After Losing Half Its Value, NVIDIA Faces Reckoning

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by Megalith, Dec 16, 2018.

  1. shpankey

    shpankey Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    157
    Joined:
    May 27, 2005
    As with most companies, their own greed becomes their downfall.
     
    Stimpy88 likes this.
  2. velusip

    velusip [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,578
    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2005
    The reliance on RTX was a big part of the plummeting market confidence, so this statement is just bonkers to me. Jensen made a painfully obvious spin during the initial reveal -- the company was clearly overstepping the law of accelerating returns with Turing and somehow expected to coast through it on hype alone. I don't have the patience right now to list all the cognitive fallacies involved in that presentation, but there were a lot of interesting sell orders put up during that presentation. lol
     
  3. ManofGod

    ManofGod [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,802
    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2007
    Sings to Mighty mouse music: "Here he comes to save the day, GPP is on his way!" :D
     
  4. EODetroit

    EODetroit [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,486
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2004
    Lol the Turing based gaming cards were all overpriced, slotted a tier higher than they should be, the top model had a tendency to fry itself, and because of all this gamers like me said they were going to skip this generation (too). In addition to crypto going bad. Color me unsurprised. Now who can tell me when Nvidia's stock is oversold? I made a quick profit buying AMD at $10 a couple years ago. after they lost a third too much. Is this a correction or an overreaction?
     
  5. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,243
    Joined:
    May 27, 2001
    this was hyped up on autonomous driving and cloud AI by cnbc. They aren't leaders in either category.... anyone with a brain knew this was coming back down
     
    theBrownLlama likes this.
  6. Mega6

    Mega6 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,462
    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2017
    u should have shorted it and retired by now.
     
  7. Nobu

    Nobu 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,193
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2007
    I would say mostly correction, and maybe somewhat a reaction to various market conditions (as usual). I wouldn't consider it an overreaction at all, but neither would I be surprised if it regains some value. It may have been overvalued, but they are a big company with big potential. Just, they may have big competition soon, too.
     
  8. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,243
    Joined:
    May 27, 2001
    Well you could have shorted anything on October 1st and be rich now.
     
  9. Rahh

    Rahh [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,608
    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2005
    Overpiced current gen cards that can't even deliver what they say. Until they fix it which will probably be next gen I don't see much adoption going on but alas I speak for only myself.
     
    DejaWiz likes this.
  10. 5150Joker

    5150Joker 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,139
    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2005
    NVidia stock was overvalued so this is just a normalization of it. In the future I see most tech companies nose diving because of lithography limits. There's only so many cores you can keep adding before there's little to no gain.
     
  11. power666

    power666 [H]Lite

    Messages:
    66
    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2018
    Graphics is embarrassingly parallel as the bottleneck isn't in raw core count but memory bandwidth to feed them and the CPU side to keep them feed with data. If the memory bandwidth side scales with core count, then once you hit the CPU bottleneck you can further increase resolutions and then repeat the process of adding more cores/memory bandwidth.

    Lithography limits are being bypassed by techniques like chiplets on interposers and nVidia has their own plans for this. nVidia has hit the die size limit and is now looking to engineer around it.
     
  12. 5150Joker

    5150Joker 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,139
    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2005
    Chiplets face the same problem in the end, they just delay the inevitable slightly.
     
  13. sleepybp

    sleepybp Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    389
    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2014
    Intel was in Nvidias position before Ryzen came out. And they did not raise prices to the extent that Nvidia has.
    I just purchased a round trip ticket to Bangkok, Thailand for less than you spent on your GPU. You are happy with your purchase but most gamers do not fit into that target market for $1000 plus GPU's.
     
    DejaWiz and ManofGod like this.
  14. Aireoth

    Aireoth 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,785
    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2005
    This all means we are at an exciting point in tech, this is when innovation matters.

    No one is arguing that most gamer's spend $1000+ on a GPU. Hell, most people are too caught up on nGreed bs to actually talk about why nVidia's stock fell. Its not the 2000 series, though it could be in the next quarter, its the cooling of the crypto market, the crash in the stock market, and generally speaking, nVidia's share price normalizing.
     
  15. ManofGod

    ManofGod [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,802
    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2007
    Nvidia took a nose dive but it is no big deal because everyone else will because of, you know, reasons........ :D
     
  16. ManofGod

    ManofGod [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,802
    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2007
    What stock market crash? Also, dumping half your value in about a day is not normalizing, it is having the hurt put on you. But hey, Nvidia can do no wrong, at least according to many folks around there here parts. :)
     
  17. Aireoth

    Aireoth 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,785
    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2005
    You fanboys are all the same, on both sides of the isle.

    nVidia was trading in the 190's last year december, last summer they where in the 150-160's. They peaked October 1st at 289.36, then started to slide down over October (you know, when everything was sliding down) to 185.62, bumped along till they hit Nov 16, and dropped a decent amount to 144.70 due to investor concerns (Crypto hangover resulting in lots of stock sitting on shelves) and so far have rumbled along.

    Yes, it was a bad day for nVidia, and they deserve it. I don't love or hate nVidia any more than I love or hate AMD, and nVidia has themselves in a pickle atm. Hopefully AMD can capitalize and make some gains, because competition is where its at.

    If I had more capital in the US atm, I'd be buying nVidia, they will recover, and you should almost always buy when others are selling.
     
    Red Falcon and DejaWiz like this.
  18. TordanGow

    TordanGow [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,132
    Joined:
    May 25, 2015
    Yeah, I spent my money elsewhere a while back on other things. Ended up buying a used card about a month ago for two reasons:
    1. Much Cheaper
    2. Specifically to prevent Nvidia / AMD from getting a single penny from the sale.

    Chickens coming home to roost and all that. They were happy to not look out for their core market (gamers) that has supported their business for decades. Fair enough - capitalism and all that, but I get the last laugh. I got the product for 60% of normal price, and they got nothing from that sale. Gives me a huge smile. I hope their share price halves again over the next 6 months. Scumbags.
     
    DejaWiz likes this.
  19. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    I think peeps need to keep some perspective.

    I invested in NVidia in 2006 I believe it was, and I bought like $10,000 worth at just under $20 a share thinking that any time NVidia is under $20 then they are a pretty strong buy.

    The very next day I came into work and NVidia had lost 33% overnight. Within a week NVidia was under $5 and they bottomed out under $4. And so I bought another $10,000 worth, and they climbed back up and I made a little money, my very conservative investment target of 15%.

    I can't speak for today but back then, NVidia wasn't in debt and I didn't think they would ever operate from a debt position. I've seen how much their stock price has climbed and I won't invest in them today because I don't buy into really expensive share price companies. But I don't think they are greatly different than they were 12 years ago and I doubt that they are in great debt. Chances are, all that great share price just means that they have been damned profitable and carefully grown their footprint in the tech world, AI, etc.

    So NVidia can do "not so well in the stock market", they have a long long way to fall before they are going to feel any pain no matter how much the spoiled stock owners cry, the company should remain solid.
     
  20. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    You have a very realistic view of NVidia's current situation, relative reality.
     
  21. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    This doesn't have shit to do with it. You place way too much importance on what way too few people represent.

    I'll recommend you some perspective. Go find out how many chips for the 10 series NVidia had fabbed up. Now imagine that 75% of those chips went into gaming machines and represent customers buying NVidia products.

    Now, compare that number against how many people were bothered by NVidia's price gouging or strong-arming of the gaming media, or even their efforts to corner the gaming brand names.

    I bet all those potentially pissed off people don't scratch the surface of the products sold and customers maintained by that 75% of chips fabbed over the last several years.

    What's more, even if I don't like what NVidia has done over the last view years, I still have almost $1,500 in G-Sync monitors that still have several years of life in them before I will replace them so I'll be buying NVidia cards for them until they die or I am tired of them, and only then will I stop buying NVidia cards to drive them.

    It is what it is. I have tasted the fruit of adaptive sync and I don't plan on giving it up now that I have it. With so much invested in my displays, swapping cards and swapping displays is not something I'll lightly entertain for a good while I expect.

    And I am sure that I am not alone.
     
    Lakados likes this.
  22. Hagrid

    Hagrid [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    8,398
    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2006
    Better to buy Nvidia and get free space invaders. ;)
     
  23. NoOther

    NoOther [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,479
    Joined:
    May 14, 2008
    I would say this is definitely an overreaction to the current line of cards. AMD has not really made much of a move or shift in the market to compete with Nvidia, especially at the high end, if anything they have backed off more in recent years. The drop is mostly reflective of hype prior to RTX release, followed by major disappointment by the first batch. I would say the next batch followed by the next series will see upticks again in value. A lot of the advances in this current lineup depend on developers actually using some of the new features in their games.
     
    lcpiper likes this.
  24. Upgrayedd

    Upgrayedd Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    136
    Joined:
    May 17, 2018
    Idk if anyone replied yet but its called DXR.
     
    steakman1971 likes this.
  25. Lakados

    Lakados [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,620
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2014
    Yeah, offering a complete package for the consumer space is working well for them, it is often not about being the best it is about offering the best experience and on this front nVidia is killing it. A lot of this is seemingly reactionary they didn't hit their earning estimates for this last quarter, their revenue was only up 38% from last year not the 42% that was forecast.
     
  26. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    That, but that isn't all of it. The bottom line is really, just the bottom line. For NVidia, that bottom line isn't just about gaming cards, but it's about their profitability in all of their product lines. Trends in mining, which effect sales and pricing is part of it. There are other parts of it as well. I don't know everything that NVidia is into, but they were as low as under $4 a share back in 2006 or 2007, and all this investment capitol that brought them to their highest share price in the last few years must have gone someplace other than new leather jackets.
     
  27. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

    Messages:
    28,334
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2000
  28. Stryker7314

    Stryker7314 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    226
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2011
  29. ManofGod

    ManofGod [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,802
    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2007
    Oh, so you are saying it is only going to get worse then? Looking forward to it.
     
  30. aokman

    aokman Gawd

    Messages:
    781
    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2012
    Sorry but NVIDIA are not remotely comparable to Intel. Pascal was like a 40% performance bump in 1 gen. Touring is similar, yes they are expensive but they deliver on performance, putting aside ray tracing shit.
     
  31. Ski

    Ski Gawd

    Messages:
    974
    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Surprised I have to re-post this again because a lot of you guys are completely unfamiliar with stock price manipulation and buy backs. Let re-iterate on more time so you guys completely understand WHY the stock was overinflated. This is not a difficult concept to understand:

    The truth is Nvidia... or more specifically Jen-Hsun is arbitrarily price gouging this generations GPU in order to to please the stock holders but also increase the stock value of the company. The data is crystal clear, so you don't have to guess anymore the price is inflated. Here is something everyone should familiarize themselves with, there's a thing called stock buyback where CEO's such as Jen have their entire salary tied to the stock price of the company, so naturally the CEO has every intention to raise the price of their products so that come tax time next year that corporate tax break corporations just received (thanks to the House and Senate) the windfall profits the CEO will be is receiving is going back not into his employees coffers but into buying back his own stock which artificially raises the value of the stock. This is sick and greedy and is bad for everyone except the CEO and stock holders, and this is how inequality is created mi amigos. It is no different than hedge fund managers raising the price of their insulin drugs 353% (and even higher) so they can keep up their coke addiction and $10 million Manhattan mansion. And sadly, the kids and fanboys have no idea how greed and capitalism works, so they're willing to getting fucked in the ass by Nvidia's big green veiny dildo. What's worse, there's even individuals who don't care about their fellow citizen as much just so they can say, "I got mine so everyone else can fuck themselves".

    Just marinate on this thought for a moment, the default price is now $1200 for a flagship GPU, imagine what that is going to be in two years. Nvidia's behavior the last year with their NDA's, the Geforce program on the vendors, and now the price gouging, this is just the beginning. Every corporation is doing this in America, this is not just an isolated thing in the tech sector and unless the younger generation understands this reality, Nvidia will continue to monopolize and cannibalize the market till nobody has any money left to buy bread and milk.

    edit: the timing of this article could not be more relevant, this time up exactly what I'm talking about:

    Corporate America celebrated the first full year under the new tax law by rolling out a record-setting $1 trillion of stock buybacks.

    Wall Street loves buybacks because they artificially inflate earnings and backstop prices by providing a price-insensitive buyer. But critics complain that companies often launch buybacks when prices are elevated, not necessarily when they spot a bargain. That appeared to play out this year, which started with stocks racing to all-time highs.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2018
  32. jiminator

    jiminator Capt Obvious

    Messages:
    11,164
    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2007
    tl;dr:

    oh, datamining is dead meaning that the prior demand resulting in lack of supply has turned into a card glut and regular joes do not want to pay $1k for a GPU. Fucking shocker there.

    next to fall will be the gaming companies who have staked their futures on microtransaction gambling
     
    ManofGod likes this.
  33. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    No, not what I said at all.

    I said what I said, not more, not less, and certainly not the bullshit you seem to think I said.

    Why don't you start by taking your words out of my mouth.
     
  34. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    Let's say I completely accept all the information about pricing and buybacks, so what?

    Look, a gaming PC is a luxury item. They are the supercars of the gaming world. Any of us could just buy an X-Bone or PS-4 instead and play many of our same games with no great loss in the experience.

    Any of us can also buy stock and invest in profitable companies. Profit isn't evil. Of course it's greedy, so what? Any of us can profit right along with the others. Yes it's all relative, I am not in a position to make as much as Jen-Hsun, but I can get on the boat and I can make myself some money and so can any of you.

    The only people that buy into this evil corporate America tripe is people who think they can't get anywhere, which is bullshit because I see people making it all the time.

    The problem with believing that the game is rigged is you stop playing at all. You gota play to win man, no other way.
     
  35. Nobu

    Nobu 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,193
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2007
    A good strategy and escape plan helps, too.
     
    lcpiper likes this.