Tesla Could Make a $25,000 Electric Car in “About 3 Years,” Says Elon Musk

Discussion in '[H]ard|OCP Front Page News' started by Megalith, Aug 18, 2018.

  1. Megalith

    Megalith 24-bit/48kHz Staff Member

    Messages:
    12,474
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    YouTuber Marques Brownlee sat down with Elon Musk yesterday to discuss all things Tesla, and one intriguing comment from the CEO was the possibility of his company producing a $25,000 vehicle in “about 3 years.” It isn’t really a priority, however, as the queue is already quite full with the Model Y, Tesla Pickup, Tesla Semi, and next-generation Roadster.

    …it shows a willingness to potentially walk away from the “premium brand” factor with significantly less expensive vehicles. It’s not something that many other premium automakers have dared to do without using a separate brand, like BMW with Mini or Mercedes-Benz with Smart. That said, it certainly works into Tesla’s mission to accelerate the advent of electric transport. Cheaper vehicles reach even more people.
     
  2. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,322
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    If I lived someplace warm where electrics make sense maybe I’d care... hybrids made sense to me in Pennsylvania when I did the math. All electrics very much did not.

    My main problem with hybrids is that they are worse in the snow.
     
  3. travisty

    travisty Gawd

    Messages:
    616
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2016
    I understand the Leaf is bad in cold climates (i had one for 6 years here in Colorado) as the heater drains the battery but the Model 3 has been fantastic and should have plenty of battery for any heating i need and still have plenty of range.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2018
    Wierdo likes this.
  4. RPGWiZaRD

    RPGWiZaRD Gawd

    Messages:
    884
    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2009
    Elon needs to stop talking about future all the time (seems like his favorite subject) and focus on gettings his present business rolling smoother first.
     
  5. Twisted Kidney

    Twisted Kidney 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,088
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2013
    Whizzing in a thousand directions at once is going to eat that poor fool alive.
     
    Bowman15 likes this.
  6. Tak Ne

    Tak Ne [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,160
    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2008
    "Tesla Could Make a $25,000 Electric Car in “About 3 Years,”

    I know production is slow but 3 years to make 1 car? :giggle::giggle::giggle:

    Seriously though, this is a good thing and I hope they do it sooner.
     
  7. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    13,732
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2005
    25 thousand dollar initial investment, but how much do the batteries cost?
     
  8. viscountalpha

    viscountalpha 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,338
    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2011
    He is more likely going to hit that electric fence.
     
    Bowman15 and Armenius like this.
  9. Merc1138

    Merc1138 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,916
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2010
    You mean like the $35,000 model 3 they were supposed to be making, that no one is getting for $35,000 and they seem to be building in a priority based on most options(higher price) starting at the $45-$50k range and as high as $80k first for a year now?

    Yeah, I'm sure a $25k tesla with $30k in options will be something people will line right up for.
     
  10. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,007
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2005
    How are they worse (or perhaps I should ask why)?
     
  11. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,322
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    They do AWD differently. When I was looking at the Highlander Hybrid it was stated in the manual and is pretty much common knowledge on EV forums.

    Tesla’s aren’t exactly cars I’d drive in the snow anyways but in winter you’d burn so much power on just heat... and god forbid you get stuck in a storm. Last winter people from my work got stuck on a highway for 27 hours.
     
    Armenius and nilepez like this.
  12. XenIneX

    XenIneX Gawd

    Messages:
    717
    Joined:
    May 19, 2012
    Poor weather traction should actually be better in a well-designed EV -- much tighter, more granular traction control loop. Where they'd fall flat, though, is cold weather battery performance. Between the 5-10kw eaten by cabin and battery heating, and the reduced capacity of a cold battery, you could see substantially reduced range -- as much as 50% reduction, in 0F/-18C temperatures.


    ----------
    edit: wtf temperatures...
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2018
    PaulP and nilepez like this.
  13. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,007
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2005
    Not sure on the 3, but the S is 10-12k. That said, based on https://www.teslarati.com/how-long-will-tesla-battery-last-degradation/, the battery will likely be find for at least 10 years, maybe longer. The question is how much does routine maintenance on a Tesla run on average.

    I did read about a teslaloop car that hit 300k miles and their maintenance was under 11k (excluding tires). However, they did get a free battery swap at 200k miles (which isn't the norm). But still, if the battery lasts 200k miles, that'd probably be a 20 year Tesla for me (assuming the battery lasted that long, but I suspect the useful life of a Lion battery is 10 years (when it'd be at roughly 80% of the original capacity.
     
  14. filip

    filip Gawd

    Messages:
    867
    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    I misread th title and thought said in 3 weeks, lol. Godspeed.
     
  15. Disco_Stu_04

    Disco_Stu_04 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    339
    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2003
    Disagree, he's got a vision and that's great. His team is what's important on making it happen.

    How many businesses "make it" and then do nothing. Think off all the cell carriers, ISPs, etc. They stopped trying.
     
    SomeoneElse, Wierdo and Uvaman2 like this.
  16. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,322
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Yeah, in a well designed system. Maybe Tesla could do it.

    I was alluding to the energy use in winter with my comments. It’s not abnormal for us even in PA to have single digit weather. (0F, -18C). All that “waste” heat from an ICE isn’t so bad then.

    I know at least one girl that drives a Lotus uses a Subaru in the winter. I imagine the Tesla folks do the same.

    All electric has it’s purpose... I would just have a hard time suggesting it someplace with a winter if you don’t have a secondary car.
     
    Armenius likes this.
  17. Prod1702

    Prod1702 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    157
    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2005
    This is not correct. I live in MN and have a Prius with Snow tires and never had any issues with snow. Not sure where you got that hybrids are bad in snow. Also when talking about heat in the car, I still get around 50 mpg no problem with the heat set to auto at 70f.
     
  18. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,322
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Ugh, I said they were not as good, not that they were absolutely bad. Prius is known for having the wheel wells and air baffling torn off by the snow and ice though.

    And we were discussing the heat for an all electric. The Prius has an ICE it takes waste heat off of (and actually stores).
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2018
    Armenius and GoldenTiger like this.
  19. HockeyJon

    HockeyJon Gawd

    Messages:
    839
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2014
    Sounds feasible, given the fact that the $35,000 Model 3 is still nowhere to be found and they seem to have a chronic habit of missing self-imposed deadlines.
     
  20. SickBeast

    SickBeast Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    436
    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2012
    I just hope the Saudis don't take Tesla over. I'm quite disappointed Musk is even entertaining that possibility.
     
    Armenius likes this.
  21. Chunder

    Chunder Gawd

    Messages:
    516
    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Beats American taxpayers subsidizing this "self-made" billionaire for his personal gain ($8 billion and counting), while NASA, which has given us overwhelming returns on our small investment even when not properly funded, gets more and more funds stolen...

    Musk apologist attack with logical fallacies in 3... 2... 1...
     
    Armenius likes this.
  22. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    5,852
    Joined:
    May 27, 2001
    They aren't building the 35k model, you can't even order one. No conspiracy there, it simply doesn't exist at this point.
     
  23. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,969
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2004
    Even here in Sunny California, I notice a drop in mileage during winter.
    Combination of taking the longer to heat up, and some of the heat being directed to the cabin, causing the ICE to run more often.
    Same during the summer when the Air is running full blast. The compressor is electric and it drains the HV battery causing the ICE to run more often.

    It's not much, usually a couple miles per gallon.
     
  24. Term-X

    Term-X 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,391
    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2001
    Just so I'm clear here... is the issue with Tesla / Elon Musk or subsidies in general? Because subsidies is a thing that happens across many industries where a quite a number of people have benefited; some manage to turn it into a great amount of wealth by one method or another, most don't. By and large, it is how a lot of North American companies have entrenched themselves as as monopolies, oligopolies, etc.
     
  25. cjcox

    cjcox Gawd

    Messages:
    899
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2004
    With Elon, a day is like a thousand years and a thousand years is like a day.
     
    Bowman15, Armenius and kirbyrj like this.
  26. travisty

    travisty Gawd

    Messages:
    616
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2016
    What subsidies are you talking about here? If it's the EV car credit Tesla will no longer have that come the end of the year (all other car brands except probably GM will still have it)

    If you're talking about SpaceX and the deals with NASA, it was a great investment by NASA as SpaceX has cut the cost of launches tremendously.
     
    PaulP likes this.
  27. travisty

    travisty Gawd

    Messages:
    616
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2016
    ... i still don't understand why people are surprised. This is how Tesla has rolled out all their other cars. The most expensive builds are available first followed by the cheaper models. Anyone that thought the Model 3 would be any different was/is delusional.

    $42.5k (after fed + state rebates) is quite the bargain for such an awesome car as the Model 3.
     
  28. clockdogg

    clockdogg Gawd

    Messages:
    531
    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2007
    *Batteries Not Included
     
    Armenius likes this.
  29. gxp500

    gxp500 Gawd

    Messages:
    721
    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2015
    Habit? It's an art that musk excels at, double his timelines and its believable.
     
    HockeyJon likes this.
  30. Wierdo

    Wierdo [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,685
    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2011
    He eventually gets there, it's just his timelines are optimistic, add a couple years to them.

    It's not for lack of trying, he just likes to set aggressive standards, works hard toward getting there, and then understandably fails to hit them, but it does motivate him to get there faster nonetheless even if late by his own estimate.

    This is another good reason to go private, as he can continue to aim higher and risk failing but achieving greater progress, instead of chasing short-sighted quarterly results.

    People are used to short term thinking, it's a mental cancer inhibiting innovation, nobody wants to be a risk taker, it's become some kinda bad word.
     
    Uvaman2 likes this.
  31. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,460
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    I think wall street's routine short term thinking produces short term thinking CEOs, with a quarter to quarter mentality and an extreme aversion to profit reduction that can ruin many companies. Its sad really. Its disgraceful so many multi billion dollar companies ( on profit and reserves) innovate relatively so little.
    Its really incredible in the wrong way i mean.
     
  32. PaulP

    PaulP Gawd

    Messages:
    624
    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2016
    The Elon hate/envy is strong with this one. No amount of facts or rational arguments will have any effect at all.
     
  33. RealBeast

    RealBeast Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    484
    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    So is this Elon, his Ambien, or a doobie talkin'? :rolleyes:
     
    Bowman15 and Armenius like this.
  34. Burticus

    Burticus 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,230
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    They could make a $35k car today, but would they? The waiting list for $100k model S's is near infinite.

    Throw in some E and a little heroin and you have the Carrie Fisher afternoon special.
     
  35. Tsumi

    Tsumi [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    12,555
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2010
    California's winter blend gas gets lower mileage than the summer blend gas. Ever notice how gas typically gets cheaper in the winter? It's because they're switching to the cheaper winter blend.
     
  36. DeeFrag

    DeeFrag [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    5,369
    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2005
    In tesla-speak that means a $45000 car in 7 years.
     
    Armenius, DF-1 and kirbyrj like this.
  37. Gorankar

    Gorankar [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    14,556
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2000
    Is there even a market for an all electric in that price range? All electric cars are still generally second or third cars in a household. I mean, sure, we can build numerous use cases for a $25K all electric, (provided it had at least a 150 mile range), but few where they provide better value than a $25K ice powered car. Especially when the subsidies for them are starting to come under fire in many states.
    Well, let us see if he can actually build them, in volume, at that price point first. Then we will see how it goes I suppose.
     
    Armenius likes this.
  38. ShadowXT

    ShadowXT n00bie

    Messages:
    8
    Joined:
    May 23, 2017
    Elon claims he can reach the $25K cost goal without luxury features such as "safety", "quality" or "reliability".
     
    Bowman15 and Armenius like this.
  39. Chunder

    Chunder Gawd

    Messages:
    516
    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html

    That's just the first one on this thing called Google, and there are more articles and more recent numbers. That involves time and research though to get informed, who wants to do that when you can just pick "teams" like it's a sports game and engage in logical fallacies, specifically strawman and ad hominem ones?
     
  40. DustMite

    DustMite Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    461
    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2004
    From reading the title of the article, my first thought was define the meaning of the word "about". About 3 years could mean one thing to many people and something else entirely to someone else. I believe nothing without proof and even then I'm skeptical. ;)
     
    Armenius likes this.