Good points, but some of the issues will most likely be "add-on".
For example, hardware DRM. I don't see any reason why this can't be an add-on either at the GPU level, or as a separate PCI or PCI-E x1 card. After all, the industry will want users to embrace the spec if they want HD DVD or other content, so they'll also develop methods to allow existing hardware users to "addon" that feature.
Other wise, it'll become a standard that may not have many adoptee's. That or there'll be "software" DRM to support those of us without the hardware DRM chipsets.
What was more pertinant is the statements about how the core die-size would shrink, but speeds would most likely tend to remain constant. Which is acurate in my opinion. Both AMD and Intel started down the dual-core or multi-core route due to thermal issues, electron leakage and others that frankly have cause them to hit a dead end on frequency increases. Main reason we'll be unlikely to see that 10Ghz Prescott that Intel promised at the turn of the decade.
So all the more reason to add "upgradability" to your purchase in my book. A full featured MOBO that is PCI-E is going to be more important than the CPU in the long term.
ram is (DDR) inexpensive and fast, vidoe cards are faster than needed for most games, the cpu's are going to x2 even though there are few apps that require 2 cpu's the software is way behind the hardware.
so i have a stable and relatively fast system now that was sort-of inexpensive.
alnog comes a new socket--new ram-ddr3 --likely annew psu --so i got to toss all this good old stuff in the can--repalce it with flakey new stuff that cost more and is only 3% faster ?
--LOL and as a side benifit i get DRM for free ! yep i can't wait to plunk down that $$$$
First off, computers will continue to get faster in the coming years, rest assured we won't be paying more for new components that are only 3% faster than the old ones. DDR3 is much faster than DDR, and the next-gen GPUs will be faster than todays and will support HDR2.0, SM4.0...etc
Second, processors will continue to get faster as well. When we get to the point where clockspeeds on single-cores cannot get any higher, the dual-core clockspeeds will eventually catch up to the single-core speeds, then we will move to quad-core, which will eventually catch up in clockspeed...etc.
Third, the PS3 will not have much effect on the PC industry. You can get PC's for $300 nowadays that kids can do their homework on, and it would be much eaiser and more practical than if you use a gaming console to do it.
Fourth, hardware DRM is a good idea. It takes years of hard work for Hollywood to produce a good movie, and they should get the profits from it, not people who spend a few minutes copying DVDs and then selling them. If hardware DRM does become reality, I'm sure it will be integrated into something, not on a sperate card that we have to pay for.
Fifth, that article makes it sound like we have hit a wall with PC technology, and the personal computer will eventually become obsolete and will be replace by other systems. That's absurd, the PC is here to stay and will alaways continue to be improved upon. Things that may seem impossible today may be mainstream in the future. For example, we may not be able to increase clockspeeds on CPUs right now due to thermal problems, but maybe in the future someone will discover a way to move heat as quickly as a phase-change unit without the complexity, cost, power bill, and noise.
Actually, you seem to hit on a lot of Ed's hobby horses. He has put out several articles in the past year with a pessimistic outlook on technology coming out in the future months. Only rarely does he say something good about new technology (most recently I remember him liking how well Venice cores OC'd).
He also likes talking about DRM and being a Prophet of Doom about how forthcoming DRM technology is going to render your HDTV obsolete already and you're screwed. I can't see that happening. Heck, we're still using RCA cables for goodness sakes. [Rant]And on a side note, I can't possibly agree with you, HOCP4ME, on the DRM end of things. It's really just going to be a PITA all because Hollywood isn't content with $2.6 billion when they think they should be making $2.7 billion...screw them [/end rant].
His other big thing is how "Joe Sixpack" is going to just use his Xbox or PS3 as his computer in the future because it will be easier. He fails to note, however, that "Joe Sixpack" thinks that computer functions need to be done on a computer. It doesn't matter that a PS3 has more computing power than a cheap Dell. What parent is going to say to their kid...go do your homework on your PS3 and then go to bed. It's not that it isn't possible. It's more that the technology culture in which we live isn't ready for the PS3 all in one computer.