DRAM Prices Could Fall 5%

AlphaAtlas

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DRAMeXchange predicts that DRAM prices could fall 5% in Q4 2018. Avril Wu, senior research director of DRAMeXchange, said “DRAM products have begun to see a weak price trend since 3Q18 after the price growth of nine consecutive quarters.” Graphics DRAM in particular is already starting to drop in price, while PC and server RAM prices only grew 1% to 2% last quarter. Samsung is rumored to be slowing down memory production in response to reduced demand.

Similar to server DRAM, the PC DRAM market also expects an oversupply and a price drop up to 5%. The price decline is larger than the previous forecast, for the shortage of Intel CPUs may lead to lower demand for notebooks and PC DRAM in a row. In terms of specialty DRAM, DRAMeXchange notes that the demand has already gone weak, together with price declines since September, because the U.S-China trade war has brought some uncertainties to the market. For 4Q18, there is a higher chance for the contract prices of specialty DRAM to decrease, even steeper than PC DRAM and server DRAM.
 

Oldmodder

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Yes please drop, i would like to be able to get 32 Gb instead of the planned 16 Gb, not least since 32 Gb have been the norm in my past 2 computers
 

Snowdensjacket

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I can sell the RAM in my main rig, now years later, for a good 40% more than I paid for it new.

Last year I paid $170 for 16gb pc3200 cas 14 ddr4 during black Friday. Now it is $150 so prices are going in the right direction compared to the constant increasing.
 

Araxie

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not enough yet.. speak about 50% and then we can talk about..
 

drescherjm

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Old ram prices go up because it's harder to find

Doesn't it usually it go up for some time then eventually down? Although 3 years may not be long enough. We may be talking about a 2027 to 2030 time frame instead of 2025.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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Even if it falls by 5% it is too expensive.

DDR4 needs to fall by at least 50% in order to be priced reasonably.

This is what happens when the RAM cartel is allowed to intentionally restrict supply to keep priced high.

RAM pricing is what keeps me from upgrading my old inefficient Bloomfield Xeon era dual socket server. The 256GB of registered ECC DDR4 I'd need would cost me ~$2,500. I can't justify that.
 
D

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Doesn't it usually it go up for some time then eventually down? Although 3 years may not be long enough. We may be talking about a 2027 to 2030 time frame instead of 2025.

Yes, right after production stops, prices start going up, as demand is still there, but negative supply. At a given point machines start being replaced, and business leases start to end a few year later and the market is flooded with used RAM, at that point business are also upgrading to new machines so demand drops hard even further reducing prices, and next thing you know it's $15 a stick on ebay.
 

phatbx133

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I am still on fence for ram kit due too expensive.

I have AMD 2200G, EVGA SuperNova G3 850w gold, MSI X470 Gaming Pro Carbon still in packages box.

Plan to pick up ram 3600 kits for 175 or less someday.
 

Snowdensjacket

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I am still on fence for ram kit due too expensive.

I have AMD 2200G, EVGA SuperNova G3 850w gold, MSI X470 Gaming Pro Carbon still in packages box.

Plan to pick up ram 3600 kits for 175 or less someday.

Why are you using an 850 watt power supply?
 

BinarySynapse

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So they reduced production a year ago when demand wasn't there. Then demand spiked, and they didn't increase production to respond. Now that demand is back down to where it was a year ago when they cut production, they're reducing production again. Something's fucked up about that.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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It will probably be cheap when EPYCs and xeons are using only REG ECC DDR5..

Yeah, I've long suspected I won't be able to justify an upgrade my server until DDR4 becomes available as affordable used server pulls.

DDR5 isn't scheduled to hit until 2020 though, and even then DDR4 will be with us for a while longer yet. Then theres the price bump right after production stops, before th RAM starts getting cheap again. Can my 2010 era server really last me until 2023-2024 some time?
 

Zarathustra[H]

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Yeah. Just like oil, the price of RAM has nothing to do with the actual cost of production.


That's every single product ever made.

Pricing is determined by the intersection of supply and demand. You know, what people are willing to pay for something.

Sometimes that is above your production cost and you make a profit. Sometimes it is below and you incur a loss, and something has to change or you won't be doing that for long.

Companies can price things differential than what the market will bear, but if they do, one of two things will happen. Price it too high, and people don't buy it, and you wind up sitting on inventory. Price it too low, and too many will want it, and you'll have shortages.

So called "cost plus" pricing modell are pretty much obsolete and only used in some rare consulting or custom manufacturing settings.

...or by businesses run by those who are clueless. You can't run a business that way, ignoring the price that the market will bear.
 

ccityinstaller

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There must be RAM that doesn't have its final assembly in China though, right?

SuperTalent used to assemble and test their kits here in the US, FL I believe IIRC...They stopped sometime back, just like JL Audio and Kicker and 1000000000 other companies..
 

RPGWiZaRD

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Wow 5%.... When they have been driven up by like 100% or whatever it is since all time low :p

I don't think ppl will even take notice of a 5% drop at this point.
 

c3k

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My z87 mobo uses DDR3. Sigh. I feel the need to upgrade, but not when a stick of RAM costs more than the equivalent weight of gold.
 
D

Deleted member 243478

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I remember when i got my DDR4-3200 32GB for $250AUD now its $750AUD. I made money on PC hardware LOL
 
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Yes, right after production stops, prices start going up, as demand is still there, but negative supply. At a given point machines start being replaced, and business leases start to end a few year later and the market is flooded with used RAM, at that point business are also upgrading to new machines so demand drops hard even further reducing prices, and next thing you know it's $15 a stick on ebay.
I'll hunt in AliExpress at $5
 
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