2027/2028 Nvidia/AMD/Intel GPU speculation

They did no such thing, their GPU market share and sales have dropped with no comeback:
I am not sure to what you refer too, but you talk about the RDNA 2 generation and 2021-2022 crypto, it was going toward back up (specially versus what it became now):

YBg9idSBLqvbN49xV59HFn.png


The graph above need to be look at with the general trend that dGPU sales have been going in units since 2007, achieving to match a previous cycle being a big win (price are up to make up for it, GPU life cycle are just so much longer now).

And one of the reason it did not reach 2017-2018 crypto high sales was being busy shipping tons of RDNA 2 for Xbox and Sony, it is not like RDNA 2 gpu at MSRP were collecting any dust on the shelves, RDNA 3 that followed was extremelly ambitious and costly R&D wise, it was a technical failure that launched just after the moment Etherum stopped.

Or an other way to look at it, AMD gaming revenues 2014 to 2026, the RDNA 2 cycle was really nice for them, I am sure they had energy (and that translate on RDNA 3, chiplet design + full stack ambition)

yearmethoddGPU+gaming SOCDerivation Formula
2014​
Estimated~$2.52B80% of $2.33B EESC ($1.86B) + 30% of $2.20B C&G ($0.66B). PS4/Xbox One ramp year.
2015​
Estimated~$2.22B80% of $2.19B EESC ($1.75B) + 26% of $1.80B C&G ($0.47B). Peak 8th-gen console shipments.
2016​
Estimated~$2.43B80% of $2.30B EESC ($1.84B) + 30% of $1.97B C&G ($0.59B). Polaris GPU + PS4 Pro/Xbox S launch.
2017​
Estimated~$2.84B75% of $2.23B EESC ($1.67B) + 38% of $3.08B C&G ($1.17B). Vega launch & early crypto-mining boom.
2018​
Estimated~$3.11B65% of $2.33B EESC ($1.51B) + 38% of $4.21B C&G ($1.60B). Cryptocurrency GPU demand surge.
2019​
Estimated~$2.88B55% of $2.35B EESC ($1.29B) + 34% of $4.68B C&G ($1.59B). Late-cycle consoles + RDNA 1 launch.
2020​
Estimated~$4.43B70% of $3.23B EESC ($2.26B) + 33% of $6.58B C&G ($2.17B). PS5/Xbox Series X/S launch + RDNA 2.
2021​
Restated / Est.$5.61BOfficial restated baseline ($3.3B Console SoCs + ~$2.3B Radeon discrete GPUs).
2022​
Official Actual$6.81B100% Gaming Segment. First official full reporting year.
2023​
Official Actual$6.21B100% Gaming Segment. Peak console volume cycle.
2024​
Official Actual$2.57B100% Gaming Segment. Late-cycle console slump + GPU channel clearance.
2025​
Official Actual$3.91B100% Gaming Segment. Radeon RX 9000 series release + partial console rebound.
2026 (YTD)Official Actual~$1.50B100% Gaming Segment ($720M in Q1 + $779M in Q2).


Crypto help, but gaming consoles were massive has well, something of the magnitude of 2019->2021 for AMD gaming when the GTA 6 followed by the PS7 occur would be hard to pull off without covid-mining, specially if dram stay really expensive, but a nice bump is to be expected, in sales and in how much they spend in that generation knowing in advance sales will be bigger than the in-between consoles gens, having more units to amortize R&D on and pressure from Sony to do so.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top