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Programmers becoming extinct?

i'll never forget my qbasic... and i do have an idea for a kick-@$$ strategy game i'd like to do someday... tho i can't pay you, it'd be great fun. interested?
 
I think it's more accurate to say the job will be radically altered, but it's not going extinct. The next big push is for automatic code generation, so that Joe Accountant can drag around some pretty icons, press a button, and create a program to do tax calculations. However, programmers still have to be in the equation for setting up all this technological magic -- formulating the computation model, writing the specific code, designing the language, and such as that. There won't be as many programmers required, though.

Also, embedded programming seems to lag behind the trends by a few years (my theory because the hardware is relatively dated, so programmed capability is lessened), so it should be healthy for a while yet.
 
Programming is such a broad term, im sure the outsourced jobs are for realitively simple web applications and small utilities. If you know a few api's your probably ahead of 90% of the programmers overseas.
 
If IT is critical to an organization and it outsources it, it's like giving one's testicles to a casual aquaintance for safekeeping. Some organizations are going to learn the hard way, and I expect the outsourcing trend will eventually reverse itself to a degree. Some monkey work may still be outsourced, but not everything.
 
mcravenufo said:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...14/tc_usatoday/endangeredspeciesusprogrammers
Click to expand...

:( I hate reading articles like those... I remember the first time I learned about outsourcing was in an article in Wired magazine. It scared the crap out of me, but I'm still in college going for a CS degree anyway. My professor said that at some colleges in California the amount of people going to college for computer science is dropping by a lot all thanks to this whole outsourcing scare.

But here's how I see it. If I'm to have a job I have to do for five or more days a week until the day I retire, it better be something I enjoy or my life will be miserable. This is why I'm going for something I enjoy despite the gloomy and seemingly hopeless future that, according to all those articles, awaits all American programmers like myself.

I've also heard some say that this is a good thing, because it will level out the playing field and create a more world-wide demand for software. Optimistic views like these are nice to have, but in reality I think this is no more than a sugar-coated view of what's really happening.
 
On the positive side, if a lot of people are scared away from these studies, there'll be less competition for the jobs that do appear. At least that's what I keep telling myself.
 
Yeah, I saw the same thing happen over here in the UK, from a fairly intimate standpoint (I was made redundant through outsourcing to Tata). The trouble is, there's a significant difference between western programmers and the developers trained in the east (granted, this is a broad generalisation, but from my experience, it's fairly close to the mark). I'd like to say straight off the bat that I'm not being racist here - it's more a reflection on the differences in philosophy, aims and subsequent training. Bear with me.

Western programmers tend to delight in the discovery of new things. It's a child-like fascination with the unfamiliar. When I've been working on the same problem for a few days, and suddenly I happen across a blindingly elegant solution, I get filled with confidence. The same goes for all the guys I work (and have worked) with. It's something to be proud of. If I happen across a simple change, or a consequence of a slightly different design paradigm, I'll tell our sales guys (or sometimes the customer), and we'll try to sell it. What benefits the customer benefits my bonus ;)

The imported developers tend to work to a different philosophy - churn out the code, get the job done. There's little flair or imagination in the way they work. As a result, they work specifically to the design. No deviation, no changes. They complete the project, and get on with the next. Lessons have to be learned as a group, or thrown away. As a group, they tend to be very slow to change direction, and never make suggestions to the customer as to potential enhancements. When we were training the guys to take over out jobs, they were plainly not interested in any of the enhancements we wanted to make which would have benefitted our end-users - they were interested in volume, not quality.

Now, there are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches, but it leads to a separation of duties which a lot of companies haven't cottoned on to - these imported guys may be cheaper, but only in a support role. For new developments, they can actually hinder progress, and subsequently cost a lot more. My previous employers found this out the hard way - as a direct result of their outsourcing, they are now a closed-book operation (they're an insurance company), and are desperately trying to sell off bits of the business to stay afloat. They went from being one of the big 5 in the UK to being a rank outsider, because they took the short-term option and it ended up hitting their margins in a way they didn't expect.

The overall effect is one that will look good for the programmer in the long run, but not good for the economy - I'll leave it to you to decide which is the best option.
 
:LJ: said:
... They went from being one of the big 5 in the UK to being a rank outsider, because they took the short-term option and it ended up hitting their margins in a way they didn't expect. ...
Click to expand...

I guess they're one of the ones who learned the hard way...

A different way of looking at the decline in the number of people entering the field: there'll be less ignorant asshats just "in it for the money". I have zero respect for those sorts of lazy bastards who don't use their brain at all and just want to get a degree and make the "big money." Fuck 'em. The less talentless, careless pieces of crap in the field, the better. It's not that I fear competition, it's that I don't ever want to have to work with such losers... (Though I currently do :()
 
I can not begin to tell you how mad articles like this make me. Because of shit like this I contemplate everyday turning away from the computer to study something entirely different, which in most cases I have little to no interest in, just to know I will be able to pay my bills and put food on the table in the future. Grrrr.
 
:( that is sad.

Alot of jobs are becoming like that, and these companies prolly getting tax breaks from offshoring people's jobs.
 
mcravenufo,

Find another field.

As a techician out of work for 3 years I tell people to get a water meter reading job for $32K instead of that $18K a year tech job.

For you I would suggest you look into your city and state agencies - they are usually using some sort of GPS (?) system to monitor traffic, or lay down highways in software, creating airports, co-ordinating emergency services, installing GPS systems on buses and programming traffic delays and re-routing dynamically, co-ordinating sub road work (water pipe repair, laying down, installing new electrical wiring, etc.); working with electrical utility companies (so long as they are not prvately owned); working with water utility companies (so long as they are not privately owned); working with gas and gasoline companies (getting into hydrogen fuels now is a smart idea); etc.

Open up your Sunday classifieds. Find out which jobs are paying the most. Investigate what it would take (usually a 4 year degree) and if it appeals to you. With your background you can easily get into Engineering; they use a lot of CAD/CAM. Just find what field of Egineering appeals to you.

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I love hearing the harda**ed guys talk so tough. One guy told me that he was a DBMS Admin and that he had job security. I told him that all an outsourced DBMS Admin working overseas needed was a domain password and his job was history.

Guess you guys missed the news story about the Texas IT guy who used to make $80K a year and is now working at WalMart for $6.50 an hour without health benefits. Or the Boeing Areospace Engineer with an MBA and couldn't find work.

Here in Phoenix for every job in the classifieds there are 600 respondents. Out of that 600 60 will be considered and 10 interviewed. If you want to create websites I can steer you to a company that is willing to pay you $8 an hour. Getting a job as a PC Technician for $6.50 an hour is hard.

If you were an electrician, carpenter, plumber or mason you'd get a job in Florida real quick.

If all you want to do is make money, become a lawyer. Then become a politican.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I agree with Cardboard Hammer, some corporations are going to learn the hard way. The outsource 'source' will be cracked and corporations here will be raped. On one side they'll be phished and on the other they will cracked. Dell has found out the hard way and has since pulled Corporate support back to our shores. I wonder if banks will be stupid enough to turn the keys to the mansion over to an overseas brokage house. I expect them to soon outsource all their credit card operations.
 
that's sad... i beat the same is gonna happen on the other side of things.. the hardware side.. that's what i'm studying.. :(
 
mcravenufo said:
I am a software engineer and it was kind of depressing to read news like this.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...14/tc_usatoday/endangeredspeciesusprogrammers

I wonder if I should start looking for another career choice?
Click to expand...
About a month ago, I was having a similar discussion with my wife. We are both in the tech sector - she is a professor in an informaiton sciecne school, and I am a software engineer/consultant.

I maintained that as we move from manufacturing to service to information societies, skill requirements will change - there will be a need for low level software engineers, but people will be able to manage their own computing needs through better, and better sofftware. This will cut out the need for most programmers (but not the highly skilled ones writing the "smart" software that everyone uses).

I also said that higher salaries will be paid to people that do more manual work - skills that are being lost, and will need to be imported. As an Australian, I keep an eye on the economy back home, and for the most part it is a lot more stable than the US economy, and the unemployment rate is lower than that in the US - mostly ... except in the tech sector where unemployment is 3 times the national average. So, I was interested when I came across this story where tradesmen are being imported from South Africa, because of the lack of skilled welders, fitters and turners (boilermakers), plumbers, and electricians. For years, career advisor in high schools have been pushing people away from these trades - and now we have a shortage. Brilliant eh?
 
rtgordon said:
I am seriously considering going back to school to become a CPA. :eek:
Click to expand...


luminal said:
maybe i'll get to be a mortician after all
Click to expand...



Death and Taxes will always be around even if there are no programers.
 
for the forseeable future, society will have a greater and greater need for:
- people who can fix cars
- people who can fix houses
- people who can fix people
- people who can fix legal problems
 
maw said:
for the forseeable future, society will have a greater and greater need for:
- people who can fix cars
- people who can fix houses
- people who can fix people
- people who can fix legal problems
Click to expand...
Don't forget the people who can... "fix"... people / legal problems :D
 
what those idiots who do the outsourcing don't realize is that now, it's not $$$ that makes the world go round, it's the computer tech that you rely on more and more everyday to do things.

believe it or not, all of the following everyday things have computers in them:
washing machines
clothes driers
many kitchen appliances (stoves, ovens, dishwashers, refrigerators, freezers)
some lamp add-ons (a few timers but mostly anything motion-sense)
absolutely every car made after about 1990 and a few before (whether or not it has a driver interface)
atms
anything with "digital" on the packaging :rolleyes: or that was purchased at radio shack
several refrigerator magnets (that would be the annoying noisy ones)
air conditioners
televisions (these are specialized, but they do have a dedicated processing system for a/v info so they count, doubly so if you're talking hdtv)
radios (unless they have a frequency dial)
tape and cd players (unless they are tape-only... those are usually mechanical)
answering machines (can't even buy mechanical ones anymore i don't think)
any telephone that is not rotary
caller id units
home security systems

the list just goes on and on and on... i imagine there are a zillion things i didn't list. i mean, think about it: computers are literally everywhere. but the point is, as i said: computers make the world go round even more than $$$ do.
 
I went to an IEEE meeting here at UF, and the chairman of the ECE department was talking.. and he was saying how this whole out sourcing thing.. there aren't any real numbers avaliable.. that basically everything is just anecdotal..

so at the moment.. we don't really know how big of a problem this outsourcing stuff is..

but it seems like it's hitting the software community that hardest.. at least from all the stories and stuff..
 
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