Electric Vehicle Sales Fall Far Short Of White House Goal

[lostinseganet]

It would take a price of under 25,000 and 100,000 mile warranty, it needed to look kinda cool,
and the range would need to be 250-300 miles per charge in winter

 

[SLee]

Teslas head battery engineering guy, JB Straubel said somewhere that on average lithium ion energy density is improving at a rate of around 8% per year. So to get double our current level will take around 9 years at those average rates.

No, over a long period of time the energy densities of state-of-the-art batteries have increased at possibly 8%/year. But it's not a continuous improvement, the big improvements come from new chemistry, such as the development of Li-Ion that improved on Ni-MH. In between these changes in chemistry, density improvements is much less.

So don't count on Li-Ion being double the density in 9 years. If there batteries that are double the current density they will most likely be made of something else.

 

[Roberty]

What would it take for me to buy one?

200 mile range at least
80% charge < 15 minute on 220Volt outlet
80% charge < 4 hours on 120Volt outlet
Below $35,000

The Chevy Bolt starts production this fall. Charging times though are about 25 miles of range per hour of charge. http://www.chevrolet.com/bolt-ev-electric-vehicle.html?&seo=goo_|_GM+Chevy+Lifestyle_|_GMNA%7CUS%7CCHV%7CGOOG%7CS%7CBP%7CA%7CEX%7CBLA%7CNABolt+EV+%7CELV%7C0%7C0%7C2017-Bolt-Reveal-Exact%7CNA%7CNA%7CNA%7CNA_|_Bolt_|_chevy%20bolt

 

[Draax]

I find it amazing how many posters here, apparently, feel that the mere existence of EVs is a personal attack.

 

[Sufu]

I don't need a study to understand how a battery works or that stats on paper are completely different from real world application. Given the leaf has a sub 90 mile range in perfect conditions, that range drops drastically when you are creeping along in traffic with everything turned on. If you suddenly think the batteries aren't being drained just because you are sitting still in traffic and that somehow you are still going to get the full distance doing 10mph, then quite honestly you are delusional.



You missed the point, we are discussing the leaf and it's horrid range and how it applies to a place like Atlanta where the actual distance isn't that long but you are in the car for hours just to get there. Sorry but not all of us are running out and dropping 50k on a toy, I'm glad you obviously have enough disposable income to waste. The Tesla isn't the typical "consumer" Ev by any stretch. It's like comparing a Mercedes S class to a honda civic.

Also on road trips, if I had to stop every 3 hours, I would never get anywhere. I really don't understand why some of you have this need to stop so damn much. I literally only stop when I run out of gas and that is at most 5 minutes. If i'm travelling somewhere, I don't want or need to add hours to a trip unnecessarily.

Leaf in stop and go traffic is not going to drain the battery that fast. I'm sorry but you are way off - have you ever even driven a EV?. Yes it will drain the battery just stopped, but ICE cars waste much more fuel under similar conditions - their only advantage is the longer range. The "stop" part is what kills you. I do agree that you will not be able to drive 90 miles in stop and go conditions under any weather, but the same would be true if you had an ICE with the same amount of fuel.

If you don't stop during road trips, then you either travel solo or you are in the minority. I find it difficult not to stop every few hours to stretch, bio, grab a snack or whatever. But hey, if you can travel cross country with only ever stopping for gas, then more power for you.

I have to say, Leaf was never meant to be used as a "road trip" car, so mentioning leaf in anything other than commuting and going around town, is pointless. You want to discuss long range EVs that are practical and don't cost as much as a Mercedes? Then how about the Bolt? It was shown to get over 200 miles of range, and price is going to be around 35k. With the Federal rebate of $7500, that brings it under 30k. At least this is much more practical to drive around - even with the lack of supercharging, than a Leaf under similar conditions. To be fair though, I would not do 200+ mile trips on either, unless I knew I could absolutely destination charge on the Bolt.

 

[Endgame]

I don't need a study to understand how a battery works or that stats on paper are completely different from real world application. Given the leaf has a sub 90 mile range in perfect conditions, that range drops drastically when you are creeping along in traffic with everything turned on. If you suddenly think the batteries aren't being drained just because you are sitting still in traffic and that somehow you are still going to get the full distance doing 10mph, then quite honestly you are delusional.

My neighbor has a Leaf and a 9.3 mile commute to work, driving into DC - so traffic worse than Atlanta. In casual chatting with him a couple of weeks ago, he loves the leaf - says he has never had problems making it to and from work on a single charge over 3 years. He also says he has never had a problem finding a charging station if he absolutely needs one, but its pretty much moot as the single charge is enough to manage home -> work -> errands -> bar -> home. He even said the impact on his electric bill was minimal as he has a big solar install on his house and he was generating a surplus most months before the leaf. Overall it was pretty compelling.

 

[Sufu]

It would take a price of under 25,000 and 100,000 mile warranty, it needed to look kinda cool,
and the range would need to be 250-300 miles per charge in winter

Even the Tesla 90D doesn't get 300 miles of range in winter. I doubt we will have one under 35k that soon. Outside of that though, the Bolt does get over 200 miles of range and will be under 30k with the 7500 Federal rebate.

 

[Sufu]

My neighbor has a Leaf and a 9.3 mile commute to work, driving into DC - so traffic worse than Atlanta. In casual chatting with him a couple of weeks ago, he loves the leaf - says he has never had problems making it to and from work on a single charge over 3 years. He also says he has never had a problem finding a charging station if he absolutely needs one, but its pretty much moot as the single charge is enough to manage home -> work -> errands -> bar -> home. He even said the impact on his electric bill was minimal as he has a big solar install on his house and he was generating a surplus most months before the leaf. Overall it was pretty compelling.

Yup this. If you live in a state with really high electric rates, then having solar makes much more sense, esp with an EV to help drive down the costs. I live in the NE where electric rates are cheap, about 12-13c/kw, but on the ToD plan, I pay < 7c/kw off-peak, which is when I charge my car.

 

[Snowdog]

That site's "cost to drive 25 miles" assumes 100% charging efficiency. Real world charging efficiency is about 80%.

Where is stated that the EPA assumes 100% charging efficiency in their cost calculations?

BTW Tesla charging efficiency appears to be 85%:
http://www.teslarati.com/ekm-digital-submeter-measures-ev-charging-efficiency/

Also don't forget many place of lower power rates overnight. When the bulk of charging will take place.

 

[Snowdog]

I'm trying to explain the reasons for the low adoption seen in the OP. It's exactly as you say: they're niche products that are really only appropriate for early adopters/enthusiasts right now. That's why they're not selling nearly as well as was hoped.

What does hoped have to do with it. The arbitrary 1 million EV thing was bullshit.

EV sales curve are close to where hybrids were, and EVs are obviously a lot harder for people to get their heads around.

For a long time there were only 2 widely available EVs and Teslas are too expensive for most people. Recently the BMW i3 joined in, but it is fairly expensive as well.

Despite being the most expensive, having no dealer network and doing no advertising, Tesla outsold all the other EV offerings. IIRC it even outsold all the plug-in hybrids as well.

That tells that the lower end product is lacking. It would be like Porsche outselling Toyota and Honda. This is not normally the way the market works.

A couple of my friends wanted to go EV, they tried to get a Ford Focus EV, but it turned out, despite claims you couldn't get them here, same for the Kia EV. The only affordable EV they could get was the Leaf. Both my buddy and his wife thought it was too ugly.

The problem with the affordable EV market is that it is riding almost entirely on one model. A model that has unfortunate looks.

They bought a Volt to hold them over until there are more choices on the market.

The "affordable" part of the EV market is going to ramp up in a big way. The Chevy Bolt has great specs (200 mile range, 0-60 under 7 seconds), looks pretty sharp and will be ~$30K with incentives. This is prompting all competitors to boost their range as well. A year after that the Tesla Model 3...

The EV landscape is growing like mad. This isn't some flash in the pan fad, it is the future of the automobile, and now is when it starts.

But even revolutions seem slow when you are there in the beginning.

 

[Snowdog]

I figured they wouldn't make that mistake. EPA numbers include charging efficiency. My original comments were correct, your assumptions were incorrect:

In estimating electric vehicle fuel economy, is electricity use measured from the battery or from the charge source?

"Electricity use is measured from the charge source. This is useful to consumers because (1) a small amount of energy is lost in charging the vehicle, and (2) this estimate represents the energy that is paid for by the consumer. As with other fuel types, upstream energy use and losses are not included in these estimates. For more information, see EPA Test Procedures for Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids."

 

[jj14]

All about the price

 

[Dekoth-E-]

I find it amazing how many posters here, apparently, feel that the mere existence of EVs is a personal attack.

I'm just going to use this as a reason why I no longer see a reason to respond individually to all the above posts. I find it more amazing that this seems to be the attitude of the EV advocates in this thread. I don't see a single one of us acting like EV's or ownership of them is some personal attack or in any way devalues ICE cars. I see people criticizing legitimate shortcomings of the EV's and simply pointing out exactly why EV's have failed to take off and what it will take to get them to do so. The only ones I see knee jerking are those trying to blindly defend those shortcomings and act like they are no big deal. Well news flash guys, if those things weren't a big deal, They would be Selling! However Obviously those shortcomings are a BIG Deal. So really the only ones being ridiculous in this thread are those trying to pretend that those shortcomings aren't.

I've said it multiple times now. I have no qualms about owning an EV. I frankly don't care what my car is actually powered by. What I care about is the cost, convenience, reliability and general aesthetics of the car. I couldn't give two shits about it's power source. The fact of the matter is that at present EV's DO NOT compete with their ICE counterparts. If they want to compete then we have pointed out repeatedly the short comings that need to be fixed.

 

[kumquat]

Where is stated that the EPA assumes 100% charging efficiency in their cost calculations?

BTW Tesla charging efficiency appears to be 85%:
http://www.teslarati.com/ekm-digital-submeter-measures-ev-charging-efficiency/

Also don't forget many place of lower power rates overnight. When the bulk of charging will take place.

I didn't say anything about the EPA. The web site that was linked that quoted the cost of the Leaf as $0.96 per 25 miles achieves that calculation by taking the EPA rating of 30 kWh for 100 miles, which is 7.5 kWh per 25 miles, and multiplying it by 12.8 cents per kWh, which is about the national average.

This is disingenuous, because charging is only about 80% efficient. To get the 30 kWh into the vehicle, you need to draw about 37.5 kWh from the outlet, raising the cost per 25 miles from $0.96 to $1.20.

Even at 85%, that's $4.50 per 100 miles, which is still much higher than the Prius' $3.70 per mile, and the Prius has the advantages of more room, 550 mile range with 0 to 100% charging in 3 minutes, two orders of magnitude more "charging stations", and lower up-front cost.

 

[Snowdog]

I didn't say anything about the EPA. The web site that was linked that quoted the cost of the Leaf as $0.96 per 25 miles achieves that calculation by taking the EPA rating of 30 kWh for 100 miles, which is 7.5 kWh per 25 miles, and multiplying it by 12.8 cents per kWh, which is about the national average.

This is disingenuous, because charging is only about 80% efficient.

As already point out in a post above yours. EPA calculations for EV measure electricity used by the charger. So this is already taken into account and you are just wrong on this.

 

[kumquat]

Ooh I missed that.

Even still, the Leaf is more expensive up front and per mile than the Prius C, let alone the more-efficient Prius and Prius Eco. $3.84 vs $3.70, $3.56, and $3.30, respectively. And of course the range, size, and "charging time" as well.

 

[Spewn]

If by cost/mile, you mean fuel cost, then no gas cars aren't equal and hybrids don't "destroy" them.

Most people mean "total cost" not just the cost of the fuel. Why would it ever make sense to ignore the fact that, according to the comparison website you just posted, the Leaf costs as much as $17,000 more than the Versa? Even if we use the smaller figure of $12,000, those charts have the Leaf "saving" $400/year compared to the Versa which is 30 years to break even!

 

[Snowdog]

Most people mean "total cost" not just the cost of the fuel. Why would it ever make sense to ignore the fact that, according to the comparison website you just posted, the Leaf costs as much as $17,000 more than the Versa? Even if we use the smaller figure of $12,000, those charts have the Leaf "saving" $400/year compared to the Versa which is 30 years to break even!

Except, that isn't what they were talking about. They had incorrectly assumed that it cost more to charge than run a regular car on gasoline.

They were simply wrong on that.

As far as overall cost winner, It has been pointed out numerous times, that most people don't simply choose the absolute cheapest car that can get them from point A to point B. In fact almost no one does.

 

[Snowdog]

Ooh I missed that.

Even still, the Leaf is more expensive up front and per mile than the Prius C, let alone the more-efficient Prius and Prius Eco. $3.84 vs $3.70, $3.56, and $3.30, respectively. And of course the range, size, and "charging time" as well.

Well now you are moving the goal posts. You were banging the drum on gas costing the same even in regular cars, that electricity does to charge an EV, and that Hybrids were destroying EVs on fueling costs.

Still not seeing where you get the Prius C lower than the Leaf for fueling:

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37066&id=37092&id=37163&id=37164

25 mile trip:
Prius C: $1
Leaf: $0.96

Only the Prius Eco will have lower fueling costs with our current, highly unusual gas prices. How long do you think that will last? How much does a new Prius Eco cost?

 

[kumquat]

Except, that isn't what they were talking about. They had incorrectly assumed that it cost more to charge than run a regular car on gasoline.

They were simply wrong on that.

As far as overall cost winner, It has been pointed out numerous times, that most people don't simply choose the absolute cheapest car that can get them from point A to point B. In fact almost no one does.

I don't think anyone said a regular car is cheaper to run per mile. Most hybrids are cheaper per mile than the Leaf and much cheaper per mile than a Model S or X. A lot of ICE cars get close.

Of course, they get close in per-mile costs, but win outright in up-front cost.

They also win outright, by a huge margin, in range and charging times.

No, most people don't choose the cheapest car they can find. They choose the best car that they can fit within their budget. "Best" varies quite a bit, but convenience, power, efficiency, options, and cool factor all play into it.

 

[kumquat]

Well now you are moving the goal posts. You were banging the drum on gas costing the same even in regular cars, that electricity does to charge an EV, and that Hybrids were destroying EVs on fueling costs.

Still not seeing where you get the Prius C lower than the Leaf for fueling:

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37066&id=37092&id=37163&id=37164

25 mile trip:
Prius C: $1
Leaf: $0.96

Only the Prius Eco will have lower fueling costs with our current, highly unusual gas prices. How long do you think that will last? How much does a new Prius Eco cost?

When I made the comparison of a regular car to the Tesla, I made the mistake of adding charging inefficiency when it was already included.

The Mazda 2 is $5 per 100 miles, the Model S is $4.92. That's ICE-only. The Prius is $3.55.

The Leaf is obviously more efficient than the Tesla, and is cheaper, but is range-crippled, doesn't have the advantage of Supercharger stations, is tiny, etc.

Prius Eco and Prius start at $24,000. Model S is $69,000. Leaf is $29,000. The Leaf hardly even warrants mentioning; its range and lack of Supercharger access means it's strictly in-town short commute only. Driving 20 miles to work in stop and go traffic with the A/C blasting is simply not an option if you don't have a charging station in your work parking lot.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

They also seem too focused on the sub compact size market.

I've NEVER seen a subcompact car look decent. They are ALL hideous, fugly monstrosities. They are forced to alter the sedan body style because it looks too much like a scrunched up toy at those dimensions, but the boxy utilitarian econobox style is just too ugly to live with for my tastes.

the model is a VERY large car. The model 3 will suposedly be about 20% smaller which should put it in the ballpark of a reasonable midsize sedan, a step above compact size, but not quite as large as the model s / bmw 7 series. More like a 3 series.


At that size, they can still design the car to look sexy and sleek and attractive. NO other pure electric car maker seems to want to pay attention to those sizes.


The compact market is HUGE, the midsize sedan market is HUGE, and ONLY tesla is trying to target it?

It's kind of ridiculous.

Thing is, the econobox cars are the easiest to keep the weight down on. That, in and of itself, contributes directly to being able to use lighter, less powerful electric motors to drive the car, maximizing battery lifetime.

If they tried to do the same thing for a hybrid, the weight differential, as well as the heavier motors needed to drive it properly, would eat into batttery lifetime. And such cars aren't so much bigger than econoboxes that increased battery size could offset the capacity reduction.

Yes, Tesla's doing it with full EV rides that are more or less engineered from the ground up. Whereas most hybrids are essentially kitbashed gas guzzlers. But I'm suspicious that Tesla's approach may already be close to the limits of what can be done with current battery tech. Meaning the line is almost totally dependant on advances in battery technology for future improvement...

 

[Spewn]

As far as overall cost winner, It has been pointed out numerous times, that most people don't simply choose the absolute cheapest car that can get them from point A to point B. In fact almost no one does.

What does that have to do with anything? We're not talking about a small difference here, and we're also not talking about a luxury vehicle like a high-end Tesla. The Leaf is an electric Versa, and the Versa is very much an econobox. Nobody chooses a Versa over a $30,000 car because they just like the Versa more, they choose it because it costs less. The price difference between the two is gigantic, so it's really not about "absolute cheapest" but in the case of Leaf vs Versa it's about "not spending literally twice as much money initially".

 

[Snowdog]

The Mazda 2 is $5 per 100 miles, the Model S is $4.92. That's ICE-only. The Prius is $3.55.

Speaking of disingenuous. Comparing a tiny subcompact to big luxury sedan is your idea of a fair comparison.

Trying comparing the Tesla to something in its class. The Leaf is a much more fair comparison.

BTW you can't buy a Mazda 2 in the USA. Mazda decided not to bring it in.

 

[Snowdog]

What does that have to do with anything? We're not talking about a small difference here, and we're also not talking about a luxury vehicle like a high-end Tesla. The Leaf is an electric Versa, and the Versa is very much an econobox. Nobody chooses a Versa over a $30,000 car because they just like the Versa more, they choose it because it costs less. The price difference between the two is gigantic, so it's really not about "absolute cheapest" but in the case of Leaf vs Versa it's about "not spending literally twice as much money initially".

And lots of People chose the Leaf over the Versa, despite it costing more.

Cheapest is actually far down the list for most people. If it wasn't almost everyone would be driving a Versa.

99% of people chose something more expensive than a versa, even if the Versa will do the job.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

Honestly, who cares what it looks like for a daily driver to and from work - give me maximum miles possible - function over form all the way. 1% more fuel / battery economy by changing body design? Sign me up! Honestly, I'll buy a Prius of some form or even a Smart Car for my daily driver if the old 99 Taurus ever stops working.

If I didn't have to haul stuff to, from and at conventions, I'd probably look at something like a Prius.

Then again, maybe not. I only have to be in the office 1 day a week. The rest I telecommute. Not sure my gas costs would be offset greatly enough to warrant the extra cost of such a vehicle. Also, when I drive, I drive to GO someplace. I don't drive along watching the scenery. And riding in a car with someone trying to hypermile drives me insane...(okay, insaneER). So I'm never EVER going to get maximum value out of such a car.

I put approximately 4000 miles on a vehicle in a year. 1/4th of it is in in 2 trips. And the cost savings of hybrids and EVs are predicated on 10-12K a year.

 

[kumquat]

Speaking of disingenuous. Comparing a tiny subcompact to big luxury sedan is your idea of a fair comparison.

Trying comparing the Tesla to something in its class. The Leaf is a much more fair comparison.

BTW you can't buy a Mazda 2 in the USA. Mazda decided not to bring it in.

Really? That's odd, there are two that park in my apartment's lot every day.

Still, I've compared everything to everything, more or less. Among the Prius, Model S, and Leaf the Prius wins big in literally every category besides luxury.

You can get an ICE-only car that is slightly more expensive per mile but is much cheaper up-front but wins big on up-front cost, range, charging time, etc.

The Leaf, since that's basically the only remotely reasonable non-luxury EV in existence right now, doesn't compete with the Prius on any front unless gas prices go up by a factor of 3, and you still have the charging problem.

This is why EVs are not more popular. Buying an EV with the intention of using it as something other than a toy or in-town-commuting-only is dumb

 

[Spewn]

And lots of People chose the Leaf over the Versa, despite it costing more.

I'll ask again - what does that have to do with anything? People are saying EV's cost too much. That others will choose to pay that extra cost doesn't somehow make the Leaf cheaper to own.

You seem to think I'm arguing against electric cars as a concept, or in principle or something. I'm not. I'm simply making the case for EV's not being the economical option, and right now they're very clearly not.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

I think it's funny to read all these replies from people who vilify all electric cars because they don't meet their own arbitrary requirements.

What makes you think our requirements are "arbitrary"? Or even abnormal?

And most of the people here who're downplaying hybrids and EVs are already saying that it doesn't work "for them", while still realizing that, for some people, they can/do work.

 

[kumquat]

And lots of People chose the Leaf over the Versa, despite it costing more.

Cheapest is actually far down the list for most people. If it wasn't almost everyone would be driving a Versa.

99% of people chose something more expensive than a versa, even if the Versa will do the job.

December 2015 sales:

Leaf 1,054
Versa 11,058

 

[Snowdog]

Really? That's odd, there are two that park in my apartment's lot every day.

You could get the old one with crappy gas mileage. You can't get the new one you are talking about, check:


No 2 for You! U.S. Won’t Get New Mazda 2 Subcompact
http://www.mazdausa.com/MusaWeb/displayHomepage.action

Also where do you keep getting your numbers. Here is the Model S, to the Mazda 2 you can't buy.

You showed the Mazda 2 being less expensive to fuel. EPA shows the opposite:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37233&id=36128

 

[kumquat]

You could get the old one with crappy gas mileage. You can't get the new one you are talking about, check:


No 2 for You! U.S. Won’t Get New Mazda 2 Subcompact
http://www.mazdausa.com/MusaWeb/displayHomepage.action

Also where do you keep getting your numbers. Here is the Model S, to the Mazda 2 you can't buy.

You showed the Mazda 2 being less expensive to fuel. EPA shows the opposite:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37233&id=36128

Current average US gas price is under $1.85. That site appears to be using $1.998.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

"Slight."

I'm not sure where you live or who you hang out with, but I never see that sort of behavior. Maybe on the occasional Reddit thread or something.

I hired an enviro-douche a couple years ago. His credentials were excellent, his references were glowing, and his initial interview didn't hint at any personality defects that'd disqualify him as a candidate.

The first couple weeks were the usual for polite awkwardness of a new employee.

Then, about a month in, he got "comfortable", and we started to see the real him.

Haranguing co-workers, haranguing me, and generally making a nuisance of himself.

His work was generally fine. But he made the atmosphere at the office almost unbearably toxic, and interacting with him was always a chore.

I had several sit-down discussions with him to try and correct the behavior. Each successively more firm and less polite than the last.

I was trying to avoid firing him for a little longer because we were mid-project on something and, frankly, I detest the hiring process.

But the company owners took it out of my hands after this dumbass took it upon himself to try and dress one of them down for driving a XTerra (a shitty little 2WD 4-banger manual). She just smiled and drove away. Then she e-mailed me to notify me that the next day was his last day.

Just thinking about this asshole again gets my hackles up.

On a positive note, while enviro-douche's replacement wasn't anywhere near as well qualified, they were very receptive to training, tend to keep their opinions to themselves and has more interest in just getting shit done than saving the environment. As such, he's been happily employed here for 8 years.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

Some does not equal all. You may be able to cherry pick some examples, but again, on average (for the majority) fueling and EV would be cheaper:

Comparing a Nissan Leaf/Versa:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37066&id=36570

Leaf is a lot cheaper to Fuel for the average American.

Okay you save about $2000 in fuel costs over 5 years.

Yep. And you pay an extra 12-18 grand up front (plus interest on your loan).

Plus they're figuring cost savings at 15K miles a year.
For me, I rack up just over 1/4th that.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

I think it would be money better spent*.

I also wonder if the range anxiety issues are a moot point in an Uber/rideshare + driverless cars world.

Honestly, that's like looking for fusion energy.

It's something that's going to perpetually be "about 10 years away".

 

[Deleted member 126051]

But you can't plug in your ICE car at home and have the tank be full every time you leave the house. How many of those 1100 miles require an entire tank drain and fill on-the-road?

For me that's actually an issue because I have to travel multiple states for work, but for an average commuter that is not an argument.

A fill up on a 15 gallon tank takes under 5 minutes. And most people live within a mile or two of a gas station. So if you fill before going home at night, you essentially still have a full tank in the morning. If you fill on your way out, you have a full tank and are only dinged 5 minutes.

Even playing it safe and filling at the quarter tank mark.

1100 miles.

5 minutes
300 miles
5 minutes
300 miles
5 minutes
300 miles
5 minutes
200 miles.

So, at the end of an 1100 mile trip, you've burned 20 minutes "gassing up".

Now let's look at an EV with an optimal trip where you find a charging station everywhere you need to.

300 miles
30 minutes
240 miles
30 minutes
240 miles
30 minutes
240 miles
30 minutes
80 miles

So at the end of an 1100 mile trip, you've burned 2 hours "gassing up".

Even if you happen to have a Tesla Battery Swap station at every stop along the way. You're still stopping for over an hour total.

 

[tybert7]

I don't think anyone said a regular car is cheaper to run per mile. Most hybrids are cheaper per mile than the Leaf and much cheaper per mile than a Model S or X. A lot of ICE cars get close.

Of course, they get close in per-mile costs, but win outright in up-front cost.

They also win outright, by a huge margin, in range and charging times.

No, most people don't choose the cheapest car they can find. They choose the best car that they can fit within their budget. "Best" varies quite a bit, but convenience, power, efficiency, options, and cool factor all play into it.

Even in california, with higher energy rates, you can get the electric charging cost to around 10 cents per kwh during off peak times, and it makes more sense to do solar here as well where excess energy can be used to power your car. As for fast charging during off peak times, I think eventually battery storage of some sort will allow bursts of power charging stored and saved up during off peak rate times. In fact, it kind of makes sense to use such power more often during peak times as our kwh rates go above 30 cents per kwh for large chunks of the day.

Further, I think we all know that at the moment, the pure economic argument is not there yet for electric cars, the point is that eventually, it will be, the march towards cheaper batteries steams along.


But once cost is closer to parity, you will have a combination of cheaper fuel costs, lower maintenance costs (tires and MUCH rarer use of brakes), and more power/torque due to the way electrics work.

They have inherent superiority in terms of driving dynamics and in the case of tesla and the battery arrangement, safety. Like getting t-boned.


Elon talks about his differential vision about his vision for electric cars vs other players.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UosLERkvjoU

Note what came up. Performance, range, finish, aesthetics.

the bolt will add some range, but still lags on aesthetics and finish and performance vs a typical tesla. It remains to be seen how the model 3 will stack up, but seeing what Elon values I have hopes that their first lower priced electric car will create something with more generalized appeal.

Remember what snowdog said earlier, one of his buddies and wife were considering a leaf, but were so put off by how incalculably UGLY it was. They were willing to make the range sacrifice for a city car, but the looks of that car were too depressing to stomach. These things actually matter to many people, even if some don't give a damn.

 

[kumquat]

Wait, tires? Why tires? If anything, I'd expect EVs to go through tires more quickly than other vehicles due largely to weight. The Leaf weighs 1,000 lbs more than a Versa, for instance.

 

[tybert7]

Current average US gas price is under $1.85. That site appears to be using $1.998.

In California gas prices are around 3 dollars a gallon. Limited refining capacity coupled with mandates that California use some cleaner blend and higher gas taxes means we will always be more hosed than other parts of the nation.

 

[kumquat]

A fill up on a 15 gallon tank takes under 5 minutes. And most people live within a mile or two of a gas station. So if you fill before going home at night, you essentially still have a full tank in the morning. If you fill on your way out, you have a full tank and are only dinged 5 minutes.

Even playing it safe and filling at the quarter tank mark.

1100 miles.

5 minutes
300 miles
5 minutes
300 miles
5 minutes
300 miles
5 minutes
200 miles.

So, at the end of an 1100 mile trip, you've burned 20 minutes "gassing up".

Now let's look at an EV with an optimal trip where you find a charging station everywhere you need to.

300 miles
30 minutes
240 miles
30 minutes
240 miles
30 minutes
240 miles
30 minutes
80 miles

So at the end of an 1100 mile trip, you've burned 2 hours "gassing up".

Even if you happen to have a Tesla Battery Swap station at every stop along the way. You're still stopping for over an hour total.

And that schedule is with a Tesla only, and assuming you're traveling along one of the Supercharger Routes, which is a big if.

Imagine doing that in a Leaf.