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Nehalem - Waiting Likely to Backfire?

W

WolfpupNX

Limp Gawd
Joined
Mar 13, 2007
Messages
167
Hey all,

I'm at a crossroads. I keep waiting on upgrading machines and was all set to go with something in the near future on the now mature X48 chipset, quad core processor, etc. Part of me, however, is worried about Nehalem and thinks maybe I should wait, because even though I can build an awesome rig now, my upgrade path as far as processor is essentially nonexistant.

On the other hand, I can't help but feeling Nehalem is going to be so new and different, and even if I were to be an early adopter, I might regret it due to several revisions before they have a final spec for mobos and even processors. How likely is it the socket may change in the early months and future processors won't be compatible, etc.? Any expert opinions? I know this chipset is going to do some impressive new things, which should mean a big jump in performance, but it also sounds like a lot of new problems could crop up as well...

(As to when I need a PC, I could really, really use an upgrade now...but I also *could* wait another 6 months or so if I really wanted to).

Thanks for any thoughts on this. I'm still really leaning towards soon, but I don't want to regret it.
 
You can get great CPUs now for ridiculous prices, DDR2 is dirt cheap, and ATi has the first graphics solution worth buying in five years, which will mean great deals from both nVidia and ATi. Now is a great time to build a new PC.

Q4 will not be a great time to build a Nehalem PC. The only Nehalems being released will be the higher-end models, and there will be price gouging. I find it unlikely there will be cheap Nehalem motherboards to go along with these expensive CPUs. Finally, Nehalem requires DDR3, which is still prohibitavely expensive. And then there's always the chance it's a flop.

Nehalem will probably be worlds faster, but I don't see our Core 2s turning obsolete on Nehalem's launch date. My socket 939 Athlon X2 lasted well into the days of Core 2, and even now I'm only upgrading because I want to go with CrossFire and DDR2.
 
WolfpupNX said:
Hey all,

I'm at a crossroads. I keep waiting on upgrading machines and was all set to go with something in the near future on the now mature X48 chipset, quad core processor, etc. Part of me, however, is worried about Nehalem and thinks maybe I should wait, because even though I can build an awesome rig now, my upgrade path as far as processor is essentially nonexistant.

On the other hand, I can't help but feeling Nehalem is going to be so new and different, and even if I were to be an early adopter, I might regret it due to several revisions before they have a final spec for mobos and even processors. How likely is it the socket may change in the early months and future processors won't be compatible, etc.? Any expert opinions? I know this chipset is going to do some impressive new things, which should mean a big jump in performance, but it also sounds like a lot of new problems could crop up as well...

(As to when I need a PC, I could really, really use an upgrade now...but I also *could* wait another 6 months or so if I really wanted to).

Thanks for any thoughts on this. I'm still really leaning towards soon, but I don't want to regret it.
Click to expand...

Nehalem will almost certainly launch as the new $1K Extreme chip, so keep that in mind as well if you are thinking about being an early adopter. Your chances of getting a "value" Nehanlem system in the next 6 months are slim to none. I would say instead of getting an X48 board, just grab a cheap P35 or one of the new P45 boards, a Quad CPU, and 4GB of DDR2 800 for less than $400. That should definitely hold its value until Nehalem is mainstream, all of the kinks will be worked out, and you can buy a great price/performance setup.
 
ocellaris said:
Nehalem will almost certainly launch as the new $1K Extreme chip, so keep that in mind as well if you are thinking about being an early adopter. Your chances of getting a "value" Nehanlem system in the next 6 months are slim to none. I would say instead of getting an X48 board, just grab a cheap P35 or one of the new P45 boards, a Quad CPU, and 4GB of DDR2 800 for less than $400. That should definitely hold its value until Nehalem is mainstream, all of the kinks will be worked out, and you can buy a great price/performance setup.
Click to expand...

+1.
 
Thanks for the great replies!

As to current specs - lol:
Pentium 4 Northwood 2.6 GHz (400 MHz FSB)
ASUS P4T-E Motherboard
1 GB RDRAM
GeForce 6800 Ultra AGP
Sound Blaster Audigy 2

Though it's been upgraded along the way, the core system, including mobo, is almost 7 years old. lol.

To be honest, I've been planning a pretty high-end build (DDR3 included and quad-core, possibly extreme), so I understand Nehalem will probably be only the highest end when it initially releases. Let's say for the moment that's fine - is it likely there are going to still be unanticipated problems and changes? (I do realize this question is somewhat unreasonable as it's asking to essentially predict the future...but I suppose I'm asking based on some expert experience over several chipset launches - I've never really been an early adopter before.)

Thanks again for the feedback! I've already come close to building and put this off...well...it's been over a year at this point I think. lol. And I realize I can't keep doing this forever.
 
WolfpupNX said:
Thanks for the great replies!

As to current specs - lol:
Pentium 4 Northwood 2.6 GHz (400 MHz FSB)
ASUS P4T-E Motherboard
1 GB RDRAM
GeForce 6800 Ultra AGP
Sound Blaster Audigy 2

Though it's been upgraded along the way, the core system, including mobo, is almost 7 years old. lol.

To be honest, I've been planning a pretty high-end build (DDR3 included and quad-core, possibly extreme), so I understand Nehalem will probably be only the highest end when it initially releases. Let's say for the moment that's fine - is it likely there are going to still be unanticipated problems and changes? (I do realize this question is somewhat unreasonable as it's asking to essentially predict the future...but I suppose I'm asking based on some expert experience over several chipset launches - I've never really been an early adopter before.)

Thanks again for the feedback! I've already come close to building and put this off...well...it's been over a year at this point I think. lol. And I realize I can't keep doing this forever.
Click to expand...

Well I am not saying Intel would pull and AMD, but AMD definitely launched the Phenom chips with a flaw that was absolutely crippling in some environments. Its 2008 and all, however CPU makers are not beyond possible flaws.

Also I do not see the point in building up a Quad Extreme build right now unless you just want to toss some money around (which is fine). You can get an absolutely amazing amount of CPU/mobo/RAM performance for <$500, wait for Nehalem to settle down, then build a smoking rig based on Nehalem when you are confident its not going to have problems.
 
IMHO...

If you're set on spending well over $1k - maybe more like $2k+, I'd wait for Nehalem and go nuts with the DDR3, extreme quad core chip, Nvidia 280 etc. I doubt you'd be disappointed with a setup like that, it will be good for at least a few years and I seriously doubt Intel is going to let any problems pop up with Nehalem.

If you want to spend well under $2k - maybe even less than $1k, go with a current quad core, DDR2 and a sub $500 video card. Also unlikely to be disappointed, also possibly good for 2 years or more but as you said, no upgrade path to future CPUs. This is the route I just went after thinking I was going to wait for Nehalem - stuff just got SO darn cheap I couldn't resist lol. :)
 
I've also been debating this (as many have).

Because of Intel's QuickPath, DDR3, and dynamic scalability; I'll be holding my breath until Q4.
 
I agree, if you have the money now, say 1.5 to 2K or so, wait for Nehalem. For those who need/want an excellent setup but don't need to be on the cutting edge of technology grab a current quad core while you can. I debated waiting until Nehalem but with the Q6600 at such great prices and the P35 chipset at it's prime I decided to buy. I probably won't even use all the power the Q6600 has to offer in the next few years anyhow so I think I made a good choice. I don't have 2K to drop on a new Nehalem system anyway:p It's going to be one awesome setup for sure but there will always be glitches and small niggles to work out whenever a product is first released.
 
Maybe Nehalem will be uber expensive at launch, maybe not. If this is accurate:

http://en.expreview.com/2008/06/10/intel-roadmap-update-nehalem-to-enter-mainstream-market/

...then we may see somewhat affordable Nehalem chips by the end of this year. It looks like in Q4 the 2.66 Nehalem will be taking the place of the Q9450, which is now selling for $329 at Newegg. Sure, that's not cheap, but it's nowhere near the $1k mark lots of people are saying it will be. Assuming the prices will stay approx. the same, that may be a decent option for some. Then again, paired with 3-6Gb of DDR3 with good timings and an X58 board (knowing how Intel chipsets run $-wise), it may be a different story.

Still, OP, if you've made it this far, you can probably wait another couple of months until some hard data regarding Nehalem performance comes out. At least, I hope we'll be seeing that in a few months time...
 
There is hard data:
First keep in mind that these performance numbers are early, and they were run on a partly crippled, very early platform. With that preface, the fact that Nehalem is still able to post these 20 - 50% performance gains says only one thing about Intel's tick-tock cadence: they did it.

We've been told to expect a 20 - 30% overall advantage over Penryn and it looks like Intel is on track to delivering just that in Q4. At 2.66GHz, Nehalem is already faster than the fastest 3.2GHz Penryns on the market today. At 3.2GHz, I'd feel comfortable calling it baby Skulltrail in all but the most heavily threaded benchmarks. This thing is fast and this is on a very early platform, keep in mind that Nehalem doesn't launch until Q4 of this year.
Click to expand...
http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/intel/showdoc.aspx?i=3326&p=1

I'd forgotten about how big the performance delta really is...making me have second thoughts about my Q6600 upgrade.

Still, I stand by the fact that even if the CPUs are affordable, the motherboards and RAM prices are what will get you. Even trying to find an affordable X38 motherboard is a pain in the neck, and DDR3 is more than twice times the price of DDR2 at the 2x2 GB price point.
 
You might as well upgrade now sensibly mind you as it looks like you've not upgraded technology over the last several generations anyways
 
Meh not worth waiting.
Go with cheap Q6600, by the time quad @3.4-3.6 Ghz will not be enough Nehalems will be lying in bargain bins :D
 
qwksi1 said:
You might as well upgrade now sensibly mind you as it looks like you've not upgraded technology over the last several generations anyways
Click to expand...
Yeah, my choices are pretty much go without a desktop for the summer (already started parting out the desktop in the FS/T forum) and save up for Nehalem by Christmas, or get a Q6600 (Q9450 if I'm lucky) build now and keep it for another three years.
 
What you've got is definitely a bit long in the tooth. My parents have a better leftover rig than that, although it's based on the same platform (Northwood 2.4C@3.2, 2GB DDR333.)

If you're really trying to just get a better system to play newer games, then an E2180 OC'd, P35, cheap 4GB DDR2 kit, and an HD4850 is pretty hard to beat for an entry level gaming system.
 
I'm in the same boat as you with a similar current rig. I'm planning to go the q6600 route and wait to see how the new ATI cards match against NVIDIA. With today's games, I would rather have a beefed up video card (or two) than the latest CPU because the q6600 seems to be more than enough.
 
Only wait for Nehalem if you plan to rebuild in April 2009. I'd bet the majority of good options won't launch until Q2...maybe even later for stable products if things go south.
 
WolfpupNX said:
Thanks for the great replies!

As to current specs - lol:
Pentium 4 Northwood 2.6 GHz (400 MHz FSB)
ASUS P4T-E Motherboard
1 GB RDRAM
GeForce 6800 Ultra AGP
Sound Blaster Audigy 2

Though it's been upgraded along the way, the core system, including mobo, is almost 7 years old. lol.

To be honest, I've been planning a pretty high-end build (DDR3 included and quad-core, possibly extreme), so I understand Nehalem will probably be only the highest end when it initially releases. Let's say for the moment that's fine - is it likely there are going to still be unanticipated problems and changes? (I do realize this question is somewhat unreasonable as it's asking to essentially predict the future...but I suppose I'm asking based on some expert experience over several chipset launches - I've never really been an early adopter before.)

Thanks again for the feedback! I've already come close to building and put this off...well...it's been over a year at this point I think. lol. And I realize I can't keep doing this forever.
Click to expand...

wow your system is nearly identical to mine! im waiting on nehalem and planning to build one feb/march next year. by that time it will be more mainstream with some of the bugs ironed out already/ However if i had the money know i would build now.
 
I don't care if it takes another year for affordable Nehalem's to be available. I've already made up my mind that I'm going to wait for it. Plus, it gives me extra time to save up money. I can muster another year out of my rig.
 
I'm thinking that relatively affordable Nehalem chips will depend solely on intel's yields. If they have bad yields, you'll see a $1k Extreme chip for the desktop and Xeons ranging from affordable to ultra-expensive. If their yields are good, on the other hand, you'll probably see a couple speed bins on the desktop side and prices at roughly $350-$400 for the bottom bin. I'm just guessing here.

Hopefully the Nehalem rollout is a lot less messy than the 45nm/Hi-K rollout was.
 
We won't see cheap Nehalems in 2008 and maybe not until very late in 2009 I'll bet. Doesn't make sense to worry about unrelased products unless they are literally due out in weeks (not months or years). I'll bump this machine to a quad core and newer GPUs next year and ride it until Windows 7 SP1 most likely.
 
I'm still on a 2002 system, Pentium 4 2.8GHz, 160GB HDD, 1GB ram, Asus P4B mobo, GeForce 6600 etc

I just ordered the parts for a new system (Q9450, P5Q Dulx, 4GB DDR 800Hz, GeForce9 etc) as I don't want the first generation Nehalem! First generation computer stuff normally has problems that need to be sorted out and it's always sold at a premium.

775 is at it's prime and it's cheap as chips!

Buy now and upgrade to Nehalem when all the problems are ironed out and it's reasonably priced! You'll save yourself money and heartache...
 
Superhuman said:
I don't care if it takes another year for affordable Nehalem's to be available. I've already made up my mind that I'm going to wait for it. Plus, it gives me extra time to save up money. I can muster another year out of my rig.
Click to expand...
That's where I'm at. My "old dog" system is in my sig and has been working great for quite some time. I've come close to pulling the trigger several times but the leaked benchmarks for Nehalem convinced me.....I'm waiting....:cool:
 
If Nehalem exceeds what Anand currently benched...then the prices WON'T drop unless AMD actually has something that will compete. The thing is, if you buy a decent core 2 or quad system right now but base your case and PSU based upon Nehalem...you should be able to ge back at least 50% of your mobo/CPU/RAM cost on the forums here. Therefore...get a nice boost in performance for maybe a $300 charge over a period of 1 year (maybe when Nehalem will better priced and DDR3 won't be killing the wallet).
 
Thanks for all of the responses! I've done some thinking and more research, and I really am on the verge of pulling the trigger I think.

I've thought about all your responses, and essentially, since I do want something relatively soon, and since this machine is my life (work as well as games and such), it makes more sense to upgrade now, then consider swapping mobo/CPU later. I have a feeling if I wait, I'll be stuck in this pattern forever waiting to make sure mobos for Nehalem are stable, etc. And since the future's up in the air, who knows how long that will take or what improvements will be made for the first motherboards/how far they'll support future CPU's of a first generation?

I understand the thinking of people waiting, and am still considering it, but I'm really more and more coming to the conclusion that I have some nicely priced hardware now that's tried, true, mature, and pretty stellarly reviewed. Pretty hard to pass up.

Thanks again and more responses certainly welcome!
 
I would go with the stuff out now. If you play the waiting game for Nehalem, be prepared to wait a long time. I remember when the conroes "launched" availability and motherboards were scarce. When retailers had them in stock, they charged premiums for the products. So you can expect behavior like that for the first few months of the chip coming out. But you do get to be the first to find a bunch of bugs and compatibility issues =P
 
I personally make a FULL upgrade every 2 years in December, the only thing i upgrade every year and a half-ish being the videocard. My December 2006's C2D E6400 that i have @ 3.00 will be fine until December 2009 :)

the only way ill buy a new/better cpu is if a family member wants a new pc and then ill install the E6400 in that pc and get me something else.
 
ADRENALIN_2099 said:
I personally make a FULL upgrade every 2 years in December, the only thing i upgrade every year and a half-ish being the videocard. My December 2006's C2D E6400 that i have @ 3.00 will be fine until December 2009 :)

the only way ill buy a new/better cpu is if a family member wants a new pc and then ill install the E6400 in that pc and get me something else.
Click to expand...

thats 3 years till you enxt upgrade LOL. by your logic you should get a nehalem end of this year LOL
 
I was in the same situation as you and I pulled the trigger. After 4 years on a P4 I couldn't wait any longer, I had a buyer for the P4 and mobo and I grabbed an E8400 and transferred in my existing power supplies, 8800GT and 2GB PC5300. A few games wouldn't even run on my old system and I decided that RAM and CPU's may not be this cheap again for years.

Nehalem may be awesome, may be a flop, and I don't expect to see affordable mainstream processors until early to middle of next year based on information that I've seen. That could be essentially another year for me and a lot of the games coming out wouldn't be playable and my P4 would have been worthless at the time of purchase.

I outlived the urge to upgrade to an AMD processor when they were all the rage and then the first wave of CD2's and Quads, vowing to wait for the Wolfdales. I could wait forever but it was time, my rig was becoming useless. So 1 vote to buy now, I'm glad I did, it made a huge difference.
 
im on a p4 rig myself but i got my 360 and ps3 to keep me occupied gaming wise for at least a year. other then gaming, my p4 can still browse the net, listen to music and even play HD movies
 
If you are willing to spend more than $2k on the setup (the CPU alone would nearly cost $1k if not more) I would suggest that you should spend $1k now on a quad core system with DDR2 and later spend another $1k when the Nahalem and DDR3 price have dropped. You will then have two working systems.
 
If it were me...

I would get a good PC now.
9800GTX to GTX 280 type of card.
Quad core with P35 or P45 mobo
4GB ram
etc. etc.

Kind of like what i got now in my sig.
I couldn't bring myself to spend more money to go higher than this.
And I wouldn't get Nehalem as it's launched. Something will be broken somewhere.
Be it the chipsets, the RAM, the mobo, or maybe even the Chip.

And you just paying out your backside of newnes and 3 to 5 months of e-penis.

I'm waiting for the second wave and then the price drop. (like when Q6600 dropped in price)
 
trust me if i had teh funds i would buy now but i wont have it till another 6-8 months and at that time nehalem will be out already and i dont see a point buying a quad core/p45 at that point in time
 
After putting in a HD4850, I can run any game @ 1920 very well as it is so upgrading now is looking silly seeing what is on the horizon. I'm on a first edition dual core (Pentium D 830) but because I dumped so much money into exceptional memory, raid, motherboard, etc., I'm still rolling three years later and now looking into a fourth.

I'm just sad I dumped $650 into an GTX 7800 KO OC (evga's monster heatsink card) and it is now getting schooled by my $140 HD4850...I don't think I'll ever dump into a top of the line video card again since it makes such a dramatic difference in upgrading on a yearly/biyearly basis.
 
I don't really see what could go terribly wrong with the first gen nehalem stuff... I haven't been much of an early adopter for CPU/Mobo though. Seems to me that you might have problem with gen 1 suff and overclocking. But if you've got an Extreme Edition proc then OC'ing won't be essential. The other thing is that Windows installation might throw up some issues. But I can't imagine anything apocalyptic happening to jeopardize nehalem at launch.
 
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