GPU prices — is the worst behind us ?

Marees

Gawd
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It is possible that silicon industry in general is yet to get over the shortage
But GPU prices will face downward pressure due to miners dumping GPUs !!


I can’t speak towards the legitimacy of the article, but I can confirm my pricing on GPU’s has returned to an almost MSRP place. The prices I’m getting are about $100 higher than they should be, but that’s a far cry better than before.
 

SeymourGore

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Hehehe, loser.
sorry mate luv ya ♡ muah

Taco hanging onto her 960 until she cn get 4060...or 5060. Maybe even longer,, because upgrade path previous was 460--->960.

I bet after the market is flooded with used and abused mining GPUs, Taco will be rocking a RTX 3090 and have a spare RTX 3090 sitting in the closet as a backup.
 

MacLeod

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I don't necessarily think they're behind us but I do think the worst is over. Prices from those bottom feeding, POS scalpers do seem to be dropping on sites like Ebay and these chipmakers have been investing in expanding and opening up more production facilities. Not an overnight fix by any stretch but once they get up and running things should be back to normal or at least whatever the "new normal" will be.
 

jbltecnicspro

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So bitcoin is 100% of the both of yours total investment/holdings, no other diversification?
Diversification is for the ignorant. Some rich guy, maybe.

I think Warren Buffet said that. I'm paraphrasing of course, and I'm being a little sarcastic. ;)

On topic. GTX-750TI's for $3000 in two months.
 

vegeta535

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I bet after the market is flooded with used and abused mining GPUs, Taco will be rocking a RTX 3090 and have a spare RTX 3090 sitting in the closet as a backup.
Price will not crash. They didn't the last time the bubble poped. Especially if demand still sky high.
 

Mystique

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Demand is falling away from "Sky High"

In EU, prices are crashing because scalper businesses are undercutting themselves as the stock has been sitting there for weeks.

Same will happen here. May take until late '21.

When stuff can stay in stock, prices will start crashing, and MSRP will be adjusted later on.
 

notarat

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Of course the worst is behind us. I purchased one recently so prices will drop and availability will skyrocket
 

legcramp

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Nvidia screwed the gamers from picking up cheap used cards by releasing the LHR variants. Most miners are going to keep their older non-nerfed cards because they mine way better and are worth more.

But at least you can pickup a new card at the new msrp.
 
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Demand is falling away from "Sky High"

In EU, prices are crashing because scalper businesses are undercutting themselves as the stock has been sitting there for weeks.

Same will happen here. May take until late '21.

When stuff can stay in stock, prices will start crashing, and MSRP will be adjusted later on.
That's what I'm thinking too, that eventually the demand will be met even though it's taking a long time. A lot of the people willing to pay the current prices already have a card. So if the supply eventually reaches a point where there's more cards than people willing to pay the current prices, then they'll fall. Most of the big mining operations have their cards, as well as the gamers who don't mind paying to have the best. Eventually the only people left who want one but don't have one will be the ones who were turned off by these prices, right?

I just hope enough are produced to reach that point.
 

Gideon

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Price will not crash. They didn't the last time the bubble poped. Especially if demand still sky high.

umm yeah used video card prices collapsed the last time the mining bubble popped. New card prices will also collapse when they collect dust on the shelves, demand for them is not that high, supply is just very short and that will change when Miners are not buying the majority of the production. Majority of gamers are not willing to pay the current prices.
 

DPI

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As long as some people keep thinking in absolutes and immediates like a "crypto craze" or a "bubble popping" or a "cheap flood of GPU's", they'll continue to be mystified and confused when reality isn't meeting expectations. Because zooming out and taking a more hollistic view of the data - both the retail side and the supply side, the reality is more gradual, more of a rolling wave. Comparisons to 3-4 years ago and the crypto mining surge of the time is also flawed, because it isn't factoring the global demand for compute unrelated to crypto mining being far higher now, plus a supply chain and component shortage, plus a huge covid crunch that backloaded demand.

The bright side is GPU prices *are* trending toward equilibrium with MSRP, simply as a function of more GPU's rolling off assembly lines and released into circulation every day. However it's very slow.

Phenomena like the exchange rate of BTC/ETH experiencing a sudden dip, followed by unresearched miners panic-selling GPU's on ebay causing a short burst of lower average selling prices for a little while, can skew perception about prices. Because the reality is the supply side isn't really improving, and the panic sellers will burn off and average resale price rises again. The other problem is that AIB partners and retailers won't be backing down from their MSRP's and selling prices now that it's krept up. "Scalpers" and "scalper prices" have been great cover for them to slowly raise everything in the background.

Prices are fast to rise, but slow to fall, and I don't think we'll ever see a return to $700 flagship GPU's with the momentum that the past six months have created.
 
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staknhalo

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Yep same here. Least my backup was a decent R9 Fury, but sadly it has been abandoned and really shows its age now.


I also sold it to a friend for $450 when I could have sold it for $800-something when I checked a few months ago. Just to dig that knife deeper 👌
 

FlawleZ

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I also sold it to a friend for $450 when I could have sold it for $800-something when I checked a few months ago. Just to dig that knife deeper 👌
Yep, I sold my Sapphire Nitro+ Vega 64 for $350 before RDNA2 released as I expected to pick one up shortly after release. Little did I know it would be 6+ months and not a chance in hell you can snag one at or near MSRP.
 

Gideon

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As long as some people keep thinking in absolutes and immediates like a "crypto craze" or a "bubble popping" or a "cheap flood of GPU's", they'll continue to be mystified and confused when reality isn't meeting expectations. Because zooming out and taking a more hollistic view of the data - both the retail side and the supply side, the reality is more gradual, more of a rolling wave. Comparisons to 3-4 years ago and the crypto mining surge of the time is also flawed, because it isn't factoring the global demand for compute unrelated to crypto mining being far higher now, plus a supply chain and component shortage, plus a huge covid crunch that backloaded demand.

The bright side is GPU prices *are* trending toward equilibrium with MSRP, simply as a function of more GPU's rolling off assembly lines and released into circulation every day. However it's very slow.

Phenomena like the exchange rate of BTC/ETH experiencing a sudden dip, followed by unresearched miners panic-selling GPU's on ebay causing a short burst of lower average selling prices for a little while, can skew perception about prices. Because the reality is the supply side isn't really improving, and the panic sellers will burn off and average resale price rises again. The other problem is that AIB partners and retailers won't be backing down from their MSRP's and selling prices now that it's krept up. "Scalpers" and "scalper prices" have been great cover for them to slowly raise everything in the background.

Prices are fast to rise, but slow to fall, and I don't think we'll ever see a return to $700 flagship GPU's with the momentum that the past six months have created.

Just looking at our own forums suddenly people have found lots of slightly used video cards to unload, panic is already starting to set in. They are trying to cash out while the cards are still inflated and ebay prices are trending downward as well. Unless Bitcoin prices recover which looks unlikely then the selloff is starting to gain steam. Miners are the only ones hoping for a gradual drop in prices because they all factored in being able to scalp the used cards after 6 months. Thus more often then not they are the ones posting all is well, no need to panic. Reality is, it looks like the herd is spooked and those that refuse to see it, will get trampled just like last time.

Always a chance something different will happen this time, but I feel history will repeat itself again, because nobody learned from last time.
 
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ZodaEX

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I can't understand the mentality of selling your only GPU in anticipation of upcoming yet to be released models. Are these PC users just very young and have never experienced a hardware failure or stock outtage before?
 

staknhalo

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I can't understand the mentality of selling your only GPU in anticipation of upcoming yet to be released models. Are these PC users just very young and have never experienced a hardware failure or stock outtage before?

I've done it plenty of times without issue - the reason for me doing it this time before we knew PC apocalypse was gonna happen is I was trying to sell it before 3000 series was announced thus reducing resale price of 2000 series because of 3000 series' improved ray tracing and rasterization performance

Going a month or even 3 without a GPU isn't a big deal for me - I don't game every single day (unless I get hooked on a game like Division 1 was the last one I played like that) and as time goes on and I've gotten older there's less and less games I'm interested in (also just so many more games made now so of course will be more I'm not interested in based on sheer volume/numbers alone) - but going on a year now without being able to play anything (besides Rocket League on low) is painful. I still have Control and Death Stranding I bought last Steam winter sale I haven't gotten to play yet.

Shit happens, this is just one of those times.
 
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rbtree

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Jun 25, 2017
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No,we are buying more into the dip. BTC is going to go much higher then 60k long term.
I may switch some of my IRA into an IRA that allows crypto investing. Short-term cap gains from any trades no problem. Also am thinking of a crypto interest-bearing acct..Nexo, etc. You know anything about those? Soon, I'm selling my rental house and will have 300--400k after taxes to invest!
 

HAL_404

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I may switch some of my IRA into an IRA that allows crypto investing. Short-term cap gains from any trades no problem. Also am thinking of a crypto interest-bearing acct..Nexo, etc. You know anything about those? Soon, I'm selling my rental house and will have 300--400k after taxes to invest!
invest in the poor ... your ride might be nearing it's destination soon and you sure can't take it with you
 

RareAir23

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I think right now in the situation of GPU prices and availability? It's too soon to tell. Yes, China cracked down really hard on cryptocurrency and crypto-mining in their own country recently so that take some of the demand away for now which means the scalpers temporarily has lost some big volume clients. I say "for now" and "temporarily lost" here because some of the miners in China well? If they cannot mine in China, they'll go somewhere else to mine where it's more smiled upon (if they can) and then they're back in the game. Therefore, on the miner front it ain't over yet...not by a long shot. The 1 thing I look at that is promising is that both nVIDIA and AMD are finally realizing and have admitted this that, "YES! We need to ramp up production as best as we can." Now, you're beginning to see possibly the tide turn there but...for nVIDIA it is ALL up to what Samsung can continue to give them in GPUs from their fabs. AMD it's more up to TSMC that has a really heavy workload already with what they need to give to the Apples, automobile manufacturers of the world and more. With all this being said I finish with this: message me back on August 1st and let's see where we are then and if the trends we are seeing now forecast and propagate to that date to be lower and lower prices and more and more availability. Out!
 

arnemetis

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Things are still awful, and all you have to do to see that is try buying a 3070 ti FE from ANYWHERE. Outside of reviewer samples, they simply do not exist. You can theorize all you want as to why, entertain all the conspiracy theories or not, and that fact remains. This indicates it is not scalpers nor miners (especially since its a lhr part.) This is either indicative of continued chip shortage problems, or it is indicative of nvidia having massive problems / playing games. Either of these two are very bad for gamers, without having our usual scapegoats to blame.

My evga 3070 ti I managed to snag via early signup for the gf's pc still mines fine, just not etherium, doing about $3/day on nicehash. It will pay for itself in a year. So miners in for the long haul will not care and still buy anything they can get their hands on.

If nvidia actually gave a crap, they wouldn't have put all this work in to cut etherium in half (pretty curious that this is what they went with,) they would have made it do 0, or even provide corrupt results that started to poison the entire network. They would have done it for all crypto of any kind. Perhaps it's just something that takes time, and 4k series will be entirely unminable. But none of this has helped a single gamer get their hands on a card. It's a business decision to eventually move miners over to cmp only, and in the short term all it does is hurt gamers because now they won't be able to make a few bucks to help offset the crazy costs of their cards.

There will be no deluge of used cards this time, there's nothing better for miners to move on to. 3090s in particular will never fall in value, they are not gimped and with their high relative premium they are a bad target for the resale market. I think maybe the 3080 ti will become somewhat available, but that is because of its high price that people who didn't buy $1,200 2080 tis won't stomach this time around either. Nvidia will never make a financial mistake like the 3k series launch at such low msrps ever again.
 
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Things are still awful, and all you have to do to see that is try buying a 3070 ti FE from ANYWHERE. Outside of reviewer samples, they simply do not exist. You can theorize all you want as to why, entertain all the conspiracy theories or not, and that fact remains. This indicates it is not scalpers nor miners (especially since its a lhr part.) This is either indicative of continued chip shortage problems, or it is indicative of nvidia having massive problems / playing games. Either of these two are very bad for gamers, without having our usual scapegoats to blame.

I heard nVidia just decided not to launch the 3070 Ti Founder's Edition in the US. I've seen it on eBay when I include international listings, especially in Europe. The fact that AIB 3070 Ti is available also makes me doubt it's a chip shortage issue, seems more likely that nVidia was pressured not to compete with their own AIBs in the US market due to the fact that our retailers tend to sell at MSRP. The main people that benefit from nVidia not launching that card/delaying the launch here are the people selling non-FE cards that have a higher MSRP.
 
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Marees

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The entire market is cooling off, used GPUs are said to be appearing for prices near MSRP. Overall, the GPU market appears to be moving back towards something like normalcy.

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/324393-bitcoin-and-ethereum-both-show-signs-of-cooling-off

It may still take 6-12 months for backlogs to clear, however. Most of the PC gamers who would have bought Ampere cards have been stuck not doing so thanks to bad pricing. We’re probably looking at some months of elevated gaming-related demand after prices fall low enough to trigger increased gamer demand in the first place.
 
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