Ten Technologies About to Go Extinct

[FLECOM]

pretty accurate (and obvious) except #3 and #10...a wrist watch is the only jewelry a man should wear (aside from a wedding ring) IMO, and it says a great deal about his class, status and taste all in one...MABYBE it could become a niche thing for wealthy people or something but I'm not giving up mine though.

I agree, and i think rolex, omega, breitiling, tissot, panerai, IWC, graham, bell&ross, timex, and every other watch maker would also disagree that watches are going away lol

I'm not sure I can agree with the beepers one...

I see a lot of doctors still using beepers...

But any reason that a SMS system couldn't replace ANY beeper system? There are no cost or reliability issues are there?

big reason, non-2way beepers >never< transmit RF... a lot of medical equipment in a modern hospital works via RF... cell phones can mess with telemetry and other medical equipment, which is a huge liability (hence why most ICU's have extremely strict no cell phone rules)

plus pagers are super cheap, i can get a pager activated for $1/year and it will run for weeks/months off of one AAA battery

 

[ianken]

Landline...um...no.

Cell: Try calling 911 on your cell in a real emergency: Try getting a young child to do it and get it right. First: unlock the phone. If it is corporate phone, enter a fucking PIN to unlock. Then dial. Then hope you can actally tell them where you live, or if you toddler has made it this far, hope they know. Did you tell little Billy your PIN? Hope so.

Landline (adult): 911......arrrrggggggg....caller id.....ambulance.......
Landline (child): 911....daddys mad overclock blew up....I have his hand...I put in in some ice!

DVDs and optical media: not unless we all get the magic internet of no caps and super fat mega pipe. Eventually, sure. But soon? LOL.

Floppys? Maybe. Bootable thumb drives are doing it for me, but I keep a USB floppy drive around just in case. I do not build new machine with them.

 

[SolidBladez]

Cell Phone &#8594; 6-10 hours of battery life
MP3 Player &#8594; 5-18 hours of battery life

Wristwatch &#8594; I have no idea. I bought mine in 2000 and it's still ticking.

Heck, even some are solar powered. Therefore I believe that the issue is aimed at fashion more than telling time.

 

[Smoken Joe]

I agree, and i think rolex, omega, breitiling, tissot, panerai, IWC, graham, bell&ross, timex, and every other watch maker would also disagree that watches are going away lol


big reason, non-2way beepers >never< transmit RF... a lot of medical equipment in a modern hospital works via RF... cell phones can mess with telemetry and other medical equipment, which is a huge liability (hence why most ICU's have extremely strict no cell phone rules)

plus pagers are super cheap, i can get a pager activated for $1/year and it will run for weeks/months off of one AAA battery

Actualy one of the big reason was fear that the phones would directly interfere with the devices because they used high energy RF. This started when they ued the old 2-4 watt cell phones. This is back when nothing used RF.



After y2k when tons of really old equipment got trashed it hasn't mattered in most places. It is all protected except of some of the older vents and (almost) inevitably external pacemakers. Ever notice the Motorola phones that transport seems to use everywhere? Those are 3 watt phones unless you are using the internet with a bad signal it is very rare to have a phone put out 2 watts.

The biggest problem is the temptation to hand the phone to the PT and that can cause real problems.

Many hospitals still use some pretty old equipment and a few people may use some of the 10-20 year old pacemakers so it could be a danger small though if the PT doesnt use it. I keep people from using them if the patient is seriously sick on the vent or has a PA cath. I absolutely make them stay away if the PT has a external pacemaker or a new internal one with no underlying rhythm.

 

[Hypernova]

#3 is dumb, it's far easier to have things on your wrist than having to pull it out your pocket.

Dial up, my ISP give every adsl customer a free account in case of emergencies. Same for landlines, last I heard cell RF still doesn't travel through several meters of reinforced concrete.

 

[Johnx64]

Yeah I definitely agree that watches are fashionable and still functional...

I exercise regularly and my digital watch not only keeps track of how long I've been running but obviously can check lap split times and other various features that a bulky iPod or cell phone cannot.

my pos cell phone can

 

[crazyjeeper]

I see I'm not the only one who is going to have to have my watch clipped off of my cold dead wrist.

 

[RangerSVT]

Despite what that article says, wrist watches will never go away.

 

[FLECOM]

Actualy one of the big reason was fear that the phones would directly interfere with the devices because they used high energy RF. This started when they ued the old 2-4 watt cell phones. This is back when nothing used RF.



After y2k when tons of really old equipment got trashed it hasn't mattered in most places. It is all protected except of some of the older vents and (almost) inevitably external pacemakers. Ever notice the Motorola phones that transport seems to use everywhere? Those are 3 watt phones unless you are using the internet with a bad signal it is very rare to have a phone put out 2 watts.

besides the modern bag phones i know of no phones that can still put out power in the watts catagory lol

that being said, i personally would rather be safe than sorry when it comes to having an 850/1700/1900mhz radio (phone) that is constantly handshaking with its network... even if realistically most of that stuff is in the ISM bands... 433/900/2400mhz

im gessing your an emt? your handheld radio will put out a lot more RF than a cellphone ever will anyway... if your on VHF probably 5w, uhf 4w, 800 or 900 3w

 

[rat]

Disagree with the watch thing, too. i find it easier to look at my wrist than to fish for my phone, find a dark corner or a way to shield the screen from the sun and try to make out the time in tiny fonts on the outside screen.

Optical media? Eh. I'd say for as long as CDRs managed to survive, DVDRs will probably last a bit longer. While now I just burn all of my bootable CD ISOs to DVDR instead, there's a decent amount of space on a DVDR and its ease of use in having just about any semi-modern computer having a DVDRom drive (more computers have DVDRom capable drives than they have USB2 ports, believe it or not) means people will easily be able to use what you give them.

Given that HDDVD failed and BluRay is still a bit exotic (with upscalers making DVDs "good enough", doubly so) until they're under the $99 mark for budget models of NAMED BRANDS... The DVDR has a fair bit of life left in it.

Couple that with the DivX spec update incorporating MKV files, H264 DVD or HD resolution files on a DVDR is very likely. What probably should have been in the list instead of DVDs is "reasonable bandwidth quotas" for broadband.

 

[Serpico]

Wristwatches, right...

Guess I better chuck these guys then.

 

[Serpico]

DVDs and optical media: not unless we all get the magic internet of no caps and super fat mega pipe. Eventually, sure. But soon? LOL.

Pretty much, bandwidth caps are going to slow down the extinction of DVD. As for Blu Ray, even if it exists only as a niche format for video and audiophiles (just like Laserdisc in the 80s and 90s), it will remain the preferred format for the fidelity it has over HD streaming and downloads.

 

[Arvig]

My thoughts on each item. I haven't read all the posts so my comments will reflect that.

1) Landline Phones: For the most part probably dying yes. Can't comment much though since I'm hard of hearing so thus don't keep a cell phone on me..I can't hear well enough for most phone conversation. I keep one landline phone for guests to use..and almost don't need to since most have a cell phone anyway.

2) Floppy Discs: Dead. I have one spare PC with a floppy drive in it for a "just in case" scenario of someone bringing me a floppy they need to read. But even for boot discs or updating a PC's BIOS, I can personally use USB drives.

3) Wristwatches: As jewelry sure. For those few of us that don't carry something like a cell phone, sure. More niche then dying though IMO.

4) VHS/VCR's. Dying. Hanging on since someone people haven't replaced all their VHS tapes with DVD tapes, and I do have some old things on VHS tape I want to keep. About it, if my VCR suddenly disappeared, I'd be irked for maybe 10 minutes then slowly replace the VHS copies of my movies with DVD's.

5) Beepers: HA..even if I could hear one, I'd not carry one. If I could hear one, I'd lug around a cell phone instead. Since I can't, I REALLY don't need a beeper. Anyone use one anymore, really?

6) Film cameras: Disagree. Still have a niche use, and use in professional photography along with art. For day to day snapshots/vacation shots, that sort of thing it's mostly dying though I suppose.

7) Typewriters: Aren't they already dead?

8) Walkman, etc: With MP3 players they are probably slowly dying. Again with my hearing I don't think about them much though.

9) Dial up Internet: In urban areas (or even most suburban) probably dead or dying. In rural areas, not yet. Still has at least a few years due to that. Give the rural areas DSL or Cable Modems though, and it would die fast. It lives because there's still a few areas where it's almost the only choice, not because people like dial up.

10) DVD's: Disagree fully. I usually want for movies to be relased to DVD instead of seeing them in the theatre these days.

 

[FLECOM]

Wristwatches, right...

Guess I better chuck these guys then.

niiiiiiceee... when you get rid of them i will take that pam off your hands

i really want a 082 but slim chance of that ever happening... dont need another SMP although that GMT complication definately adds to its value

 

[Apathy]

overall i find this list to be stupid. and heres why:

1. landline phones -
wrong, having a hardwire is essential in emergency situations. its the most dependable form of instant communication that exists and is available to the public on a highly commercial and affordable level.

2. floppy disks -
yah really? i mean, to be fair, i still have a floppy disk drive that i leave unplugged in my rig cuz like... you know, never know when you're gonna have to move some text doc or something to someones old ass pc without usb inputs or a cd/dvd drive etc.

3. wrist watch -
eh, fashion statement. status symbol. convenience of a battery that lasts 9 billion times longer than your phone battery does. not to mention its much harder to lose a wristwatch than it is to lose a cellphone. that said, i never wear my 'titanium' fossil wristwatch. its heavy, and my wrist always smells after awhile of use. also, the pins they use are some cheap thin metal, and they break unlike the rest of the titanium casing/band.

4. vhs tapes / vcr -
yes a dead tech, no not going extinct. tons of people still own vhs players and tapes. old wedding videos, parties, births, etc. not many people have a need to convert the video, and its still the easiest way for most to record what they're watching on tv.

5. beepers -
nope. i work in healthcare. all the doctors/residents/interns all carry pagers. its small, carries a single purpose, and its cheap. highly doubt these are going anywhere for awhile. not in my industry at least.

6. film cameras -
nope. speed and resolution. once digital gets near old school cameras in this area though, yea, for sure. no idea how long thats going to take. can't imagine its going to take very long though.

7. typewriters -
no argument here

8. walkman, discman, minidisc -
i saw a minidisc player once. it confused and angered me. walkmans yea, those are done. some people might hold onto em as a relic much like a vcr. discman obviously the last to go with this bunch. its nice to still have something to play decent quality stock audio. how about we start marketing .wav players instead of .mp3 players? force the audio to be encoded in .flac or .wav. set the standard or something. i hate mp3 sound quality.

9. dialup internet-
no argument here either

10. dvd's -
yea these have a death coming in a couple years. once the net can support an entire world trying to watch 800 channels of television in HD with every possible title available for streaming / downloadable 1080p. somewhere around here is where dvd's are finished. however, the transporting of said media has to be acknowledged too.

 

[FreddieKU]

Wrist watches is a joke.

 

[sayu]

Landline phones? No. If someone wants to get in touch with me, they are calling my landline. If they call my cell phone I'll probably see their message sometime next month.

Wristwatches - I hate having things in my pockets so unless I learn to tell time by looking at the sun (assuming I can even see the sun), I'll be wearing my watch.

MInidisc players - A friend of mines convinced me to buy a minidisc player when I was in Japan (everyone had one when I was there). I actually thought it was great - battery life was simply amazing. Of course, I couldn't find blank MD's back at home.

 

[THRESHIN]

fox news doing what they do best - spewing out bile.

wristwatches dead.....right. they forget that not everyone wants to carry around a cell phone and/or an mp3 player. i'm one of them.

 

[killerbobjr]

agreed. plus
21. firewire

For mass storage, yeah. For professional audio interfaces, no. In fact, fw seems to be the interface of choice, with PCI second, and USB a distant third. And it's been the only viable choice for DV for quite a while. But even now, DV tape/disc/hd storage is being supplanted by flash, so fw for video will likely become extinct.

 

[qdemn7]

Except for #7 and #8, this article is a load of fertilizer.

I fell naked when I not wearing my watch, but I guess that's just because I'm an old fart. Must be why AARP keeps sending me all those letters wanting me to join. Sucks to think I'm now actually eligible.

 

[Jutsu]

I wouldn't say extinct, but most of them are all becoming less common. I haven't used a wrist watch in years if I put one on now it just looks and feels stupid.

Completely agree these technologies are far from being extinct... companies and home owners will still use them because they work and have worked the way they want them to for a long time. (Plus they are too cheap to upgrade) The things that will go first definitely is Polaroid cameras because they are not being manufactured anymore, the rest will be around for decades..

 

[morkboy_wonder]

I know a musician who records the majority of his songs straight onto VHS. He feels it has a warmer sound that is not matched digitally. He plays it back by connecting his video to his hi-fi. But I can't imagine VHS making it onto the shelves of any music store soon.

 

[vengence]

About to go extinct? Typewriters, walkmen, beepers, and floppies aren't extinct already?

 

[Nuc_E]

big reason, non-2way beepers >never< transmit RF... a lot of medical equipment in a modern hospital works via RF... cell phones can mess with telemetry and other medical equipment, which is a huge liability (hence why most ICU's have extremely strict no cell phone rules)

plus pagers are super cheap, i can get a pager activated for $1/year and it will run for weeks/months off of one AAA battery

The very reasons why I carry a pager and not a SMS phone for work. I don't have to worry about turning off the transmitter when I walk into the power plant control room or work near sensitive equipment.

 

[Exavior]

Landline...um...no.

Cell: Try calling 911 on your cell in a real emergency: Try getting a young child to do it and get it right. First: unlock the phone. If it is corporate phone, enter a fucking PIN to unlock. Then dial. Then hope you can actally tell them where you live, or if you toddler has made it this far, hope they know. Did you tell little Billy your PIN? Hope so.

Landline (adult): 911......arrrrggggggg....caller id.....ambulance.......
Landline (child): 911....daddys mad overclock blew up....I have his hand...I put in in some ice!

That reminds me of a situtation we had in our service area last spring (I work in a small telco). This builder of a subdivsion claimed that landline phones were old antiquated technology and didn't want us to wire his subdivision for phone service and managed to talk a good number of people into NOT getting our phone service when they had a house built.

One night the dumb ass was getting ready to go to bed and decided he put out his fire in the fireplace and clean it first. So he puts the fire out, then places the hot ashes into the garabage can in his attached garage and went to bed. Short while later his garage is on fire. He uses his digital / voip service (whichever he had) and calls their "fake" 911 service. We are in Indiana. They connect him with their main fake 911 call center in someplace like California. That place transferred him to Denver, then somplace in Texas, then Florida, then Idaho (i guess Indiana and Idaho sounded alike to that person), then from there to someplace like NY, then Ohio, then finally to Indy which from there they got him to the local 911 dispatch. This all took about 35 - 40 minutes. During which time his 1/3 of his house when up in flames. They got a local fire department dispatched and they were there within minutes due to the fact that the local fire station is about 1 - 1.5 miles from his house. By the time it was done, his garage was gone and about 1/2 the house was burnt.

The fire cheif stated how had he had real 911 service they could have probably got the call and been there to put the fire out long before it destroyed the garage.

Within a few days we had a few people from that area asking about getting our service.

 

[Rockjay420]

i think waterproof wristwatches are essential, at least for me, and most ppl have just become accustomed to their dvd players instead of vhs, so dvd still has another 3 years of life.

add to list maybe : Zip Drives

 

[Chiplg]

My pager gets signal when my cell has no hope of finding one. Fix that and pagers can go away. Till then. . .

Land lines will be around for a while. Even if only replaced by VoIP.

When I want to know the time, I look at my watch, even if there is a clock on the wall, my screen, my desktop phone, etc.

DVD purchases will exist in memory in a few more years, but I'll have my DVD collection until I'm forced to convert it to a new format.

 

[mcravenufo]

I disagree with the watch item. I don't see my phone or iPod being solar powered, monitoring temperature, altitude, barometric pressure, and having a digital compass.

 

[mcravenufo]

I also disagree with Dial-up internet. I am forced to use dial up internet as well as everyone in my area. I was told by the telephone company that DSL would never be available in my life time and the nearest cable line is over 2 miles away. I would be able to get wireless internet but the hills and trees around our neighborhood block the wireless signal. I've also tried cell phone technology internet but our area does not get 3G. It will be along time before our area has broadband access.

 

[MrTroy03]

No, for all intents and purposes, pages are DEAD. The medical industry alone does not constitute it being an alive and well technology.

If that was the case then Dot-Matrix printers and dumb terminals would still be considered alive due to the amount of automotive retailers that still use dumb terminals (and there are THOUSANDS). We are talking GENERAL PUBLIC here, in the grand scheme of things pagers are dead and so is film.

 

[Daifeichu]

No, for all intents and purposes, pages are DEAD. The medical industry alone does not constitute it being an alive and well technology.

If that was the case then Dot-Matrix printers and dumb terminals would still be considered alive due to the amount of automotive retailers that still use dumb terminals (and there are THOUSANDS). We are talking GENERAL PUBLIC here, in the grand scheme of things pagers are dead and so is film.

It's not just the medical industry that use pagers. Hundreds of people use them in my company alone.

Film? Wrong again. Film rocks unless you're sportin' a 1ds mark III.

 

[Jsox84]

Poorly written article imo, it's not very accurate. To pretty much echo what has been said already...

Landline phones aren't going away any time soon. And this is coming form a guy who works for a VoIP company that does wholesale, residential and commercial PBX. VoIP is definitely a 'wave of the future' but it doesn't fit the bill for a lot of people out there. The concept itself is tremendously flexible, would you like to use SIP, MGCP, Skinny? Put people resist change, don't want to invest in startup costs... and in some cases actually have something that already works the way they want at reasonable cost.

Wristwatches, seriously? My gf got me a Citizen over a year ago and it's easily one of my most prized possessions, I wear it every day; I find it more useful and handy than any other device for telling time efficiently. Even being married to my cell phone, I'm still far more likely to glance at my wrist than dig into my pocket or look around my desk for my phone.

Beepers aren't going anywhere either, it's a niche device for sure, but there are plenty of people who really JUST need a beeper, and nothing else.

Dial-up still serves its purpose for people who don't need or want better. Another niche, but until we have nationwide wireless or broadband availability at reasonable prices, this market will continue to shrink, but still have some customer base.

Oh well, I still read it. I'm a sucker for these "Top 10" articles...

 

[pothb]

1 is true, we got rid of ours because... family plans can make up for a landline, and include it in pay. Not perfect, but good.

2. Obviously...

3. That'll never happen, not extinct anyway. It's now for showing off status and it looks nice. Might not be for practical uses but it'll never disappear.

4. A couple years late?

5. Untrue, it's cheap and works, no one will get rid of it til there is another that costs the same.

6. Don't know. I would guess not. Pros will still use em, I'd think.

7. True

8. Prolly true, but not too soon probably, too many people are still buying to give it up.

9. Yea.... I'm surprised its not gone...

10, I doubt it... probably not in the next 5 years. Maybe longer.

 

[Serpico]

niiiiiiceee... when you get rid of them i will take that pam off your hands

i really want a 082 but slim chance of that ever happening... dont need another SMP although that GMT complication definately adds to its value

Thank you, sir. And I agree, the Panerai 082 is very sharp.

My favorite to wear is the IWC. I've had all of those watches for a couple years now and the IWC slowly emerged as the one I wear the most. It is really really nice.

Thanks for the reminder though, the Panerai has gotten pretty lonely at this point, think I'll wear it this weekend.

 

[[H]adouken!]

Where were the CRT TV's?

 

[dochmbi]

Beepers will continue to be used in casinos to alert poker players that a cash game seat they registered for is available.

 

[Pylon]

1. Landline Phones.
6. Film Cameras. No. At least not for a long time. Speed and resolution. There are very few digital cameras that can keep up with film cameras in those areas, and those that can are ridiculously expensive.

A friend of mine actually switched to a film SLR from a digital bridge camera, and seems to be much happier. Decent cameras for it are way cheaper(seriously F/N80s are insanely cheap), much higher resolution, plus you get that old school film grained look.

And no way am I giving up my wrist watch.

 

[FreddieKU]

Beepers for dinner.

 

[Pylon]

Where were the CRT TV's?

2 out of the 3 TV I have are CRT, and they've worked well. It's hard to find them new in stores, but people are still going to use it for quite a long time. And somehow the image tends to be sharper than on my LCD.

 

[MrTroy03]

It's not just the medical industry that use pagers. Hundreds of people use them in my company alone.

Film? Wrong again. Film rocks unless you're sportin' a 1ds mark III.

So your telling me that the MAJORITY of the public still uses film cameras. Hmmm, thats news to me and to the 100% digital camera selection at Best Buy (minus the disposables).