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TSMC N2 Pricing

Supply and demand. Simply put: TSMC would lower their prices if they weren't selling and they'd raise the prices if they were selling too fast.

Essentially, if you could sell 10,000 wafers at $20,000 each, or sell 10,000 wafers at $30,000 each, what would you do?
 
Building a 2nm semiconductor manufacturing plant that produces 50,000 wafers per month would cost around $28 billion

If at 30,000 they have 80% super nice net margin by marginal unit, just to pay it back without counting interest would be what 23 months....

If you want a raw very low for that kind of risk 15% composite annual return, without counting interest or inflation, it will happen after 36 months, which could be when that node stop selling at very high price.

So much stuff have yet to be on the best n3 too, that outside Apple maybe no one (again) will be on N2 and what matter for the non apple customer is n3 volume and price.
 
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Consumers will start to pullback even more if the prices of their electronic gadgets keep going up. That kind of increase would raise the price up on a iPhone to a point where demand destruction will happen.
 
Gideon said:
Consumers will start to pullback even more if the prices of their electronic gadgets keep going up. That kind of increase would raise the price up on a iPhone to a point where demand destruction will happen.
Click to expand...
Yeah node shrinks aren’t keeping up with the price increase not at all. Transistors get much smaller cache remains the same, power decreases so frequencies can go up and keep the same power draw as a whole. You pay extra for the bleeding edge so Apple who is using it to make chips for phones which are tiny are fine. They can keep that cheap for them and continue to get their $600 for each phone they sell. But Nvidia, AMD, or anybody else making large chips with lots of logic it’s gonna be a bad time.

I don’t look forward to what GPU’s on that node will cost unless the size of those chips comes down a lot.
 

TSMC to Lose 2nm Orders? NVIDIA and Qualcomm Reportedly Mull to Team up with Samsung​


With rumors indicating that Apple, one of TSMC’s most critical customers, may delay the adoption of the foundry giant’s 2nm process until 2026, a Commercial Times report, citing Chosun Daily and SamMobile, now suggests that NVIDIA and Qualcomm are following suit, as they are reportedly mulling to switch to Samsung’s 2nm for cutting-edge chips.

High costs and limited production capacity may cause the two U.S. chip heavyweights to have second thoughts, the reports note.

A latest report from The Bell suggests that Qualcomm’s “Snapdragon 8 Elite 2,” scheduled for release in the second half of 2025, will be produced using TSMC’s N3P process. Samsung reportedly had competed for this contract but ultimately lost out.

Would the company be able to turn the tide with 2nm? The Chosun Daily report suggests that this may represent Samsung’s final opportunity for its foundry business, which is currently facing multi-billion-dollar losses.

https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...comm-reportedly-mull-to-team-up-with-samsung/
 
Lakados said:
Yeah node shrinks aren’t keeping up with the price increase not at all. Transistors get much smaller cache remains the same, power decreases so frequencies can go up and keep the same power draw as a whole. You pay extra for the bleeding edge so Apple who is using it to make chips for phones which are tiny are fine. They can keep that cheap for them and continue to get their $600 for each phone they sell. But Nvidia, AMD, or anybody else making large chips with lots of logic it’s gonna be a bad time.

I don’t look forward to what GPU’s on that node will cost unless the size of those chips comes down a lot.
Click to expand...
You can always combine other nodes to bring down cost, at least that's possibly what AMD will be doing with Zen 6
 
Marees said:

TSMC to Lose 2nm Orders? NVIDIA and Qualcomm Reportedly Mull to Team up with Samsung​


With rumors indicating that Apple, one of TSMC’s most critical customers, may delay the adoption of the foundry giant’s 2nm process until 2026, a Commercial Times report, citing Chosun Daily and SamMobile, now suggests that NVIDIA and Qualcomm are following suit, as they are reportedly mulling to switch to Samsung’s 2nm for cutting-edge chips.

High costs and limited production capacity may cause the two U.S. chip heavyweights to have second thoughts, the reports note.

A latest report from The Bell suggests that Qualcomm’s “Snapdragon 8 Elite 2,” scheduled for release in the second half of 2025, will be produced using TSMC’s N3P process. Samsung reportedly had competed for this contract but ultimately lost out.

Would the company be able to turn the tide with 2nm? The Chosun Daily report suggests that this may represent Samsung’s final opportunity for its foundry business, which is currently facing multi-billion-dollar losses.

https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...comm-reportedly-mull-to-team-up-with-samsung/
Click to expand...
It would be good if Samsung could manage it. Sounds like we won't find out for a while though.
 
Prince Valiant said:
It would be good if Samsung could manage it. Sounds like we won't find out for a while though.
Click to expand...
While I don’t hold too much hope for Samsung’s advanced nodes right now their new management structure is supposedly working hard to turn it back around.

TSMC’s 2N process has been rumoured to be having significant problems since at least April of 2023. TSMC was brazenly confident that they could make it work on their existing machinery and wouldn’t need to spend billions like Intel did on ASML’s latest and greatest machines. Not that they could buy them even if they wanted too because Intel bought the whole supply at quite the premium. But now it seems that TSMC is encountering all the same issues at that scale that Intel and Samsung have, requiring a redesign of signalling and power delivery as they are Interfering with one another.
TSMC had previously announced that their 1.6N node would be the first generation on the new ASML hardware and that was going to be some time in 2026, I wouldn’t be surprised if TSMC does a relaxed 2N process much like they did for 3 and mostly skip 2N and push the 1.6 stuff instead on the new hardware.
 
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Marees said:

TSMC to Lose 2nm Orders? NVIDIA and Qualcomm Reportedly Mull to Team up with Samsung​


With rumors indicating that Apple, one of TSMC’s most critical customers, may delay the adoption of the foundry giant’s 2nm process until 2026, a Commercial Times report, citing Chosun Daily and SamMobile, now suggests that NVIDIA and Qualcomm are following suit, as they are reportedly mulling to switch to Samsung’s 2nm for cutting-edge chips.

High costs and limited production capacity may cause the two U.S. chip heavyweights to have second thoughts, the reports note.

A latest report from The Bell suggests that Qualcomm’s “Snapdragon 8 Elite 2,” scheduled for release in the second half of 2025, will be produced using TSMC’s N3P process. Samsung reportedly had competed for this contract but ultimately lost out.

Would the company be able to turn the tide with 2nm? The Chosun Daily report suggests that this may represent Samsung’s final opportunity for its foundry business, which is currently facing multi-billion-dollar losses.

https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...comm-reportedly-mull-to-team-up-with-samsung/
Click to expand...
Looking into it, Samsung's 2nm process looks to be a refinement of their existing SF3 process, the new process called SF2 is what they are calling 2nm.

SF3 is supposedly pretty good but they failed to gather any customers for it after it launched late with a lot of headaches losing out to TSMC 3N's more relaxed variants.
But now that the headaches are mostly solved, and TSMC's 3N processes have gone up in price yet again, Samsung's SF2 process is looking really good for smaller lower power chips.

But SF2 is not anywhere close to as good at TSMC N2, it falls some place close to the TSMC N3P process, but it costs significantly less than TSMC N3P process.

So really SF2 is far more suited to small high volume low cost chips, I could easily see Qualcomm using it for modems or ethernet components, other high volume low cost parts.
Nvidia could use them for some of the chips on their upcoming products or possibly for their consumer ARM components.
 
haaa, Intel to the rescue! Nice seeing Samsung may get more business, competing. TSMC selling N2 wafers way more expensive, indicates to me no fear of what Intel will be doing, now if there was actual competition between these foundries, we would not be stuck with ever increasing prices on the best tech chips.
 
noko said:
haaa, Intel to the rescue! Nice seeing Samsung may get more business, competing. TSMC selling N2 wafers way more expensive, indicates to me no fear of what Intel will be doing, now if there was actual competition between these foundries, we would not be stuck with ever increasing prices on the best tech chips.
Click to expand...
This would be a great opportunity for Intel.... If they were competitive
 
Lakados said:
Yeah node shrinks aren’t keeping up with the price increase not at all.
Click to expand...
Or they are keeping up almost exactly with the price increase... thus the stagnation:

LmCtmoT57uZA8jqgWkz5Yo-1200-80.png
 
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