Video card makers - Speculation on the buisness, not the cards

vengence

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/25624745

For those of you who aren't following the stocks, AMD has been dropping. Infact, it's really dropped. AMD's stock touched 4.75 today. That's a market capital (shares*price) valuation of 2.9B of the company. When they aquired ATI, it was for 5.4B.

It's dropped to nearly 20% of it's 2 year's high. Not only that, Intel has a market capital of 115B atm. Yes, Intel is currently worth 40 times more than AMD. What's more, Intel gross's the current valuation of AMD every 26.5 days.

Now I'm not saying AMD is going under tommorow. Because they're not. But things are not looking good. And frankly, I like competition. But honestly, I'm scared. When Nvidia dropped, I wasn't really worried. It doesn't have debt. AMD does.

That's the bad news. Now for the good.

AMD/ATI has launched the 4850 and 4870. If AMD is going to have a chance, these need to gain lots of market share. These are both high end parts, so the volume on these isn't goint to be much, but rumor has it they are able to make these things really, really cheap.

Next week earnings come out for AMD. Nvidia of course lowered thier Q2 earnings expectations (they will come out on the 12th of August). One of the major questions is what is going to happen on AMDs earnings. Now I'm not sure when the money from the 4850s and 4870s show up on AMDs balance sheets relative to the release of the cards. But it should show up a month or two before the cards are released as they sell them to the card makers.

Long story short, AMD NEEDS to beat the expectations coming out next week. A lot of people think they won't. ATI may have "caught Nvidia with its pants down" on this card release, however AMD may be doing so badly, that ATI can't prop up AMD. And they won't be spending as much on research for the next card as they are literally running out of money. (Posting losses Q after Q will do that to you :().

Where does this all leave gaming? Do you think AMD will survive the next year? ATI will survive in some form, I know that, that division of the company is making money. It may get sold off, but they will survive.
 
Seeing the [H] news page, it seems that once one tech corparate goes down, the rest will follow. Being a real world witness of the mass dying of Nvidias mobile parts and seeing how 48xx series being welcomed with open arms, I predict AMD will do well in coming times.

ps. One must remember also that even AMD CPU deprtment has gained share if you compare it to the last years situation. Think [H] had a news story on this too, but can't be sure.
 
The stock market itself have gone down. No biggy for long term investors. A drop in stocks for a month or ten doesn't matter that much. Its the year results that matters most and prospect might do more for the company then the current stock price one month.

AMD would most likely have an option in any case to seperate ATI out again, especially now that its doing so well. This means a strong ATI stock and some capital returned to AMD.

I wouldn't worry much if Nvidia or ATI should have a short time decrease. Especially not now when stocks are falling for companies in general.
 
Microsoft and Sony are going to buy them up and put them to work on graphics for future consoles.
 
It is the nature of the stock market to go up and down (especially in the tech stock area).
 
Microsoft and Sony are going to buy them up and put them to work on graphics for future consoles.

Microsoft wouldn't buy them.. I could see some type of partnership. Sony, hmmm, not sure if they'd want to go that route. The problem is they aren't making money. And the question is how do you make them consistently profitable. I don't think there's an easy answer for that one.

When its all said and done this year, nVidia will make money this year and AMD won't. Great tech is one thing, but a great business model makes great tech on a consistent basis possible.

I'd love to see AMD make money. I don't want them to go under at all. Hopefully they gotten the celebrations out of the way for the 4800 and are ready for GT XXX (that actually isn't a bad part number) and Nehalem. They've got a lot of work to do!
 
The problem is their total Equity is at 2.64B. That means thier within 10% of being a target to be bought and liquidated.
 
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