nvidia pascal, when to expect it?

I would expect it by 2050. I think it is a safe bet it'll be out by then.

:D

Seriously, nobody outside nVidia knows, and even they might not. Depends on how soon they can get all the issues in the design worked out, how soon it can be produced in sufficient quantity, and when they feel is a good idea market wise to release it.
 
Sycraft said:
I would expect it by 2050. I think it is a safe bet it'll be out by then.

:D

Seriously, nobody outside nVidia knows, and even they might not. Depends on how soon they can get all the issues in the design worked out, how soon it can be produced in sufficient quantity, and when they feel is a good idea market wise to release it.
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I know this, but suppose that the card is ready for today,
has any sense to launch it for christmas while GTX980 Ti is on the shelf since few months?
 
IMO, no, especially when AMD's offering is, at best, on par with 980ti.

If Fury X's trashed 980ti, then there may be more sense in releasing Pascal sooner rather than later.
 
My bet is July 2016.

Dont forget that AMD have "priority" in the HMB2 parts.

And VR will start to escalate only in 2016 too.

The 980ti is a BEAST without a leash (OC potential). No reason to Nvidia to speed things.
 
HardLiner said:
Is Pascal going to be 16nm?
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Most likely, yes. It's been linked to TSMC 16nm, and TSMC would be ready to produce these 16nm chips anyway, so it wouldn't make sense for nVidia to stick to 28nm.
 
DouglasteR said:
Dont forget that AMD have "priority" in the HMB2 parts.
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nope, AMD had priority and 1 year advantage with HBM1 for the help in the develop of that technology with SKHynix but no wit HBM2 or any other gen.. in fact we have a thread discussing about the production of HBM2 to nvidia starting in the first quarter of 2016.. Here's one of the OP links in duscission however I would no expect Pascal until Q3-Q4 2016 being optimist, and also don't expect to see high-end chips to that moment.
 
Hornet said:
Most likely, yes. It's been linked to TSMC 16nm, and TSMC would be ready to produce these 16nm chips anyway, so it wouldn't make sense for nVidia to stick to 28nm.
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Glad they will be using 16nm but I kinda know how this will go, release date Q2 of 2016, then pushed back to Q4 2016 just in time for Christmas and then it will finally be release 1st half 2017.
 
I've been hearing spring of 2016. According to some shipping manifests that were found Nvidia had a full Pascal GPU sent to them for testing. They also had a conference in Japan recently to talk more about Pascal.
 
Probably 3Q16 for 1070 and 1080 (or whatever they designate them as), late 1Q17 for Titan, and 2Q17 for the Ti parts is my guess. They'll probably follow the same release schedule as Maxwell.
 
Given NVIDIA's release history, I would expect a release during the third quarter of calendar year 2016 (July - September). Pascal was reported as taped out in June this year, which if true, points to a mid- to late-2016 release for high volume production.
DejaWiz said:
Probably 3Q16 for 1070 and 1080 (or whatever they designate them as), late 1Q17 for Titan, and 2Q17 for the Ti parts is my guess. They'll probably follow the same release schedule as Maxwell.
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NVIDIA has said that they're more interested in putting out the full enthusiast chip first this time, so I would expect the Pascal Ti or Pascal TITAN first (GP100).
 
Both sides want to jump on 16nm very quickly, the question is how quickly because we are in a really funky situation at the moment. Nvidia is still dominate and has a solid lead in market share, so there really isn't any incentive to jump on it ASAP (Q1-Q2 2016 when mass production is in full swing). That's the earliest I think either side could technically release products. AMD on the other hand just released a product line that at the very most can compete with Nvidia's much older cards. It would be a loss for them to jump on a new node early to do a quick cycle, but it might shift momentum back in their favor if they do so.

Engineering samples are already showing up on some sites for Nvidia hinting that they've already produced Pascal to some extent and are in the testing/finalizing phase. It'll be very interesting to say the least what happens. Nobody wants a Q3/Q4 release from both sides, but Q1/Q2 might be too early for both at the same time. All we know for certain is that they are going to destroy current line ups performance wise, unless Nvidia keeps shitting on the x60 version cards like they've been doing.
 
Armenius said:
Given NVIDIA's release history, I would expect a release during the third quarter of calendar year 2016 (July - September).
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What release history are you talking about?

GTX 750: February 2014
GTX 680: March 2012
GTX 480: March 2010
8800 GTX: November 2006

I'm not seeing any tendency historically to launch a major new architectureline around late summer.

Really, Nvidia has long since gotten as many sales as they can out of Maxwell. The prices have not fallen because there's no more costs they can really cut (same reason AMD ddidn't start a price war with the 390 series). So if they want to keep up the impressive product sales of earlier this year, it will benefit them to get it out asap next year.

So they'll get one last holiday season of Maxwell for the last of the holdouts to feast upon, then it's in with the new. One other benefit is that being released in spring allows plenty of time for OEMs to design new platforms showcasing the new hardware before the holidays.
 
^ holiday that is the biggest spending time for consumers (Black Friday-Christmas) as well as in-line with people getting their tax returns back just itching to spend them.
 
defaultluser said:
What release history are you talking about?

GTX 750: February 2014
GTX 680: March 2012
GTX 480: March 2010
8800 GTX: November 2006

I'm not seeing any tendency historically to launch a major new architectureline around late summer.

Really, Nvidia has long since gotten as many sales as they can out of Maxwell. The prices have not fallen because there's no more costs they can really cut (same reason AMD ddidn't start a price war with the 390 series). So if they want to keep up the impressive product sales of earlier this year, it will benefit them to get it out asap next year.

So they'll get one last holiday season of Maxwell for the last of the holdouts to feast upon, then it's in with the new. One other benefit is that being released in spring allows plenty of time for OEMs to design new platforms showcasing the new hardware before the holidays.
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By historically, I am talking about the amount of time that passes between major releases, which has historically been 14-16 months.

6 Series = April 2004
7 Series = June 2005 (+14 months)
8 Series = November 2006 (+17 months)
9 Series = February 2008 (+15 months)
200 Series = June 2008 (+4 months)
400 Series = March 2010 (+21 months)
500 Series = November 2010 (+8 months)
600 Series = March 2012 (+16 months)
700 Series = May 2013 (+14 months)
900 Series = September 2014 (+16 months)

So I can concede that this would point to a Q1 release. But the fact that it was rumored that Pascal just taped out in May and it's on a completely new node, I would give it at least a year before production volume is at the point where NVIDIA can launch it.
 
Armenius said:
By historically, I am talking about the amount of time that passes between major releases, which has historically been 14-16 months.

6 Series = April 2004
7 Series = June 2005 (+14 months)
8 Series = November 2006 (+17 months)
9 Series = February 2008 (+15 months)
200 Series = June 2008 (+4 months)
400 Series = March 2010 (+21 months)
500 Series = November 2010 (+8 months)
600 Series = March 2012 (+16 months)
700 Series = May 2013 (+14 months)
900 Series = September 2014 (+16 months)

So I can concede that this would point to a Q1 release. But the fact that it was rumored that Pascal just taped out in May and it's on a completely new node, I would give it at least a year before production volume is at the point where NVIDIA can launch it.
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Will be a huge improvement over the 980ti
 
Armenius said:
By historically, I am talking about the amount of time that passes between major releases, which has historically been 14-16 months.

6 Series = April 2004
7 Series = June 2005 (+14 months)
8 Series = November 2006 (+17 months)
9 Series = February 2008 (+15 months)
200 Series = June 2008 (+4 months)
400 Series = March 2010 (+21 months)
500 Series = November 2010 (+8 months)
600 Series = March 2012 (+16 months)
700 Series = May 2013 (+14 months)
900 Series = September 2014 (+16 months)

So I can concede that this would point to a Q1 release. But the fact that it was rumored that Pascal just taped out in May and it's on a completely new node, I would give it at least a year before production volume is at the point where NVIDIA can launch it.
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I dunno, their worst-case chip on TSMC's most temperamental process ever was taped-out and released in in just 8 months.

http://techgage.com/news/is_nvidias_gf100_broken_and_unfixable/

The two real fixes, doubling the vias and redesigned circuits to minimize the impact of transistor variances both require a full re-layout. Both also cost time and die area. The time is at least six months from tapeout, if you recall. Fermi taped out in late July and was only slated for small numbers at retail in late November, a very unrealistic goal. A B1 spin of the chip would be at least Q3 of 2010 if it tapes out today, and it won’t have a useful life before it is supplanted by the next generation of 28nm chips.
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And while they had to disable a small part of the chip to get the yields up, it still outperformed the HD 5870. And the B1 revision got clocks and units up and power down.

And while Charlie whined about how Nvidia couldn't possibly make a dime off of Fermi, there they were making boatloads from their "unfixable" architecture. The shortages that people proclaimed would happen never came to be!

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...0024466/Q4FY10_CFO_commentary_FINAL_FINAL.pdf

So., never assume the prognosticators are right. They often have no idea what it takes to make a successful chip on a cutting-edge process node.
 
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UnrealCpu said:
Will be a huge improvement over the 980ti
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Performance per watt, yes, it should be. In real world usage, I'm anticipating the '1070' to be around 15-20% faster than 980 Ti, and the '1080' to be around 30-40% faster...albeit with significantly less power consumption and heat output. Maybe they can push the '1080 Ti' to be around 60-80% faster. All in reference form, at that.
 
Around GTC 2016(April) could be an early end target (not necessarily a consumer release).
 
defaultluser said:
I dunno, their worst-case chip on TSMC's most temperamental process ever was taped-out and released in in just 8 months.

http://techgage.com/news/is_nvidias_gf100_broken_and_unfixable/



You are truth bending, they knew that they werent going to have fully working chips at launch. Which means that they were working on it longer than 2 weeks. On top of that it was a revision of an existing chip not a brand new design. A better comparison would be the GK110, the chip took about an entire year before fully functional chips were made available to the consumers(dont remember how long for enterprise). That is the level of difficulty that should be expected on top of the fact that GK100 was never released and had to be redesigned into GK110.
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rumartinez89 said:
defaultluser said:
I dunno, their worst-case chip on TSMC's most temperamental process ever was taped-out and released in in just 8 months.

http://techgage.com/news/is_nvidias_gf100_broken_and_unfixable/



You are truth bending, they knew that they werent going to have fully working chips at launch. Which means that they were working on it longer than 2 weeks. On top of that it was a revision of an existing chip not a brand new design. A better comparison would be the GK110, the chip took about an entire year before fully functional chips were made available to the consumers(dont remember how long for enterprise). That is the level of difficulty that should be expected on top of the fact that GK100 was never released and had to be redesigned into GK110.
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Meh. NVidia executes--that's what they did then, that's what they will continue to do.

Or in the words of Heartbreak Ridge: "We improvise! We adapt! We overcome!"
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Commander Suzdal said:
rumartinez89 said:
Meh. NVidia executes--that's what they did then, that's what they will continue to do.

Or in the words of Heartbreak Ridge: "We improvise! We adapt! We overcome!"
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I am not saying they don't, but I find it hard to believe on the consumer side that GP100 will be the first card to drop. All available cards will go to filling government/enterprise contracts and then after that it will become available to us as a Geforce. My guess is a repeat of Kepler.

On another note any guesses on whether the Pascal is Fermi/Kepler/Maxwell derived or is it going to be a completely new arch?
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My guess would be second half next year since its gonna be on a new process and a whole new design for volume production.
 
rumartinez89 said:
Commander Suzdal said:
I am not saying they don't, but I find it hard to believe on the consumer side that GP100 will be the first card to drop. All available cards will go to filling government/enterprise contracts and then after that it will become available to us as a Geforce. My guess is a repeat of Kepler.

On another note any guesses on whether the Pascal is Fermi/Kepler/Maxwell derived or is it going to be a completely new arch?
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from what I have been reading its a new design.
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