When will the dam break that holds used GPU prices above new MSRP?

Discussion in 'Mining & Cryptocurrency' started by Archaea, Mar 28, 2018.

  1. Archaea

    Archaea [H]ardForum Junkie

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    I think the dam is springing leaks fast --- and I predict that within 3 weeks you'll no longer be able to sell a used GPU for more than new MSRP.

    I base this OPINION on these factors in Crypto. In order of decreasing concern:

    A) Crypto value dropping due to too many factors to list, but a big one is tax implications around the world (not just IRS) - many countries are spinning up regulation, and tax review. Another concern (that the new green money is learning the hard way) is unregulated market manipulation (pump and dump) leads to completely unpredictable volatility, and that quickly leads from feelings of optimism --- to hey!!! unfair advantage!!! to the new bloods.

    B) Volta/Ampere release lingers JUST outside the viewable horizon, but anticipation is absolutely immense. Potentially 50-70% increased hashrate with GDDR6 at 30% less power rumors are exciting! Also Bitmain seems almost unstable at this point releasing new miners at a ever increasing rate - tackling the current most profitable coins every couple months.

    C) Ease of accessibility of crypto mining with tools like NiceHash, Minergate, Winminer, Awesome Miner, EthOS, SMOS, etc has lead to difficulty spiking as an increasing number of new hobbyist get into mining. (I'm not saying this is a bad thing -- you need new people to make crypto grow!!! -- but it does/can lead to increased difficulty mining)

    D) Electricity price spikes in the next couple months for the Northern Hemisphere (Electricity doubles in cost in May for many of us - and that's a shadow in everyone's mind - as is mining heat against A/C usage/cooling of our homes). I.E. Do I hold through this low point, or do I sell in anticipation of no profit at all when my electricity price doubles in May.

    E) General pessimistic views in the news cycles on Crypto from every angle. In November/December of last year there was a lot of optimistic stories, now it seems the majority are negative.

    F) Bitmain Eth ASIC rumors -- displacement of GPU miners targeting ETH means increased difficulty for other alt-coins, and less profitability for existing miners --- leading ultimately to used GPU market flooding.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2018
  2. cdabc123

    cdabc123 [H]ard|Gawd

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    i can already find abunch for cheap on craigslist (denver area)

    1. ya dont know why crypto is dropping :p

    2. volta will be interesting to see if miners end up buying up the cards.

    3.

    4. i wonder if people are thinking about that over just the immediate. "its dropping!!!!!" and panic

    5. theres a reason for that. keep in mind its legal to manipulate crypto.

    6. thats old fud. people just latched it onto amd for some reason and its back in the news for no reason.


    i would recommend buying gpus for cheap if you can right now.
     
  3. matt167

    matt167 Limp Gawd

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    Yeah, I was ready to buy an rx 560 for crypto but decided not to while mining was ok. A few days later it dropped so hard my setup wasn't profitable. So I turned it off and back to gaming. I got enough out of it to keep me happy.. I'll be in for a better card soon too. Too many frame drops in watchdogs 2 for my liking
     
  4. cpuspeed

    cpuspeed Limp Gawd

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    Archaea so are you selling your remaining 1080tis?

    frankly I worry more that the last few months are the start of a bear market for crypto that could last years.
     
  5. Airbrushkid

    Airbrushkid 2[H]4U

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    I'm mining till I die!
     
  6. Archaea

    Archaea [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Your fear of a bear market is reasonable. I don't think it's my expectation yet. I still think bitcoin will head back north towards 20k this year - I just think it'll be later in the year. I expect a lot of the altcoin market to falter. I think there's too much scam, pump and dump, ignorance, and reckless speculation in the alt-coins to continue like it was. People were throwing crazy money at it just to see if something stuck. That's not sustainable. I think this pullback in alts - while leaving bitcoin price largely alone is evidence that BTC isn't ready to bow out yet.

    However - since I'm not mining BTC, and I'm mining alt-coins and alt-coins were dropping like a rock.......................

    With mixed emotion I sold eight more today based on the concepts/opinions I posted above. That was my last dedicated mining rig's cards. I still have two EVGA 1080TI in my gaming machine - but that's it. I spent a great deal of time thinking about this - and drawing up my decision.


    ALL THE ABOVE SAID - I'M NEW TO THE CRYPTO SPACE SINCE LAST SUMMER AND REALLY IT'S NOTHING MORE THAN ONE UNCERTAIN NOVICE OPINION.....which is why I posted the thread to see what others thought.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2018
  7. cdabc123

    cdabc123 [H]ard|Gawd

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    sadly if thats the case btc is still fucked. it is one of the worst non scam coins and cant support picking up the load from the other alts. i would love to see more smart money enter the market and go into some of the better alts. btc will eventually have some more forking madness this year and i dought it will be a good thing for its price.
     
  8. Imhotep

    Imhotep Gawd

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    I have a totally different take on this. I think the low price that we are seeing now will scare a lot of new comers. It will make the cards drop to semi reasonable prices. If you follow the last years trend it will spike back up again because money needs to revolve for the exchanges to make it. Bitmain is not going to happen. Take a look at this https://cointelegraph.com/news/mone...upgrade-algorithm-to-maintain-asic-resistance. Eth devs would be creazy not to follow suit.
    Oh, I need 10 more Vega 64...:D
     
  9. atp1916

    atp1916 [H]ard|DCoTM x1

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    Excellent. Profitability is already inching up.
     
  10. Archaea

    Archaea [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Funny, you think my ~60 cards were actually removed from the hashing pool?

    Take a guess who bought them from me in lots of 8 or 12...
     
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  11. atp1916

    atp1916 [H]ard|DCoTM x1

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    Summer always knocks off a sizeable % of folks who spin up in the cooler months.

    I would actually love to see a 5 year plot of difficulties / price across a wide variety of alt coins against the seasons of a year.

    I think we would see a pattern very quickly.
     
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  12. MrSneis

    MrSneis 2[H]4U

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    I am hopeful that the prices will come down, that regular people can grab volta/ampere, and that the crypto market recovers.

    Unfortunately those things seem mutually exclusive but could also just as easily bat 0 for 0!
     
  13. biggles

    biggles [H]ard|Gawd

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    The ASICs might have a large impact. It is hard to predict, but possible we will see a fire sale in Nvidia 10 series cards over the next 3-6 months. 1070s were some of the best for mining, look for those to plunge in price.
     
  14. mkrohn

    mkrohn 2[H]4U

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    I bailed on mining around this time of year after the original bubble burst. I kick myself every time I look at the value of the coins I dumped on my way out. I'm going to keep stockpiling coins. All of my hardware has been paid for so the only concern is power as the summer months crank up. In that case I am more likely to power systems off and wait for fall. I have enough 280x's mining right now to not worry about various architecture advances. All of this stuff I have will come back around at some point and be worth powering back up.

    If you can't afford to sit on coins at least a year just cut all ties immediately. Have too much cash tied up in hardware? cash out now this isn't for you. Guys I've been through this and no matter how bad things tank things will at some point come back and be 20x more than even peak times had your pants sticky. profitability isn't shit? as long as its breaking even and you can afford to keep funding the power even breaking even now is worth it.

    If you haven't done so already underclock the hell out of the cards. have a card running 110w? It'll be better at 80w for the summer. Maybe even go nuts and go LOWER.
     
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  15. _r2h

    _r2h Gawd

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    I echo mkrohn. I bailed when scrypt mining took a dump in summer '14. Looking back, I could have paid off my house and way more if i hadn't bailed.
     
  16. Archaea

    Archaea [H]ardForum Junkie

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    so no autoconvert -

    just mine to something like MPH - and hold all coins in whatever form you get them is your recommendation from the past bear cycle?
     
  17. atp1916

    atp1916 [H]ard|DCoTM x1

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    I mined out ~23 btc 2014-2015.

    Mined/sold as a i went. Cared only for ROI at the time. Average sell price was like ~650.


    ... yeah.

    This time, history will not repeat.
     
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  18. Archaea

    Archaea [H]ardForum Junkie

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    There's no obvious "next" bitcoin that has emerged though. Seems like Bitcoin........ and then a bunch of Bitcoin ripoffs, scams, and also rans.


    My crystal ball is broken.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2018
  19. atp1916

    atp1916 [H]ard|DCoTM x1

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    Archaea 100% agree cause the true movers with the billions are pushing the changes from below.

    There is a war going on down there, and the folks with the most money win. Every time.

    It is a good idea to hold a diverse weighted pool of popular tokens to make sure we win with them...when they win. :p
     
  20. cdabc123

    cdabc123 [H]ard|Gawd

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    there are plenty of coins better then bitcoin in every way. in fact i would aproch bitcoin itself with caution if investing. the next for may just hurt it more.
     
  21. mkrohn

    mkrohn 2[H]4U

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    Correct nobody knows which darkcoin style shitcoin that I mined day 1 will eventually evolve into dash. I would have had like half a billion dollars had I held that dark stockpile. But I was all in on returns. I hold over 200 different coins presently. Odds are 50 won't exist in 2 years but it only takes 1 to win big. History always repeats. I am saying it could take several years though. I set marks like I did with ripple. When it hit $1 I cashed out my initial investment. Around 2.5 I cashed half out and the rest is don't touch for 3 years unless it's retire now money. Have marks in mind that make it free money which makes it easy to ride.
     
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  22. mkrohn

    mkrohn 2[H]4U

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    Also I'm an idiot that historically sells right before something skyrockets. I've not actually pocketed a profit. I snowballed my hardware and diversified my coins. I have a good amount of hardware and a lot of coins. I am fully in on "free money" I have my money back. I am playing with money that does not matter to me. It's like the casino gave me a room and chips to play with.
     
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  23. atp1916

    atp1916 [H]ard|DCoTM x1

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    My setup is good for 24/7/365 mining without needing to worry about AC.

    It is an advantage, and i am going to play to it!
     
  24. N4CR

    N4CR 2[H]4U

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    If you think that will happen again, with lots of other People playing same game, I have a golden goose to sell you.
     
  25. _r2h

    _r2h Gawd

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    Nope, just income supplementation. Just a business now.
     
  26. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

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    Odds are 195 won’t exist.
     
  27. biggles

    biggles [H]ard|Gawd

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    1070s are tracking downward on ebay, saw an EVGA sell for $330 the other day. Currently selling around $400 on completed listings. EVGA, MSI, Asus usually sell for higher. Zotac, PNY, Gigabyte, FE sell for lower than $400 currently. Also, I hear bad things about Gigabyte gpu's and fans going bad.
     
  28. atp1916

    atp1916 [H]ard|DCoTM x1

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    A 330 1070 - wot

    Yes, i am not a fan... of the WindForce 3-fan 1070 Ti's.

    They got 3 of the dang things but still spin up to 75%+ just to cool cards down to where it takes 50% or less on other adjacent models.
     
  29. hlfbkd420

    hlfbkd420 Limp Gawd

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    I sold off two of my 1070's ($430 on ebay) and moved the 3rd back into my HTPC for the summer so I could game in the living room again. Still keeping my 6x 1060 rig and the 2x 1080ti's I have in my work box. Mining is fun but summer time here is going to be hot and expensive due to power increases.. Will keep mining until the power costs overrun the income.
     
  30. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

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    Quick glance at the for sale section here, and appears lots of people are jumping ship.

    Gpu bonanza
     
  31. mkrohn

    mkrohn 2[H]4U

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    yeah when there's a ton of cards out there the prices drop temporarily. Now might be the time to buy but I'm still working on getting my wattage per machine down. We still have snow up here so I'm probably a month or two away from actually powering some of these down for the winter or just reducing power to only use like 25% of stock.
     
  32. Archaea

    Archaea [H]ardForum Junkie

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    You ain’t seen nothing. This is the first beginnings—— just trickles...
     
  33. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

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    Oh when the big data centers in china start liquidating, there will be thousands. I need a cheap 580, so i'm waiting.
     
  34. biggles

    biggles [H]ard|Gawd

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    Places to check to see if/when this happens:
    1. Hotdeals forum here
    2. Ebay completed listings (to track pricing on gpu's)
    3. Pcpartspicker price trends per gpu
    4. Slickdeals
    5. nowinstock
     
  35. Nebell

    Nebell [H]ard|Gawd

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  36. mkrohn

    mkrohn 2[H]4U

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    thats not happening. The price of power keeps them very profitable. The cards are already setup and going so it would be if anything a trickling downcycle as machinery dies. after the initial setup work is done there's just not much work. The only people being squeezed out are ones who weren't prepared/budgeting for this. 18mnth returns on cards with 5 year life expectancy is still very reasonable. Pair that with a 3 year warranty which most companies end up giving you a newer model with an RMA it will not get anybody big out of this game. The weak are the only ones who are exiting right now.
     
  37. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

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    Umm, eth is going ASIC, the cards will be useless by christmas unless they change the algo.
     
  38. Archaea

    Archaea [H]ardForum Junkie

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    LOL
     
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  39. TechLarry

    TechLarry Don't Fuck With The Chief

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    Humans and their fucking money :)
     
  40. mkrohn

    mkrohn 2[H]4U

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    plenty of algos out there. I was around for the transitions away from BTC and LTC. When eth finally goes ASIC there will be a period of panic/confusion and 4-6mnths later a clear chosen algo/coin will emerge as the place we point our GPU's. It has happened plenty of times in the past. I'm not the slightest bit worried.

    I am playing with free money(my investment has already been returned to me). If I had put a foolish amount of money into this game WAAAAAY too late yeah I'd cut ties and run. There is a LOT of uncertainty. There has always been a lot of uncertainty. No risk. No reward. My risk is and always has been a level I am OK completely losing.