2012: The Geomagnetic Apocalypse

[stop!theradio]

Life on Earth has survived a few billion years of solar cycles. There's no use worrying about things you can't do anything about.

Well, yes...but I don't think bacteria and spineless creatures of Earth's past were using extremely powerful and sensitive electronics during those past cycles...

 

[DeathFromBelow]

Well, yes...but I don't think bacteria and spineless creatures of Earth's past were using extremely powerful and sensitive electronics during those past cycles...

Tell that to all the birds and sea life that rely on Earth's magnetic field to navigate.

 

[Nemesis999]

Life on Earth has survived a few billion years of solar cycles. There's no use worrying about things you can't do anything about.

Last time I checked there have been hundreds of semi-apocalyptic events. You're ignoring the fact that there are literally millions of species we've never heard of because they have been killed off by these events. The reality is that what we see today is a tiny tiny fraction of all species that have evolved on earth over the last billion years.

As for not being able to do anything about it.... The article does detail a relatively inexpensive approach being considered to do just that.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

Last time I checked there have been hundreds of semi-apocalyptic events.

Yes, mostly asteroid impacts.

As for not being able to do anything about it.... The article does detail a relatively inexpensive approach being considered to do just that.

All it says is something about the "smart grid" and ground resistors, and it doesn't say anything about being cheap.

This is a scare story, nothing more, nothing less. There's no evidence that the solar maximum in 2012 will be anything special.

 

[SudburyOntario]

I say fuck the solar maximum.. Bring out the led paint and old houses and prepare for a radiation sealed home! I for one am definitly keeping some different power generating sources available to me for when all hell brakes loose.

I think if you release all power in your devices just before this thing hits, and regenerate after it's gone.. we should be fine. If all else fails and doom is to come.. I hope my laptop has enough power to get me through one last Prono and wack. Yeah single life sucks but that won't be on your mind should all life go poof

 

[Salavat23]

I say fuck the solar maximum.. Bring out the led paint and old houses and prepare for a radiation sealed home! I for one am definitly keeping some different power generating sources available to me for when all hell brakes loose.

I think if you release all power in your devices just before this thing hits, and regenerate after it's gone.. we should be fine. If all else fails and doom is to come.. I hope my laptop has enough power to get me through one last Prono and wack. Yeah single life sucks but that won't be on your mind should all life go poof

To a certain degree, our electronics won't work. So you charging your laptop won't do anything if electricity is not flowing properly.

 

[SudburyOntario]

To a certain degree, our electronics won't work. So you charging your laptop won't do anything if electricity is not flowing properly.

hmmm.. You may be right, perhaps old mechanical movie projectors will suffice

 

[Nemesis999]

Yes, mostly asteroid impacts.

The major ones? Sure, some of them. Iceages (which can be brought on, worsened, or softened by the sun) are another major one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event

There are a LOT of extinctionary events, and most of them aren't asteroids. 99% of species that have ever lived are extinct.
While it would take something like a asteroid impact to immediately destroy humans, a combination of perhaps a solar ejection and an ice age could easily turn humans into a dead clade walking.

All it says is something about the "smart grid" and ground resistors, and it doesn't say anything about being cheap.

Yes it does.

Kappenman: If you're talking about the United States, there are about 5,000 transformers to consider this for. The Electromagnetic Pulse Commission recommended it in a report they sent to Congress last year. We're talking about $150 million or so. It's pretty small in the grand scheme of things.

This is a scare story, nothing more, nothing less. There's no evidence that the solar maximum in 2012 will be anything special.

This has less to do with 2012 and more to do with the fact that this WILL happen eventually. It's not a possibility, it's a guarantee.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

This has less to do with 2012 and more to do with the fact that this WILL happen eventually. It's not a possibility, it's a guarantee.

And? I can guarantee that a extinction event level asteroid impact or volcanic eruption is going to occur at some point in the future too.

Our understanding of what causes extinction events is pretty limited beyond those caused by asteroids and volcanism. The fact that the overall extinction rate is trending downward and the gaps between major extinction events are increasing is a sign that they're tied more closely to impacts and volcanism (both of which are decreasing) rather than cyclical changes like solar output.

All I'm saying is that in the big scheme of things its highly unlikely that humans will be wiped out by a natural disaster of some sort in the next century or two. Assuming we don't kill ourselves off in that time frame we'll become a much more advanced space faring civilization with greater ability to predict and control our environment.

 

[Nemesis999]

And? I can guarantee that a extinction event level asteroid impact or volcanic eruption is going to occur at some point in the future too.

The difference is that major asteroid impacts happen every few hundreds million years on average. A solar mass ejection is a common occurance.

All I'm saying is that in the big scheme of things its highly unlikely that humans will be wiped out by a natural disaster of some sort in the next century or two. Assuming we don't kill ourselves off in that time frame we'll become a much more advanced space faring civilization with greater ability to predict and control our environment.

The point is that we don't NEED to be wiped out in the next few hundreds years to become extinct in the next 10,000. As mentioned before, we are headed into an iceage. If we got hit with a mass ejection today recovery is not guaranteed whatsoever. If the full world's power grids were destroyed it would take decades to get back to where we were, and that's assuming mass violence didn't destroy our civilizations. The odds of humans sucessfully leaving Earth after the iceage hits are far far lower. Failure to protect something as vital as a power grid for such a tiny cost simply makes no sense.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

The difference is that major asteroid impacts happen every few hundreds million years on average. A solar mass ejection is a common occurance.

Not on the scale necessary to "wipe out the world's power grids." If we got hit by a blast that powerful I think we'd lose a lot more than the power grid.

 

[Nemesis999]

Not on the scale necessary to "wipe out the world's power grids." If we got hit by a blast that powerful I think we'd lose a lot more than the power grid.

No we wouldn't. The magnetosphere can easily absord a hit from a multi-trillion watt ejection. Storms of this magnitude are "common". Earth has felt thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands of major ejections. The difference is that we now heavily rely on technology that is extremely subsceptable to them. DC saturation and extreme heat generation occurs very quickly in the low-resistance transformers. That combined with 500k volt lines working as massive antenna can easily melt tens of thousands of transformers worldwide.

An ejection doesn't just have to hit one place on Earth. These things can be in the range of 10^18g of matter, at that size the Earth can undergo signifigant rotation before it passes.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

Storms of this magnitude are "common". Earth has felt thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands of major ejections.

Thousands or tens of thousands is not common on the time scale we're talking about.

The difference is that we now heavily rely on technology that is extremely subsceptable to them. DC saturation and extreme heat generation occurs very quickly in the low-resistance transformers. That combined with 500k volt lines working as massive antenna can easily melt tens of thousands of transformers worldwide.

And systems have been put in place to mitigate these risks to power grids and pipelines since the big storm in 1989. There is risk of temporary power loss in far northern or southern latitudes, but you would need a storm of unprecedented magnitude to completely overwhelm all the power grid worldwide and destroy electronics.

Its theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

 

[Nemesis999]

Thousands or tens of thousands is not common on the time scale we're talking about.

A Carrington event is a roughly twice per millenium event. It really isn't thousands or tens of thousands. Such an event could cause trillions in direct or indirect damage.

And systems have been put in place to mitigate these risks to power grids and pipelines since the big storm in 1989. There is risk of temporary power loss in far northern or southern latitudes, but you would need a storm of unprecedented magnitude to completely overwhelm all the power grid worldwide and destroy electronics.

Much of the current protection is to perform an emergency shutdown, which requires advanced warning, which requires a satallite to get more then a few minutes warning. The current system lacks a low-pass current dumping method. The whole point is that implimenting what is essentially a bunch of low-pass filters into ground is damn cheap, there is no reason NOT to do it.

Its theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

Such an event could cause trillions in direct or indirect damage.

And I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, I just think there are more pressing matters to worry about. Maybe I'm just too thrifty or cynical.

The whole doomsday article seems like an advertisement for "green" tech and the "smart gird." Not only will we save power (by forcing everyone to change their usage patterns to what the government/power companies want) but it will only cost $150 million! Just a drop in the bucket for a little extra safety, we promise. Oh, and we have to do it now or we're all going to die in 2012!!!

 

[Nemesis999]

The whole doomsday article seems like an advertisement for "green" tech and the "smart gird." Not only will we save power (by forcing everyone to change their usage patterns to what the government/power companies want) but it will only cost $150 million!

Huh?

Kappenman: What we're proposing is to add some fairly small and inexpensive resistors in the transformers' ground onnections. The addition of that little bit of resistance would significantly reduce the amount of the geomagnetically induced currents that flow into the grid.

There is nothing whatsoever about anyone doing anything different at all beyond installing simple protective measures. $150M really is nothing considering the damage done by even a small CME. The 1989 storm did what, $20M in damage? and that was a small area hit by a small storm.

 

[Nemesis999]

On another note, an even better solution would be to capture and store this massive supply of power.

I\ve pretty much accepted that they can do anything with carbon nanotech. It's only a matter of time until they produce some super-capacitors or nanocarbon batteries, or something that can do it.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

Huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_grid

Wired.com: If Barack Obama said, "Lets' prepare," and there weren't any bureaucratic hurdles, could we still be ready in time?

Joseph: I believe so. I'd ask the President to slipstream behind stimulus package funds already appropriated for smart grids, which are supposed to improve grid efficiency and help transfer high energies at peak times. There's a framework there. Working within that, you could carve out some money for the ground resistors program, if those tests work, and have the initial momentum for cutting through the red tape. It'd be a place to start.

There is nothing whatsoever about anyone doing anything different at all beyond installing simple protective measures. $150M really is nothing considering the damage done by even a small CME. The 1989 storm did what, $20M in damage? and that was a small area hit by a small storm.

Assuming it actually costs $150 million, and assuming the ground resistors actually work.

The 1989 storm caused an automatic shutdown that took out power throughout Quebec. There was some localized infrastructure damage, Wikipedia says it caused $10 million Canadian in "damage," although it doesn't say if that was due to actual damage caused by the storm or damage/financial losses caused by the power outage and costs to repair the grid.

A strong ice storm can easily cost $1-10 million or more in infrastructure damage for comparisons sake.

 

[stop!theradio]

Tell that to all the birds and sea life that rely on Earth's magnetic field to navigate.

Ha ha! I saw what you did thar...

 

[Nemesis999]

But he's not talking about making a smart grid. That's already part of porkulus. He's asking to add to the project.

Assuming it actually costs $150 million, and assuming the ground resistors actually work.

The laws of physics say it works. The principles behind the concept are rather basic electronics. Besides, you test any device before you deploy it.

The 1989 storm caused an automatic shutdown that took out power throughout Quebec. There was some localized infrastructure damage, Wikipedia says it caused $10 million Canadian in "damage," although it doesn't say if that was due to actual damage caused by the storm or damage/financial losses caused by the power outage and costs to repair the grid.

This geomagnetic storm caused about C$10 million in damage to Hydro-Québec and tens of millions to the customers of the utility.

From that definition that would imply at least $30M in damage. In one small area. From one small CME. I'd say that more then anything would suggest that $150M would be a good investment. The risk of damages really isn't just me guessing, these are the same conclusions that NASA came to.

A strong ice storm can easily cost $1-10 million or more in infrastructure damage for comparisons sake.

? And if you could prevent 90% of the damage from all storms for $150M you wouldn't do it? The fact that the technology doesn't exist for ice storms doesn't mean you shouldn't protect against other threats.

That logic would suggest that you shouldn't use airbags or seatbelts because you could also die if your car caught on fire.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

From that definition that would imply at least $30M in damage. In one small area. From one small CME. I'd say that more then anything would suggest that $150M would be a good investment. The risk of damages really isn't just me guessing, these are the same conclusions that NASA came to.

It doesn't define what the costs were though. It likely includes the estimated financial losses due to the power outage, not damage from the geomagnetic storm.

And if you could prevent 90% of the damage from all storms for $150M you wouldn't do it? The fact that the technology doesn't exist for ice storms doesn't mean you shouldn't protect against other threats.

Think about it, ice storms occur every year and do huge amounts of damage, some have caused billions of dollars worth of damage. The most powerful geomagnetic storm in the past century only did $20-30 million in damages and took out the power for 9 hours, and that was with no geomagnetic storm warning or protection systems at all.

Should we be building systems to intercept asteroids? Even a small asteroid could wipe out a huge amount of people.

The risk is minimal and we don't have money to blow. If someone comes up with a proven system and the power companies buy in, great, but keep the government out of it.

 

[Nemesis999]

It doesn't define what the costs were though. It likely includes the estimated financial losses due to the power outage, not damage from the geomagnetic storm.

Depending on implementation if is quite possible that the DC could be dumped to ground while the AC passes to the proper load.

Think about it, ice storms occur every year and do huge amounts of damage, some have caused billions of dollars worth of damage. The most powerful geomagnetic storm in the past century only did $20-30 million in damages and took out the power for 9 hours, and that was with no geomagnetic storm warning or protection systems at all.

I think you're missing the point. You're talking about putting a gun you your head and saying you shouldn't be worried because the last 5 times you pulled the trigger nothing bad happened. I'm saying you probably should just not pull it a sixth time (i.e. protect the grid), and you're saying that we should just happily go about pulling the trigger until the gun goes off (ignore the problem).

Wars cause trillions in damage. Crime causes billions in damage. Floods cause billion in damage. What they have in common with an ice storm? They have no relevence whatsoever to handling a CME.

Protecting against Ice storms does not increase or decrease the cost of a CME. Protecting against a CME does not increase or decrease the cost of an ice storm. Protecting against a CME does not prevent you from protecting against an ice storm, protecting against an ice storm does not prevent protection from a CME.

There is no relationship AT ALL.

Do you also advocate not buying insurance because it doesn't cover every possible thing that could ever happen? Maybe no parachute when skydiving because you might be killed by a heart attack anyway? Ice storms are completely unrelated.

Should we forgo every single possible saftey system in the world because we can't stop everything? Because that's what your argument about ice storms extends to if you apply it in general.

Should we be building systems to intercept asteroids? Even a small asteroid could wipe out a huge amount of people.

Do we see asteroids that could cause trillions in damage every millenium? Can we build a system that can withstand 99.99% of asteroids for a fraction of the cost of a single big strike? No.

We can't stop earthquakes, maybe we shouldn't use seatbelts.
We can't stop floods, maybe we should stop insulating wires.
We can't stop asteroids, maybe we should protect our power grid.

Every one of these is an example of a horrible failure in logic.

Can we stop an asteroid? No, so we don't build an anti-asteroid device.

You're bringing up things that we can't do anything about and using them as a reason not to act on what we can.

The risk is minimal and we don't have money to blow. If someone comes up with a proven system and the power companies buy in, great, but keep the government out of it.

Yet NASA disagrees with you... I'm going to go with the specialists on the risks of solar activity. The risk is HUGE. On average we see an event that can cause planet-wide catastrophic this kind of destruction every 500 years. Just because something might not happen in your life doesn't make it a minimal risk. Why the hell would anyone in their right mind gamble tens of trillions of dollars when you can buy insurance for a tiny fraction of that?

 

[Phantoms]

Such a catastrophe would cost the United States "$1 trillion to $2 trillion in the first year," concluded the panel, and "full recovery could take four to 10 years."

They'll just have a solar flare bailout to pay for it.

 

[aShrubbery!]

Ya'll forget...


A COUNTY BOY CAN SURVIIIIIVE! A COUNTRY BOY CAN SURVIIIIIIIVE!!

 

[xX_Jack_Carver_Xx]

New Product Announcement.... Faraday Cage Storage...a 6ft cube, you place your precious electronics into, and when the bigone hits, ZAP.... all your cool stuff is safe and sound.

 

[SJetski71]

Ya'll forget...


A COUNTY BOY CAN SURVIIIIIVE! A COUNTRY BOY CAN SURVIIIIIIIVE!!

Yea, until all the urban/suburban marauders move into the neighborhood, sorta like in the zombie movies

 

[vengence]

Everyone's computer stopped counting at Dec 31, 11:59:59, 1999 and nothing happened. Hell, a lot more people thought the world was going to end then than a long dead civilization.

 

[Monkey God]

Mayan calendar didn't end in 2012, it just reset. Equivalent to our millenimums. NO BIG DEAL.
Stop spreading incorrect information please.

 

[aShrubbery!]

Yea, until all the urban/suburban marauders move into the neighborhood, sorta like in the zombie movies

I don't care how tough those "zombies" - city slickers deprived of their lattes - are, but I am sure they aren't as tough as a 12 ga shell!
Country people could hold their own in such a case.

 

[Atl530i]

Doesn't the Mayan calender end in 2012? Supposed ot be the apocolypse, end of the world

 

[aShrubbery!]

(j) No part of the flag should ever be used as a costume or athletic uniform.

 

[aShrubbery!]

I know she won't be featured in 2012's calendar!