Electric Vehicle Sales Fall Far Short Of White House Goal

[tybert7]

Honestly, who cares what it looks like for a daily driver to and from work - give me maximum miles possible - function over form all the way. 1% more fuel / battery economy by changing body design? Sign me up! Honestly, I'll buy a Prius of some form or even a Smart Car for my daily driver if the old 99 Taurus ever stops working.

PLENTY of people care what a car looks like as a daily driver. That is what you will use most often. Do people really take out a fancier looking car to flaunt in front of others vs their normal car? Really?

The primary car is where MOST of your wants ought to go because it is the most used.


What you advocate saddens me, because you are not alone, in fact, you are legion.

Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of people where beauty in cars is seen s secondary. This has a very specific result. It DIMINISHES the level of beauty we see in the world, and worse, it actually INCREASES the sights of ugliness where people choose pure function over form.


This is a dark and hideous world you desire and are actively creating with such preferences.

I don't want to live in a world where the nissan leaf is the visage that fills my gaze across the roads of California.

 

[tybert7]

Have you seen Tesla's new SUV they are beginning to market, it's huge, seats seven in bucket style seating. I can't say how comfy it is, but my wife wouldn't like it. She likes to crawl in the back on trips, lays down and sleeps.

It's a damn heavy vehicle, almost 5,500 lbs.

Tesla is the exception. They are the only ones doing a sedan that is larger than a golf cart, and the model 3 will be a more midsize sedan size (probably towards the larger end of that segment).

 

[Dekoth-E-]

Some does not equal all. You may be able to cherry pick some examples, but again, on average (for the majority) fueling and EV would be cheaper:

Comparing a Nissan Leaf/Versa:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37066&id=36570

Leaf is a lot cheaper to Fuel for the average American.

What that graph fails to take into account is not the miles but the actual time. Living in atlanta for many years I can tell you that commute is also about 2+ hours one way. Sorry but a cheap used leave isn't going to make it 12.8 miles of constantly running in atlanta heat with the AC going and sorry but no AC isn't an option in mid to high 90's with 80% humidity. Numbers don't tell the entire picture.

 

[Endgame]

PLENTY of people care what a car looks like as a daily driver. That is what you will use most often. Do people really take out a fancier looking car to flaunt in front of others vs their normal car? Really?

I know plenty of people that have a Corvette, Camaro, or even a Mustang that doesn't get driven weekdays to work, or driven at all in winter. I don't do this because, honestly, for the ~22 miles / week I drive, I don't really care WHAT I drive and I have 1000 other things I'd rather spend my money on than a car (Like, say, a shiny new Skylake -E or SLI Titan X). Ideally I would prefer to drive something that gets better mileage that the Taurus, but the payoff just isn't there for that few miles per week.

I don't want to live in a world where the nissan leaf is the visage that fills my gaze across the roads of California.

Drive less, then you don't have to see anything on the road? Give me something super small for navigating the DC metro area for when I can't take the Metro itself. Give me the 100% most efficient variant of that possible, and throw in a few safety features and call it a day. If I really feel the urge to go cruising, and I have money falling out of my pockets, I might go look into getting a Camaro, but... probably not.

 

[Verge]

"A lot" cheaper?

30 kWh per 100 miles is 9 kWh per 30 miles (1 gallon of gas for the Versa). At 16 cents per kWh, that's $1.44 plus efficiency losses to give $1.80. Gas is $1.90.

The Leaf costs $12,000 more than the Versa.

At current gas prices, you'd need to drive 120,000 miles to break even. That's about 10 years for most drivers.

The batteries won't last 10 years. Now add in the cost to replace the batteries once. Another $5,000? That's another 50,000 miles to break even.

Add the inconvenience on top of that, and.....

And that's in a junk ass Verse. Prius will actually SAVE money over a leaf using GASOLINE!


Gasp!!! Say it ain't so.

 

[nilepez]

What that graph fails to take into account is not the miles but the actual time. Living in atlanta for many years I can tell you that commute is also about 2+ hours one way. Sorry but a cheap used leave isn't going to make it 12.8 miles of constantly running in atlanta heat with the AC going and sorry but no AC isn't an option in mid to high 90's with 80% humidity. Numbers don't tell the entire picture.

When I looked yesterday, the Leaf was supposed to get up to 100 miles on a charge. Now I don't know how it does with the AC running, so you may still be right. Also, some companies have charging stations, so you could charge while at work.

 

[tybert7]

I know plenty of people that have a Corvette, Camaro, or even a Mustang that doesn't get driven weekdays to work, or driven at all in winter. I don't do this because, honestly, for the ~22 miles / week I drive, I don't really care WHAT I drive and I have 1000 other things I'd rather spend my money on than a car (Like, say, a shiny new Skylake -E or SLI Titan X). Ideally I would prefer to drive something that gets better mileage that the Taurus, but the payoff just isn't there for that few miles per week.


Drive less, then you don't have to see anything on the road? Give me something super small for navigating the DC metro area for when I can't take the Metro itself. Give me the 100% most efficient variant of that possible, and throw in a few safety features and call it a day. If I really feel the urge to go cruising, and I have money falling out of my pockets, I might go look into getting a Camaro, but... probably not.

Remember, these need not be binary choices.


If a model 3 tesla looks stunning, and has 1-3% less efficiency than some econobox for similar money with the latter looking like a shoe box with insectoid/alien features like the nissan leafs bulbous frog eyes... would you really take the econobox?

Does beauty mean NOTHING to you and others? Why do you desire a world filled with such ugliness and despair? Do you choose mates this way?

I honestly do not understand the minds of such people. I get it if that extra percent makes the difference between success and failure, that is what drives spacex to focus on every scrap of efficiency to allow for re-usability, but for a car?

 

[TwistedAegis]

EVs aren't there yet vs ICE, but they're making strides. I like what Tesla is doing, letting rich early adopters improve the tech for everyone else.

I don't mind the EV subsidies, but I think it might be money spent directly on research on better energy storage technology, batteries or whatever else we may come up with. Electrifying our transportation networks, and nuclear power combined with as much renewable energy as possible is the way to a sustainable future, IMO.

 

[TwistedAegis]

I think it would be money better spent*.

I also wonder if the range anxiety issues are a moot point in an Uber/rideshare + driverless cars world.

 

[Snowdog]

What that graph fails to take into account is not the miles but the actual time. Living in atlanta for many years I can tell you that commute is also about 2+ hours one way. Sorry but a cheap used leave isn't going to make it 12.8 miles of constantly running in atlanta heat with the AC going and sorry but no AC isn't an option in mid to high 90's with 80% humidity. Numbers don't tell the entire picture.

The nonsense always escalates in these threads. 4+ hours commuting is now the norm?

 

[/usr/sbin]

Remember, these need not be binary choices.


If a model 3 tesla looks stunning, and has 1-3% less efficiency than some econobox for similar money with the latter looking like a shoe box with insectoid/alien features like the nissan leafs bulbous frog eyes... would you really take the econobox?

Does beauty mean NOTHING to you and others? Why do you desire a world filled with such ugliness and despair? Do you choose mates this way?

I honestly do not understand the minds of such people. I get it if that extra percent makes the difference between success and failure, that is what drives spacex to focus on every scrap of efficiency to allow for re-usability, but for a car?

If it's a weekend cruiser then yeah style and comfort matter. Most "normal" people don't have that. We are looking for maximum reliability and TCO - style is second place.

 

[Dekoth-E-]

When I looked yesterday, the Leaf was supposed to get up to 100 miles on a charge. Now I don't know how it does with the AC running, so you may still be right. Also, some companies have charging stations, so you could charge while at work.

That is my entire point, "on paper" and "Real world" are two Very different things when it comes to EV's. I mean if I have to drive to work with no radio, sweating my ass off and just barely get there and hope some asshole doesn't park in front of the charging station. Well that isn't particularly useful. Not to mention the very real problem all these "well you just need to get there types" don't get is there are times where an emergency comes up and you have to leave suddenly. So what happens if you get to work with most of your battery drained and it takes he day to charge and you get an emergency that requires you to go home? I've lost count of the times I have that happen over the years. People driving a leaf are shit out of luck and get to take a cab. What is the point of owning a car then? I like EV's, I like the concept of EV's. But this notion that they are mass market ready and are just fine as they are is utterly absurd.

 

[lcpiper]

Some does not equal all. You may be able to cherry pick some examples, but again, on average (for the majority) fueling and EV would be cheaper:

Comparing a Nissan Leaf/Versa:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37066&id=36570

Leaf is a lot cheaper to Fuel for the average American.

https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=5971

The urban areas of the United States for the 2010 Census contain 249,253,271 people, representing 80.7% of the population, and rural areas contain 59,492,276 people, or 19.3% of the population.

http://www.census.gov/geo/reference/urban-rural.html

The Census Bureau’s urban-rural classification is fundamentally a delineation of geographical areas, identifying both individual urban areas and the rural areas of the nation. The Census Bureau’s urban areas represent densely developed territory, and encompass residential, commercial, and other non-residential urban land uses. The Census Bureau delineates urban areas after each decennial census by applying specified criteria to decennial census and other data.

The Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas:

Urbanized Areas (UAs) of 50,000 or more people;
Urban Clusters (UCs) of at least 2,500 and less than 50,000 people.

“Rural” encompasses all population, housing, and territory not included within an urban area.

So as far as the US Census Bureau is concerned, 50K is the definition of an Urban Environment. It gives us something to work with.

The closest city, to where I live, that has more than one EV Charging station is Tucson with 20+ locations for the entire city of 530K people. Tucson is a 70 mile drive from my home. I know people that live there and commute each day, not everyone, but not uncommon either.

Tucson has a population of 530K, where I live, Sierra Vista, has a pop of 43K and only one EV Charging Station in the entire city, it's at the Hampton Inn.

I live in an urban area as does 80% of the US Population. But that doesn't mean 80% of the population lives anywhere near a reasonable distance to an EV charging station or that deployment of Ev Charging Stations would at all satisfy the need if everyone started going plug-in tomorrow.

I dispute your claim. In fact, I would claim that going EV is not even a remotely feasible option yet for most of the country.

Go here and look around the country;

Arizona, Tucson or Phoenix, or forget it.
Nevada, only in Las Vegas and Reno.
Utah, Salt Lake ity and maybe Ogden.
Wyoming, just forget it.
Montana, Boise is it.
North and South Dakota, forget it.
The list continues and it's self defeating to continue it. For a huge part of the country going EV is just not a smart choice. There are certainly parts of the country where it's a real option, but you are way over reaching saying that for the majority it would be cheaper cause the way I see it, it's not even an option for the majority.

 

[lcpiper]

PLENTY of people care what a car looks like as a daily driver. That is what you will use most often. Do people really take out a fancier looking car to flaunt in front of others vs their normal car? Really?

The primary car is where MOST of your wants ought to go because it is the most used.

The Primary car? I have a car, my wife has an SUV, we have no other cars, both are primary cars. I own two homes with no mortgages, put two kids through college, I am not poor. But I don't have money to waste on the idea that I need a daily driver and something special. My Challenger R/T is my daily driver and it's everything else.

I care what my cloths look like.
I care what my hair looks like.
I care what my home looks like.
And I am sure not going to spend over 40K on a car and not care what it looks like.


Still, not everyone is like me. I enjoy driving and I don't want to live somewhere where driving isn't enjoyable. My wife on the other hand doesn't enjoy driving which I suppose is why she drives a Honda Pilot, the utility of it, she feels safe I guess. I don't think she would feel safe in a Leaf.

But the end state is that we are not all alike and for that I am thankful. I just hope that you are willing to leave as much room for me on the road as I am willing to leave for you. I won't try to force you into a Challenger if you won't try to make me give mine up for a Volt. That's the best I can offer.

 

[Snowdog]

https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=5971

[snipped wall of pointless text]

Exactly how does any of that, remotely relate to my post you were quoting?

My post was about the cost of fueling with electricity vs gasoline.

Someone claimed that it was cheaper to fuel with gasoline, and linked the site which shows fueling costs based on current gas/electricity costs, demonstrating that it is still cheaper to fuel with electricity, even at current low gas prices.

Did you quote the wrong post?

 

[Spewn]

"A lot" cheaper?

30 kWh per 100 miles is 9 kWh per 30 miles (1 gallon of gas for the Versa). At 16 cents per kWh, that's $1.44 plus efficiency losses to give $1.80. Gas is $1.90.

The Leaf costs $12,000 more than the Versa.

At current gas prices, you'd need to drive 120,000 miles to break even. That's about 10 years for most drivers.

That doesn't look right. Isn't that $1.80 per 30 miles and $1.90 per 30 miles? It's not like you get 1mpg in a Versa. So shouldn't you multiply that 120,000 figure by 30?

 

[kumquat]

That doesn't look right. Isn't that $1.80 per 30 miles and $1.90 per 30 miles? It's not like you get 1mpg in a Versa. So shouldn't you multiply that 120,000 figure by 30?

Yes. Yes, I should.

 

[Uvaman2]

The one thing I don't get about people attacking electrics is charge time... So you drive 4hours 300 miles.. Half hour charge time, too much ( if that becomes some kind of norm let's say)... No gotta get back to the exciting task of driving for hours in 3 minutes. Half hour is not a long time by any standard.
People life is short, sometimes you gotta stop look and talk to your dick or something.. half an hour goes fast doing that or looking out the window if the view is better.
Electrics are inevitable. Even if they have half hour charging times forever. Range is about battery size.. that I do get.

 

[tybert7]

The Primary car? I have a car, my wife has an SUV, we have no other cars, both are primary cars. I own two homes with no mortgages, put two kids through college, I am not poor. But I don't have money to waste on the idea that I need a daily driver and something special. My Challenger R/T is my daily driver and it's everything else.

I care what my cloths look like.
I care what my hair looks like.
I care what my home looks like.
And I am sure not going to spend over 40K on a car and not care what it looks like.


Still, not everyone is like me. I enjoy driving and I don't want to live somewhere where driving isn't enjoyable. My wife on the other hand doesn't enjoy driving which I suppose is why she drives a Honda Pilot, the utility of it, she feels safe I guess. I don't think she would feel safe in a Leaf.

But the end state is that we are not all alike and for that I am thankful. I just hope that you are willing to leave as much room for me on the road as I am willing to leave for you. I won't try to force you into a Challenger if you won't try to make me give mine up for a Volt. That's the best I can offer.

Most people are not going to spend over 40k on a car, and I don't want them to. I want the compact/midsize size/cost cars to eventually have electric variants or electrics in that class that don't look like ass. That's it and that's all.

We are definitely not there yet, I don't even think 35k-37k will get us there (the presumed entry cost of the tesla model 3 and the bolt before any incentives), but eventually we WILL be there and when we do arrive I want us to have better looking options.

My primary concern over better looking cars is not to FORCE others to drive what I want to drive, it's more about having my preferences do well enough in the market to get others to cater to those.

I think one of the biggest reasons we are getting so many econobox looking electric cars, aside from pure function, is the success of pure function cars like the prius. And because of the success of that car line, there is this presumption that that style is what people really go for.

To an extent they are right, most people don't seem to care that the prius looks like an egg on wheels. But if the perception and/or reality is that that style of car is what ought to be attached to electric cars, we will get less electrics I consider attractive.


It's like the the examples of the toyota corolla, honda civic, and madza 3.

Out of those 3 cars, they are all in the compact class and of a similar general cost, but the best looking of the lot, by FAR, is the mazda 3. It does not HAVE to be a limited aesthetic choice of plain looking compact cars because at least mazda offers something better looking. But if the only thing people say they care about when it comes to cars is utility, like you and your wife, we will get more ugliness in the world. And it need not be that way, you can have your utility and something a little more beautiful in the world, unless people just give up and stop caring.

 

[lcpiper]

[snipped wall of pointless text]

Exactly how does any of that, remotely relate to my post you were quoting?

My post was about the cost of fueling with electricity vs gasoline.

Someone claimed that it was cheaper to fuel with gasoline, and linked the site which shows fueling costs based on current gas/electricity costs, demonstrating that it is still cheaper to fuel with electricity, even at current low gas prices.

Did you quote the wrong post?

Originally Posted by Snowdog View Post
Some does not equal all. You may be able to cherry pick some examples, but again, on average (for the majority) fueling and EV would be cheaper:

For the majority, and my point was ....

I dispute your claim. In fact, I would claim that going EV is not even a remotely feasible option yet for most of the country.

All useless walls of text aside since they didn't support my claim in any way

 

[lcpiper]

Most people are not going to spend over 40k on a car, .. .

Since most cars don't cost over 40K I agree. Then again, more then enough cars sell for that and much more so the market is there right?

What does "most" have to do with any of it? There are all kinds of people that want all kinds of things and fortunately something doesn't have to be desired by "the most" in order to be enough for a market.

Where I would focus your thoughts is on the fact that auto manufacturers and clothing designers and many others place enough value in aesthetics that it's safe to say that looks matter enough to spend money making things that look good. Looks are not enough to sell a lemon as a diamond, but if you are the one shopping for diamonds, the looks might determine who's diamond you buy.

 

[SLee]

The one thing I don't get about people attacking electrics is charge time... So you drive 4hours 300 miles.. Half hour charge time, too much ( if that becomes some kind of norm let's say)... No gotta get back to the exciting task of driving for hours in 3 minutes. Half hour is not a long time by any standard..

Supercharging for half an hour gets you about 150 miles on a 85 kwh Model S.

http://insideevs.com/supercharging-tesla-model-s-60-kwh-versus-85-kwh-video-graphs/

 

[Snowdog]

For the majority, and my point was ....

All useless walls of text aside since they didn't support my claim in any way

They are pointless because you apparently suffer from epic reading comprehension problems.

My post was only about the cost of gas, and the cost of electricity.

Your personal diatribe is unrelated to that.

Even as a separate self contained topic, your diatribe is total nonsense. You quote census statistics and then interpose your personal anecdote, and then claim, that your personal situation applies to majority because, apparently quoting census statistics in the same post, means you anecdote applies to all your selected group. So epic logic failure as well.

 

[Dekoth-E-]

The one thing I don't get about people attacking electrics is charge time... So you drive 4hours 300 miles.. Half hour charge time, too much ( if that becomes some kind of norm let's say)... No gotta get back to the exciting task of driving for hours in 3 minutes. Half hour is not a long time by any standard.
People life is short, sometimes you gotta stop look and talk to your dick or something.. half an hour goes fast doing that or looking out the window if the view is better.
Electrics are inevitable. Even if they have half hour charging times forever. Range is about battery size.. that I do get.

Some of us spend quite a bit of time in our cars, actually given commutes, most of us do. That thirty minutes you so casually dismiss quickly turns into hours lost every week. I happen to value my non working time and would rather not waste it with a short range car. As I said, if they started pushing 350-1000 mile ranges, then and only then does charge time not matter.

 

[nilepez]

That is my entire point, "on paper" and "Real world" are two Very different things when it comes to EV's. I mean if I have to drive to work with no radio, sweating my ass off and just barely get there and hope some asshole doesn't park in front of the charging station. Well that isn't particularly useful. Not to mention the very real problem all these "well you just need to get there types" don't get is there are times where an emergency comes up and you have to leave suddenly. So what happens if you get to work with most of your battery drained and it takes he day to charge and you get an emergency that requires you to go home? I've lost count of the times I have that happen over the years. People driving a leaf are shit out of luck and get to take a cab. What is the point of owning a car then? I like EV's, I like the concept of EV's. But this notion that they are mass market ready and are just fine as they are is utterly absurd.

Can you point to the study that shows that you wouldn't make it there and back under those conditions?

 

[nilepez]

Sierra Vista, has a pop of 43K and only one EV Charging Station in the entire city, it's at the Hampton Inn.

I live in an urban area as does 80% of the US Population. But that doesn't mean 80% of the population lives anywhere near a reasonable distance to an EV charging station or that deployment of Ev Charging Stations would at all satisfy the need if everyone started going plug-in tomorrow.

I dispute your claim. In fact, I would claim that going EV is not even a remotely feasible option yet for most of the country.

Go here and look around the country;

Arizona, Tucson or Phoenix, or forget it.
Nevada, only in Las Vegas and Reno.
Utah, Salt Lake ity and maybe Ogden.
Wyoming, just forget it.
Montana, Boise is it.
North and South Dakota, forget it.
The list continues and it's self defeating to continue it. For a huge part of the country going EV is just not a smart choice. There are certainly parts of the country where it's a real option, but you are way over reaching saying that for the majority it would be cheaper cause the way I see it, it's not even an option for the majority.

I think if you buy an electric car, you charge it at home, so the lack of a charging station locally isn't a deal breaker, IMO, for local driving.

There's not a convenient charging station for me either, but if I wanted a car to drive around DFW, electric could work. Of course people in apartments are SOL.

I'm not sure about some of the states you're looking at. Tesla has a bunch of superchargers in NV and the same goes for AZ (esp the northern parts) and Utah.

 

[Sufu]

Some of us spend quite a bit of time in our cars, actually given commutes, most of us do. That thirty minutes you so casually dismiss quickly turns into hours lost every week. I happen to value my non working time and would rather not waste it with a short range car. As I said, if they started pushing 350-1000 mile ranges, then and only then does charge time not matter.

If you had an electric car, you would not charge it for 30min every other day or however long it takes to drain the battery. You are stuck thinking like ICE cars. No, you charge at home every night after you finish your daily commute. Get up in the morning, full charge, 200+ miles. What we are referring to is for road trips away from home - drive 3hours, stop at a rest stop, and while you do your thing the car charges.

I would not want to charge for 30min every time I run down the battery - that's not practical at all, and also frowned upon if you do this via superchargers. I charge 80%, which gives me around 240 miles of range, then commute to/from work and run whatever errands I need. Once I get home, I plug the car in, and it charges overnight. Worst case for me is maybe 2 hours to charge on a busy day - 4 hours if the battery was depleted.

In these scenarios, you are not "sitting" anywhere except on your lazyboy at home.

 

[ep0x73]

EV cars work better in say NYC with short commutes and they certainly would cut down on smog but are not as practically for rural areas.
The white house also had some lofty goals that were basically unrealistic.

 

[kumquat]

Supercharging for half an hour gets you about 150 miles on a 85 kwh Model S.

http://insideevs.com/supercharging-tesla-model-s-60-kwh-versus-85-kwh-video-graphs/

Fueling up for 3 minutes gets 350 miles on my Subaru. And I never have to drive 25 miles out of the way to find a gas station. This fall I'll probably be driving 1100 miles in my car.

I love the idea of electrics. I'd love to have an electric as a second vehicle. The battery and infrastructure technology and capacity are not ready for them to replace most ICE vehicles.

 

[jamsomito]

Fueling up for 3 minutes gets 350 miles on my Subaru. And I never have to drive 25 miles out of the way to find a gas station. This fall I'll probably be driving 1100 miles in my car.

I love the idea of electrics. I'd love to have an electric as a second vehicle. The battery and infrastructure technology and capacity are not ready for them to replace most ICE vehicles.

But you can't plug in your ICE car at home and have the tank be full every time you leave the house. How many of those 1100 miles require an entire tank drain and fill on-the-road?

For me that's actually an issue because I have to travel multiple states for work, but for an average commuter that is not an argument.

 

[jamsomito]

If you had an electric car, you would not charge it for 30min every other day or however long it takes to drain the battery. You are stuck thinking like ICE cars. No, you charge at home every night after you finish your daily commute. Get up in the morning, full charge, 200+ miles. What we are referring to is for road trips away from home - drive 3hours, stop at a rest stop, and while you do your thing the car charges.

I would not want to charge for 30min every time I run down the battery - that's not practical at all, and also frowned upon if you do this via superchargers. I charge 80%, which gives me around 240 miles of range, then commute to/from work and run whatever errands I need. Once I get home, I plug the car in, and it charges overnight. Worst case for me is maybe 2 hours to charge on a busy day - 4 hours if the battery was depleted.

In these scenarios, you are not "sitting" anywhere except on your lazyboy at home.

Yep, all of this, sufu. And even if you have to run errands after eating dinner at home, there is still charge left in the car, it's not like it's going to strand you anywhere. Plus, if you *only* charge while you're sleeping, which would be a minimum of around 6 hours for an average person (even if you sleep less, you still are home longer getting ready for the day, etc), you'd still have a full charge in the morning.

 

[kumquat]

But you can't plug in your ICE car at home and have the tank be full every time you leave the house. How many of those 1100 miles require an entire tank drain and fill on-the-road?

I have no idea what your question means. I'd have to stop for gas 3 or 4 times.

For me that's actually an issue because I have to travel multiple states for work, but for an average commuter that is not an argument.

For an average commuter on an average commute, it's not an issue. It's an issue when they go out and the car hasn't actually charged for some reason. Or they are driving the kids to the lake this weekend, and there are no chargers there or on the way. Or it's 3 degrees outside so they have to have the heater blasting and the batteries are super frigid and they have to drive to work, where there's no charger, and then run a bunch of errands all over town afterward and there's no convenient Supercharger. Or they're going to the cabin in the mountains to go skiing.

Yes, an EV would be fine most of the time for most people. But it couldn't be the only vehicle for most people.

And the economic argument isn't even there. With the price of gas under $2, EVs cost just as much if not more to operate per-mile. They cost $10,000 more than generally-equivalent gasoline cars. They cost about the same as hybrids, which absolutely destroy them in cost per mile right now. Then you have the back-loaded cost of battery replacement in 5-8 years.

The people for whom an EV as a primary vehicle is a better choice than ICE are basically nonexistent, and there's no argument in terms of economics or practicality for an EV as a second vehicle.

 

[jamsomito]

I have no idea what your question means. I'd have to stop for gas 3 or 4 times.

I'm saying, how many of those 1100 miles are constituted by a trip of 350 miles or more that require you to fill up on the road? "Fall" is ~90 days, and for that amount, you're talking a piddly average of 12mi per day. Any EV can handle that. I'm saying you might have to stop for gas once a month, but if you plug in every night, you never have to stop anywhere, and it won't die on you during your average use.

For an average commuter on an average commute, it's not an issue. It's an issue when they go out and the car hasn't actually charged for some reason.

Could be an issue. But for something like a Tesla, even if you miss a night, you could still drive multiple days without a charge.

Or they are driving the kids to the lake this weekend, and there are no chargers there or on the way. Or it's 3 degrees outside so they have to have the heater blasting and the batteries are super frigid and they have to drive to work, where there's no charger, and then run a bunch of errands all over town afterward and there's no convenient Supercharger. Or they're going to the cabin in the mountains to go skiing.

You could arguably make that same trip to a remote lake without seeing a gas station, so equal planning would be required. On cold weather days, users report about a 7% hit to the range of the vehicle... on a 250 mile range Tesla, that's still 230 miles. A regular commute plus "running a bunch of errands all over town" is not 230 miles. If it is, that's a significant trip you probably would have planned for. "What if" statements don't make good arguments - you're just trying to find ways it won't work, but in all the cases you're mentioning, it would substitute the same as a conventional fuel vehicle.

Yes, an EV would be fine most of the time for most people. But it couldn't be the only vehicle for most people.

You're jumping to conclusions based on your own bad arguments. Better or worse is subjective, but it certainly could be the only vehicle for most people. The worst case scenario introduces a slight inconvenience to someone, but you could also argue that the rarity of that happening would still be better than having to spend your 3min at the gas pump every other week (or more) for as long as you're driving.

And the economic argument isn't even there. With the price of gas under $2, EVs cost just as much if not more to operate per-mile. They cost $10,000 more than generally-equivalent gasoline cars. They cost about the same as hybrids, which absolutely destroy them in cost per mile right now. Then you have the back-loaded cost of battery replacement in 5-8 years.

You're right that they make less sense when gasoline is cheaper, but then there's the life cycle environmental impact of them. EV's have less maintenance costs than ICE cars (brakes, oil changes, transmission fluids, other transmission and engine repairs - before you poo poo that, add it up, it's not cheap) and that, in my experience, would cover the cost of a new battery in an EV, so that's a wash. You're also right that they cost more, but that is changing very quickly. Gas will not be cheap for long either.

The people for whom an EV as a primary vehicle is a better choice than ICE are basically nonexistent, and there's no argument in terms of economics or practicality for an EV as a second vehicle.

STRONGLY disagree. I used to think the same way you do, but through my own research I've found that it is simply not the case.

 

[jamsomito]

On cold weather days, users report about a 7% hit to the range of the vehicle... on a 250 mile range Tesla, that's still 230 miles.

found that here, FWIW

https://my.teslamotors.com/it_CH/forum/forums/climateheating-system-cold-weather

 

[Snowdog]

For an average commuter on an average commute, it's not an issue. It's an issue when they go out and the car hasn't actually charged for some reason. Or they are driving the kids to the lake this weekend, and there are no chargers there or on the way. Or it's 3 degrees outside so they have to have the heater blasting and the batteries are super frigid and they have to drive to work, where there's no charger, and then run a bunch of errands all over town afterward and there's no convenient Supercharger. Or they're going to the cabin in the mountains to go skiing.

And in a Zombie apocalypse, the grid goes down and EV owners will have their juicy brains eaten.

Now that the FUD section is over...

Yes, an EV would be fine most of the time for most people. But it couldn't be the only vehicle for most people.

And they don't have to be the only vehicle for most people. Most US household are multi-vehicle. Many are likely a SUV and a commuter car. An EV can replace the commuter car in very significant portion of those driveways.

This is not an all or nothing game. EVs don't have to sell to every person on earth to be a success. Regular Hybrids only sell to something like 3% of the population and they are a success for leading hybrid companies like Toyota.

How many people could swap one of their household cars for a 100 mile range EV? 10%? 20%? Maybe more?

This is the Infancy of EVs, They don't have to work for everyone out of the gate, they just need a niche to keep growing in.

And the economic argument isn't even there. With the price of gas under $2, EVs cost just as much if not more to operate per-mile. They cost $10,000 more than generally-equivalent gasoline cars. They cost about the same as hybrids, which absolutely destroy them in cost per mile right now.

If by cost/mile, you mean fuel cost, then no gas cars aren't equal and hybrids don't "destroy" them.

This link shows cost based on current rates. Pick any comparison cars you want. EV fuel costs are cheaper than any gas car and only the best hybrids equal them:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37066&id=36570

Then you have the back-loaded cost of battery replacement in 5-8 years.

Based on what? They all have 8 year warranties, so it is an 8 year minimum. Batteries won't self destruct when the warranty is up. They could last 15 years.

The people for whom an EV as a primary vehicle is a better choice than ICE are basically nonexistent, and there's no argument in terms of economics or practicality for an EV as a second vehicle.

People don't buy cars based only on the best economic value. If the only factor was getting the best value, 90% of the cars on the roads would be sub $15K cheap hatchbacks, because that is all people really need.

EV's are largely in the early adopter/enthusiast stage right now. People who buy them, LOVE them.

But I guess it is a bit much for a place like HardOCP understand the early adopter/enthusiast mentality.

 

[kumquat]

That site's "cost to drive 25 miles" assumes 100% charging efficiency. Real world charging efficiency is about 80%.

That means that, according to this site's quote of 30 kWh / 100 miles, at a national average of 13 cents per kWh, and 80% charging efficiency, that's a cost of $4.875 to drive 100 miles in the Leaf.

The Tesla Model S, at 38 kWh / 100 miles, is $6.174 per 100 miles.

At a national average of $1.85 per gallon of gas, a Prius C hybrid, which gets 50 mpg, that's a cost of $3.70 per 100 miles.

A Mazda 2, at 37 mpg combined, is $5.00 per 100 miles.

I don't dispute that they need a niche to keep growing in. But that's just it - they're niche vehicles right now. They make zero sense for the vast majority of people except as expensive feel-good toys.

I'm trying to explain the reasons for the low adoption seen in the OP. It's exactly as you say: they're niche products that are really only appropriate for early adopters/enthusiasts right now. That's why they're not selling nearly as well as was hoped.

 

[kumquat]

To expand, even using that site that assumes 100% charging efficiency, it quotes the Prius as having the same "cost to drive 25 miles" as the Leaf. The Prius has the advantage of a >500 mile range (versus 84 for the Leaf) on gasoline with zero charging time and no need to find a charger, or plan your route around the existence of chargers.

The Prius and Prius C are also cheaper up-front than the Leaf.

The Prius is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, has 6 times the range, has much more passenger and cargo space, and "charges" from empty to full in 3 minutes at any of 115,000 "charging stations" in the United States.

Oh, and I didn't even include the Prius Eco, which costs $3.30 per 100 miles and has a >600 mile range.

 

[tybert7]

To expand, even using that site that assumes 100% charging efficiency, it quotes the Prius as having the same "cost to drive 25 miles" as the Leaf. The Prius has the advantage of a >500 mile range (versus 84 for the Leaf) on gasoline with zero charging time and no need to find a charger, or plan your route around the existence of chargers.

The Prius and Prius C are also cheaper up-front than the Leaf.

The Prius is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, has 6 times the range, has much more passenger and cargo space, and "charges" from empty to full in 3 minutes at any of 115,000 "charging stations" in the United States.

Oh, and I didn't even include the Prius Eco, which costs $3.30 per 100 miles and has a >600 mile range.

The prius has two main drawbacks.

1, it looks like an egg on wheels and gives eye cancer. Many have no problem with this though so fair enough.

2, if there was a zombie apocalypse, like all ICE cars, you would run out of fuel. The biggest hole in the walking dead is the fact that people are driving around all the time like there are gas stations on every corner. That's not real. But an electric car? Fin some solar panels and let the sun recharge over time. It might take a weeks worth of charging, but that's better than no charging at all.



Lastly, this is not a drawback for the prius but a perk of electric cars. Battery capacity WILL increase with time. At some point we will get battery packs that will allow 500-1k miles per charge, it's just a matter if WHEN not if. And when that day comes, the convenience of the 500 mile gasoline prius tank will fall away.

Teslas head battery engineering guy, JB Straubel said somewhere that on average lithium ion energy density is improving at a rate of around 8% per year. So to get double our current level will take around 9 years at those average rates.

This is happening people, and every single person pretending it won't will be driving around in their own electric scooter and saying they always knew. Even deathok.

 

[kumquat]

When the economic and convenience arguments are there in favor of EVs in more situations, then we will see adoption skyrocket. That requires electricity to be much cheaper than gas (it's currently not), EV ranges to be far higher (they're not), and fast charging stations to be many, many times more common than they are now.

When those things happen, it will start to make financial sense to buy an EV. Those things haven't happened yet, although we're slowly progressing. It's enthusiasts and government funding driving the market right now, and those will be enough to sustain it until it does reach critical mass.

 

[Dekoth-E-]

Can you point to the study that shows that you wouldn't make it there and back under those conditions?

I don't need a study to understand how a battery works or that stats on paper are completely different from real world application. Given the leaf has a sub 90 mile range in perfect conditions, that range drops drastically when you are creeping along in traffic with everything turned on. If you suddenly think the batteries aren't being drained just because you are sitting still in traffic and that somehow you are still going to get the full distance doing 10mph, then quite honestly you are delusional.

If you had an electric car, you would not charge it for 30min every other day or however long it takes to drain the battery. You are stuck thinking like ICE cars. No, you charge at home every night after you finish your daily commute. Get up in the morning, full charge, 200+ miles. What we are referring to is for road trips away from home - drive 3hours, stop at a rest stop, and while you do your thing the car charges.

I would not want to charge for 30min every time I run down the battery - that's not practical at all, and also frowned upon if you do this via superchargers. I charge 80%, which gives me around 240 miles of range, then commute to/from work and run whatever errands I need. Once I get home, I plug the car in, and it charges overnight. Worst case for me is maybe 2 hours to charge on a busy day - 4 hours if the battery was depleted.

In these scenarios, you are not "sitting" anywhere except on your lazyboy at home.

You missed the point, we are discussing the leaf and it's horrid range and how it applies to a place like Atlanta where the actual distance isn't that long but you are in the car for hours just to get there. Sorry but not all of us are running out and dropping 50k on a toy, I'm glad you obviously have enough disposable income to waste. The Tesla isn't the typical "consumer" Ev by any stretch. It's like comparing a Mercedes S class to a honda civic.

Also on road trips, if I had to stop every 3 hours, I would never get anywhere. I really don't understand why some of you have this need to stop so damn much. I literally only stop when I run out of gas and that is at most 5 minutes. If i'm travelling somewhere, I don't want or need to add hours to a trip unnecessarily.