Analyst: PlayStation 3 to Win Console War

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by HardOCP News, Mar 9, 2010.

  1. HardOCP News

    HardOCP News [H] News

    Messages:
    0
    Joined:
    Dec 31, 1969
    Analysts at Strategy Analytics have polished up the ol’ crystal ball, looked ahead to 2014 and saw which console will win the war. The report will set you back a cool $7k (crystal balls don’t come cheap) but, for those of you without that kinda cash on hand, you can get a brief summary here for free.

     
  2. bigdogchris

    bigdogchris [H]ard as it Gets

    Messages:
    17,890
    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2008
    Microsoft and Nintendo will be on their next platform while Sony is still selling PS2's, PS3's and PS4's, of course PS3 will eventually outsell them.

    I do think that PS3 will overtake 360 in world sales before the 360 is EOL though.
     
  3. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    I can see this being somewhat true, since the Wii has become so stagnant and has no games worth playing on it outside certain first party titles. The Xbox 360 is such a piece of junk I refuse to buy it, BUT I am not biased against the 360, it certainly has better online, and a larger online gaming community than the PS3 will achieve in it's lifetime.

    Let's also not forget that some people use their PS3's as a Blu-Ray player and DVD upscaler exclusively and may play games sporadically or not at all. The advantage to the PS3 is that it receives it's Blu-Ray updates to the firmware automatically. Doesn't hurt that for the longest time that the PS3 was also the best Blu-Ray player out there.

    Lately, the games have been going from just merely good to plain goddamn awesome. Today FF 13 dropped, next week, God of War 3 comes out, recently we've had Heavy Rain, Uncharted 2 and Darksiders. All kinds of good games are coming out this year, the exclusives for this system have been very strong and spectecular. MGS4 is still the best PS3 game I've ever played and I have yet to get thick into Demon's Souls.

    All in all, it's looking good for the PS3, now only if the fucking dumbshit executives at Sony could just shut their mouths because they sound so stupid every time they comment on even the most mundane of things!!!
     
  4. Bgrngod

    Bgrngod Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    440
    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2004
    Yeah, no. The only way the PS3 can pass the 360 is if MS stops selling them when they release their next system, whatever that may be. Certainly the next Nintendo system will be out by then as well. Maybe even the next Sony system too. They've already slimmed it down prematurely, surely the next system is already in the planning stages.

    I've got all three and the 360 has been getting roughly 80% of my console playing attention. The 360 just kills it when it comes to online components and overall experience, even when the games are on the other systems.

    Talk about exclusives all you want, they don't carry nearly as much weight these days since there are so few of them that actually have an impact. Most of the big games are available all across the board.
     
  5. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    consider this

    exclusives are the reason I buy a console, the best exclusives are on PS3 (IMO)

    everything else that's multi-platform, can be best played on PC

    if there's no PC version, then so what, they lose sales by not having it on PC.

    win-win from my perspective
     
  6. srangara

    srangara Postposterous

    Messages:
    16,773
    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2005
    Who cares about console sales? How much money are they making from them post-sales (games, services)? That's where the cash is.
     
  7. Exavior

    Exavior [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,657
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2005
    The problems with the xbox 360 have been fixed.

    Final Fantasy XIII is on both the xbox360 and PS3 so that isn't anything to sell the PS3.
     
  8. southpaw

    southpaw n00b

    Messages:
    34
    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2004
    This is true. When the PS3 slim get Blu-Ray 3d support and drops to $150 it will be the preferred Blu-Ray player. So PS3 won't win Console race but it will sell the most by 2014 as a disk player.
     
  9. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    It took the 360 a long time to get it's issues fixed, you think just cause they are "fixed" I'm gonna buy one now? No thanks.

    Besides, any decent 360 games usually are also on PC, so it's moot really.

    Yes I'm aware that 360 has FF 13, but it's been said that the PS3 version will be better.
     
  10. SpeedRunner

    SpeedRunner Guest

    I owned a PS3 for a few months. I sold it shortly after. I don't see how it could appeal to a large market.
     
  11. IRSmurf

    IRSmurf 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,312
    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2007
    IMO console wars are won in games sold, not consoles sold.

    I doubt the PS3 is going to outsell XBOX 360 games before the launch date of the next console. If there were a place to bet money on this, I'd do it.
     
  12. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009

    I can agree with this because of PS3 games often being and staying at a higher price point because of Blu-Ray, compared to the 360 games being at a lower price point and being marked down much quicker than their ps3 counterparts
     
  13. dr.stevil

    dr.stevil [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,093
    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2008
    I'll believe it when I see it (unless sony keeps selling the ps3/games well past the release of their next system)
     
  14. Mr. Bluntman

    Mr. Bluntman [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,408
    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2007
    Words of wisdom to be had here...
     
  15. magoo

    magoo [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    14,366
    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2004
    The only reason the PS3 will "outsell" the 360 in raw numbers is that the 360 will cease.

    The title of the article is very misleading.

    I guess that's why "analysts" are so smart. They can overstate the obvious.

    I loved the statement ; "we could be wrong if Microsoft continues to kick Sony's butt".

    Why didn't they just come out and say it: Sony will sell more PS3 than 360s because Microsoft plans to move on in a couple of years ans that's when then older, cheaper PS3 will really take off.......wow, brilliant.
    This is of course predicated on the assumption that bluray will be the dominant playback media.......what if we see a move to online streamimg or some newer,cheaper digital media?
     
  16. SamuraiInBlack

    SamuraiInBlack [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    5,675
    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2003
    Fixed the quote from the article. :)
     
  17. PreOmegaZero

    PreOmegaZero 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,918
    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2002
    If it's a FPS, RTS or BioWare RPG.

    Example #1: The better Basketball game, NBA 2K10. PC players are still waiting on a patch since October. Console owners have gotten 2.

    Example #2: Assassin's Creed 2. Yes, the PC game CAN look better (assuming you drop enough $ into your PC), but do we even need to get into the DRM issues?

    [QUOTE if there's no PC version, then so what, they lose sales by not having it on PC.
    win-win from my perspective[/QUOTE]

    Not having a PC version in some occasions might actually be better from a money-making standpoint; unless the 360 is their lead SKU. Piracy is so ridiculous on the PC; that depending on the publisher; putting the resources into a PC version can be a waste of time and money. Somewhat related is, many of the games, people would rather play on a console.
    Example: Left 4 Dead, and CoD:MW were both better on the PC, but the ease of jumping in a game, and communicating with friends on a console made those platforms almost preferred with these games.
    (Mind you; I'm a 'PC-pusher' at work with co-workers who may actually own both 360 and PC versions of a game, and in the majority of cases, we all end up playing the console version when in Co-op or MP)
     
  18. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    fps with thumbsticks

    ummm no thanks?

    i'll stick with the MX518 + keyboard over thumbsticks

    MW1 and L4D have server browsers, if that's a little hard to figure out for some people, well I'm not gonna waste any emotion feeling bad for them

    server browsers > matchmaking, end of story
     
  19. PreOmegaZero

    PreOmegaZero 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,918
    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2002
    You totally missed the point, but...umm...ok.
     
  20. Jonelo

    Jonelo n00b

    Messages:
    34
    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2007
    Sony can win the "battle", but maybe not recover the money invested in the PS3. The term "win" is very relative, "win" for the fanboy but can be a ruin for a company. It may also occur that the life of PS3 can be 10 or 15 years , the only way to recover the money invested, and is the biggest selling console for that reason. While Nintendo can afford to change the console to better position themselves in the market. Nintendo is the only one who has won these past 5 years, Microsoft lost billions with the Xbox and also in the first years with the 360. The proof is that Sony and Microsoft are going to the same Nintendo's casual market to recover the money. The problem is that maybe this market sector is close to being saturated.
     
  21. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    Also if you think piracy isn't on consoles, there's a lot of delusion there. Some people buy a 360 to play online, and buy another 360 and mod it, and then pirate the hell out of the best single player games.

    Umm, also

    if PC gaming were to stop existing tommorrow, I guarantee you that the pirates would shift more of an effort onto consoles.

    It's also possible to pirate on Wii by installing custom homebrew software.

    I don't know if it's possible to pirate on PS3.

    PC piracy wouldn't be so rampant if they quit trying to implement stupid forms of DRM and made games that customers WANT to play. They will never win against the pirates, so trying to isn't going to work. They are better off just focusing on the customers that want to pay and making games they want to pay for.

    Best DRM I can think of is binding a cd key to some kind of online experience, obviously doesn't work for single player games, but EA had the right idea by making you log onto their servers to get their free DLC.

    TF2 has free DLC too, Valve hit the right idea, that kind of concept needs to be reinforced, Valve got a lot more sales because of free DLC, patches, and updates than any other reason really.

    If people KNOW you will support a product, offer timely patches, free DLC with good updates, they will buy your product.

    Look at Bethseda, Oblivion and Fallout 3 sold millions despite having next to no DRM.

    MW 2 barely sold on PC because of it's $10 higher price tag and a laundry list of reasons, abbreviated into the fact that it's a stripped and dumbed down CoD 4 without dedicated servers and it has rampant hacking.

    Devs would be better off just offering Steam as the only DRM.
     
  22. Elios

    Elios [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,207
    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2004
    better or not FF13 as a game just sucks
     
  23. RADEoN

    RADEoN [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,534
    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2005
    check out this rare picture i just found of "fail"

    [​IMG]
     
  24. Derfman

    Derfman [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,216
    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2007
    Though I own both a PS3 and a 360 and I love my PS3, I honestly don't think Sony really did anything to deserve to win.

    When it comes to PR, listening to your potential customers, and just overall "We are there for you" feeling, Sony seems more disconnected then Microsoft and unfortunately Microsoft hasn't set the bar that high over the past few years...

    Considering Sony has realized that it's online network (though not bad at all) is not cost effective when offering it for free. They claim to be working around on ideas to charge for feature on content that is not available yet (so in other words you won't lose what you already have for free). Really though, it's been so long since they stated this (numerous times) you must wonder if they really are having trouble coming up with a good idea without charging for PSN use altogether.

    Cross game mic chat? Some people suggested this would be a pay for option since it was leaked that it was on it's way (prior to Sony's change on everything being free), but honestly it will just end up being one of those things that no one but a few people will own and it will become useless. Once you start with a free model you really are going to be pulling teeth to switch people over to new pay for features without shutting down the service completely for those who won't pay....

    Once again, my PS3 is definitely no less valued then my 360, but I still have yet to see something from Sony themselves that makes me go "Damn, I'm glad I am supporting these guys!".
     
  25. Ryokurin

    Ryokurin [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,560
    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2001
    Probably going to be like the 16-bit days. Yes Nintendo won, but it was at the very end when no one cared, and Sega gave up. 2014 the 360 will be 9 years old. The next system will definitely be out by that point.
     
  26. Derfman

    Derfman [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,216
    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2007
    One can only hope. Remember, we live in an age with $100 graphics cards can produce better graphics then a 360 or PS3 at a higher resolution and console gamers still won't bite. Though the recession should be near healed up by that point, companies aren't going to innovate if their sheep like customers are herded in daily with a basket of Benjamins on their backs... :(
     
  27. collegeboy69us

    collegeboy69us [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    5,257
    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2003
    I was very set to buy a PS3 2 years ago in anticipation of GranTurismo 5 - I've never owed a PS2 or any of their past titles but it looked amazing.

    Here it is 2010 - and there is still no solid release date. You can have 10,000 cars but whats the point if the thing never comes out. I've been enjoying Forza 2 and 3 for an incredibly long time.

    Sony in general has made some incredibly stupid moves IMO outside of the PS realm. They can rot as far as I'm concerned. Blue-Ray? not thanks I'll just download and watch 1080p from my newsgroup servers.
     
  28. GoodBoy

    GoodBoy [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,500
    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2004
    I would be saying that it is highly likely for this "report" to have been paid for by Sony, except that they are saying 2014? (Maybe thats to make it more believeable.. :) )

    In 2014 who cares? Sony is too far behind and 2014 you are looking at the next gen console. And the ps3 will be 7 years old (8 years in nov 2014), the xbox 360 will be 9 years old in may 2014.

    Sounds like a worthless report to me. but what do I know, I'm a pc gamer.

    but seriously, if these consoles are still going strong after 9 years? Who "won" ?
     
  29. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    I don't understand why you want to do a personal attack, but ok.

    I'm just someone with an opinion, you don't have to like it, but you could at least provide feedback in a more positive fashion.

    Elios, FF 13 sucks in your opinion, and it's fine if you feel that way, I can respect that, those of us who are fans of FF 13 will definitely play it.

    Every single FF game released in the main series has been worth playing, I don't expect that to be any different this time around.

    That is NOT the same thing as saying it will be a great game.
     
  30. robothunter

    robothunter Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    369
    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2008
    I can't see the PS3 winning in the long run. I mean you only have to buy 1 PS3. You have to buy a new Xbox 360 every couple of years.
     
  31. Gorankar

    Gorankar [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,299
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2000
    I have a launch PS3 that has played all of 3 rented games and a handful of Blurays. I count toward the numbers that supposed make the PS3 the "Winner". In reality Sony has lost money on me.

    It's odd that people are trying to pick a winner at this point in the game This is a game where there does not have to be a loser. If the PS3 makes a profit for Sony they win, if not they lose. The same goes for MS and the 360 and Nintendo and the Wii. They can all win.
     
  32. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    while you're whining about how bad FF 13 sucks, I'm going to be playing it
     
  33. LonerVamp

    LonerVamp Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    497
    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2002
    You simply can't judge a console's success based on units sold, especially coming from the maker itself, or some analysts in a cube farm.

    You have to ask the developers and distributors which system they make and sell for and which ones they are seeing positive turnaround on.

    Nintendo did great with the Wii early on pursuing the borderline "casual" gamers. Sadly, that is flaming out quickly as they all buy their Wii Bowling, Fit, and Tennis games. They saturated quickly, and few of them are "real" gamers who continue to spend time and money on the system.

    Sony's PS3 has lived as long as it has for only one reason: blu-ray price-point exclusivity. I would guesstimate that 9 of 10 people I've known or read opinions from echo many sentiments above: they just don't buy many games or spend many hours at all on the PS3.

    At least with the X-Box you have a very active community of gamers who purchase multiple titles every quarter, and continue to play their games seemingly far more than PS3 players.

    I'm sorry, but this has been a clear picture for 2 years now once it started becoming obvious Sony couldn't keep up, make a dev-friendly platform, and the Wii buyers were just not spending more money.
     
  34. RADEoN

    RADEoN [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,534
    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2005
    Because there's a resident PS3, 360, and Wii fanboy, and every time PS3 comes up I see you chomping at the bit to debate it.

    And it's not really a personal attack as much as a joke. Lighten up bro.
     
  35. RADEoN

    RADEoN [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,534
    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2005
    I'm guessing you haven't tried to buy a wii in the past month? They're sold out everywhere i look.
     
  36. phide

    phide [H]ard as it Gets

    Messages:
    16,695
    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2004
    I saw a few Wiis in stock at Toys R Us a week or so ago. I had to punch an eight-year-old girl in the face to keep her from buying one before me.

    I'm just kidding. I didn't buy a Wii, though I did punch an eight-year-old girl in the face.
     
  37. LonerVamp

    LonerVamp Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    497
    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2002
    Any company can create the air of excitement by making sure they hold back supply just about right in line with demand. This is not an uncommon tactic in any business.

    Nonetheless, I'm not arguing that the Wii isn't moving units; hell that's obvious.

    But are those people buying it a viable market? Nintendo has made a gamble and they did win big in the short term, but that train is low on momentum and fuel. As much as I'd like to wish otherwise, having grown up being a Nintendo child. (The handheld market notwithstanding, which again Sony has put more weight on selling units than actual content.)
     
  38. switchg3ar

    switchg3ar Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    143
    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2007
    Piracy is not legalized. I'm sure if the PS3 was fully hacked you wouldn't buy games for it either. Or if you own a xbox I am sure you don't own the games for it.

    These console are turning into gaming / media centers. Sony has just put together all the major studios for an online purchase and rental service.

    I think Microsoft and Sony both know what the future holds for consoles. It's not just gaming but this whole ecosystem where you can buy rent try different media products on your console. As much as people hate apple they have done some amazing things by creating an entire ecosystem of media that works with their devices. I am sure Sony and Microsoft is looking for the same thing.

    I think whoever brings this to market first in a clean manner will do extremely well.
     
  39. Shalafi

    Shalafi Consigliere

    Messages:
    22,538
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    I'm not really a fanboy, I have a Wii also, but it hasn't been powered on in months, like a year or so, it just sits there

    i never bought the original xbox because i didn't like it's controller

    i never bought a 360 cause of the RRoD and scratched disc issues

    not about to just throw money down the drain
     
  40. krotch

    krotch [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,509
    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2004
    I use to own all 3. The Wii was fail and I had to ditch that. I'm not the casual gamer they seem to market for, so pretty much everything that comes out for it has been crap.

    When games are multiplat, I go for the PS3 version or PC version. I want as little strain on my 360 as possible. I really don't want to have a 3rd RROD.

    Which do I think will have the most units sold in 2014? I'm putting my money on the PS3. PS3 has been catching up with the 360 every year. Won't surprass it by much though. Does this make them a winner? If all you were going for is numbers of consoles sold, sure. Doesn't matter all that much.

    At this point, I feel like it's a tie between both consoles, while they each keep fighting it out. I'm getting great games on both systems. Also more and more games are multiplat. There's few exclusives nowadays and I'm all for that.

    Right now, neither the 360 or PS3 has been turned on for the past like 2 months (aside from watching Dirty Jobs dvds on my PS3 like a week ago). A lot of games came out that were on the PC (although being a 360/PS3 port over), so that's where I've been gaming. Also these ports suck. They run on crap hardware on the consoles, but require more when on PC.

    Regardless of which one wins, the PC gamer is the big loser.