now they need to get that tech running smooth on mobile hardware FAST. If MS was able to hit the market with a Hololens / MS mobile compo system in the next 3-5 years they could head off that real shift that will destroy them if they aren't ready. If apple and or the google beat them to mobile AR with mass appeal, MS stock will tank... if MS gets their first though, who knows perhaps they could stay relevant.
 
leeleatherwood said:
Linux cant even manage to standardize a desktop environment, package manager, basic text editor, etc.

Its a gigantic fucking mess, and why I refuse to touch it.
Click to expand...

Then I would say you're missing the point. The tools that come with each distribution are optional and if you don't like what is included, you're free to install your preferred packages. For every distribution to include the exact same desktop environment, set of apps and features completely goes against the point of having multiple distributions in the first place.

If you want one size fits all, everything decided for you and to not be bothered by having to actually put some thought into what you use... then buy a Mac.
 
Quix said:
Chrome OS is being killed off so anyone suggesting that is SOL. Google is extending Android to support multiple windows and we'll see it replacing Chrome OS entirely within 2 years.
Click to expand...

Not likely considering ChromeOS has a massive install base for education use. Every time the rumour comes around that Google is killing off ChromeOS or merging it with Android, it's been denied directly by Google.
 
Nytegard said:
Desktops are disappearing. It's only a matter of time before people's phones/tablets are their primary computer, at which point, unless Microsoft makes a dent in that market, Linux will reign supreme.
Click to expand...

I don't see people actively replacing their desktops/laptops with tablets or phones.
What I do see is a small number of people, who only do light email or Facebook, not replacing their old desktop/laptop and instead getting by with their phone or a tablet.

Nobody in their right mind is going to type out a term paper on a tablet or a phone, and I'm sure not going to backup GB's of vacation pictures/videos to a tablet, or try video editing on one.
If you have real work to do, you still need a desktop/laptop with a decent sized drive.
 
nutzo said:
I don't see people actively replacing their desktops/laptops with tablets or phones.
What I do see is a small number of people, who only do light email or Facebook, not replacing their old desktop/laptop and instead getting by with their phone or a tablet.

Nobody in their right mind is going to type out a term paper on a tablet or a phone, and I'm sure not going to backup GB's of vacation pictures/videos to a tablet, or try video editing on one.
If you have real work to do, you still need a desktop/laptop with a decent sized drive.
Click to expand...

You have to think past the current and next generation a little bit... and not that far really.

Yes mobile screens size is a huge issue for a spreed sheet or doing real page layout style word processing, even games... mobile games are not a big screen PS/xbox experience.

However if I told you you could throw on a light weight pair of glasses (= to an average pair of sunglasses) that paired with your mobile... and gave you the equivalent of a 100" screen floating in front of your face. Would that not cover off 90% of the issues people have using phones for that stuff.

As for storage between larger and larger mobile phone storage, and improved cloud storage. I don't really see that being an issue either.

In the next 3-5 years... the industry will have everything required to completely kill the desktop for almost everything. Even video editing which seems to be one of the last things that doesn't make sense to go mobile with... MS themselves will be going after that market with hololens it seems, which MS is already targeting at laptop hardware. I think there real plan is to get things running on mobile as fast as possible before they get beat to the punch, because if they get beat by a few cycles by Devices shipping with Android or ios on them, MS is going to have massive stock price instability.

Like it or not... Mobile processors in the next few years (if not already) are going to be hitting i7 level performance. Mobile GFX will be easily the = of current gen consoles.

The main issues are screen... and Storage... and both issues are not only solvable, the industry seems to have a plan to do just that.

No doubt a desktop with a full on $1000+ GFX card is still going to be able to do much more realistic VR... and high end graphics. The question is though, will that really be anything more then a niche market. If I could play PS4 level games mobile with an AR headset, how motivated would I really be to keep up with the high end video card race... especially given the simple fact that game developers won't really be pushing that hardware anyway, heck we already live in a world where 95% of games don't push things so they can run on PS4/xbone, that isn't going to change anytime soon.
 
crusty_juggler said:
No it's not.
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You linked an article that has nothing to do with linux.

Not that I would argue... so far Windows is still the faster platform for gaming in general. Most developer time is still spent optimizing things for windows and DX. That may or may not change over the next year, still to early to really say imo.
 
ChadD said:
You linked an article that has nothing to do with linux.

Not that I would argue... so far Windows is still the faster platform for gaming in general. Most developer time is still spent optimizing things for windows and DX. That may or may not change over the next year, still to early to really say imo.
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I would take a 20% speed hit on games if it meant I didn't have to use Windows anymore. Compatibility is my issue. Way, way too many games that Linux can't run.
 
devil22 said:
OK, I'll take the troll bait. Why do you think MS is trying to kill windows?
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Trying to kill it, no what is happening with windows doesn't have intent.

That is like saying John Sculley was attempting to tank Apple. The last 10 years or so MS has had their Newton in the Zune... and a string of Windows versions that have annoyed more customers then they pleased. They have failed utterly to gain any market share in the fastest growing sector of computing, mobile. Much the same way Apple messed the bed for years with failed mac updates that never got them any real market share, MS has been doing the same in the mobile sector.

The biggest threat to windows isn't linux or osx or unix or any other alternative desktop OS. The biggest threat to windows is the market for desktops. The simple fact is the desktop market has been shrinking at a rate of 10% a year for a few years now and there is no sign that is going to stop any time soon.

Windows needs to evolve with the market... and so far MS has done a really really terrible job of doing that. The flop that was the mobile/Windows 8 UI has put them badly behind the 8 ball... as now the general public is nice and comfy using Android/Linux. One of the biggest advantage windows has had for years has been the familiarity the general public has had with Windows. Employers, schools stuck with Windows as it was the defacto system people learned and knew. That simply isn't the case anymore. More and more kids are growing up without really using windows at all.
 
It comes down to market share. MS has carved a large chunk for itself and they won't be easy to topple. If you think that MS hasn't planned for where the market it going, then you're delusional :)
 
ah yes the same ole song, just marking some of the highlights


Mobile processors in the next few years (if not already) are going to be hitting i7 level performance.
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Yeah, windows is on borrowed time now.
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More and more kids are growing up without really using windows at all.
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keep them coming
 
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BloodyIron said:
I have more and more friends asking about getting into Linux. They're even gaming in Linux too. I've been gaming in Linux exclusively for over 6 months, and there's so many conveniences in Linux that I hate it when I switch back briefly to windows for obscure reason X.

The speed of updates alone vs windows updates is night and day. Throw into that that things load faster in Linux, I get as good fps in games in Linux, or better, and I have almost no reason to use windows ever again.

Oh, and did I mention it costs me no money?

Yeah, windows is on borrowed time now.

Windows 10 has big usage numbers, sure. But how many people you know don't want to use it?
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That's what I kept noticing. I'd go back to Windows for a bit to play a game Linux didn't have and would just hate the experience. It had the software I wanted but I didn't want to use it.

tetris42 said:
I would take a 20% speed hit on games if it meant I didn't have to use Windows anymore. Compatibility is my issue. Way, way too many games that Linux can't run.
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This is true but getting better. The way I look at it is this: I have over 100 games of my collection that Linux can run. By the time I finish that 100+ games there will be more that will likely be ported to Linux from my collection of over 400. Then when I finish those games more will have been ported. What Linux really needs is more AAA games and for day 1 releases. People won't switch if the Windows version of a game is out day 1 and the Linux version comes out 6 months later. Things are getting better though.
 
Microsoft is making sure that we will swap to Linux sooner rather then later. With all the built in spyware and knee jerk UI changes to force people into the OS will gradually get us there anyway.

I like the Linux desktop better then what Windows does. Linux offers you choices and something as simple as scaling (correctly) on 4K monitors is done by everyone on the desktop market but Windows.
Eventually computer users will get smarter and the bridge between smarter users and "more" user friendly Linux OS will be last step to be taken .....
 
ChadD said:
Trying to kill it, no what is happening with windows doesn't have intent.

That is like saying John Sculley was attempting to tank Apple. The last 10 years or so MS has had their Newton in the Zune... and a string of Windows versions that have annoyed more customers then they pleased. They have failed utterly to gain any market share in the fastest growing sector of computing, mobile. Much the same way Apple messed the bed for years with failed mac updates that never got them any real market share, MS has been doing the same in the mobile sector.

The biggest threat to windows isn't linux or osx or unix or any other alternative desktop OS. The biggest threat to windows is the market for desktops. The simple fact is the desktop market has been shrinking at a rate of 10% a year for a few years now and there is no sign that is going to stop any time soon.

Windows needs to evolve with the market... and so far MS has done a really really terrible job of doing that. The flop that was the mobile/Windows 8 UI has put them badly behind the 8 ball... as now the general public is nice and comfy using Android/Linux. One of the biggest advantage windows has had for years has been the familiarity the general public has had with Windows. Employers, schools stuck with Windows as it was the defacto system people learned and knew. That simply isn't the case anymore. More and more kids are growing up without really using windows at all.
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MS tries different things, some work out some don't. Apple and Google have had plenty of projects that bombed. I'm sorry but I'm not drinking the koolaid on mobile. Even if mobile outpaces desktops it's apples and oranges. Seems like the linux and apple people bring up mobile solely because the numbers are favorable, I promise you they'd be laughing in people's faces if the desktop and phone market share situation were reversed and people kept bringing up Windows phone market share, they'd call them toys that didn't matter for Real Work, or something similar. As far as I'm concerned phones are more like appliances than computers, and matter as much as Linux in routers and set top boxes, etc. As far as Windows mobile, it's not so clear that is an MS failing, it seems solid to me, but sometimes products don't take off for reasons unrelated to their technical merit (same thing linux and apple users like to say about the desktop).
 
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