War of the Formats @ [H] Consumer

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Jason_Wall

[H] Consumer Managing Editor
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As we state in the article, roughly half of the folks that own HDTVs actually view HD content. Part of this is because of the high cost and disarray of the film industry when it comes to deciding on a format for retail disc sales. Some studios have taken sides - others have hedged their bets and offer titles in both formats. Competing technologies rarely co-exist for long, but it's been known to happen. Are we looking at a long war of attrition and small gains, or a decisive point where one camp will throw in the towel?

Simply put, we think that the smart studios are the ones that are hedging their bets and providing both formats. Why alienate part of your potential customer base and/or make it more complicated to get back into the game if one format does indeed rise to overwhelming dominance? Because of the decline over the past decade or so in movie theater attendance, studios are finding that their bread is becoming more heavily buttered by disc sales. True, it's more expensive in the short term to produce both formats, but at least they're covering their bases. We can understand that. Of course, by the same token, if no one chooses sides, who's to say that this format conflict will ever come to a resolution?
Click to expand...

Thanks for reading!
 
2007:
Bluray: 700,000 discs sold
HD-DVD: 310,000 discs sold
(so far, of course)

its over. Even if only 5% of PS3 owners buy movies regularly, the PS3 hardware sales curve will ensure bluray continues to come out on top. Simply put, hd-dvd hardware unit sales cannot match that pace.

This article is extremely late to the party, and recommending dual format players..dear God what is wrong with you people?

"There's big HD-DVD news today as well. Toshiba has confirmed that they've cut the prices of all their HD-DVD players pretty dramatically. They've dropped their HD-A2 and HD-A20 by $100 each (to $399 and $499 respectively). The higher-end HD-XA2 has been dropped $200 to $799. The price changes officially take effect on 4/1. You can read more here at Twice. We've also heard that Microsoft has cut the price of its Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on drive by about $70 (taking it from $199 to $130)."
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents by way of:
http://twice.com/article/CA6427200.html

HD-dvd is enacting the desperation price cuts to move product so they don't get stuck with it when Universal, the only real holdout on the hd-dvd side goes neutral/bluray. There are multiple rumors floating around that Universal has been investigating bluray production recently.
 
response from Toshiba regarding sales:

It really doesn't take a keen eye for news these days to spot the all-out PR blitz by team Blu-ray to convince the masses that the format war is over and Blu-ray has won. Now Toshiba is finally sticking up for itself, in specific response to Blu-ray's recent CeBIT press conference. Olivier Van Wynendaele, Deputy General manager of HD DVD at Toshiba, calls the Blu-ray claims "propaganda" and disputes the Blu-ray points. For instance, the new 3:1 sales figure being touted by the Blu-ray Disc Association in regards to Blu-ray to HD DVD sales is claimed by Wynendaele to be artificially inflated by free Blu-ray movie vouchers being redeemed by PlayStation 3 owners. He also notes that Toshiba has sold 200,000 HD DVD players in the US, in comparison to the 30,000 standalone Blu-ray players sold, and that it's not clear yet how many Blu-ray movies the two million PS3 owners are going to be watching. Olivier also promised that Toshiba will undercut Sony prices every step of the way, and made it clear that while HD players account for less than 1% of DVD player sales, it's way too early to call the war for either side.
 
Typo fixed - Kyle

Also, it seems the author left out a huge plus for HD-DVD (in my opinion): Region-Free encoding. This means that some of the Blu-ray exclusive studios will have films available on HD-DVD in Europe. You can import them easily enough for about what the typical Blu-Ray of HD-DVD combo sales for in the retail market.

Whatever the sales figures say, I still think both formats will be around for a while.
 
both bluray and HD DVD share the same video and audio codex (effectively). the only major difference is 2 things:
1. physical standards
2. Interactivity: BD-J for bluray and HDi for hd dvd.

and there's only 1 minor thing:
1. in order to be backwards compatible, the method in which HD DVD wraps a 'core' track in Dolby or DTS is a bit different than how BluRay does it and it'll affect how playback devices access it.

outside of those things, they're EXACTLY alike, practically speaking :eek:.

think about this, if you own an HD DVD burner OR BluRay burner right now you can technically burn HD DVD filestructure in udf 2.5 onto a BluRay blank disc or you can burn a BluRay filestrcture udf 2.6 onto an HD DVD blank disc and have a combo player play both back with ease.

it's like burning smaller SD-DVD video_ts folders to CDR's. your DVD player will read those CDR's as a DVD! duh!
 
Well, I work in the business...We put together home theater systems for our clients. It turns out that in high end theaters we aren't selling ANY HD/Blu-Ray/DVD players at all. People are supplying PS3s. Yes, a customer will lay down $20k for a theater and use a PS3 as the main media device. Do I agree, no. Is it smart on their behalf...Yes. As a matter of fact, the main reason I bought a PS3 is because I didn't want to shell out the $1000 for the Samsung Blu-Ray player and the PS3 offered so much more. I've seen the PS3 running on some pretty nice gear, and let me tell you, there was no way to tell it was a PS3 vs a stand alone player.

There's only one major drawback in my opinion (to using the PS3), and that is that the PS3's remote is Bluetooth (or whatever), and can't be controlled by a custom remote like a Pronto. It's not IR. This causes some issues in setting up and ease of use.

My money's on Blu-Ray in this one though. Disney alone is enough to make that decision for the consumers...
 
Very good article. I found it very informative as to the state of the format war.
I'm a poor college student right now and I don't have a HD TV, a 360, can't afford a PS3 and the Wii isn't in HD, so I don't really have to make a decision yet.
But I use DVD's for data storage more than actually watching movies, and strictly from that point of view, the availability of Blu-Ray technology and it's storage capacity mkaes me lean in their favor. Secretly however I really want to like HD-DVD more I don't know why, and I don't have a reason to at this point.
 
There is also the distinct possibility that one format will kill the other format off only to fail because of lack of consumer interest / willingness to shell out thousands of dollars to join the HD generation.

Just because one formats beats the other, it still has to win over the general public...the toughest battle of them all.
 
Why didn't the article cover the fact most people would like backward compatibility with their player? HD-DVD players can play standard DVDs and BlueRay can't from what I understand (please correct me - I'm still learning). Wouldn't this abililty to play your current library of movies AND future HD movies be valuable to most consumers?
 
CypHill said:
Why didn't the article cover the fact most people would like backward compatibility with their player? HD-DVD players can play standard DVDs and BlueRay can't from what I understand (please correct me - I'm still learning). Wouldn't this abililty to play your current library of movies AND future HD movies be valuable to most consumers?
Click to expand...


I don't really think it is an issue. Most people that want to view HD disks already own DVD players.
 
Take it from a moderator of the High-Def Digest forums...HD DVD has no dash in it. It is just
2 capitalized letters, a space, then 3 more capitalized letters. At least you spelled Blu-ray
correctly.:D

People mispell both formats all the time so don't take this personally.
 
CypHill said:
Why didn't the article cover the fact most people would like backward compatibility with their player? HD-DVD players can play standard DVDs and BlueRay can't from what I understand (please correct me - I'm still learning). Wouldn't this abililty to play your current library of movies AND future HD movies be valuable to most consumers?
Click to expand...

Blu-Ray players can play back standard DVD's.
 
blu-ray and HD-dvd both can play regular dvd's.

Either I have nothing but rich friends or more people have HDtv then all the reports claim because out of the 20 some people I know they all have HDtv's, not all of them have a blu-ray/hd-dvd players but they all have HDtv, and so do I, and if you go in to a store to buy a new tv like 95% of them are HDtv's. So logicly it seems that eventually everyone has to have an HDtv because TV’s don't last forever and you will have to buy a new one eventually.

Sense eventually all\most people will have HDtv's in the future which ever format wins will be here for a while it looks like. It looks like Blu-ray's got it even if HD-dvd under cuts because buy undercutting it just shows they are in trouble.
 
CypHill said:
Why didn't the article cover the fact most people would like backward compatibility with their player? HD-DVD players can play standard DVDs and BlueRay can't from what I understand (please correct me - I'm still learning). Wouldn't this abililty to play your current library of movies AND future HD movies be valuable to most consumers?
Click to expand...
BD is backwards compatible. interesting what VolvoR wrote cause that's what I did and why not. quickly checking, the cheapest BD player up here is still over 1000. buying a ps3 was a no brainer when I saw motorstorm and other titles. I got my much wanted BD player AND the ps3 gaming system in one. now if the xbox had the HD I'm not sure what route I would have taken

bring on LOTR!!!
 
snowcat said:
Blu-Ray players can play back standard DVD's.
Click to expand...

Yes thanks.. I just read a faq on Blu-Ray.com and that basically answers my question. Blu-Ray should win I would think.. better technology (higher cost) will win out not like back in the day. These days so many people live way beyond their means that cost isn't entirely as much as an issue as it used to be.
 
Unless the studio support changes (and the people like disney decide to support both) can't see anyone but blue ray winning in the disk formats.

That said in the end downloadable content will become the true winner - which is what the new Xbox 360 is aimed at.

If the format wars continue for another year or two I wouldn't be suprised if many potential customers don't bother getting either but end up with some HD media box containing a terrabyte or two of HD and the ability to buy movies from some web company which are downloaded onto it.

This is a superior format as you don't require the disks - so no having to put disks in/take disks out the player, or wait 30 secs for it to load up (harddisks are much faster) - the HD media box will also understand all the movies you have allowing you to browse through them from the TV, add bookmarks, etc.

Support for this is going to come sooner then you think - I think that many service providers have realised this is the future and along with media companies (who because of music are quite happy with downloading content) are preparing to launch this service.
 
I am still waiting for a winner and for prices to come down to the $100-$150 range. I watch mostly anime, with the occassional new release thrown in. I have two HD sets, but DVDs still look very good to me. I do see the difference between HD movies on TV and DVDs, but they aren't that overwhelming.

I am also looking for movies that are in both DVD and HD formats, so that I could play them in portable/car DVD players (especially Disney films for the kids).
 
It appears studios are forced to use (pay for) AACS with Blu-ray as apposed to HD DVD, and that seems to cost a nice bundle for small studios. link


I see no mention of H.264 / AVC / MPEG 4 Part 10, which rivals (beats?) VC-1 when it comes to psnr/bitrate or any of the audio formats. I believe HD DVD has some support for AAC while Blu-ray does not, but I'm not sure on that.
 
sbuckler said:
Unless the studio support changes (and the people like disney decide to support both) can't see anyone but blue ray winning in the disk formats.

That said in the end downloadable content will become the true winner - which is what the new Xbox 360 is aimed at.

If the format wars continue for another year or two I wouldn't be suprised if many potential customers don't bother getting either but end up with some HD media box containing a terrabyte or two of HD and the ability to buy movies from some web company which are downloaded onto it.

This is a superior format as you don't require the disks - so no having to put disks in/take disks out the player, or wait 30 secs for it to load up (harddisks are much faster) - the HD media box will also understand all the movies you have allowing you to browse through them from the TV, add bookmarks, etc.

Support for this is going to come sooner then you think - I think that many service providers have realised this is the future and along with media companies (who because of music are quite happy with downloading content) are preparing to launch this service.
Click to expand...

I cant name one real movie fan who would be enthusiastic about downloading crippled material. Downloads would likely come in at 720p and be missing the uncompressed audio. Having "a tb or two" is worthless when you want to download 30-50 gig at once for one movie. And honestly, who in the hell has fast enough lines for this, the few people with fiber to the home? You're living in fantasy land.
 
I didn't see any mention in the article of combo players that will handle both Blu-Ray and HD DVD. LG is marketing the first one now for $1100 list, which is in line with the stand-alone Blu-Ray players. Prices will inevitably drop and hopefully the format war will fizzle. Universal players didn't do jack for SACD and DVD Audio, though. I think the HD video disc war is headed the same direction.

Sony's NIH/mutually assured destruction strategy for new consumer electronics formats is going to cost us (the consumers) again.
 
The other possibility that no one is considering is that there may be no winner of the current format war. Quite simply, we may be left with two losers when the dust settles.

Consumer apathy is high. Watching standard DVD content on a hi-def TV is pretty impressive in its own right. Most folks just don't see the need to upgrade.

Ultimately, this format war may be irrelevant. We're probably (and hopefully) looking at the last generation of optical media. Superior options are available and are almost affordable. The optical disc, whatever standard, is a relic from the 80's and is something that we're better off without.
 
Tutelary said:
I cant name one real movie fan who would be enthusiastic about downloading crippled material. Downloads would likely come in at 720p and be missing the uncompressed audio. Having "a tb or two" is worthless when you want to download 30-50 gig at once for one movie. And honestly, who in the hell has fast enough lines for this, the few people with fiber to the home? You're living in fantasy land.
Click to expand...

Who said it had to be crippled?

Full movies fit onto a 15gig HD DVD layer at the moment (the other layer being used for original DVD). Assuming a 4mbit connection gives you about 350k/sec download it would take 12 hours to download (i.e. overnight). With a 1 terrabtye HD you can fit 66 films which is plenty and remember if you don't have space you can delete it but it's still yours to download again. It can be done even today, but that's only todays technology - in a few years time a 4mbit connection will seem very slow, and a 1 terrabyte HD very small.

The other thing you have to remember is that although there are a number of people who will really care about getting the 1080 version, your average person will be quite happy with 720 - in fact it'll be all their HD TV can do.
 
Tutelary said:
I cant name one real movie fan who would be enthusiastic about downloading crippled material. Downloads would likely come in at 720p and be missing the uncompressed audio. Having "a tb or two" is worthless when you want to download 30-50 gig at once for one movie. And honestly, who in the hell has fast enough lines for this, the few people with fiber to the home? You're living in fantasy land.
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QFT! I like your choice of "crippled". who wants crap quality after all I've spent but we'll see how it ends up. I dont generally do rips anymore either cause I want 100% so I still rent....I'll take fiber =P

mentok1982 said:
Take it from a moderator of the High-Def Digest forums...HD DVD has no dash in it. It is just
2 capitalized letters, a space, then 3 more capitalized letters. At least you spelled Blu-ray
correctly.:D

People mispell both formats all the time so don't take this personally.
Click to expand...
pfffft, mind fixing all spelling on the net too ...must B lonely atop your perch :rolleyes:
 
All I want is dual-format players that fully support both formats for $500 or less........this year.

Both formats are good.
 
sbuckler said:
Who said it had to be crippled?

Full movies fit onto a 15gig HD DVD layer at the moment (the other layer being used for original DVD). Assuming a 4mbit connection gives you about 350k/sec download it would take 12 hours to download (i.e. overnight). With a 1 terrabtye HD you can fit 66 films which is plenty and remember if you don't have space you can delete it but it's still yours to download again. It can be done even today, but that's only todays technology - in a few years time a 4mbit connection will seem very slow, and a 1 terrabyte HD very small.

The other thing you have to remember is that although there are a number of people who will really care about getting the 1080 version, your average person will be quite happy with 720 - in fact it'll be all their HD TV can do.
Click to expand...

Full movies fitting are debateable. It would depend on the length of the movie and what its encoded in. I doubt many people will be happy with LOTR in 15 gig.

When people want to watch a movie they want to see it right then, they dont want to download overnight, the very idea is absurd.

66 films might seem to be "plenty" to you, but I have hundreds, and many people have thousands. You folks who argue for the death of all physical media seem to be extreme techheads with no real reasoning behind the choice other than YOU want it.

As for 720 vs 1080, is there even a fight over this? Why have lesser quality when you can have the full 1080p and uncompressed audio? Why should the people who HAVE good equipment not benefit from that?

Also: you peg hd dvd combos as having one layer dvd and one hd dvd, which is wrong. They are flippers with one side one format and the other side the other.
 
If I may, I'd like to say something I truly believe. That is the PS3 will eventually end up winning the console war b/c it's a cheap Blu-Ray player.

The article said it itself: Xbox 360 will only offer HD DVD with a separate drive, and the newer version will not come with an HD DVD drive. That, plus the fact that 5 studios already are supporting Blu-Ray, and again, PS3 being a cheap BR player, gives it a serious edge. I'm taking this all away from the article. I'm also basing this on the massive sales of the PS2: one reason it was such a huge success was because it was a cheap DVD player.

Granted, some people including myself have had some stutter probems with PS2 playing DVDs, but it doesn't change the fact that that was a huge factor in its success.

I also maintain BR will win the format war for the same reason the article does: greater support, and again, PS3 being a cheap player.

My final thought: if you just can't decided on which format you want, buy a dual player, like the LG one. Ya it's pricey, but meh, it's there.
 
DoomRulz said:
If I may, I'd like to say something I truly believe. That is the PS3 will eventually end up winning the console war b/c it's a cheap Blu-Ray player.

The article said it itself: Xbox 360 will only offer HD DVD with a separate drive, and the newer version will not come with an HD DVD drive. That, plus the fact that 5 studios already are supporting Blu-Ray, and again, PS3 being a cheap BR player, gives it a serious edge. I'm taking this all away from the article. I'm also basing this on the massive sales of the PS2: one reason it was such a huge success was because it was a cheap DVD player.

Granted, some people including myself have had some stutter probems with PS2 playing DVDs, but it doesn't change the fact that that was a huge factor in its success.

I also maintain BR will win the format war for the same reason the article does: greater support, and again, PS3 being a cheap player.

My final thought: if you just can't decided on which format you want, buy a dual player, like the LG one. Ya it's pricey, but meh, it's there.
Click to expand...

Agreed, which is what I stated originally. Sales of HD dvd hardware will never catch up to the curve of PS3 hardware sales. Even SLOW PS3 sales are better than good HD dvd sales, and PS3 sales will only continue to get better as the system drops in price and more games are released.

If even 5% of people buying PS3s use them to play movies on, bluray will outpace HD dvd heavily. Some of you should check out avsforum.com for the sheer volume of people who purchased one specifically to play movies on.

I'm no fan of Sony at all, but I'm not going to ignore reality. Toshiba has been giving away 5 free HD dvds with purchase for months, and before that it was 3 free, and they are STILL losing by a wide margin in 07. Its over folks.
 
I think this format war is totally irrelivent. The average person will be amazed at how there old DVD collections look on their 720p HDTV anyway. Sure there will be the A/V guys that want the best of the best but they can hook up there Blue ray and HD dvd up next to thier laser disc player in thier entertainment center. Buy the time this "war" gets settled something like holographic media will be available and blow both formats into the bargain rack at Big Lots
 
Tutelary said:
When people want to watch a movie they want to see it right then, they dont want to download overnight, the very idea is absurd.
Click to expand...

So do you live by a 24 hour video store? - the moment you want something you just get it right then - or do you buy it (probably from a cheap shop on the internet) and then wait several days for it to arrive? Significantly longer then 12 hours I expect. Perhaps you've bought the disk already and that's what you mean in your comment - well obviously you've downloaded already too - in which case you don't have to fiddle around with disks and waiting for it to load with the media box - it's there right then waiting for you.

Tutelary said:
66 films might seem to be "plenty" to you, but I have hundreds, and many people have thousands. You folks who argue for the death of all physical media seem to be extreme techheads with no real reasoning behind the choice other than YOU want it.
Click to expand...

Very few people buy hundreds of DVD's and require them all instantly on tap. Most people would be happy with 50 or 60 available at one time (the rest are still there to download even if your house burns down). Obviously in a few years when you have a 10 terrabyte HD this will be less of an issue. Anyway I suspect in fact a lot more people rent then buy, which the download system does very well.

Tutelary said:
As for 720 vs 1080, is there even a fight over this? Why have lesser quality when you can have the full 1080p and uncompressed audio? Why should the people who HAVE good equipment not benefit from that?
Click to expand...

Most people don't have that good equipment - most people won't care the audio is compressed - a huge % of people are happy with standard definition TV or even lower quality downloads off the net. Look at music - which format is winning downloadable MP3 or one of the higher quality CD replacements?

Anyway you can download 1080p if you want?

Tutelary said:
Also: you peg hd dvd combos as having one layer dvd and one hd dvd, which is wrong. They are flippers with one side one format and the other side the other.
Click to expand...

Point accepted.
 
WtBadAss said:
I think this format war is totally irrelivent. The average person will be amazed at how there old DVD collections look on their 720p HDTV anyway. Sure there will be the A/V guys that want the best of the best but they can hook up there Blue ray and HD dvd up next to thier laser disc player in thier entertainment center. Buy the time this "war" gets settled something like holographic media will be available and blow both formats into the bargain rack at Big Lots
Click to expand...

What are you basing that on?
 
WtBadAss said:
The average person will be amazed at how there old DVD collections look on their 720p HDTV anyway.
Click to expand...

The average person will be amazed when they notice that a lot of the HD programming looks better than DVD. Then they will start to look into High Definition DVDs. They might be scared off by the price, but they will understand why they are there.




To Steve/Kyle:

I liked the article overall, and anyone who thinks you are pro-Sony needs to have their head examined.
 
sbuckler said:
So do you live by a 24 hour video store? - the moment you want something you just get it right then - or do you buy it (probably from a cheap shop on the internet) and then wait several days for it to arrive? Significantly longer then 12 hours I expect. Perhaps you've bought the disk already and that's what you mean in your comment - well obviously you've downloaded already too - in which case you don't have to fiddle around with disks and waiting for it to load with the media box - it's there right then waiting for you.
Click to expand...

That doesn't make any sense. If it takes, say 12 hours to download a video, you wouldn't be able to watch it that night anyway and would have to wait until the next day to watch it. Just like you would have to wait until the morning to go to the video store. So having a 24/7 video store makes no difference if you can't get it within minutes by downloading it anyway.
 
sbuckler said:
Most people don't have that good equipment - most people won't care the audio is compressed - a huge % of people are happy with standard definition TV or even lower quality downloads off the net. Look at music - which format is winning downloadable MP3 or one of the higher quality CD replacements?
Click to expand...

So in your world everyone is happy with VHS? You ruin your own arguement. SDtv wont exist forever either way, so its a moot point. The bar will be raised across the board, including video media.

As for "do you live next to a 24 hour video store" no, but I dont rent anything either. I buy from retail on release.
 
Holographic Disc

I feel it is reasonable to assume that it is only a matter of time before holographic replaces both HD DVD and Blue ray no matter how many Ps3's get sold since in 5 years new consoles will be on the market. Plus It seems alot of people having this debate forget that the best technology does not always win the tech wars. I know you guys building custom home theaters etc will see alot of people asking about which is better, but I bet if you look at the number of all things blue ray or hd dvd sold compared to how many regular dvds get sold we would find the outcome. It just seems that not many people besides tech heads and movie buffs even give a crap about either format. And without average joe trying to buy the product, both are destined to go the way of the mini-disk
 
DoomRulz said:
My final thought: if you just can't decided on which format you want, buy a dual player, like the LG one. Ya it's pricey, but meh, it's there.
Click to expand...

What about upscaling DVD players? I have a 720p/1080i LCD and a $150 universal player that upscales nicely. Hell, a decent upscaling DVD player is only $100 now! (Sony, of all makers, has the best one for the money) I will wait until true HD players are well under $200 and it is either dual-format or whatever I want (I.E. format war decided) is available on it. In the mean time why hasn't UPSCALING been mentioned as a viable option during this BS format war?
 
How can someone write an article "comparing" these formats and completely omit HD DVD's biggest benefits. HDi, player standardization(hello ethernet), and consumer friendly DRM. Unfortunately everyone seems to turn a blind eye to these serious pluses, but o well.
 
danbfree said:
What about upscaling DVD players? I have a 720p/1080i LCD and a $150 universal player that upscales nicely. Hell, a decent upscaling DVD player is only $100 now! (Sony, of all makers, has the best one for the money) I will wait until true HD players are well under $200 and it is either dual-format or whatever I want (I.E. format war decided) is available on it. In the mean time why hasn't UPSCALING been mentioned as a viable option during this BS format war?
Click to expand...

because unless you get a REALLY good upscaling player upscaling is shit. Why would I pay hundreds of dollars for an upscaler when I can pay the difference and go HD?

I have no idea why people are so in love with upscaling. I think they are in love with the concept of it and decide its somehow "better" in their minds. Upscaling is crap on any cheap player, across the board.
 
Tutelary said:
2007:
Bluray: 700,000 discs sold
HD-DVD: 310,000 discs sold
(so far, of course)
Click to expand...

Are those movies sold or just discs sold?

Every PS3 game comes out on a Bluray disc. Toshiba could include an HD DVD frisbee in every box of cereal. Neither should make a difference in the format war.
 
rabident said:
Are those movies sold or just discs sold?

Every PS3 game comes out on a Bluray disc. Toshiba could include an HD DVD frisbee in every box of cereal. Neither should make a difference in the format war.
Click to expand...

:rolleyes: Its movies sold, obviously.

As stated, Toshiba is giving away 5 free discs with purchase of a player. They were giving away 3. They basically ARE including them in boxes of cereal.
 
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