iPhone not top dog in 2013 ? Android + Windows gaining.

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Zorachus

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I am not trying to start a flame war, or Apple bash fest here, just my observations, and would like your opinion too.

So we all know the Apple iPhone is top selling smartphone for years now, and they have had their devoted loyal fan base. I was one of those as well the first two iPhone's, then moved on to the Nexus-One, and haven't looked back, having owned all Nexus phones. I am open minded to going back to an iPhone for sure, but want 4.3" screen and Widgets. But that's not the point of this thread.

To me the iPhone 4 was a major breakthrough for Apple, the first high res smartphone, with the nice industrial design, best in class battery life, and it sold like mad crazy, and rightfully so. At that time Android was still pretty rough around the edges, not as polished yet. Then came the iPhone 4S, which didn't seem like that big an upgrade, but Android had their Galaxy S2, and Galaxy Nexus which was very competitive and mature, and now we have the iPhone 5, again OS wise, not much different at all, and the design is basically the same again, just thinner and taller, bit overall still in the iPhone 4 family.

Now, my point. I read a ton of tech forums, Android forums, Apple forums, and general computer nerd forums. And the past several months I see more and more people going to Android, like the Galaxy S3...One X...Note II...and now the new Windows 8 Phones.

And a lot of these people were hardcore Apple fans and iPhone 4 owners, looking for a change, wanting something different. people that have said they would always buy iPhone's only, are switching away to Android or Windows, because they feel the iPhone 5 is just more of the same, mainly iOS being no different for a few years now. And really shocking is the Note II being so popular, not just with the Android geeks, but Apple fans, that thought they would never go for such a large phone before, but once they see it, and try it out, actually like it. Same with the new Nokia Lumia 920, tons of Apple people saying they were for sure going iPhone 5, then they saw the Windows 8 Phone, and fell in love with the live tiles, larger screen, etc...and just being fresh and original compared to the iPhone 5.

My question is, if the iPhone 5S this Summer / Fall, is just more of the same, do you see the iPhone going down in sales slowly ? And Windows and Android gaining more Apple fans ? My opinion, iOS needs a major overhaul, the "App drawer left open look, is very dated to me. Just a screen full of app icons, looks old and boring. Also 4" screen is still not large enough, should be 4.3" or so. And that's not just me an Android nerd saying this, all the forums I read are saying the same thing.

Opinions ??
 
Not a troll. Want a serious discussion on this. Will the iPhone eventually slow down in sales, mainly due to getting stagnant and not changing much ? And people being open to new Android phones and Windows 8 Phones ? Or will Apple always rule with the iPhone for many years ahead, no matter what ? Just curious
 
Zorachus said:
Not a troll. Want a serious discussion on this. Will the iPhone eventually slow down in sales, mainly due to getting stagnant and not changing much ? And people being open to new Android phones and Windows 8 Phones ? Or will Apple always rule with the iPhone for many years ahead, no matter what ? Just curious
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Time will tell. Not to mention this topic has been covered weekly by [insert apple fan boy site name].
 
Like I said, I am open minded to going back to Apple and iPhone. But for me, I don't think they will change what I want ?

- 4.3" screen
- Widgets allowed on home screen
- More customization, like what a Jailbreak offers.

To me I am shocked at iOS6, just being more of the same still. Really no different for a few years now. And the app icons only ? I have to give Microsoft credit on their fresh original live tile design. Will Apple ever totally redo iOS ? Or always just be a screen of app icons ?
 
I started off on iPhone and thought it was awesome. Then, I read everything on here about how great Android was, so I tried it, and it sucked ass. I hated it, despised it, and still want to throw my Android phone across the room (I use it as an alarm clock since it isn't activated...and I don't want to use my current iphone as an alarm because I don't like being woken up by even the screen turning on). Anyway, I had 3 different Android phones within a year to try and give the OS an honest shot, and it sucked.

So, just because people use iPhone doesn't mean they are "sheeple" or whatever the dumbass term is that people here use. They use it because, although it's largly the same over the years, it's simple to use and always the same. And for me it's never given me problems.

Also, why the hell does everyone want a huge ass phone? I didn't get the iPhone 5 because when I tried to put it in my pocket it's too fucking big. I LOVE the screen size of my 4S.

I'll admit, widgets would be nice on the iPhone, but it isn't a deal breaker.

As far as customization goes, being able to move my app icons around is enough for me, though being able to place certain widgets on the screen would be nice, but beyond that...it defeats the purpose of what the iPhone is.
 
OEM said:
Also, why the hell does everyone want a huge ass phone? I didn't get the iPhone 5 because when I tried to put it in my pocket it's too fucking big. I LOVE the screen size of my 4S.
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I was really hesitant towards buying my S3 coming from the iPhone 4 I got back in Jan of 2011 just due to the massive increase in screen size. Needless to say I love the extra space and I do not in anyway find the phone to be too big. Fits perfectly into my pocket. Now if were talking the Note II that maybe an other story, I'm not ready to go that big I think.
 
Zorachus said:
Will the iPhone eventually slow down in sales, mainly due to getting stagnant and not changing much ? And people being open to new Android phones and Windows 8 Phones ? Or will Apple always rule with the iPhone for many years ahead, no matter what ? Just curious
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In my opinion, iPhone's will still stay on top. I truly believe that when someone says "smartphone," a majority of people think iPhone's and rightfully so. While others, notably Samsung (and Google to a lesser extent), churn out great phones, they don't, as of yet, have the marketability, momentum, and prestige that Apple has built through a combination of marketing and their products. If there is a higher honor that any product can get, it would be "it just works," and that's due to Apple's minimalism design and style. Yes, they lack WIDGETS, hardcore Android users cringe and there is much gnashing of teeth, but if you honestly think this is a make or break deal for the average phone user (I'm talking about marrying someone that chews with their mouth open, as disgusting as it is, vs. a serial killer), you are completely and utterly wrong.

What is happening though is that Apple is losing their edge. This isn't 2008 anymore, this is 2012. Competition is much more fierce, and Apple, while innovative, dropped the ball on the changes and preferences of their fickle customers and now has to play catch up; bigger screens is a great example. The other problem is price in that if competition ratchets up the price wars (Google Nexus $400 anyone?), the economy sours, or if people stop upgrading their iPads every year, it could be a death by 1,000 cuts.

The question should be, how can other phone makers catch up to Apple? Samsung is bringing out features that people want, but I think they just suck at marketing. Yeah, we get it, Samsung got what Apple users want, but you can't build a marketing empire on bashing the #1, try to take their place, and continuously bashing others. Windows looks good but really, locked in with AT&T? Google will be a good contender, and while they the Nexus is wildly touted on these forums, we are not the majority of phone users, and I dare say that we probably are a speck of the minority of hardcore phone users too. I think if you really wanted to beat Apple, you need to beat them at their own game. Marketing, simplicity, support, retail locations, etc... Microsoft has some of this, Google has some of this, Samsung has some of this, but none of them have it all together.
 
I think what you are noticing, especially among the tech crowd, is that apple had a good fad going, now, I am not saying that apple has no value, but some percent of their customers were lots of people who just wanted to try new things. And when you look at windows phone 8 that same thing is happening, lots of people just want to try something new, I mean what is their to talk about with the iphone? Same shape and size and look of the OS for like 5 years now. And 5 years is about how long a trend lasts.

The main reason I say this is because when you talk to people about windows phone 8, you do not hear as much hype about the real power of WP8, people talk about metre etc.. But they do not focus on being able to really get down with MS office, I mean you can do a presentation with native MS office on it, even edit that, without all those buggy office suites that try to reverse engineer.

As others have said though anyone who watched it has known that apple has not been on top for a long time. Apple uses a simple trick, they only make one phone so duh, they will sell more of that phone than any other single phone. But when you have samsung starting to move phones like the S3 in numbers like the iPhone, you know that apple is in trouble because that is only 1 phone of many android devices. In fact that is only 1 of samsungs devices. Apple will soon be forced to start making lower profit value plays, this was what the ipad mini was.

As of right now MS is still just a niche product on phones. And it seems to me like it may be to late for them google will probably win the smart phone race. The only thing that makes me pause, is that MS has an uncanny ability to come from behind. So if any company can start to trade blows with google in smart phones MS is it.

IMO 2 very important things need to be done soon. If google wants to make the best of all this they need to get some sort of dock out that is universal for many android phones that allows you to hook up a keyboard and monitor and mouse. This is how they start to break into the laptop / desktop market, not the stupid way they have been failing at.

On the other side MS needs to throw down its gloves and just make some of their own phones and put some major pressure on carriers to carry them. IMO the big future value play is turning various people into phone only people, the majority of the population does nothing more than facebook and they dont even need a laptop. They just need a phone with a keyboard etc like the padphone. Whoever nails this right is going to have a huge advantage.
 
Very good posts in here, thanks. Keep em coming.

Do you think Apple is feeling any pressure now, more than ever before in the past 5 years ? The competition is getting really fierce now, and sadly, Jobs is no longer there to lead them forward.

Samsung is surprising me, with their sales numbers, the S3 is crazy successful, and I am even more shocked at how well the Note II is selling, I thought the N2 would be a niche product for only the Star Trek nerds living in Moms basement. But no, it's a really hot item now. Same with Windows Phone 8, I am reading and hearing a ton of positive buzz on it, this past week from real people.

So what does Apple do next, phone wise ? Just stay on track with the typical iPhone 5S release next Fall, with minor iOS updates ? Or do they have to get excited, and release two different sized iPhones ? One larger and one small, and redo the iOS UI ?
 
Zorachus said:
I thought the N2 would be a niche product for only the Star Trek nerds living in Moms basement.
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Ironically I see Notes and Note II's in the hands of the moms (mine included) more than the nerds. I find that old people don't want tiny ass phones that they can barely see, let alone type on.

It's really a shame that MS came in to the modern smartphone race so late. They have a really nice middle ground where their platform is more open than iOS, but more uniform than Android.
 
I think there is some confusion of what the smart phone top dog actually means - it means top selling phone and how profitable it is. The iPhone held the top selling smartphone title for some time, and is a highly profitable phone. Two things were posted here that needs to be addressed. Firstly, 73% of mobile OS's were Android, but that means very little when that's an aggregate sum vs. an individual phone, a huge distinction. Secondly, Nokia sold a lot more phone, but they were dumb phones that made almost no profit. Profitability is important because you would need to sell 100+ Nokia dumb phones to match the profits of a single iPhone.

Apple really is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position here. If they change the iPhone, they are giving up on the core value and roots of the phone. You cannot go to war with yourself, you need to stand by your product, and regardless of what people say, conviction is important. If you don't change the iPhone, the minimalism, the simplicity, the aesthetics, you are moving backwards by standing still in a world that is relentlessly moving forward. The "larger" iPhone 5, and the "smaller" mini iPad are, in my opinion, indications of playing catch up in a quasi Apple fashion ("damn, look at this change, so sweet! Apple, yeah!" *highfive*). Regardless though, Apple's the 800 pound gorilla, but the question is whether they can stay continue the turnaround Jobs did or is simply the IBM of the 80's.

As far as the Note 2, I bought it for my wife at the end of October. She had an iPhone 4, and I told her I'd buy her any phone for her birthday. She was considering the iPhone 5 vs. the S3, she saw the Note 1 at the AT&T store and said she wanted that instead. In her opinion, while the iPhone 4 and 5 were great phones, she wanted something with a bigger (much bigger) screen which Apple doesn't cater too.
 
There is confusion about what the top dog means because there is no good way to define it, people define it however they want to suit their own agenda. For instance you define it as a single phone but then you arbitrarily throw in profit.

By your definition Apple also dominates the PC market because they call their laptops all macbook pros and therefore they are all lumped into a single category, but is that fair or even sensible when HP and Dell both out sell them? HTC makes phones that are all the same phone but carry different names on different carriers so according to you HTC is basically nothing because you separate each of those phones even though they have just as much in common with each other as an iphone on a CMDA and GSM carrier do.

Playing games with statistics is a great way for apple to continue to hide the fact that android is crushing them, but sooner or later it is going to become way to obvious to hide.

Yes apple is damned if they do and if they do not but that is no one but their own fault. They purposely break up products and limit user choice in order to try to force users to buy more of their products. For instance the reason the iPhone remains small is because they do not want people like those with android to realize a tablet is just a big waste of time. Android users have figured out that something like the note 2 allows them to be highly productive and save money at the same time while having a world class performing device. You can buy convertible tablets on windows and have been able to for over a decade yet apple never brings such a device to market, because they can keep selling people 3+ devices instead or 1 or 2. However after the fad dies down then the question is, does apple present useful products of reasonable value, the answer is no, can they change that? Maybe.
 
I think it's just getting to a point where people are starting not to care as much now. As the whole smartphone concept has really gone mainstream to us it's still relatively new in the tech market. Yes, I know smartphones have been around a long time, but not pressed upon society up until just a few years ago, last year and a good portion of this year has really touted the smartphone pride wars, more notably Apple vs. Android. Where rabid fanboys of each device stand behind it and make claims.

It's no different then Mac vs. PC, we know that "war" raged on and now it's not really something that is widely talked about or discussed anymore really. The smartphone concept is new and fresh and people want to stand behind what they believe is the best to ensure they made the right decision with the one they're using. The whole tech behind smartphones is intriguing to tech type sites that they'll post numerous articles and comparisons between the smartphone OS's.

In the end I think people are going to eventually stop caring, the flame wars are going to die down and it's not going to be so heavily stressed upon us as much as to which smartphone is better, because in the end a smartphone is just that, it's just. a. phone. Apple is not going to lose any momentum, Android is going to continue to make an array of wide varied devices, and windows 8 will target a specific crowd. I don't think anything is going to change between the smartphones on what already has been happening. I think we'll all reach a point where we've become blue in the face with the comparing and will be doing a you enjoy your smartphone and I'll enjoy mine sort of deal.
 
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No, there really isn't confusion of what top dog means in the cell phone world. I know that internet forums have their fanboys run rampant, but anyone that won't admit that Apple is not top seller for the last few years is simply in denial. As I pointed out, excluding the recent dethroning from the S3, Apple reined supreme. Let me leave this right here -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_mobile_phones#2008

How to set the metric for what is "top dog?" Simple, pick the most ideal candidates and ask yourself, "why?" Every category is different so you cannot apply laptop, PC, car, whatever logic to another category. In this situation, sales and margins are the primary drivers on whose on top. Applying the 73% Android OS logic does not make sense when you are comparing phones head to head. Furthermore, that 73% also includes the shitty devices that get Android gives out for free, and are you seriously even considering comparing a low end HTC/LG/whatever to the S3, Nexus, and iPhone? As for margins, it does matter as it sets a clear distinguishing line between pump and dump dumb phones (circa 2007 and prior), and the flagships that are the only true considerations for creme de la crop.

Back to the original topic, Google is trying to force change by offering a cheap but genuinely good phone, but that is balanced by making a profit on their primary search engine business just like the Android OS philosophy. Beyond the scope of internet forums and their fanboys, I don't know how well it is going. It's relatively cheap at $400 vs. the $700 I just paid for the Note 2 off contract, but it just seems to scream "NERDRAGE" to the rest of the world. Carriers subsidizing phones (while locking you into the profitable contract) is also hampering this style of business too because you can now get that $600+ phone for $200 up front. Android in general I am still nerdraging on because I can't pick up 2 different Android phones and get the same user experience like I can from pretty much any iPhone due to the come one come all vs. lock down OS philosophy.
 
I am curious to see what Apple does next for their phones ? Will they just release another minor updates with an iPhone 5S and that's it ? Or will they do what they did with the iPad and release multiple sizes ? Keep the 4" and also release a larger 4.3"/4.5" ? And overhaul iOS with new UI ?
 
1) Who cares who is best selling?

2) Why not care about your needs, and worry less about who is best selling?

3) If you read number 2 and still feel like trolling, read it again.

4) See 1-3
 
Apple will continue to monitor their competition and what brings in customers. They will continue to do the same thing that drives customer satisfaction and revenue. Until Android/Windows can market on a level that Apple does, it will continue to be the most sold smartphone. Not saying it's better. There isn't a best phone because people have different needs/wants in a device.
 
OEM said:
Also, why the hell does everyone want a huge ass phone? I didn't get the iPhone 5 because when I tried to put it in my pocket it's too fucking big. I LOVE the screen size of my 4S.
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This is one big reason why I'm not interested in Android. The iPhone 5 is just on the upper end of tolerable and Android phones just keep getting irritatingly big just looking at the HTC Droid DNA and I shake my head. I like being able to use my phone one handed while texting if need be.
 
I still think the 4.3" / 4.5" screen size is the best. I too do not like the new trend of Android going to 4.8" and now 5" for screen size. My Galaxy Nexus @ 4.65" is borderline too large, just a little smaller would be perfect. But 4" is too small for my tastes. In between 4" - 4.65" is perfect for me.
 
Xan433 said:
Apple will continue to monitor their competition and what brings in customers. They will continue to do the same thing that drives customer satisfaction and revenue. Until Android/Windows can market on a level that Apple does, it will continue to be the most sold smartphone. Not saying it's better. There isn't a best phone because people have different needs/wants in a device.
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I beg to differ.

The Android vs iOS "war" bares stunning similarities to MSDOS/Windows vs Mac OS in the 90s. It looks like Apple didn't learn their lesson on no licensing the OS ouside of their own hardware. Android just ate Apple's lunch,and now it's going to take their cookies too. Android is just like windows... available from lots of different manufacturers in many different varieties of hardware. You pick what you like, not one model from Google. Pardon the language, but Android is shitting all over iOS in terms of market growth. Deveolpers, etc. go where the users are. If I could develop an app on only one platform and I had to choose, it would be the one with the largest user base. By restricting their OS to their own produced hardware, Apple is just signing off on their own long term slide back into irrelevancy.

The iPhone was an awesome phone, but the bottom line is that if you are going to produce all of the hardware and the OS too, lock it down to your hardware only, AND expect to keep the mass market share to keep developers interested in publishing on your platform then every single time you're at the plate you need to hit a grand slam. Those streaks don't go on forever, Apple hasn't been dominant like they were with the iPhone release, they're being victimized by their stubborn ways again.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/nov/15/smartphones-market-android-feature-phones

Screen_Shot_2012-11-14_at_22.39.38.png


Screen_Shot_2012-11-14_at_22.28.29.png
 
I just wish Apple allowed simple customization with the iPhone. Simple stuff like the keyboard for example.

On Android, if I don't like the stock keyboard my phone ships with, I can download a free app, with all new type and style keyboard for free. Be it Swype, or Jellybean keyboard, or HTC style keyboard, and then I can change the color of it, maybe blue, or orange, or whatever I want. All that is free, and does not even require root to achieve that.

That is just one simple little feature I like about Android. I think Apple should allow that ease of customization as well.
 
Zorachus said:
I just wish Apple allowed simple customization with the iPhone. Simple stuff like the keyboard for example.

On Android, if I don't like the stock keyboard my phone ships with, I can download a free app, with all new type and style keyboard for free. Be it Swype, or Jellybean keyboard, or HTC style keyboard, and then I can change the color of it, maybe blue, or orange, or whatever I want. All that is free, and does not even require root to achieve that.

That is just one simple little feature I like about Android. I think Apple should allow that ease of customization as well.
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pic related: never going to happen
Vei6g.jpg
 
Android may have more market share but whose raking in the profit? It's Apple and the app store with their 30% margin and much larger base. Also, everyone keeps pointing at the 70%+ market share, but how much of that is from shitty phones they give away to people that don't/little use data? How much of that is from the true contenders ala Samsung Galaxy S3, Samsung Galaxy Note 2, Google Nexus, etc... I can tell you, a hell of a lot less than that quoted figure, especially considering that Apple's share is in it's teens and has been a high and consistent seller.

I think what is lost about the Android OS, that people just don't get, is that Android is a means to an end - the end for Google is advertisements on their search engine. It doesn't matter how Google gets there, if it's giving away FREE software, as long as it improves the bottom line later on. It's nice that they want to get into the market through Google Play, but their billions upon billions of revenue and profit is through search and that is where the focus is. This is not the approach Apple is after, and you really just cannot compare the two philosophies.

Hammer on the nail -> http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/mar/29/google-earns-more-iphone-android

Stop talking about how important Android market share is. It isn't. Period.
 
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What does ranking in profit mean if you will be teetering on bankruptcy in 10 years?

Apple has an advantage in that they are single company, they can order the product to spec and make it and advertise it faster this way. But in the end the more flexible product is going to win so far it looks like that is android, in fact is has become obvious that google just looked at MS as their model for how to play the smart phone game.

Market share is very important at this point in the game. When the dust settles and all the development starts shifting to android apple is going to collapse, just like they did before, and apple people will be a bunch of old unhappy people wondering why everything does not work on their iPhone.

Apple was uniquely positioned be the first player to break out in the smart phone game. And it had everything to do with the iPod, not the iPhone, it was the iPod that allowed them to push ATT to allow the app store, nothing else. No other player was allowed to do that, and it was huge for them. It was only after that explosion that carriers finally realized they had to release their tight control over money on phones.

But now that game is over and apples business model no longer makes sense.
 
rudy said:
What does ranking in profit mean if you will be teetering on bankruptcy in 10 years?
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Name any company in the mobile space you can guarantee will still be around in ten years. All of them are two shaky quarters and some squirrelly investors away from being in a bad way. HTC isn't doing well; RIM is throwing a hail mary; Microsoft appears to be hellbent on pissing away every advantage they should have had, and taking Nokia down with them. Prior to the S2, Samsung was nobody's darling, and it wouldn't take much to put them back down. Sentiment toward LG is lukewarm at best. Motorola has the advantage of being bought by Google, but they certainly haven't been making money. At least Apple is sitting on a stupefying amount of money, and they've ridden out lean times before.
 
FrostBite said:
Stop talking about how important Android market share is. It isn't. Period.
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You can't dismiss it.

Right now it's not a large impacting factor... but it hasn't reached a critical point yet either. If things continue like they are now, eventually the IOS user base will be at such a disparity compared to the Android user base that it *will* impact IOS's viability (and thus Apple as the only IOS device mfr).


XenIneX said:
Name any company in the mobile space you can guarantee will still be around in ten years. All of them are two shaky quarters and some squirrelly investors away from being in a bad way. HTC isn't doing well; RIM is throwing a hail mary; Microsoft appears to be hellbent on pissing away every advantage they should have had, and taking Nokia down with them. Prior to the S2, Samsung was nobody's darling, and it wouldn't take much to put them back down. Sentiment toward LG is lukewarm at best. Motorola has the advantage of being bought by Google, but they certainly haven't been making money. At least Apple is sitting on a stupefying amount of money, and they've ridden out lean times before.
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That's the point I was making. It's like Windows vs MAC OS in the 90's. Android is like MS Windows in this case. Packard Bell isn't around anymore, but Windows didn't fail.... why not?... because Windows didn't tie it's fate to just one vendor. Who cares if HTC tanks, there are other Android phone makers. What if Apple bumbles on a release? *Poof* there goes basically all of the IOS user base, good luck recovering from that. For IOS to have long term viability they need to open it up to external hardware manufacturers. Apple had such a revolutionary product with the iPhone/iPod that they were able to make a killing on it, and it also catapulted them back into relevancy - they really were that much farther ahead of everyone else on the iPhone launch. However new competitors rise, and in this case Android has the better business model and a competitive product. If Apple sits on the OS and doesn't license it out, history will repeat itself.
 
For IOS to have long term viability they need to open it up to external hardware manufacturers. Apple had such a revolutionary product with the iPhone/iPod that they were able to make a killing on it, and it also catapulted them back into relevancy - they really were that much farther ahead of everyone else on the iPhone launch. However new competitors rise, and in this case Android has the better business model and a competitive product. If Apple sits on the OS and doesn't license it out, history will repeat itself.
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Android doesn't have a business model -- it's part of Google Admob's business model. Nor is it a "competitive product". It is a loss leader; a 100% subsidized handout that Google gives away in order to get their foot in the door. Once they've got you in their ecosystem, they manage to squeeze a few cents a day out of you as a revenue stream -- they hope.

This is not a business model that Apple wants any part of. Every time they sell a device, they get to pocket $200-300 in profit -- free and clear. They like it exactly the way it is.

And they tried the licensing thing. Once. It very nearly killed them, and that brush with financial death has defined them as a company ever since. They've positioned themselves as a boutique brand. They don't do commodity parts and licensing deals any more. They've systematically withdrawn from supplying business machines.

They don't want the Microsoft model, charging $15/unit for Windows Phone licenses, even if it would net them a majority share of the market -- which it wouldn't. It's much more profitable to pull $200/unit from ~15% of the market.
 
XenIneX said:
<snip for wall of text purposes>

It's much more profitable to pull $200/unit from ~15% of the market.
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So what's the draw to a smartphone platform without apps?

If their market share reaches such a steep difference, developers *will* abandon IOS as a platform. Apple is repeating the same mistakes that previously forced the into obscurity.
 
I originally avoided this thread because I expected it to be a train wreck. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that it's not. Figured I'd weigh my opinions on a few things. Sorry for the long post, trying to catch up with evertything :)

Zorachus said:
To me the iPhone 4 was a major breakthrough for Apple, the first high res smartphone
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I'm not picking on you, but one thing that I could never stand about Apple users was how, once the iPhone got a feature, it's like Apple "invented" it. The iPhone 4 came out in the summer of 2010. Before this, the first 3 iPhone generations ran at 480x320. In late 2009, we started seeing phones with 800x480 displays. By 2010, we started seeing 854x480 and even qHD (960x540). The iPhone 4's 960x640 was the highest resoltion on a smartpone at the time, it wasn't the first "high-res" smartphone unless we simply draw the line where Apple placed it.

Zorachus said:
Then came the iPhone 4S, which didn't seem like that big an upgrade
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A lot of people say this, but the iPhone 4 to 4S was th largest upgrade to date for any iPhone. The iPhone 4 was a slightly modified 3GS, but different body style. The iPhone 4S took the same body style, fixed the "Death grip," and added best in class internals. But too many people are "skin deep" and assumed because a similar body was used, it wasn't an upgrade. Again, not picking on you, just this mentality.

Zorachus said:
My question is, if the iPhone 5S this Summer / Fall, is just more of the same, do you see the iPhone going down in sales slowly ? And Windows and Android gaining more Apple fans ?
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The smartphone market is still growing rapidly. I see overall SALES for Apple being up, but marketshare stagnating or even decreasing as it has trended to over the past 18-24 months.

OEM said:
Anyway, I had 3 different Android phones within a year to try and give the OS an honest shot, and it sucked.
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I've got to give you props. No one can say that you didn't give it a chance. No OS is for everyone, and I'd hate to see one OS become dominant like Windows. I'd love to see 3-4 strong OSes split the market so that we have choice.

OEM said:
Also, why the hell does everyone want a huge ass phone? I didn't get the iPhone 5 because when I tried to put it in my pocket it's too fucking big. I LOVE the screen size of my 4S.
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Amen. While I'm ok with larger phones, my wife, a blatant Apple fangirl, hates the size of the new iPhone. She said he's going to keep her 4S for as long as she can.

FrostBite said:
I truly believe that when someone says "smartphone," a majority of people think iPhone's and rightfully so.
Click to expand...

What's ironic about this statement is that the original iPhone wasn't really a smartphone. It was designed to be an iPod that was also a phone, with a best-in-class web browser and an innovative touch screen interface. At launch, it didn't have apps (outside of what was built-in) because Apple was trying to force web-apps on people. And like Google and Palm after them, Apple failed at this approach. Unlike Symbian, Windows Mobile, and Blackberry at the time, you couldn't use an iPhone as removable storage, couldn't use Office, and other traditional smartphone features were very limited. But once apps started to come out, things changed fast.

Psych2l said:
Uh Android accounted for 73% of all smartphone sales in Q3, not sure how Apple is on top with the massive numbers Samsung is pulling in.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/14/ga...-but-overall-sales-of-mobile-handsets-down-3/
Click to expand...

He was refferring to single-phone sales. Typically, the iPhone outsells all models. However, there's some caveats to this.

-In 2011, the Galaxy S II started to outsell the iPhone in multiple European countries. This was a first for an individual handset.

-Don't make too much of reports of the Galaxy S III marginally outselling the iPhone 4S last quarter. It was the first quarter of world-wide sales for the SGS3, and the last quarter before the launch of the iPhone 5. It was Samsung's best quarter against Apple's worst, and Samsung barely won (something like 18 million to 16 million).

-With that said, should we be counting singular handets? If Apple sells an iPhone 5 with 16, 32, or 64GB of storage, it counts as an iPhone sale. However, Samsung sells the Galaxy S3 and Galaxy Note 2, with the PRIMARY difference being screen size. Adding in the SGS3 Mini (albiet dimuitive specs as well), wouldn't this be their "small, medium, and large?" Basically, anyone can account for numbers that makes one look better than the other.

rudy said:
As others have said though anyone who watched it has known that apple has not been on top for a long time. Apple uses a simple trick, they only make one phone so duh, they will sell more of that phone than any other single phone. But when you have samsung starting to move phones like the S3 in numbers like the iPhone, you know that apple is in trouble because that is only 1 phone of many android devices. In fact that is only 1 of samsungs devices. Apple will soon be forced to start making lower profit value plays, this was what the ipad mini was.
Click to expand...

Did I mention how much I love this thread? You guys are making all kinds of great points!
 
With all of that said, I wanted to interject my opinion on the market share debate that recently started up (without quoting everyone). People see the iOS/Android "war" as similar to that of Windows versus MAC. I see it as more like console vs. PC. Here's my reasoning.

With Windows vs. MAC, the primary difference was software. As Windows pulled ahead, it was gaining a huge software advantage, which caused it to pull further ahead. Even today, almost anything available on OS X is available on Windows, but not vice versa. The primary reason to take a Windows device over an Apple is software (although race-to-the-bottom OEM prices certainly help!). Android has no software advantage over iOS, and for the longest time was actually behind. Most developers still report higher profits on iOS than Android.

And that's why I compare it to more like PC vs. console. Apple uses a closed system with top of the line specs at launch. Android phones deal with fragmentation issues (different hardware and software configurations). Buying that top of the line SGS3 or Nexus 4 doesn't give you a huge leg up on gaming performance because developers are still too busy accounting for "new" devices like the HTC One V, with specs to outdated that HTC says they can't bother to give it one software update.The iPhone often sees software optimized for it while Android gets the shoddy ports. For the most part, this is getting better. But, it's more often that an app is superior on iOS over Android than the other way around.

So it doesn't matter if Android as a whole is outselling iOS. PCs GROSSLY outsell consoles every year, but games are made more for consoles than PCs because that's where the money is. And for premium mobile apps, that applies to iOS over Android today. So while Android makes up a larger PHONE marketshare, the low-end Androids are replacing yesterday's dumbphones and featurephones. That's bloating the numbers but those devices aren't usually the target of many app developers.
 
Android makes stupid moves sometimes... HTC Droid DNA... The perfect set of specs, and possibly the best phone ever, but only comes in 16GB non SD card config... Yea. At least my 64GB iPhone has room for all my files.
 
canna said:
So what's the draw to a smartphone platform without apps?

If their market share reaches such a steep difference, developers *will* abandon IOS as a platform. Apple is repeating the same mistakes that previously forced the into obscurity.
Click to expand...

This isn't day one, everyone doesn't starts at 0, and we begin from fresh. Apple was the first kid in the smartphone sandbox and they carry significant momentum. Apple makes billions off of the app store annually, and how much has Google made in 4 years (read the link I posted)? $500 million, 25% less than what Apple pays Google to simply use their software in the iPhone.

As I continuously point out, the market share is a huge sham. The monstrous percentage you see is the crappy phones they give out, and choose Android as their OS since there is no additional cost. Look at 2011 top 5 phone sales:
iPhone 4S, 70+ million sold
Samsung Galaxy S II, 63+ million sold
Samsung Galaxy Y,15 million sold
HTC Thunderbolt, 15 million sold
HTC Evo 4G, 14 million sold
That's 177 million phones in the top 5. Apple counts for 39.5%, Samsung 44%, and the remaining 16.5% went to the rest for a combined Android market of 60.5%. After factoring in other mobile OS's, how many shitty phones that use Android as OS do you need to sell to dilute iOS and bump up Android? A whole lot of shitty phones. Shitty phones that don't have data plans, people that don't use as much internet, people that don't buy as many apps, etc... Quantity is not quality, and owning 20 Toyota Corolla's will not be equal a Lexus LFA.

Lastly, as I and others have pointed out, there is a huge philosophical difference Android and iOS. Google is not a smartphone maker, even with their acquisition of Motorola, they are a search engine oriented company. They are more than willing to break even (Google Nexus) or take a loss (Android) if the eventual outcome is more revenue in search advertisements. Apple is a phone maker in both hardware and software, and they are out to make a profit on every, single phone they sell.
 
Neo Zuko said:
Android makes stupid moves sometimes... HTC Droid DNA... The perfect set of specs, and possibly the best phone ever, but only comes in 16GB non SD card config... Yea. At least my 64GB iPhone has room for all my files.
Click to expand...

Yup. I almost fell out of my chair when I saw the 16GB internal and no MicroSD expansion...on Verizon.

"Hey guys, let's give it a 1080p screen for perfect video playback! And then, we'll only give it 16GB of storage! Where will they store those high-quality 1080p videos? Oh, they can stream it on their 2GB data plan, where one movie causes them to more than double their cap!"

I've got 48GB of storage on my current phone, but only using 21. I want at least 32GB on my next device.
 
Neo Zuko said:
Android makes stupid moves sometimes... HTC Droid DNA... The perfect set of specs, and possibly the best phone ever, but only comes in 16GB non SD card config... Yea. At least my 64GB iPhone has room for all my files.
Click to expand...

that's not android making that decision, that was HTC......
 
Medion said:
With all of that said, I wanted to interject my opinion on the market share debate that recently started up (without quoting everyone). People see the iOS/Android "war" as similar to that of Windows versus MAC. I see it as more like console vs. PC. Here's my reasoning.

With Windows vs. MAC, the primary difference was software. As Windows pulled ahead, it was gaining a huge software advantage, which caused it to pull further ahead. Even today, almost anything available on OS X is available on Windows, but not vice versa. The primary reason to take a Windows device over an Apple is software (although race-to-the-bottom OEM prices certainly help!). Android has no software advantage over iOS, and for the longest time was actually behind. Most developers still report higher profits on iOS than Android.

And that's why I compare it to more like PC vs. console. Apple uses a closed system with top of the line specs at launch. Android phones deal with fragmentation issues (different hardware and software configurations). Buying that top of the line SGS3 or Nexus 4 doesn't give you a huge leg up on gaming performance because developers are still too busy accounting for "new" devices like the HTC One V, with specs to outdated that HTC says they can't bother to give it one software update.The iPhone often sees software optimized for it while Android gets the shoddy ports. For the most part, this is getting better. But, it's more often that an app is superior on iOS over Android than the other way around.

So it doesn't matter if Android as a whole is outselling iOS. PCs GROSSLY outsell consoles every year, but games are made more for consoles than PCs because that's where the money is. And for premium mobile apps, that applies to iOS over Android today. So while Android makes up a larger PHONE marketshare, the low-end Androids are replacing yesterday's dumbphones and featurephones. That's bloating the numbers but those devices aren't usually the target of many app developers.
Click to expand...

MAC was never going to make inroads to the work place.

MSDOS and windws ran it....(NT based) or on top of it (1--3.x,9x based).

This was the major reason. Also when Win 95 came out, it was game over for all the other players at that point being relegated to the scraps.


Android does have one problem though it has become heavily fragmented.....
 
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