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Hard Drive Shipments Slumping?

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Market research firm iSuppli says that hard drive shipments could drop next year with the exception of SSDs, which they say will skyrocket over the next few years.

At the same time, iSuppli is estimating that solid state disk (SSD) drives shipped over the next year will leap 6x from 3.2 million this year to about 18.9 million next year and will produce $1.4 billion in revenue in 2009 compared to $163 million this year. By 2012, iSupply is estimating SSD sales will produce $9.3 billion in revenue from 88.6 million units shipped.
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Data supply is being artificially restricted.

Who needs to buy more HD's when the average person couldn't fill that 500GB drive they doing for $60 if they wanted too.

Without HD video directly to harddrive the average person will never have use for anywhere near the leading edge of storage capacity. When the average person has 50Mbit+ DL and a reliable source of HD video, you can be certain that storage demand will skyrocket. As long as the data supply is crippled there won't be too much demand.
 
Honestly I don't see this happening unless SSD's drop drastically in price and the size jumps as well. Large capacity drives are becoming the norm in even the cheapest of desktop pc's. As hd content, movies, games and music become common place in most homes via download this will only increase the need for more room.

Current SSD's performance numbers aren't that great and size capacity doesn't suit most user's needs these days. I know I personally won't be switching to them until the price/performance is improved and they offer at least a 500gig model. ;)
 
Nemesis999 said:
Data supply is being artificially restricted.

Who needs to buy more HD's when the average person couldn't fill that 500GB drive they doing for $60 if they wanted too.

Without HD video directly to harddrive the average person will never have use for anywhere near the leading edge of storage capacity. When the average person has 50Mbit+ DL and a reliable source of HD video, you can be certain that storage demand will skyrocket. As long as the data supply is crippled there won't be too much demand.
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I agree with you, most people cant even fill up a 500gb drive and most of it is music now and maybe some movies, once streaming video becomes mainstream, then we are cooking.
 
Are they talking HD sales outside of mass produced PC's most likley because the TB has become cheap and 1-5 TB holds people over pretty well, but also I am limited to 250 gigs, if I could have a TB drive from the time I did my most recent format i would be at full capacity some people can always find more shit to put on their HD
 
People just aren't downloading as much porn as they used to. Instead, they're waiting for super-fast and cheap SSDs so that they can view the porn they already have all that much quicker.

Times sure have changed!
 
Dunno about you all, but I went crazy last year and got 3 1TB drives...

I don't need any drives for about 3 years... or so
 
SSDs are still to expensive. I don't think that they will be price competitive by next year. Still seems to be more of a niche product at the moment.
 
When I can get a 256gb SSD for 200$, I will definitely buy one... not until then, regardless of the performance they give me. A velociraptor is almost as good at half the price with triple the storage :rolleyes:
 
BladeVenom said:
SSDs are still to expensive. I don't think that they will be price competitive by next year. Still seems to be more of a niche product at the moment.
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I agree. SSD may be fast and silent but the performance is not worth the price, IMO.
 
maybe it won't be retail sales of SSDs that make the numbers jump.. it may be that the drive manufacturers have a deal with the OEM manufacturers that states that they can only buy a certain amount of HDDs and the rest have to be SSDs...
 
cyclone3d said:
maybe it won't be retail sales of SSDs that make the numbers jump.. it may be that the drive manufacturers have a deal with the OEM manufacturers that states that they can only buy a certain amount of HDDs and the rest have to be SSDs...
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Honestly I don't see any OEM's making a deal like this, unless hdd manufacturers give them a huge cost break to upstart sales and install base of SSD's. The manufacturing costs of SSD's, market penetration and technology is entirely too new for this to be the case. HDD's cost a fraction of SSD's with performance almost equal and with far more options for disk space.

I'm betting this analysis is going to be entirely wrong on all accounts.
 
Dream on SSD are like 4x the price of HDD on the market of the same size. I agree with the 500g statement since I haven't even hit the 100g mark on my pc.
 
The last time I formatted a 250GB harddrive with an original Windows XP (not SP1)

I actually *gasp* only formatted it to 127GB (the limitation on the original XP) and still haven't got to the end of the drive.

If you backup even occasionally to DVD+-RW or external flash, then harddrive size is almost moot in my opinion.
 
Ironically, this is when I stopped buying hard drives :D
 
Interesting thing is - Flash pretty well outstrips the SATA 1 interface as is now.

Probably by 2010, it will outstrip SATA 300. Which makes the case for creating flash disks that plug into PCIEx1 (or higher) slots so that they are not bottlenecked by the interface.

The whole idea of needing a "cable" to attach was because a rotating harddisk could not be easily placed on a board or motherboard. Not only is the idea of the spinning disk not long for the computer world, but the idea of a data cable, whether 40 pin IDE or SATA (and molex power) interface is starting to disappear too.

There are *huge* advantages in speed if you can get rid of the internal cable and just run 1 inch traces on a motherboard or addin board.
 
Nemesis999 said:
Data supply is being artificially restricted.

Who needs to buy more HD's when the average person couldn't fill that 500GB drive they doing for $60 if they wanted too.

Without HD video directly to harddrive the average person will never have use for anywhere near the leading edge of storage capacity. When the average person has 50Mbit+ DL and a reliable source of HD video, you can be certain that storage demand will skyrocket. As long as the data supply is crippled there won't be too much demand.
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I have 5 computers and a total of 7 hard drives. I'm almost out of space on all of them. My wife's laptop is the only one that has most of the space still left on it. My 6 year old's PC with 320gb hard drive may have a little less than half left.
 
The age of the SSD is definately coming. I'm just not sure it'll be by next year. Although when 80-120 gb ssd's get cheap I'll probably use one as my windows drive.
 
Fce it, HDD's are going the way of AGP.

Intel just proved that with their own SSD.
 
I don't think Molex power will dissappear for a long time. SSD is becoming the new HDD.
 
Hard drive space is growing exponentially. Media enthusiasts such as myself can't snap up these drives fast enough. However, Average Joe still touts less-than-DVD-quality XviD movies, 4MP low-quality JPEGs and 128Kbps VBR MP3s. They get a 500GB drive and it lasts them for quite a while. Back in the day we had to keep upgrading our drives to stay with the times. Now, they are large enough to use as mass storage devices for the home user for extended periods of time.

In time, when high definition H.264 reigns supreme and people start downloading lossless audio (a man can dream), then their needs for storage will grow. However, I personally think that when that time is here, SSDs will have developed to a point where their write cycles are no longer a concern and they match today's hard drives in storage space.
 
Can't see using SSD anytime soon as it's just not worth the price. One of my 500GB drives is filled with photos only and I'm certainly no pro. The only reason I could see using SSD is for a netbook. Wouldn't want one in my notebook though.
 
htpc_user said:
I have 5 computers and a total of 7 hard drives. I'm almost out of space on all of them. My wife's laptop is the only one that has most of the space still left on it. My 6 year old's PC with 320gb hard drive may have a little less than half left.
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I'm with you, almost all my HDDs are full, less than half capacity left on my last 500GB drive. I am building a new HTPC and plan on using a 1TB drive, that should keep me for a year or so. :D

I don't have cable and download all my shows, I can't even imagine what it will be like when I retire the xbox and finally switch over to HD encodes.
 
I also think the capacity of modern harddrives have outgrown the needs of most consumers.

Even for enthusiasts like myself it's clear that current capacities are more than enough to last for a while. I doubt I'll be buying any harddrives next year or even in 2010. I currently have 1140GB of actual storage plus a 500GB external drive for backups and on all three drives combined, I have about 600GB free at the moment which means I'm only using about a terabyte :) I could probably free up another several hundred gigabytes if I ever had the time to go through all the junk.

I don't think SSD's will completely *replace* traditional drives any time soon. For storing music, video etc. you don't need the high performance of the SSD.. it just doesn't make sense to try make a 1TB SSD when you can get a 1TB mechanical drive for so cheap.

However I predict they will very soon replace the Raptor as the high performance enthusiast drives of choice, combined with one or more large mechanical drives for storage.
 
htpc_user said:
I have 5 computers and a total of 7 hard drives. I'm almost out of space on all of them. My wife's laptop is the only one that has most of the space still left on it. My 6 year old's PC with 320gb hard drive may have a little less than half left.
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Last time I checked, 5 computers was nowhere near average. I have over 20TB between all my systems, with a good 75% of that used. That doesn't mean that harddrive sales are going to recover, since the other 98% of the population still has 1-2 HDs per computer, and likely <1PC/person.
 
JimmiG said:
I also think the capacity of modern harddrives have outgrown the needs of most consumers.

Even for enthusiasts like myself it's clear that current capacities are more than enough to last for a while. I doubt I'll be buying any harddrives next year or even in 2010. I currently have 1140GB of actual storage plus a 500GB external drive for backups and on all three drives combined, I have about 600GB free at the moment which means I'm only using about a terabyte :) I could probably free up another several hundred gigabytes if I ever had the time to go through all the junk.
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HD video really is the only thing that will be filling that kind of space in the near future. Music is simply too small, and SD video is pretty tiny itself. Lots of my 1080p stuff runs in excess of 5GB/hour. They fill even TB drives pretty quickly.

720p TV is another big one. Dexter is 50GB for 3 seasons. BSG is another 70gb. 50GB for Planet Earth. Movies frequently clock in upwards of 25GB a movie for 1080p.

In the end, it's all about the Internet connections. I happen to have periodic access to a 50/50 connection, but for the masses getting 2-3 mbit, there's very little use for multi-TB storage.
 
sweet spot for drives is the $99 mark and that is where the 1TB drives are at now. I have almost filled up my 500GB drive and I am going to remove it and replace it with a 1TB drive from WDC. I almost got the 1.5TB drive but there seem to be some hardware/firmware issues with the seagate drives
 
hard drives are big enough. they need to be faster now.
 
Meh, it's just another shifting trend in technology. Platter hard drives are nearing the end of their expandibility. There's just not much room left for improvement. Sure, they can slap more and more platters in making them larger, but performance is almost at it's max. SSD is the logical next step in the data storage evolutionary chain. The same way DDR3 is going mainstream and DDR2 will be phased out. AGP to PCIe.

A few more years of developement and we'll be seeing SSD's with far superior performance than platter drives, larger capacity and much cheaper prices. In the meantime I'm in for another 3-4 TB's of platter drives. :)
 
I don't see SSD replacing hard drives anytime soon.

Augmenting it though is a great idea. I'd like to have 32GB of SSD running at maximum SATA throughput speed (1.5 Gbits/sec) with nanosecond seeks for the OS/executables AND a 500GB+ harddrive for relatively slow access Highdef content (Bluray @ 36 Mbits/sec)
 
But then again - thinking about it further... I guess I'd just want a 32GB silent SSD in my main system only, and 500+GB in a NAS somewhere on the network where I can't hear it :p
 
htpc_user said:
I have 5 computers and a total of 7 hard drives. I'm almost out of space on all of them. My wife's laptop is the only one that has most of the space still left on it. My 6 year old's PC with 320gb hard drive may have a little less than half left.
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What kind of files? What could a 6 year old have that could fill up 320GB with? That is simply a perfect example of a drive full of usless crap. Heck even if you had every barney TV show it wouldn't even come close to filling that drive.
 
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