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This speculation is based on the following data points.
1. Nvidia's consumer Fermi line launching six+ months after AMD's 5000 series.
2. AMD's saying a refresh of the entire Evergreen line will occur in 2H 2010.
3. The growing likelihood the entire consumer Fermi line sales will be relatively anemic AND brutally profit squeezed from the day they are rolled out to the end of 2010 and possibly well into 2011.
4. Intel's move to incorporate graphics on-chip and AMD's Fusion roadmap/dropped hints indicating it will incorporate Evergreen 2H 2011 and Northern Islands 2H 2012 into it's Fusion solutions ~ over time the low-mid range discrete board market will diminish to multi-monitor buyers.
For Nvidia AIB partners, this is not a rosy profit outlook, to say the least. For those partners highly dependent on Nvidia based boards, such as EVGA and BFG, the outlook is even less rosy.
With a very small profit pie to divide up and little to look forward to, the scrabbling over that pie is going to get messy if not downright poisonous. A major shakeout is almost certain.
Meanwhile over at AMD sales are brisk and profit margins fat and AMD in an excellent position to drop a few marginal AIB partners and pick up one or more of Nvidia's premier partners.
The first that comes to mind is THE Nvidia partner, EVGA. AMD adding EVGA as a partner would be a kidney punch to Nvidia, accomplishing:
1. A vote of non confidence in Nvidia by it's premier and 'special' AIB partner.
2. Legitimizing AMD in the eyes of EVGA brandbois and Nvidia fanbois.
3. Eroding Nvidia's market share in general and it's fanboi marketshare in particular.
EVGA's business is SLI Motherboards (now reduced to the Intel camp) and Nvidia based graphics boards, and neither look to be growing or particularly profitable into the future, that as they watch a contemporary, XFX, immediately bite off a sizeable chunk of AMD's already fat margin graphic board market with their pricier, even fatter profit margin boards.
BFG is also a prime candidate as Nvidia graphics boards ARE it's business.
Bidness is bidness.
AMD adding in one or two premier Nvidia only partners while droppping one or more of their more marginal partners, Diamond and Vision-Tek for example, would be brutal for Nvidia.
1. Nvidia's consumer Fermi line launching six+ months after AMD's 5000 series.
2. AMD's saying a refresh of the entire Evergreen line will occur in 2H 2010.
3. The growing likelihood the entire consumer Fermi line sales will be relatively anemic AND brutally profit squeezed from the day they are rolled out to the end of 2010 and possibly well into 2011.
4. Intel's move to incorporate graphics on-chip and AMD's Fusion roadmap/dropped hints indicating it will incorporate Evergreen 2H 2011 and Northern Islands 2H 2012 into it's Fusion solutions ~ over time the low-mid range discrete board market will diminish to multi-monitor buyers.
For Nvidia AIB partners, this is not a rosy profit outlook, to say the least. For those partners highly dependent on Nvidia based boards, such as EVGA and BFG, the outlook is even less rosy.
With a very small profit pie to divide up and little to look forward to, the scrabbling over that pie is going to get messy if not downright poisonous. A major shakeout is almost certain.
Meanwhile over at AMD sales are brisk and profit margins fat and AMD in an excellent position to drop a few marginal AIB partners and pick up one or more of Nvidia's premier partners.
The first that comes to mind is THE Nvidia partner, EVGA. AMD adding EVGA as a partner would be a kidney punch to Nvidia, accomplishing:
1. A vote of non confidence in Nvidia by it's premier and 'special' AIB partner.
2. Legitimizing AMD in the eyes of EVGA brandbois and Nvidia fanbois.
3. Eroding Nvidia's market share in general and it's fanboi marketshare in particular.
EVGA's business is SLI Motherboards (now reduced to the Intel camp) and Nvidia based graphics boards, and neither look to be growing or particularly profitable into the future, that as they watch a contemporary, XFX, immediately bite off a sizeable chunk of AMD's already fat margin graphic board market with their pricier, even fatter profit margin boards.
BFG is also a prime candidate as Nvidia graphics boards ARE it's business.
Bidness is bidness.
AMD adding in one or two premier Nvidia only partners while droppping one or more of their more marginal partners, Diamond and Vision-Tek for example, would be brutal for Nvidia.
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