NVDA INTC & AMD Stock Discussion 070808

FrgMstr

FrgMstr

Just Plain Mean
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NVDA INTC & AMD

How did it go today? NVIDIA is still trying to find out what sub-$12 looks like. Intel looks like it did in April of 2007. And AMD still looks bad, but just not as bad as it has been with some positive movement.
 
Okay, I'll bite. Why? What's causing Nvidia's huge fall? So they have some problems with mobile chips, and they've reduced prices on cards, and they said they're not going to be as profitable as they thought. Big deal. They're still well in the game.
 
An announcement like that is a killer, not for what it really means, but what it sounds like. Someone uneducated is gonna see an article that says Nvidia screwed the pooch in notebook graphics chips so they avoid buying a notebook with a 8400M GS.
 
Guess Nvidia is paying heavy because of market conditions too. I'd bet they wouldn't have had such a haircut in better financial times.
 
Its a bear market for pretty much everything right now. Expect it to continue into 2009. Recessions suck.
 
Too many reasons:
1) Nvidia cannot do 55nm yet
2) Nvidia cannot do DX10.1 yet
3) Nvidia cannot do very well in the mobile chipset area
4) Nvidia's new IGP solutions are nothing like what GF MX 4xx series on Nforce2 boards used to be
5) Nvidia is being seriously threatened by ATI with its HD4000 series, and it appears that the GTX2xx cards are not as good as expected with limited "sacrifical" production... like as if Nvidia bet all of its eggs on the GT200 design while its stock price was already falling for several months, only to find out that ATI was not bluffing with its R700 promise.
 
RangerXML said:
An announcement like that is a killer, not for what it really means, but what it sounds like. Someone uneducated is gonna see an article that says Nvidia screwed the pooch in notebook graphics chips so they avoid buying a notebook with a 8400M GS.
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Hey lol i bought a notebook with an 8400M GS :)

Well, the said laptop is now back at DELL for repairs.
 
I think it is foolish to downplay Nvidia just yet. Nvidia is a large company that has performed well over the years. I little bump like this will not hurt Nvidia over the long term.
 
The editorial staff has nothing better to do apparently.
 
I'll just throw this out there, then, regarding stocks:

"Should I buy Nvidia?"
"Should I buy AMD?"

. . . and for fairness (with a sideways glance at Larrabee) . . .

"Should I buy Intel?
 
Does anyone have a suggestion for a good place to buy some stock online? I know you see commercials for companies on tv, but I don't know anyone that has used any of them. I would be a long term investor, not a buy it and sell it kind of guy. What would be a good way to get a little piece of a company right now?

 
hardware_failure said:
Its a bear market for pretty much everything right now. Expect it to continue into 2009. Recessions suck.
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I wouldn't say we are in a recession simply for the reason that businesses are still very liquid today so many still has not dipped into the credit debt yet. On the private front a lot of credit issues, a lot of financial restraints (gas, resources, mortgage crisis, falling dollar, etc), but the business side seems to be still decent.

I don't think we will see a recession, but I do believe we are in a slump that would be classified as a true recession if only businesses were in the same position as us private folks.

Bear Market, you got that right. I'm just glad I'm not an investor at this moment, a lot of gambling going on.
 
i've heard that 24 models on HP's lineup is affected by the nvidia mobile chip failure.... nvidia doesn't want to accept responsibility, but they'll probably end up footing the bill for all the repairs...

24 models is a pretty huge dent... and nvidia says be prepared to see a few other product lines affected....
graphics chips are like discrete chips, you can't just pull the card out of the pcie slot and stick the new one in.... you'll have to change out the mainboard in the laptop, which is labor $$$.... also on the smaller laptops with soldered CPU it means replacing that too...

it could concievably blow up into something quite large...

but there really is no other player besides AMD in the discrete graphics arena, so personally, i'd probably wait to see exactly how big this "mobile chip problem" is before i went in and invested... not that i don't think they'll get back on their feet eventually, but i just don't know how much more they'll lose before that happens....
 
Shotglass01 said:
Guess Nvidia is paying heavy because of market conditions too. I'd bet they wouldn't have had such a haircut in better financial times.
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Hah, by using haircut I can tell you work in finance in some capacity.

And for anyone predicting a continued decline in Nvidias shares, you can always short them...
 
I wouldn't put any sum of money into individual stocks unless you already have money to burn.

TheSpook said:
What does this mean?
Click to expand...

Selling short is the phrase that means you are selling a share that you don't actually own. You are required to repurchase that share by a later date, which is spelled out in the trade agreement. The idea is that it is cheaper in the future.
 
Shotglass01 said:
Okay, I'll bite. Why? What's causing Nvidia's huge fall? So they have some problems with mobile chips, and they've reduced prices on cards, and they said they're not going to be as profitable as they thought. Big deal. They're still well in the game.
Click to expand...

Nvidia's past boosts were based on their business expansion. They managed to get real growth with their motherboards, SLI, and videocards by being embraced by the average consumer as the premium solution.

Just a quick glance at their earnings shows that their operating costs are growing at a faster rate than their profits. That's especially troublesome for a company that's not currently doing so hot with their expansion attempts (cell phone chips, etc.).

You add all of that up... Lower sales with their mobile GPU's, higher operating costs, slim profits on their major money making GPU's and you're looking at a rough future even without strong threats from ATI and Intel. The stock price is just reflecting the direction that investors think NVDA is headed. Don't forget that the stock split around a year ago because it doubled during that year. ...so, it's not as bad as it looks (even though it's in the $11's). If you compare the stock price (with the split), it's basically where it was before AMD acquired ATI and around the time that SLI was mostly only being used by enthusiasts. Just looking at a graph and not knowing that there was a split makes it looks way worse than it is.
 
PynkFloydd said:
Nvidia's past boosts were based on their business expansion. They managed to get real growth with their motherboards, SLI, and videocards by being embraced by the average consumer as the premium solution.

Just a quick glance at their earnings shows that their operating costs are growing at a faster rate than their profits. That's especially troublesome for a company that's not currently doing so hot with their expansion attempts (cell phone chips, etc.).

You add all of that up... Lower sales with their mobile GPU's, higher operating costs, slim profits on their major money making GPU's and you're looking at a rough future even without strong threats from ATI and Intel. The stock price is just reflecting the direction that investors think NVDA is headed. Don't forget that the stock split around a year ago because it doubled during that year. ...so, it's not as bad as it looks (even though it's in the $11's). If you compare the stock price (with the split), it's basically where it was before AMD acquired ATI and around the time that SLI was mostly only being used by enthusiasts. Just looking at a graph and not knowing that there was a split makes it looks way worse than it is.
Click to expand...

In addition, stock price performance actually is not directly affected by the companie's performance. Stock performance is directly affected by people's perception about the companie's performance in relation to owning a share in the company.

A company could be insolvent on paper and be $100/per share.
 
TheSpook said:
I'll just throw this out there, then, regarding stocks:

"Should I buy Nvidia?"
"Should I buy AMD?"

. . . and for fairness (with a sideways glance at Larrabee) . . .

"Should I buy Intel?
Click to expand...

It would be irresponsible to discuss that online. Anyone without a series 7 or series 63 license should not be advising people on those matters. Directly telling someone to buy or sell a stock is actually illegal in some cases.

Discussing a certain company and letting people make the decision for themselves is a complete different ballgame.
 
PynkFloydd said:
It would be irresponsible to discuss that online. Anyone without a series 7 or series 63 license should not be advising people on those matters. Directly telling someone to buy or sell a stock is actually illegal in some cases.

Discussing a certain company and letting people make the decision for themselves is a complete different ballgame.
Click to expand...

Technically its a 6 and 63 to give advice. However you need a 7 to give advice on specific stocks. But you are right, it would be irresponsible for anyone to give advice one way or the other without first analyzing your complete financial situation.
 
For the average American consumer. However, by having 'dollar' costs and euro resale value, they're probably making a good profit overseas. A slowed American economy will slow them down, no doubt, but probably isn't going to be an e-brake to the business.
 
Sorry, forgot to add the following...


Also, Nvidia's new experiments in using their videocards for supercomputing could put them in the green with major supercomputers, companies and universities. Could get interesting...or a total flop. We'll have to see. :)
 
Chombo said:
Technically its a 6 and 63 to give advice. However you need a 7 to give advice on specific stocks. But you are right, it would be irresponsible for anyone to give advice one way or the other without first analyzing your complete financial situation.
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Actually, I think 63 is only a broker requirement and then it's "and", not "or". The requirements might vary by state. I know you have to be registered with the state if you deal with less than $25 million and the SEC if you deal over that. I looked up the IL regulations if you're only advising and it's Series 65 or Series 7 and Series 66.

http://www.ilga.gov/commission/jcar/admincode/014/014001300H08430R.html


Anyways...yeah, you have to be registered! Giving direct investment advice without a license is like performing surgery on a friend in a garage. ...it's just not a good idea and you could someone serious harm.
 
Wheresatom said:
Does anyone have a suggestion for a good place to buy some stock online? I know you see commercials for companies on tv, but I don't know anyone that has used any of them. I would be a long term investor, not a buy it and sell it kind of guy. What would be a good way to get a little piece of a company right now?

Click to expand...

I use Etrade and like several of their features. In terms of security they gave me a free RSA keychain that changes numbers every 30 seconds to type in, in terms of use they offered a ton of tutorials on what all the various stock terms mean, various scenarios were outlined to judge risk tolerance. They also had some of the lowest fees I could find - like to buy a mutual fund was either free for some funds or $19.99 for others whereas Ameritrade and Schwab wanted $49.99 for the same thing, and Fidelity wanted $75.00 for the same thing. Obviously if you intend to do any mutual fund buying Etrade is the winner there.
 
havand said:
For the average American consumer. However, by having 'dollar' costs and euro resale value, they're probably making a good profit overseas. A slowed American economy will slow them down, no doubt, but probably isn't going to be an e-brake to the business.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with your points, but I'm staying in cash for now. This slump may last a good long while. Of course, like anything (read everything), it'll recover eventually. A lot of it depends on how long you can wait to sell. There's so many cheap stocks out there now.

As to some of the other posts, they're right. What I think of Nvidia stocks means nothing. It all depends on what everybody else thinks of a stock.
 
Wheresatom said:
Does anyone have a suggestion for a good place to buy some stock online? I know you see commercials for companies on tv, but I don't know anyone that has used any of them. I would be a long term investor, not a buy it and sell it kind of guy. What would be a good way to get a little piece of a company right now?

Click to expand...

If you've never invested in the stock market directly before and not through a financial adviser I would keep a few points in mind.

1. Invest only what you can afford to lose.
2. Always do your research and this doesn't mean reading stock boards! They're the worst forums for objective information, always make up your own mind!
3. If you are still not sure about the stock don't bet on it! Never go by gut feeling.
4. Never let emotion get the best of you, ie never panic and never get greedy. Don't invest because of the hype!

Remember "Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered, sheep get sheared".
also
"If stock market experts were so expert, they would be buying stock, not selling advice." -Norman R. Augustine

A company's stock price is a barometer of investor sentiment in general, it's not the measure of the true worth of a company.
Investor sentiment can be manipulated to a certain extent, so never read the stock boards, there are semipro daytraders who try to manipulate sentiment and the stock price by inducing either euphoria, or fear in inexperienced investor, this is the fastest way to lose money if you listen to others.

And finally, always set a goal/target price for when you want to get out of the stock(both top and bottom), with the modern stock market it's not like a savings account where you can ignore it for months and come back to see some pay off. Never hold onto a stock out of hope that it will go back up, take the loss and learn, and never hold a stock past your top exit price out of greed, you would'nt believe how fast a stock can go into reverse gear and run your profits over!

As for NVidia, IMO they're still in decent shape with good cash and other assets, this price drop isn't permanent, though I wouldn't expect it to rebound in just a few days. Can't say if it will go lower though it wouldn't surprise me all that much. No guesses as to the bottom.
 
I don't think this means much in terms of nvidia, AMD or Intel overall stock performance in the end.. The stock market as a whole seems to be tanking. I think Nvidia picked the perfect time to pull a boner, if they fix it all up in the next few quarters that'll all be lost in the gains that'll follow when things start picking back up.
 
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