Xbox360 Giveaway

so i got one code today for the first time....what times the best time to enter it?
 
Archaea said:
so i got one code today for the first time....what times the best time to enter it?
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It's tough to say. Most of the afternoon/early evening spots are starting to get past 800 entries more often, typically because people can enter and wait the 10 minutes to see if they win. The best bet would be early morning/late late evening, but that's just my observation.
 
i guess they would e-mail you if you won eh?

I entered....no luck...it's better than playing the lottery though.
 
So I got one of those caps and I thought I'd be able to play with one code.....WTF? Maybe I didnt pay attention enough, did I miss something?

-Rikus
 
I think someone may have broken the code....

I looked last night and there were 25,000 (yes that is right) enteries for the 11:50 drawing. :eek:

Everything around it was only around 1000. Unless there was a system with a bunch of people entering all their code for that one drawing, which wouldn't make much sense...
 
So my friend at work got his confirmation today of winning the Xbox and they do indeed state that it will be mailed out prior to retail. Now we're just waiting to see which day it launches on...
 
My co worker won aswell, he received his confirmation yesterday, they are also sending him a party package with hats and t-shirts and invitations. We are having a big party at his place when he gets it. :)
 
seigejet said:
Finally - all my years of drinking pepsi will pay off!
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Ive spent enough on mountain dew over the past six years to buy myself many many xboxes.
 
So I was going to get a PS3, but not anymore.

Congratulations you are the winner of the 09/11 - 03:10 Xbox 360 sweepstakes brought to you by Mountain Dew.
You will receive your Xbox 360 before it’s available in-stores and will need to provide a signature when it’s delivered. The Xbox 360 is being released later this year in 2005, once the delivery date is confirmed we will post it in your account history so please check back periodically.

In the meantime, during the next few weeks be on the look out for a Party in the Box package from Mountain Dew and Xbox, which includes Hats, T-Shirts, coupons, invitations and more.

Congratulations and Thank you for participating in the Every 10 minutes sweepstakes

Don’t forget you can still use your codes for Collect to Get Gear
 
Congrats Turkish!

Just out of curiousity, how many codes did you enter for that particular timeslot?
 
Actually I had 120 codes and I entered 20 in every time slot from 3:00 to 3:50. I believe that a balance play gives you better odds then putting all your eggs in one basket.
 
Turk,

The second you get it I'd put it on eBay. You know some tool will bid it well above retail just to have it a day or two before launch.
 
I have actually been thinking about selling it for that reason. But now that Microsoft announced the release date of Tuesday the 22nd, I will get mine Saturday the 19th, so it is not that much sooner. I was suprised to find out the prize is worth $580, so it must be the higher end xbox with the hard drive and other goodies.
 
your chances do not increase if you spread them out turk...really you just got lucky.

Congrats on the luck but let me help you see why that reasoning is wrong.

Let's say every time slot has an average of 500 entries.

Let's say you have 500 bottle caps. Let's say you enter 1 bottle cap in each time slot until you run out.

you have a 1 in 500 chance of winning.
for the next drawing you have a 1 in 500 chance of winning.
for the third drawing you have a 1 in 500 chance of winning.

After all 500 bottle caps are used you still only ever had a 1 in 500 chance of winning.

Doesn't sound very reasonable....now here's why.

first entry 1 in 500 entries = 500 to 1 odds.
second entry 1 in 500 entries = NOW your odds are raised to 2 in 1000 = 500 to 1 odds
third entry 1 in 500 entires = NOW your odds are raised to 3 in 1500 = 500 to 1 odds
and so on and so forth...No matter how many time slots you played with one entry if there were 500 entries in every slot you would never have a better chance of winning then 1 in 500. 500 to 1 odds are not good. Now if you entered all 500 in 1 drawing you definately throw all your eggs in one basket soo to speak, but you odds are 100% that you would win. I know it sounds reasonable to spread out your caps to different time slots, but it's just not mathmatically the best way to play your odds...

Moral:

To have the best chance of winning throw all caps into one slot.
 
You are right, I was extremly lucky. I had about 2% odds to win. You are making the same mistake that I made when I was first planning this out. You are assuming the every entry slot has the same amount of entries, which it does not. If every slot did have 500 entries then it would be the same. But what if entry 3:30 only had 467, and entry 3:50 had only 426, but entry 3:10 had 510. Now if I entered all mine in on one, even it it was 500, I would still have better odds spreading it out. That is assuming the average of the time slots I chose, was less then 500. I hope this explains my thought process.
 
tw0_f0ur_ said:
how did u get 120 caps. Ive spent about 20$ in sodas with no winnings :(
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Heh, 120... I've entered about 150 at this point and I don't plan on stopping until I win. ;)

Granted, I get the majority of my caps for free, but I have still entered a crapload of codes.

Even if I don't win, I plan on getting most of that free gear they are giving away. I already ordered the CD/DVD case. :D
 
I got my 120 caps by going to a MN Thunder (Soccer) game and getting all the caps when everyone left. It was kinda nasty, but it paid off in the end.
 
Turkish621 said:
I got my 120 caps by going to a MN Thunder (Soccer) game and getting all the caps when everyone left. It was kinda nasty, but it paid off in the end.
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A little dumpster diving never hurt anyone... :p

I'm actually starting to build an orange cap pyramid at work, but I want to turn it into something else... maybe glue them all together in the XBOX 360 logo perhaps and sell it on eBay.
 
Turkish, any chance you wanna send some caps my way :) Damn i need to go buy some mountain dew and win myself one of these. It sounds like a lot of people here are winning, maybe i will be one.
 
I need to buy more too. odds are getting worse every day though, more people are entering, the average used to be around 500 or so, now it's about 1000
 
All my caps are gone, sorry. You should go to a local Football game or something. Then afterwards check the stands. Or if you have a pro Football team near by, go to the game and get the caps there.
 
turkish...I don't care if the odds were 350 to one and you entered 120 contests at 350 to one. Your odds would still be better entering them all at once. Because if your odds are 350:1 in in 120 contensts they never increase over 350:1. You still have 120 contensts with 350:1 odds and each contest is a seperate 350:1 chance...the fact that you entered 120 times has nothing to do with making your overall chance of winning higher. Go talk to your high school or college statistics teacher for verification. Whether the odds are 350:1, 500:1, or 1000:1, or 2000:1 you still have the best odds mathematically by dumping all your caps into one entry.

It's just math.
 
Archaea said:
turkish...I don't care if the odds were 350 to one and you entered 120 contests at 350 to one. Your odds would still be better entering them all at once. Because if your odds are 350:1 in in 120 contensts they never increase over 350:1. You still have 120 contensts with 350:1 odds and each contest is a seperate 350:1 chance...the fact that you entered 120 times has nothing to do with making your overall chance of winning higher. Go talk to your high school or college statistics teacher for verification. Whether the odds are 350:1, 500:1, or 1000:1, or 2000:1 you still have the best odds mathematically by dumping all your caps into one entry.

It's just math.
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I hate to take a stab at this, but as far as I know, the probability is the same either way, provided the odds remain the same in each drawing.
You either have one 120/350 = 0.342 or 34.2% chance, or you have 120 1/350 = 0.002 or 0.2% chances. When you sum the chances together you get 120 * 1/350 = 0.342 or the same 34.2% chance. (Note, I didn't sum the 0.002, since that would truncate) Maybe you should go talk to a high school or college math/statistics teacher?
 
Well I hate to get involved a Math War, but I already had thought about this myself and come to the conclusion that you have better dumping it into one contest. Yes, the odds would be equal in situations where say, every contest you entered had 349 people, and you were the 350th. However that is highler improbable, you are going to get some 1200, some 900, some 1400. The odds go down really fast then, so your best bet is to stick them all in one early timeslot with few people.
 
I believe the reason people are even getting into this argument is because of the fact that it FEELs like you get more chances when you spread them out into many chances. You don't get that feeling if your put all your points into 1 chance.
 
Right, If you could pick a time slot that you know for sure will have less people, then you should dump them all into one slot.
 
Turkish621 said:
Right, If you could pick a time slot that you know for sure will have less people, then you should dump them all into one slot.
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It just sucks when you dump 70 codes into a drawing that only had 200 entries at the time and it climbs to around 700... and you lose. :(
 
obsean

you cannot sum the individual odds from different time slots...as I said in my first post.
The odds don't sum up to equal throwing them all in one time slot. If you odds were the exact same In example 500:1 and you entered 1000 times. That doesn't mean you should will win twice(summing your odds)...in fact you would be incredibly lucky to win even once. Think about having a 500 sided dice and rolling it 500 times. Let's say you wanted to roll an 11.... You are not any more likely to roll a "11" after 500 rolls than you are the first roll.

first roll = 1 in 500 chance of rolling an 11
second roll = 2 in 1000 chance of rolling an 11 = 1 in 500
third roll = 3 in 1500 chance of rolling an 11 = 1 in 500

Think about it ----- You still have a 1 in 500 chance on every single roll. Meaning that your odds never improve as in your summation idea....

Even the Dice idea is flawed however....because a dice is the exact same and never changes, the numbers stay in the exact same position each time ect ect. A better anology would be something that fluctuates both in number of sides, and position of every number or entry. Something that is completely random....the time slots are random, but the number of entries and the names or people entering are different. The analogy will make more sense if you think of the dice as being a different set of 500 numbers each time which would mimick these independant time slots more effectively. and the only number that is the same on the dice is your single number. So the first time the numbers are 1-500, you choose 11, the second time the numbers are 501-999, and 11, and you still choose 11, the third ime the nmbers are 1000-1498, and 11, and you choose 11. This is getting really confusing, but you should be able to somehow grab the logic.

I have asked my math professor...years back and I remember my statistics classes. Your odds are incredibly better by dumping them all into one slot. I'm not just "taking a stab at it" or guessing here. These are the hard cold mathmatical facts. ;)
 
Yeah. Numbers give me a headache, but I was thinking about it.

Now dont flame me too bad, because I know my math skills arnt the greatest at 1:01am.

If you dump 20 in every slot, and there are 200 entries, then you get a 10% chance, right?

so if you dump 20 in 10 slots, that gives you 10 tries at a 10% chance... because they will give an xbox away for every time slot.

So if you dump the load into one slot, 200 of yours with 200 of someone elses, that is 50:50, rather than stabs in the dark of 10%.

See then it would be more like flipping a coin, or close to it.

I had to do this crap in stupid kid math class all the time, back in the day. Anyone remember those days? Either it was pennies, marbles, jelly beans, M&Ms, I do remember that it was a better chance and putting all the eggs in one basket.

Then again, I never paid attention in math class (or any class) and just daydreamed about women and playing video games... :D

This is really bugging me. I havent had a sip of caffine in months... yet I have a dew sitting in my car... but its so cold outside, so far away... down the stairs, up the yard, through the gate, down the driveway...
 
Okay, hopefully this example will illustrate that dumping all the caps in one entry is better.

Here's a hypothetical for y'all, so don't get on me about how unrealistic it is, I'm just proving a point here:

You've got 350 caps, and there are 350 contests with a maximum entry of 350 caps in each contest.

You can either enter all 350 contests with one cap in each, or, you can enter all 350 caps in one contest. (Let's just say that no one else enters any caps in that one contest where you put them all in)

Now, obviously you have 100% chance of winning the latter situation, of course, because you own ALL the caps in the contest; while in the former situation, you have a 1 in 350 chance to win, 350 times.

While mathematically, you SHOULD win at some point in those 350 chances, it's NOT a lock. You might win on your first try, or you might not win at all.

Back when I used to play a WHOLE lot of Diablo II, you could "gamble" on an unidentified item (you just pick the "type" like ring or boots) with a vendor in the game, and for a few patches of the game's lifetime, a gambled item had a stated 1% chance of being "unique" and very valuable. I can't tell you how many times I gambled on the same item 100 times and I DIDN'T get a unique. It's NOT guaranteed. Of course, every once in a while, I'd get it on like my second try, and then I could try for more, but as far as I know, you can't do that with this contest.

Clearly, your odds are better by putting all the caps in one contest, even if you scale back the example to be a bit more realistic.

Obviously, the real situation is a bit different, since there are a LOT more contests (24 x 6 = 144 contests a day), and you can't realistically get your odds for a single contest as high as the example, but the same logic applies; you want the one good chance to win over the many bad chances to win.
 
Does this make anyone else think of Slurm and the Golden Bottle Cap episode from Futurama?

Sure could use an F-Ray right now...
 
AARGH! said:
Does this make anyone else think of Slurm and the Golden Bottle Cap episode from Futurama?

Sure could use an F-Ray right now...
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I still wish they'd print "You're a LOSER" on the caps of these contests :)
 
Let's say each time slot gets an average of 800 tickets entered (not counting the ones you dump). If you dump all yours in one jackpot, you are are increasing it to 1000 tickets entered. If you entered all 100 in different slots, that would be 801. Wouldn't that affect your chances?

I'm going on the assumptiong that a vast majority of those entering tickets into time slots don't check or care about the # of entires already entered. Most of the slots don't swell up until within the last half hour.
 
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