Card availability returning but is mining really the cause?

Grimlaking

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We have seen some evidence of card availability coming back to the market. Some are postulating that this is due directly to the mining craze lessening.

I will say that mining may be lessening but it's only in my opinion holding it's breath.

When the new generation of faster better stronger cards comes out from Nvidia give it a week for data about the performance of the cards impact on mining to be known. If it is a solid increase in card performance per watt we will see card sales surge and the ability for us pc enthusiasts of actually getting a card at retail prices disappear. (Or become a lottery like system like it has been for a few months.)

So yes if you want a current generation card and have been waiting I say go and buy one as they are becoming easier to get. OR... gamble and wait for the next gen but JUMP ON THEM.

I would also request that reviewers in the industry simply IGNORE TESTING HASH RATES on new cards for 3-6 months. I don't see that happening but the not knowing would be really nice for us that want to get a card to make JOY with not money.
 

RamonGTP

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Well, some miners scoffed at the idea that mining contributed to the shortage. Now, "coincidentally," mining isn't nearly as profitable as it was at the end of last year, and there's a bit more inventory to go around. I think the correlation is pretty clear personally.
 

trick0502

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Sure you can buy cards, but they cost over msrp. No thanks.
 
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kirbyrj

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Well, some miners scoffed at the idea that mining contributed to the shortage. Now, "coincidentally," mining isn't nearly as profitable as it was at the end of last year, and there's a bit more inventory to go around. I think the correlation is pretty clear personally.

Of course you do because you're anti-mining...

I think the bigger issue was that Nvidia is just getting ready to launch a new generation of chips and was winding down production on Pascal coupled with the scarcity of VRAM as cell phone LPDDR4 is taking up a lot of the production time. Suddenly an increased surge in December/January, and they have no GPU's available to meet demand. Sure mining increased demand, but a gamer who wanted a Pascal GPU has already had almost 2 years to buy one. The last thing Nvidia wants right now is to ramp up production on old GPU's that will flood the market near the time they intend to launch next gen products. So mining contributed, but it wasn't like you couldn't find single cards near MSRP if you were looking. I bought a 1060 for my brother and a 1070Ti and a 1080Ti at MSRP during the "mining craze." Vegas issues seem to be HBM2 availability.

I know that is hard to process as you've conditioned yourself to think in the simplest terms "mining = bad" but there are several factors and the increased demand came at the wrong time.
 
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RamonGTP

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Of course you do because you're anti-mining...

Not true, I have a couple GPU's that mine. I also didn't say mining was the only factor. I used the word "contributed" for a reason. So no, it's not that i'm anti-mining. I'm just not stupid.
 

SighTurtle

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Of course you do because you're anti-mining...

I think the bigger issue was that Nvidia is just getting ready to launch a new generation of chips and was winding down production on Pascal coupled with the scarcity of VRAM as cell phone LPDDR4 is taking up a lot of the production time. Suddenly an increased surge in December/January, and they have no GPU's available to meet demand. Sure mining increased demand, but a gamer who wanted a Pascal GPU has already had almost 2 years to buy one. The last thing Nvidia wants right now is to ramp up production on old GPU's that will flood the market near the time they intend to launch next gen products. So mining contributed, but it wasn't like you couldn't find single cards near MSRP if you were looking. I bought a 1060 for my brother and a 1070Ti and a 1080Ti at MSRP during the "mining craze." Vegas issues seem to be HBM2 availability.

I know that is hard to process as you've conditioned yourself to think in the simplest terms "mining = bad" but there are several factors and the increased demand came at the wrong time.

If production is winding down, wouldn't the supply of cards be lowering, therefore we shouldn't be seeing MSRP Nvidia cards, which we are seeing.
 

kirbyrj

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If production is winding down, wouldn't the supply of cards be lowering, therefore we shouldn't be seeing MSRP Nvidia cards, which we are seeing.

I think Nvidia kind of felt forced into making more cards that they didn't plan on making so as to not lose market share, especially in the mid-range segment.

At this stage in Pascal's life cycle, every Pascal that is sold is one less Volta/Ampere/Turing/whatever the next gen is that will be sold later which is the last thing Nvidia wants.
 
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RamonGTP

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I think Nvidia kind of felt forced into making more cards that they didn't plan on making so as to not lose market share, especially in the mid-range segment.

At this stage in Pascal's life cycle, every Pascal that is sold is one less Volta/Ampere/Turing/whatever the next gen is that will be sold later which is the last thing Nvidia wants.

I suppose you can believe that's what happened and nVidia didn't want to lose market share to a company that doesn't have any inventory to actually have the ability to steal market. Or you know, mining. One makes sense and has direct correlation when inventory was very tight and direct correlation again when inventory is slightly more lax, but I suppose that would make too much sense for some people to make the connection. lol
 

kirbyrj

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I suppose you can believe that's what happened and nVidia didn't want to lose market share to a company that doesn't have any inventory to actually have the ability to steal market. Or you know, mining. One makes sense and has direct correlation when inventory was very tight and direct correlation again when inventory is slightly more lax, but I suppose that would make too much sense for some people to make the connection. lol

There are lots of factors:
The increased cost of graphics memory.
https://www.techpowerup.com/236201/...0-in-august-could-affect-graphics-card-prices

The gradual shift of resources GDDR6.
https://www.pcworld.com/article/3112039/components/new-gddr6-memory-could-hit-gpus-in-2018.html

Pascal EOL:
https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ampere-ga104-gpu-geforce-gtc-2070-gtx-2080-launching-april/

Competing for memory production with LPDDR4 with production issues:
http://www.idownloadblog.com/2017/07/06/dram-shortages-micron-technology-issue/
http://www.iphoneheat.com/2017/07/i...-shortage-may-impact-production-2017-iphones/

It's just not as simple as attributing mining to everything.
2982ew.jpg
 

RamonGTP

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I used the word "contributed" or a reason... Since this is the second time I've had to remind you of that fact, I can only assume perhaps you may not know what it means...

When there was a shortage, you guys blamed memory shortages, those still exist but in the same breath you said nVidia felt they needed to increase production. So they increased production despite a memory shortage, an outgoing GPU, and no competition to speak of? Give me a break.

The Miner Theory:
Increased production even though it's an outgoing GPU.
Increased production even though there is a memory shortage, that magically isn't an issue like it was a few months ago
Increased production because they didn't want to lose market share... Even though AMD is the only company making GPU's and they are nowhere near a position to be able to take any market share

Literally none of your justifications make any sense whatsoever. It's a combination of baseless and unprecedented.
 

kirbyrj

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I used the word "contributed" or a reason... Since this is the second time I've had to remind you of that fact, I can only assume perhaps you may not know what it means...

When there was a shortage, you guys blamed memory shortages, those still exist but in the same breath you said nVidia felt they needed to increase production. So they increased production despite a memory shortage, an outgoing GPU, and no competition to speak of? Give me a break.

The Miner Theory:
Increased production even though it's an outgoing GPU.
Increased production even though there is a memory shortage, that magically isn't an issue like it was a few months ago
Increased production because they didn't want to lose market share... Even though AMD is the only company making GPU's and they are nowhere near a position to be able to take any market share

Literally none of your justifications make any sense whatsoever. It's a combination of baseless and unprecedented.

I understand the word "contributed," but I don't agree with your percentage of contribution. I think mining is maybe 25-35% of the cause.
 

RamonGTP

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I understand the word "contributed," but I don't agree with your percentage of contribution. I think mining is maybe 25-35% of the cause.

I didn't give a percentage, so I'm not sure how you an agree or disagree on something that doesn't exist.

Where did you deduce your percentages from? Since it's pretty clear your other reasons don't make any sense at all.
 

kirbyrj

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I didn't give a percentage, so I'm not sure how you an agree or disagree on something that doesn't exist.

Where did you deduce your percentages from? Since it's pretty clear your other reasons don't make any sense at all.

You're right, I'm just making things up... NAND shortages aren't a real thing, the price of DDR4 just doubled for no reason in the past year. Nvidia must have magic unicorns that shit NAND instead of buying it from Hynix, Micron, and Samsung like everyone else. Nvidia isn't going to release a new card this year. GDDR6 is just a figment of my imagination.

You want to blame miners for all of your problems...fine. I mine on one card for kicks. I just prefer not to have such a Luddite view of mining.
 

RamonGTP

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You're right, I'm just making things up... NAND shortages aren't a real thing, the price of DDR4 just doubled for no reason in the past year. Nvidia must have magic unicorns that shit NAND instead of buying it from Hynix, Micron, and Samsung like everyone else. Nvidia isn't going to release a new card this year. GDDR6 is just a figment of my imagination.

You want to blame miners for all of your problems...fine. I mine on one card for kicks. I just prefer not to have such a Luddite view of mining.

NAND shortages are real, but you just said Nvidia increased production because they were scared of AMD (who has no inventory lol)

so which is it? Is nVidia increasing production on an EOL GPU, with a NAND shortage and no competition? or is this slight uptick in inventory due to the mining slump?

Make up your mind, you can't play both sides.

I will provide you with one percentage. Your initial reasoning for increased inventory as of late is 100% made up.
 
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vegeta535

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Mining while still profitable if you already have the hardware. Buying new hardware at current payout rates is a very poor ROI. Sure when Volta comes out they will probably produce better hash rates but will it still be worth dumping $700+ and take 6 months+ for ROI? The difficulty is going up and up also. With how it is now I don't think the ROI is there to get in buying new hardware even at MSRP.
 
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oblox

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Mining while still profitable if you already have the hardware. Buying new hardware at current payout rates is a very poor ROI. Sure when Volta comes out they will probably produce better hash rates but will it still be worth dumping $700+ and take 6 months+ for ROI? The difficulty is going up and up also. With how it is now I don't think the ROI is there to get in buying new hardware even at MSRP.

Two points:

1) The real money has always been in mining and holding coins for later appreciation. Mining and selling on a daily basis is the conservative route, for sure, but you're squandering potential profits.
2) Even if the ROI was 2 years, you won't find another vehicle that will "double your money" in that timeframe--and further, the hardware still has residual value. It's not immediately worthless years into the future.
 
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