If You Bought $100 of Bitcoin 7 Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting on $72.9 Million Now

Chas said:
So your answer is "Just withdraw it slowly over 20 years"?

Yeah, no.
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So work a dayjob, and withdraw 0.2% as much, even more slowly, over your lifetime.

Also, $10,000 a day is an extremely low amount compared to what a person can do.
 
Delicieuxz said:
So work a dayjob, and withdraw 0.2% as much, even more slowly, over your lifetime.

Also, $10,000 a day is an extremely low amount compared to what a person can do.
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You've never heard the term "opportunity cost" have you?
 
All these people crying about only being able to make tens of thousands a month is amazing.
 
tetris42 said:
All these people crying about only being able to make tens of thousands a month is amazing.
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Its the same people who made fun of all the bitcoin "monopoly money" for years. They dont know what to do now(admitting they were wrong is not viable) so they are desperately trying to facbricate SOME kind of argument

"Hahaahaha , you can never get 72 million dollars out at once! Have fun only living on $50k a month with virtually no work involved! Bitcoin is such a scam!!"
 
DeathFromBelow said:
Who exactly is buying 'tens of thousands' worth of bitcoin every month in USD?
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The moving voulume for bitcoin for the last 24hrs is $1,297,720,000. There is a fuckton of money moving around in it, 50k a day is a drop in the water. Just look on any exchange order book and see the massive buy and sell walls.
 
nvgrim said:
The moving voulume for bitcoin for the last 24hrs is $1,297,720,000. There is a fuckton of money moving around in it, 50k a day is a drop in the water. Just look on any exchange order book and see the massive buy and sell walls.
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You're making the same error Retronym made.

$1.2b dollars of volume moving around inside a market is not an accurate way to value the liquidation of those assets.
Bitcoin's current price is directly tied to the current supply and demand of a bitcoin. Once the supply is increased, the price goes down. More problematic, if people holding bitcoins observe millions of dollars of bitcoins being sold at once, that would trigger an accelerated sell-off from others thereby pushing the value down even further. People are going to sell quicker because they want out at the highest price possible and/or because they are panicking about the future value dropping too low.

In fact, bitcoins have experienced value troughs due to panic selling in each year from 2017 back to 2011 (I stopped researching older than 2011 since 6 years seems sufficient to demonstrate the point--especially given the fact Mt.Gox was created in 2010 and bitcoins themselves in 2009).

It sounds like you and Retronym are responding to criticisms that bitcoin will die out when this happens, a concern voiced every time panic selling occurs and one that has not yet materialized. That's not the point we're making, however, and the fact that bitcoin values have rebounded each time does not mean one can ignore market fundamentals.

The point we are raising is that there are numerous (some structural, some market driven) factors that make it so one can not realistically convert $72m dollars worth of bitcoins into $72m dollars of cash. The primary issue you and he continue to ignore is that $72m dollar valuation is dependent upon not selling them. Once they start to be sold, the price will drop. The faster they are sold, the faster their value will drop. This isn't an indictment of bitcoins; this is a reality that any market driven valuation must contend with whether the person is selling bitcoins, gold, stocks, or even video game codes on this forum.
 
mope54 said:
You're making the same error Retronym made.

$1.2b dollars of volume moving around inside a market is not an accurate way to value the liquidation of those assets.
Bitcoin's current price is directly tied to the current supply and demand of a bitcoin. Once the supply is increased, the price goes down. More problematic, if people holding bitcoins observe millions of dollars of bitcoins being sold at once, that would trigger an accelerated sell-off from others thereby pushing the value down even further. People are going to sell quicker because they want out at the highest price possible and/or because they are panicking about the future value dropping too low.

In fact, bitcoins have experienced value troughs due to panic selling in each year from 2017 back to 2011 (I stopped researching older than 2011 since 6 years seems sufficient to demonstrate the point--especially given the fact Mt.Gox was created in 2010 and bitcoins themselves in 2009).

It sounds like you and Retronym are responding to criticisms that bitcoin will die out when this happens, a concern voiced every time panic selling occurs and one that has not yet materialized. That's not the point we're making, however, and the fact that bitcoin values have rebounded each time does not mean one can ignore market fundamentals.

The point we are raising is that there are numerous (some structural, some market driven) factors that make it so one can not realistically convert $72m dollars worth of bitcoins into $72m dollars of cash. The primary issue you and he continue to ignore is that $72m dollar valuation is dependent upon not selling them. Once they start to be sold, the price will drop. The faster they are sold, the faster their value will drop. This isn't an indictment of bitcoins; this is a reality that any market driven valuation must contend with whether the person is selling bitcoins, gold, stocks, or even video game codes on this forum.
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Why would the supply increase? other than people selling back their coins and miners mining new blocks, the supply will never go over 21,000,000BTC. And the block reward gets half'ed every so often as well as the difficulty rises. I know that marketcaps and moving volume isnt a 100% sure way to tell if a market is active, i actually used to mess with shitcoins and buy and sell 1 coin at a high price just to fudge the numbers for the lols, but it does show that money is moving around. Also if you had 72million in BTC you wouldn't want to cash out all of that anyways. I believe coinbase has a $50k a day sell limit. Sell for a week and youll have $350k which is more than enough to live with for a bit while you figure out the rest of the finances. Have you sold bitcoins got fiat before? its incredibly easy, plus who says you need to cash them out. There are some exotic car dealerships that take BTC as payment.
 
nvgrim,

I hope this doesn't come across as impolite, but I wish you understood more about the topic so I wouldn't have to waste both of our time explaining extremely rudimentary concepts.

The current $2200 dollar conversion rate of bitcoin:USD is based on how many are being offered for sale. In order to convert them to cash one has to sell them to someone and once someone decides to liquidate his or her bitcoins for cash that increases the supply being offered on the market for cash. This has nothing to do with the total amount of bitcoins that exist or could potentially exist; this supply issue is in reference to the amount currently being offered for sale in an exchange market.

Talking about dollar amounts of bitcoins moving around in total volume is completely irrelevant to the topic. You state that you realize it's not 100% way to indicate whether a market is active but that it's indicative of "money" moving around. The topic is not whether the bitcoin market is "active," but whether liquidating one's position en masse would plunge the value of bitcoins. The question of whether a market is active or not is a completely different subject and one that I doubt anyone here disagrees over--clearly the bitcoin market is active. Secondly, the estimated dollar amount of bitcoins moving around among people using bitcoins merely tells us how much bitcoin "money" is moving around. It has zero relationship to how much USD are changing hands, which (again) is the subject of our discussion.

Lastly, while one can purchase a myriad of goods with bitcoins that also has zero relationship to the impact divesting $72m dollars worth of bitcoin would have on the value of bitcoins. The conversation is: if you have X amount of bitcoins you have Y amount of US dollars. This is false. If you have X amount of bitcoins you have a stake worth Y amount of USD, but once you divest it (and if you do so rapidly) you will end up with Z amount of USD rather than Y. Unless something happens that would contradict every single fundamental market principle, Z will always be less than Y.

(as an aside, if you can only liquidate $50K worth of bitcoin per day, then you obviously can not estimate your total valuation based on a static price of bitcoin as of May 30th, 2017. By the end of the week the value will certainly have shifted. It could go up, it could go down--and if people are divesting $50K per day the value would obviously go down given what I've explained to you already--but basic common sense should allow you to understand why selling $50K per day means that if you have $72m dollars worth of bitcoins that won't be the amount you actually realize once your four years of sell-off are complete...or did you not do the math and realize that $50K per day requires over 1400 days of selling to liquidate your position?)

These posts highlight one of the major impediments to having rational discussions with bitcoin proponents who do not have the proper training or understanding about how exchange markets operate. It's difficult, if not impossible, to develop sane policies and safeguards about bitcoin when some of the more vocal proponents of its use lack the basic building blocks to understand the points being made or even what the discussion is about.
 
mope54 said:
nvgrim,

I hope this doesn't come across as impolite, but I wish you understood more about the topic so I wouldn't have to waste both of our time explaining extremely rudimentary concepts.

The current $2200 dollar conversion rate of bitcoin:USD is based on how many are being offered for sale. In order to convert them to cash one has to sell them to someone and once someone decides to liquidate his or her bitcoins for cash that increases the supply being offered on the market for cash. This has nothing to do with the total amount of bitcoins that exist or could potentially exist; this supply issue is in reference to the amount currently being offered for sale in an exchange market.

Talking about dollar amounts of bitcoins moving around in total volume is completely irrelevant to the topic. You state that you realize it's not 100% way to indicate whether a market is active but that it's indicative of "money" moving around. The topic is not whether the bitcoin market is "active," but whether liquidating one's position en masse would plunge the value of bitcoins. The question of whether a market is active or not is a completely different subject and one that I doubt anyone here disagrees over--clearly the bitcoin market is active. Secondly, the estimated dollar amount of bitcoins moving around among people using bitcoins merely tells us how much bitcoin "money" is moving around. It has zero relationship to how much USD are changing hands, which (again) is the subject of our discussion.

Lastly, while one can purchase a myriad of goods with bitcoins that also has zero relationship to the impact divesting $72m dollars worth of bitcoin would have on the value of bitcoins. The conversation is: if you have X amount of bitcoins you have Y amount of US dollars. This is false. If you have X amount of bitcoins you have a stake worth Y amount of USD, but once you divest it (and if you do so rapidly) you will end up with Z amount of USD rather than Y. Unless something happens that would contradict every single fundamental market principle, Z will always be less than Y.

(as an aside, if you can only liquidate $50K worth of bitcoin per day, then you obviously can not estimate your total valuation based on a static price of bitcoin as of May 30th, 2017. By the end of the week the value will certainly have shifted. It could go up, it could go down--and if people are divesting $50K per day the value would obviously go down given what I've explained to you already--but basic common sense should allow you to understand why selling $50K per day means that if you have $72m dollars worth of bitcoins that won't be the amount you actually realize once your four years of sell-off are complete...or did you not do the math and realize that $50K per day requires over 1400 days of selling to liquidate your position?)

These posts highlight one of the major impediments to having rational discussions with bitcoin proponents who do not have the proper training or understanding about how exchange markets operate. It's difficult, if not impossible, to develop sane policies and safeguards about bitcoin when some of the more vocal proponents of its use lack the basic building blocks to understand the points being made or even what the discussion is about.
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Not impolite, but i already understand how the markets work, Ive been in crypto since the 2013 bubble. There has to be buyers and sellers for the market to move, and if a seller has 1 bitcoin listed for sale at $2300 and someone buys it then that's the new current high and what will equate to your current worth in bitcoin. And i know that crypto is super volatile and changes constantly, so $72 million in bitcoin one day could be worth $30 million the next. The original poster ask "who exactly is buying these 10's of thousands in bitcoin everyday" and i told him what the market is like. Probably did a crappy job, but if you look in some exchanges there are some huge buy orders 100+ BTC and currently right now 100 BTC= ~$215k.
 
Apparently Bitcoin hit another record in the past 24 hours, some sites say it cracked $3,000 but all the charts I keep finding show it topped out at about $2977 and change, even so if you could have dumped that original $100 investment at 0.003 cents per Bitcoin at the moment it hit $2977 that would have translated to $99,233,333, geez.

It's dropped down to about about $2673 as I'm making this post but damn, that's truly depressing to consider. :D
 
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