nVidia (and Navi) 3xxx series 7nm speculation...

Discussion in 'Video Cards' started by nEo717, Apr 16, 2019.

  1. nEo717

    nEo717 Limp Gawd

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    Interesting (guess) at where nVidia is going, and, AMD Navi will release as:




    Will the next Gen be Ampere and/or HBM memory? Will pricing come down for nVidia? Could we see more GTX?

    My thoughts are that we will see Navi in July at 2080 Ti/Titan performance causing a knee jerk reaction out of nVidia for GTX series line that's stronger than RTX (currently) which protect nVidia's market share (ultimately Jen-Hsun job) - Right now nVidia is not in a position to loose hardly any market share or profits (without the markets pounding on them and their board rattling Jen's cage).

    Lastly, we have an interesting setup in the works with July Navi, only to be followed by Intel at the end of the year (if we believe the blue hype machine) which will push the limits even further.

    --- Navi update --

    We're hopeful that AMD will have more to show off with Navi at Computex in June, which is right around the corner at this point. AMD has been very secretive regarding its Navi architecture, but we know Navi will support ray tracing, and there's talk of variable rate shading. We also know Navi will be based on 7nm, as will AMD's next round of Ryzen processors.

    AMD Navi PCB leak suggests GDDR6 memory and 256-bit interface

    https://www.techspot.com/news/79837-amd-navi-pcb-leak-suggests-gddr6-memory-256.html
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2019
  2. Stoly

    Stoly [H]ardness Supreme

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    AFAIK Navi 10 is expected until october and should perform like Vega56, although I've seen rumors that Navi is much better than expected and could give the RTX2080 a run for its money.
     
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  3. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

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    I hope they do better than a shitty blower on the 3080ti. :ROFLMAO:

    I doubt nVidia will release anything new before 7nm. Then we have the question if 7nm can actually produce a chip better than the 2080ti at reasonable cost.
     
  4. Armenius

    Armenius I Drive Myself to the [H]ospital

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    Why bother speculating at all at this point when NVIDIA's next gen is likely at least a year away? Not bothering giving this idiot a view.
    Only real info we have at this time is NVIDIA going with Samsung for future fabrication.
     
  5. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

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    Yeah I didn’t even watch the video. Hehe
     
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  6. Chimpee

    Chimpee [H]ard|Gawd

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    Big Navi should be at or near 2080TI performance, but that won't be out until next year, at that point, it will be facing Nvidia 7nm chip. Regarding HBM, I suspect, Nvidia will use HBM on their prosumer and enterprise card and keep GDDR6 for their consumer cards as usual.
     
  7. Nenu

    Nenu [H]ardened

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    My guess is the next releases will be RTX 21xx, not 3xxx.
    A right royal waste of numbers otherwise!
     
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  8. Bawjaws

    Bawjaws Limp Gawd

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    July of what year? Not 2019.
     
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  9. Nolan7689

    Nolan7689 [H]ard|Gawd

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    2024 duh.
     
  10. sirmonkey1985

    sirmonkey1985 [H]ard|DCer of the Month - July 2010

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    no it'll be 3xxx because they need to make the GTX 2660's, lol. as we've learned over the years nvidia's marketing team never learns from their stupid ideas.
     
  11. Nenu

    Nenu [H]ardened

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    I also wondered about that but there are some easy fixes.
    The RTX and GTX labels can be squeezed into the same numbering bracket.
    They can move to GTX 17xx if they havent got a clue for the next 1 to 3 years.
    Within those 3 years they might stop making GTX if they have improved RTX enough to go on any card.
     
  12. pippenainteasy

    pippenainteasy Gawd

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    How is AMD going to get a GPU to 2080 Ti/Titan level performance if Navi is designed--and paid for by Microsoft and Sony--to run for the consoles? As I recall the Xbox One X got a 40 CU Polaris GPU and all PC users got was 36 CU Polaris chip. Whatever comes out for the PC will probably be a tiny die overclocked to the hilt like Radeon 7 and have poor perf per watt.
     
  13. DooKey

    DooKey [H]ardness Supreme

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    Navi at 2080Ti performance in July of this year? LOL.
     
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  14. Auer

    Auer Gawd

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    Yeah..a bit optimistic.

    Before the R7 came out and matched the 2080 I had hopes for a $250_$300 4K card.

    I was very wrong. And I really would be very surprised if Navi would deliver that in 2019/2020.
     
  15. sknight

    sknight [H]Lite

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    Quibble Alert: I believe it's pronounced "Envidia" not "Navidia". lol
     
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  16. Digital Viper-X-

    Digital Viper-X- [H]ardForum Junkie

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    is it ENVY-DEEYA?! (I thought the name was based around Envy )
     
  17. nvgrim

    nvgrim [H]ard|Gawd

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    The Nvdia splash screens that used to appear during pre launch of games always said it in 3 syllables. En-vid-eya
     
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  18. nEo717

    nEo717 Limp Gawd

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  19. Bawjaws

    Bawjaws Limp Gawd

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    AMD aren't going to "crush" Nvidia any time soon, even if they produce an amazing GPU tomorrow. They can claw back market share, but when you have 20% of the market you aren't going to crush the company with the other 80% overnight.

    And regurgitating AdoredTV's rumour of the new AMD products matching Nvidia but at half the price is as unrealistic today as it was when it first aired.
     
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  20. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Navi will not compete with Nvidia in the high end & the 3xxx series will be very expensive.
     
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  21. kniwor

    kniwor [H]Lite

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    What has the impact been of pricing on nividia sales? That's going to determine if pricing comes down - do they feel like they might lose marketshare because of pricing?
     
  22. n370zed

    n370zed Limp Gawd

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    We need a GPU mass extinction event where AMD comes out with a RTX 2080 killer for $249. That’ll fuck with nVidias pricing....then let’s sit back and watch the whole world burn.
     
  23. kniwor

    kniwor [H]Lite

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    Even if AMD could profitably make it at that price point, why do that? They have no guarentee that the price cut will help them with long term market dominance. It might just start a price war and guess who had a bigger warchest. Worse still, people will still blindly buy nivida.
     
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  24. Gideon

    Gideon 2[H]4U

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    Revenue was down for them by quite a bit, a simple store check has shown that the 2000 series has not sold anywhere near like the 1000 series.
     
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  25. Mode13

    Mode13 Gawd

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    AMD will always price comparatively to Nvidia, hence the VII being $699.. It would take a few months or years of competition to drive prices down that far. You're totally right too, I'd wager 1000 2080s and 1080Tis would be bought for every 1 Radeon VII.

    I imagine the 1660~ cards are making a massive splash on the market though and the 20xx series is just a boutique icing on the cake for them right now. I guess they're trying to milk the last of the bitcoin craze coupled with charging an early adopter premium for RTX. It may not be paying now, but when they slash prices 10-20% on the hardware, even though it will still be insanely overpriced, people may finally cave and start spending. $399 remains my limit either way.

    I'm admittedly too lazy to check for their financial reports though..

    I doubt the market shakes at all until Intel is ready to step in.
     
  26. kniwor

    kniwor [H]Lite

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    Is this all because of nVidia card pricing though, or is it largely the impact of crypto prices tanking.
     
  27. Gideon

    Gideon 2[H]4U

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    I would say both have a hand in it. The reality is unless you had a 4K monitor and had not bought a Pascal card, then you might find the 2000 series worth the money. I think the bigger issue is people actually feeling a need to upgrade, at 1440p my 1080 does just fine on frame rate.
     
  28. kniwor

    kniwor [H]Lite

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    That is, I suppose also a function of how games are designed. As graphic power increases newer games will be harder to play on older cards - with or without an upgrade to 4k monitors (which is likely also coming). So the need for more computing is ever growing - what keeps the prices in check is the competition.
     
  29. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Less so than one might think. Both Intel and Nvidia have kept their prices more or less in check. Increases in margins are great until the volume drops to the point that they have trouble justifying development and fab capacity. By keeping prices accessible, they can maintain net revenue short term and remain competitive long term.

    Neither need AMD for that. If sales volume drops, they'll need to drop prices accordingly.

    And here, AMD can ride their coattails so to speak; however high Intel and Nvidia price, AMD just has to be a little bit cheaper to ship their capacity. Hell, with Intel still in the process of overcoming their 10nm difficulties, AMD is shipping everything they can produce. That won't last, of course; they'll have to really, really compete on the CPU side.

    They have it worse on the GPU side. Technology and marketing deficits compound their marketshare deficit, and then there's their margins deficit.


    Meaning that Nvidia has very little reason to compete on price with AMD; Nvidia (and Intel) compete with themselves.
     
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  30. kniwor

    kniwor [H]Lite

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    I mean the function of performance and price. So, I agree that topline graphic cards will always be around a sweet spot price point that works for nVidia.

    However, if not for AMD - I'm not sure for that price the computing power today would be anywhere near what we have in today's cards. So in that sense, price for performance needs an exogenous factor.
     
  31. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

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    That's the point- not really.

    Shipping units takes priority. They can handle dearths, but any trend is going to hurt their bottom line simply by weakening their bargaining position for production capacity, something that neither company controls. That means making big, expensive GPUs and small ones; efficient parts for mobile, stable parts for enterprise, and everything between. It means staying ahead of the software game and the marketing game, and it's all long-term strategy.

    AMD doesn't compete here, not now, and they don't have a real influence on pricing. Instead, their pricing is dictated to them.
     
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  32. euskalzabe

    euskalzabe Gawd

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    I hope people are smarter than thinking "It's so cheap!" when prices eventually come down. I know when mid-range is overpriced. $300 is my absolute maximum, and I'd rather stick around $250 if possible. Right now that money doesn't get me much more than my 1060, so there's 0 point in upgrading. We'll see what Navi brings, or Nvidia's 7nm cards.

    Absolutely agreed. This generation has been VERY long-lived, because of lack of competition. My 1060 is 2 years old, and the new cards in that price range are barely a generational upgrade. Then again, it's more like it "feels" like I need an upgrade, because all my games run at close to 60fps on high settings at 2560x1080. The only one that doesn't is AC Origins, and I haven't even bought Odyssey yet... I'm waiting until there's a logical GPU upgrade for a rational price, then I'll get the games for cheap.
     
  33. nEo717

    nEo717 Limp Gawd

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    --

    We're hopeful that AMD will have more to show off with Navi at Computex in June, which is right around the corner at this point. AMD has been very secretive regarding its Navi architecture, but we know Navi will support ray tracing, and there's talk of variable rate shading. We also know Navi will be based on 7nm, as will AMD's next round of Ryzen processors.

    AMD Navi PCB leak suggests GDDR6 memory and 256-bit interface

    https://www.techspot.com/news/79837-amd-navi-pcb-leak-suggests-gddr6-memory-256.html
     
  34. Oldmodder

    Oldmodder Gawd

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    Since every one are just slapping their brand on VII cards, a GFX card that could use a little extra effort at least on the cooler, then i think thats due to some people knowing something we don't, and so are holding back for more worth while things.
    And AMD are just offloading something they know will be a hard sell soon.

    At least i hope so. :barefoot:
     
  35. gigaxtreme1

    gigaxtreme1 2[H]4U

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    Navi won't release until at least Siggraph and may just be announced there and launch later in the fall. In the meantime they can burn off excess Polaris/Vega inventory.
     
  36. Bawjaws

    Bawjaws Limp Gawd

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    Seeing as you quoted me, I'll reply. I don't see how the additional info you've posted validates your idea that we'll see a 2080Ti competitor from AMD this July, which I what I challenging in the post you've quoted.

    Whatever AMD demonstrate at Computex in June, I very, very much doubt that it will deliver 2080Ti let alone Titan performance. I suspect it'll be an improvement on AMD's previous cards (excepting the VII), but I'd be absolutely amazed if it got anywhere near 2080Ti level. Bear in mind that VII is also on 7nm with 1TB/s of bandwith from HBM2 and that card matches the 2080.

    Rumours so far suggest that Navi 10 is going to be a mid-level offering (potentially a replacement for Vega 56 and 64) and the high-end offering, Navi 20, will be next year. Navi 20 might rival the 2080Ti but I'd be stunned if anything AMD release this year does.
     
  37. nEo717

    nEo717 Limp Gawd

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    -------

    The post included the possible launch of Navi, and as much as the rumors say RTX 2080 performance, the latest rumors (one of them being posted above) that it may exceed expectations this time (Vega 64 as an example was 1080 target to match for AMD).

    I can completely understand based upon all the past AMD Graphic Cards many feeling they will not launch timely, and that they will talk a big talk only to under deliver (as is the opinions of many) - I totally get how that could be the vibe for AMD.

    However, it also used to be the norm for AMD CPU's, yet today under Lisa's leadership look how things have changed - What's to say her impact on the Graphics division will not be as much of an impact? nVidia needs a push anyways - without something to give them a little nudge I'm guessing we could be stuck with RTX 2080 series a long time (look at the run on the 1080 series).
     
  38. Oldmodder

    Oldmodder Gawd

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    If those rumors are true, and navi are mid range cards as other rumors say, then for sure AMD will set a new level for what mid range GFX cards are,,,,,,,,,, and i hope that but need to see it.
     
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  39. Maddness

    Maddness [H]ard|Gawd

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    Revenue for both Nvidia and AMD is down in the GPU market. The crypto crash had a negative affect on both companies. Luckily for AMD, they have been doing quite well with RyZen sales and that looks to continue with all the hassles Intel is having getting there 10nm process.
     
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  40. sethk

    sethk [H]ard|Gawd

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    Typically process shrinks have brought an opportunity to have a big leap in perf/$ which can drive a lot of unit sales, and I feel like that hasn't happened this time, partly because of pricing decisions/lack of competitive pressures, but also because of wafer and semi costs and volume limitations. By the time AMD is able to offer something that moves the needle in the $350-700 ranges, I think Nvidia will be in line, probably just slightly more expensive.

    I do wonder if Intel will compete in the perf/$ stakes. Out the gate, if they are even able to, that would be a massive achievement given their stagnation in x86 and process missteps (after decades of nearly flawless execution on that front).
     
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