DRAM Prices Could Fall 5%

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by AlphaAtlas, Sep 27, 2018.

  1. AlphaAtlas

    AlphaAtlas [H]ard|Gawd Staff Member

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    DRAMeXchange predicts that DRAM prices could fall 5% in Q4 2018. Avril Wu, senior research director of DRAMeXchange, said “DRAM products have begun to see a weak price trend since 3Q18 after the price growth of nine consecutive quarters.” Graphics DRAM in particular is already starting to drop in price, while PC and server RAM prices only grew 1% to 2% last quarter. Samsung is rumored to be slowing down memory production in response to reduced demand.

    Similar to server DRAM, the PC DRAM market also expects an oversupply and a price drop up to 5%. The price decline is larger than the previous forecast, for the shortage of Intel CPUs may lead to lower demand for notebooks and PC DRAM in a row. In terms of specialty DRAM, DRAMeXchange notes that the demand has already gone weak, together with price declines since September, because the U.S-China trade war has brought some uncertainties to the market. For 4Q18, there is a higher chance for the contract prices of specialty DRAM to decrease, even steeper than PC DRAM and server DRAM.
     
  2. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

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    There's a zero missing after that five, and it'd still be overpriced...

    Man I'm bitter.
     
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  3. Bowman15

    Bowman15 [H]ard|Gawd

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    You might be mad but you ain't wrong...
     
  4. I can sell the RAM in my main rig, now years later, for a good 40% more than I paid for it new.
     
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  5. DukenukemX

    DukenukemX [H]ardness Supreme

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    WoW, 5%? That's almost enough to pay for the tax on it.
     
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  6. Oldmodder

    Oldmodder Gawd

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    Yes please drop, i would like to be able to get 32 Gb instead of the planned 16 Gb, not least since 32 Gb have been the norm in my past 2 computers
     
  7. Snowdensjacket

    Snowdensjacket Limp Gawd

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    Last year I paid $170 for 16gb pc3200 cas 14 ddr4 during black Friday. Now it is $150 so prices are going in the right direction compared to the constant increasing.
     
  8. DeathFromBelow

    DeathFromBelow [H]ardness Supreme

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    Time for another 'fire' at the factory.
     
  9. katanaD

    katanaD [H]ard|Gawd

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    Samsung is already on it.. (y)
     
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  10. I paid $80 for mine, and at the time it wasn't even on sale and this was back in 2016. Right direction? Sure, but a long, LONG way to go.
     
  11. M76

    M76 [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Yawn, call me when we can at least compete with 2016 prices.
     
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  12. drescherjm

    drescherjm [H]ardForum Junkie

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    My expectation is 3 years after DDR4 becomes obsolete.
     
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  13. Araxie

    Araxie [H]ardness Supreme

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    not enough yet.. speak about 50% and then we can talk about..
     
  14. xorbe

    xorbe [H]ardness Supreme

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    Old ram prices go up because it's harder to find, and they know businesses will shell out versus swapping machines.
     
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  15. drescherjm

    drescherjm [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Doesn't it usually it go up for some time then eventually down? Although 3 years may not be long enough. We may be talking about a 2027 to 2030 time frame instead of 2025.
     
  16. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    Even if it falls by 5% it is too expensive.

    DDR4 needs to fall by at least 50% in order to be priced reasonably.

    This is what happens when the RAM cartel is allowed to intentionally restrict supply to keep priced high.

    RAM pricing is what keeps me from upgrading my old inefficient Bloomfield Xeon era dual socket server. The 256GB of registered ECC DDR4 I'd need would cost me ~$2,500. I can't justify that.
     
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  17. Yes, right after production stops, prices start going up, as demand is still there, but negative supply. At a given point machines start being replaced, and business leases start to end a few year later and the market is flooded with used RAM, at that point business are also upgrading to new machines so demand drops hard even further reducing prices, and next thing you know it's $15 a stick on ebay.
     
  18. phatbx133

    phatbx133 Gawd

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    I am still on fence for ram kit due too expensive.

    I have AMD 2200G, EVGA SuperNova G3 850w gold, MSI X470 Gaming Pro Carbon still in packages box.

    Plan to pick up ram 3600 kits for 175 or less someday.
     
  19. drescherjm

    drescherjm [H]ardForum Junkie

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    It will probably be cheap when EPYCs and xeons are using only REG ECC DDR5..
     
  20. JStamsek

    JStamsek [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Will ram producers be joining OPEC? Because that’s how they’re treating it.
     
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  21. Snowdensjacket

    Snowdensjacket Limp Gawd

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    Why are you using an 850 watt power supply?
     
  22. ryan_975

    ryan_975 [H]ardForum Junkie

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    So they reduced production a year ago when demand wasn't there. Then demand spiked, and they didn't increase production to respond. Now that demand is back down to where it was a year ago when they cut production, they're reducing production again. Something's fucked up about that.
     
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  23. nubbin77

    nubbin77 Limp Gawd

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    Where is the EU on this one? They only like to attack US software companies I guess.
     
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  24. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    Yeah, I've long suspected I won't be able to justify an upgrade my server until DDR4 becomes available as affordable used server pulls.

    DDR5 isn't scheduled to hit until 2020 though, and even then DDR4 will be with us for a while longer yet. Then theres the price bump right after production stops, before th RAM starts getting cheap again. Can my 2010 era server really last me until 2023-2024 some time?
     
  25. TordanGow

    TordanGow [H]ard|Gawd

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    Not quite, the Trump Tariffs are 10%.
     
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  26. Snowdensjacket

    Snowdensjacket Limp Gawd

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    Good maybe we can start manufacturing dram in our own country again and get more competition going. Stop getting ripped off by the rest of the world.
     
  27. And you think RAM is expensive now? :hilarious::hilarious::hilarious::hilarious:
     
  28. dgz

    dgz [H]ardness Supreme

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    If you put decent enough RGB diodes, you could buy a decent near ocean property
     
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  29. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    There must be RAM that doesn't have its final assembly in China though, right?
     
  30. Dick Johnson

    Dick Johnson [H]Lite

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    Yes. Prices are way too high.

    Right now, 32GB of DDR3 RAM is double the price I paid 2 years ago. And DDR4 is $50 or $60 more.
     
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  31. Dick Johnson

    Dick Johnson [H]Lite

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    Yeah. Just like oil, the price of RAM has nothing to do with the actual cost of production.
     
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  32. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    That's every single product ever made.

    Pricing is determined by the intersection of supply and demand. You know, what people are willing to pay for something.

    Sometimes that is above your production cost and you make a profit. Sometimes it is below and you incur a loss, and something has to change or you won't be doing that for long.

    Companies can price things differential than what the market will bear, but if they do, one of two things will happen. Price it too high, and people don't buy it, and you wind up sitting on inventory. Price it too low, and too many will want it, and you'll have shortages.

    So called "cost plus" pricing modell are pretty much obsolete and only used in some rare consulting or custom manufacturing settings.

    ...or by businesses run by those who are clueless. You can't run a business that way, ignoring the price that the market will bear.
     
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  33. ccityinstaller

    ccityinstaller [H]ardness Supreme

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    SuperTalent used to assemble and test their kits here in the US, FL I believe IIRC...They stopped sometime back, just like JL Audio and Kicker and 1000000000 other companies..
     
  34. Night_Hawk-19

    Night_Hawk-19 Gawd

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    Sure cut supply and goes down 5 Percent. Believe it when I see it. Maybe it's going up 5 percent.
     
  35. RPGWiZaRD

    RPGWiZaRD [H]ard|Gawd

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    Wow 5%.... When they have been driven up by like 100% or whatever it is since all time low :p

    I don't think ppl will even take notice of a 5% drop at this point.
     
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  36. boushidosan

    boushidosan Gawd

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    Give me cheaper DRAM or give me death!
     
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  37. c3k

    c3k 2[H]4U

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    My z87 mobo uses DDR3. Sigh. I feel the need to upgrade, but not when a stick of RAM costs more than the equivalent weight of gold.
     
  38. aokman

    aokman Gawd

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    I remember when i got my DDR4-3200 32GB for $250AUD now its $750AUD. I made money on PC hardware LOL
     
  39. profiled

    profiled Limp Gawd

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    7nm GDDR6 takes over ddr4/5.
     
  40. Skylinestar

    Skylinestar Limp Gawd

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    I'll hunt in AliExpress at $5
     
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