How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis

[HardOCP News]

I knew it! Electric cars will be the downfall of society. There will be mayhem in the streets and the only way to escape will be your crappy little electric car and a really long extension cord. The rest of us meat eaters will be driving gas guzzling murder machines ala Mad Max.

But here’s what we know: In the next few years, Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range. Other carmakers and tech companies are investing billions on dozens of new models. By 2020, some of these will cost less and perform better than their gasoline counterparts. The aim would be to match the success of Tesla’s Model S, which now outsells its competitors in the large luxury class in the U.S. The question then is how much oil demand will these cars displace? And when will the reduced demand be enough to tip the scales and cause the next oil crisis?

 

[DukenukemX]

What oil crisis? The one where prices are so low that I should start using gasoline for my cereal instead of milk? If electric cars don't ruin the oil business, solar and wind power will.

 

[tetris42]

Yeah, I like how they're worried about EV replacing 1/3 of cars by 2040. We could totally have peak oil prior to that, then everything's fucked. Our period of cheap oil will not last forever, it's OPEC playing with fire, because once production starts slowing, it's going to drop off faster than it would have before. This article blows my mind calling it a "crisis" to reduce our demand for oil. Modern civilization is incredibly dependent on oil and it's not going to last forever. We're already decades behind where we should be to have a smooth transition off it, the more we can offset it the better. It won't be enough under pretty much any scenario.

 

[OregonLAN]

Honestly, I'd love to own an all electric vehicle. I only commute ~6 miles one way and rarely drive long distances. However, until they make an all-electric vehicle that I can afford, there's really no reason for me to switch from gas to electric. Even at $5.50 a gallon, it would take me 10+ years to offset the costs of an all electric vehicle. It would be smarter for me to buy a used/inexpensive gas/hybrid vehicle that gets 30 - 45MPG.

 

[Marcdaddy]

Biggest problem is our government will lose TONS of money is gas tax revenue, then they will start taxing electric cars to the point of the same equivalence of gas powered vehicle. Always trying to keep the man down!

 

[Jagger100]

Oil Crisis only if you profited from selling something that was (and probably still is) more profit than actual cost to produce.

 

[sfsuphysics]

Biggest problem is our government will lose TONS of money is gas tax revenue, then they will start taxing electric cars to the point of the same equivalence of gas powered vehicle. Always trying to keep the man down!

They've been complaining about "efficient cars" for a long LONG time not even just electric cars, and of course they always bring up a per-mile idea on taxing cars. However when SUVs became big ticket items where they were simply bigger, heavier and less efficient than many trucks and brought the average MPG rating down no one said lower the gas tax because we're making too much money.

Personally I'd rather do without a gas tax and just roll road maintenance into local budgets. In CA they seem to repave the road to Lake Tahoe like every other year, obviously some of that "everyone is coming here" tourist money is doing good.

 

[nilepez]

They've been complaining about "efficient cars" for a long LONG time not even just electric cars, and of course they always bring up a per-mile idea on taxing cars. However when SUVs became big ticket items where they were simply bigger, heavier and less efficient than many trucks and brought the average MPG rating down no one said lower the gas tax because we're making too much money.

Personally I'd rather do without a gas tax and just roll road maintenance into local budgets. In CA they seem to repave the road to Lake Tahoe like every other year, obviously some of that "everyone is coming here" tourist money is doing good.

Taking an Explorer (random choice), the MPG in 1992 (last tax increase was 93) was 17/22 and today it's 20/28. Cars are even more efficient. And I don't see how you're going to make federal highways a local issue. Who's paying for highways in the middle of nowhere in West Texas? Have you driven on 10 between El Paso and San Antonio? There's virtually nothing there. What's more, most of the wear is from people just driving by.

 

[nilepez]

Oil Crisis only if you profited from selling something that was (and probably still is) more profit than actual cost to produce.

Only a few areas in the U.S. are profitable at current prices. It's a crisis, however, because you'll suddenly have a lot of blue collar workers out of work. If that happens over a long period of time, it probably won't be a problem, but if the current prices continue or get lower, it's going to be pretty rough.

That said, we're not going to suddenly move to wind and solar anytime soon. Current oil prices are not going to encourage most to buy electric cars. Even hybrid sales are suffering. I just paid a 1.50 for gas. If they stay down here, most people will just by traditional cars.

 

[Jagger100]

They've been complaining about "efficient cars" for a long LONG time not even just electric cars, and of course they always bring up a per-mile idea on taxing cars. However when SUVs became big ticket items where they were simply bigger, heavier and less efficient than many trucks and brought the average MPG rating down no one said lower the gas tax because we're making too much money.

Personally I'd rather do without a gas tax and just roll road maintenance into local budgets. In CA they seem to repave the road to Lake Tahoe like every other year, obviously some of that "everyone is coming here" tourist money is doing good.

Actually a large part of the justification for a gas tax was to motivate cars to become more efficient. Like most such efforts, it was insincere and driven by an alternate agenda.

 

[Jagger100]

Only a few areas in the U.S. are profitable at current prices. It's a crisis, however, because you'll suddenly have a lot of blue collar workers out of work. If that happens over a long period of time, it probably won't be a problem, but if the current prices continue or get lower, it's going to be pretty rough.

That said, we're not going to suddenly move to wind and solar anytime soon. Current oil prices are not going to encourage most to buy electric cars. Even hybrid sales are suffering. I just paid a 1.50 for gas. If they stay down here, most people will just by traditional cars.

15 years ago we had a decade of gas prices around $1 and nobody was going bankrupt. Inflation adjusted gas should be about what it is today and people can still make a living. The 15 years between was all gravy, greedy gravy. If the industry is struggling right now, its because they got fat and inefficient and deserve to loose their ass to another technology.

 

[nilepez]

15 years ago we had a decade of gas prices around $1 and nobody was going bankrupt. Inflation adjusted gas should be about what it is today and people can still make a living. The 15 years between was all gravy, greedy gravy. If the industry is struggling right now, its because they got fat and inefficient and deserve to loose their ass to another technology.

Gas production in the U.S. is more expensive now than it was then. They can't produce oil in most places for $30.00 a barrel. The Saudi's can (there cost is probably 10 bucks/barrel). It's not about fat. The easy oil in the U.S. has been found. There's a reason they didn't frack when oil was cheap...it just wasn't feasible. Now I'd argue fracking is generally bad, but Fracking is always the reason why we have so much cheap LNG, which is the cleanest non-renewable energy and the way that a lot of houses are heated.

 

[Betaboy1983]

Mad Maxxis 4x4 Off Road-Runner. Doughnuts, eating doughnuts while doing doughnuts, racing around, climbing rocks, shooting zombies from the back, dust, dirt, diesel fuel spilling everywhere. Need I say more? Seen it first in my son's Petersons's 4x4 magazine.


Edit.. That was supposed to be a hyperlink, can't seem to not have it embedded.
Good enough... Night all!

 

[Twisted Kidney]

Shit changes. Today's hottest shit is the abandoned, cold shit of tomorrow. The only real constant in the world is change.

 

[Jagger100]

Gas production in the U.S. is more expensive now than it was then. They can't produce oil in most places for $30.00 a barrel. The Saudi's can (there cost is probably 10 bucks/barrel). It's not about fat. The easy oil in the U.S. has been found. There's a reason they didn't frack when oil was cheap...it just wasn't feasible. Now I'd argue fracking is generally bad, but Fracking is always the reason why we have so much cheap LNG, which is the cleanest non-renewable energy and the way that a lot of houses are heated.

Why do we need to get gas from the US. The public isn't required to by US cars or US televisions, why are they required to buy US oil? Still fucking cheap to pump from the gound in SA.

 

[TechLarry]

If there is ever another oil crisis, it will be 100% greed driven and caused by the Oil Companies, not due to any lack of oil available. It will be man made, not nature made.

 

[sleepeeg3]

If electric cars don't ruin the oil business, solar and wind power will.

Hah! Not likely. Solar and wind are nowhere near to competing with coal/oil. Unsubsidized all electric cars for $30k will also never happen. Author is huffing Musk's hot air.

 

[nilepez]

Why do we need to get gas from the US. The public isn't required to by US cars or US televisions, why are they required to buy US oil? Still fucking cheap to pump from the gound in SA.

Did you miss the part about how it will hurt workers, which hurts the economy if it happens too quickly?

 

[nilepez]

Hah! Not likely. Solar and wind are nowhere near to competing with coal/oil. Unsubsidized all electric cars for $30k will also never happen. Author is huffing Musk's hot air.

Never is a long time. The Bolt is going to hit that with subsidies to start and I suspect that the price of these cars will drop as time goes on. That said, I still think for the foreseeable future, hybrids make more sense.

 

[nightfly]

I think the oil producers will make oil so cheap, that interest in electric cars (and hyrdogen and all other alternative fuels) will disappear. Then the oil companies will buy up the patents that exist to make electric cars (and hydrogen, etc.) feasible (like Texaco did when the electric Toyota Rav4 was out 17 years ago) and shut down production of them. Then they will raise oil prices again.

 

[B00nie]

The oil demand will go nowhere. Electric cars are just a vanity fab of the top wealthiest 1% of the planet. The rest of the world will continue to drive on gas.

 

[nilepez]

I think the oil producers will make oil so cheap, that interest in electric cars (and hyrdogen and all other alternative fuels) will disappear. Then the oil companies will buy up the patents that exist to make electric cars (and hydrogen, etc.) feasible (like Texaco did when the electric Toyota Rav4 was out 17 years ago) and shut down production of them. Then they will raise oil prices again.

Not gonna happen. This isn't 1999..and I'm not sure why Toyota would sell patents to Texaco, but it really doesn't matter. Electric cars are not good for long distance travel, so Gas cars remain necessary in many parts of the country/people to travel long distances for any reason

The oil demand will go nowhere. Electric cars are just a vanity fab of the top wealthiest 1% of the planet. The rest of the world will continue to drive on gas.

If the Bolt and Model III are are roughly 30k, they're not just for the rich. They aren't cheap, but they're in the same price range as a Fusion or Camry.

 

[krotch]

Not gonna happen. This isn't 1999..and I'm not sure why Toyota would sell patents to Texaco, but it really doesn't matter. Electric cars are not good for long distance travel, so Gas cars remain necessary in many parts of the country/people to travel long distances for any reason

Toyota didn't sell patents to Texaco. Texaco bought NiMH battery patents from GM. Chevron then bought Texaco. Chevron then closed down the production of those batteries. Not that any of that matter, as GM who owned the patent, was trying to kill off the electric car anyways.

It wasn't until 2007, that a new kind of NiMH battery that doesn't infringe on the patents came out. Course by then, Li-ion was starting to get used/tested. Won't be until 2020 that those NiMH patents run out.

 

[nutzo]

Not gonna happen. This isn't 1999..and I'm not sure why Toyota would sell patents to Texaco, but it really doesn't matter. Electric cars are not good for long distance travel, so Gas cars remain necessary in many parts of the country/people to travel long distances for any reason


If the Bolt and Model III are are roughly 30k, they're not just for the rich. They aren't cheap, but they're in the same price range as a Fusion or Camry.

I bought my Camry Hybrid for less than 30k. Much more room and a nicer car than any of these tiny electric cars. Plus, it has a range of over 600 miles on a tank of gas, even in the city. And it only take a few minutes to fill the tank when on a long trip.

With the high electricity prices out here in California, even with the high gas prices >$2/gal, these electric cars still won't result in much savings.

Even though a 100 mile range would cover 90% of my driving, what am I supposed to do the other 10% of the time?
I know people who live in apartments or condos, and park in carports or on the street. Where are they supposed to charge an electric car?
Electric cars just don't make sense for most people.

 

[Dekoth-E-]

In the next few years, Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range.


I'm not holding my breath on this. They currently consider 200 miles long range which is laughable. I'll care about ev's when they actually are comparable in value to ic. Right now they are nothing more than novelties for rich people or hipsters who could just as easily not have a car.

 

[Riccochet]

Give me an EV truck that can tow 10,000 lbs for 600 miles before a recharge that only takes 5 minutes.

Only then will a EV interest me.

 

[Armenius]

If the Bolt and Model III are are roughly 30k, they're not just for the rich. They aren't cheap, but they're in the same price range as a Fusion or Camry.

A new Fusion can be had for around $22k, the Camry for around $23k...

 

[Dr. Righteous]

The low gas prices has NOTHING to do with electric cars. There is a 2 fold reason. First the demand world wide has dropped. 2nd OPEC has pushed up the supply to in order to shut down the oil sands business the United States, which has happened.
So much for energy independence. But big picture, this is temporary. Winds will change and prices will shoot back up.
The truth about Electric Cars is they are no more environmentally friendly than a regular car. And possibly worse for the environment. End of life for an electric vehicle means more dangerous waste (by EPA standards) than a regular car. The electrical energy is from the power grid. The largest producer of electricity in the US is still COAL. More and more AlGore mobiles on the road; more coal burned to supply the demand. More electric cars, more demand, the higher electricity will have to be because the aging grid infrastructure must be upgraded to carry the load.

 

[Trepidati0n]

The oil demand will go nowhere. Electric cars are just a vanity fab of the top wealthiest 1% of the planet. The rest of the world will continue to drive on gas.

They said the same thing about the first cars vs horses...first computers vs your fingers...first a lot of things. Everything time somebody says something like this...I just *facepalm

 

[Armenius]

The low gas prices has NOTHING to do with electric cars. There is a 2 fold reason. First the demand world wide has dropped. 2nd OPEC has pushed up the supply to in order to shut down the oil sands business the United States, which has happened.
So much for energy independence. But big picture, this is temporary. Winds will change and prices will shoot back up.
The truth about Electric Cars is they are no more environmentally friendly than a regular car. And possibly worse for the environment. End of life for an electric vehicle means more dangerous waste (by EPA standards) than a regular car. The electrical energy is from the power grid. The largest producer of electricity in the US is still COAL. More and more AlGore mobiles on the road; more coal burned to supply the demand. More electric cars, more demand, the higher electricity will have to be because the aging grid infrastructure must be upgraded to carry the load.

Not just EOL. Don't forget about the hazardous waste created during the production of the batteries used in said cars.

 

[Private_Ops]

They said the same thing about the first cars vs horses...first computers vs your fingers...first a lot of things. Everything time somebody says something like this...I just *facepalm

At 25, I honestly expect *something* to happen in my lifetime. Whether it be "peak oil" or a major shift away from fossil fuel power... or something else entirely (WWIII anyone?).

 

[Jagger100]

Did you miss the part about how it will hurt workers, which hurts the economy if it happens too quickly?

Yeah that happened and was predicted to happen to the Electronics industry and and Auto Industry. Nobody gave a shit. Thought that was inherent point that i didn't need to clarify.

The difference though, is if you miss a sale of a TV or a Car, you miss it forever. Oil is in the ground and its not going anywhere. It can be pumped later when it can actually pay for itself. Opportunity lost for manufacture vs. Opportunity deferred for shit in the gound and people couldn't give less of a fuck. Why should oil be any different?

I know why, they are bleeding cash and can buy politicians and TV/radio spokesmouths.

 

[Armenius]

At 25, I honestly expect *something* to happen in my lifetime. Whether it be "peak oil" or a major shift away from fossil fuel power... or something else entirely (WWIII anyone?).

Add the emerging fresh water shortages and we've got a Mad Max scenario.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

Honestly, I'd love to own an all electric vehicle. I only commute ~6 miles one way and rarely drive long distances. However, until they make an all-electric vehicle that I can afford, there's really no reason for me to switch from gas to electric. Even at $5.50 a gallon, it would take me 10+ years to offset the costs of an all electric vehicle. It would be smarter for me to buy a used/inexpensive gas/hybrid vehicle that gets 30 - 45MPG.

This is pretty much me. My daily commute is...down two flights of stairs.

However, I do have several long trips every year. If I could find an EV in a minivan format (need the hauling capacity, but not enough to suffer the shit mileage of a full size van), that could make the trip without needing to plug in every 200 miles, I'd seriously consider buying.

It'd be even cooler if I could also rig it up as a home UPS too. But I'd settle for sufficient mileage to start.

 

[Deleted member 184142]

The low gas prices has NOTHING to do with electric cars. There is a 2 fold reason. First the demand world wide has dropped. 2nd OPEC has pushed up the supply to in order to shut down the oil sands business the United States, which has happened.
So much for energy independence. But big picture, this is temporary. Winds will change and prices will shoot back up.
The truth about Electric Cars is they are no more environmentally friendly than a regular car. And possibly worse for the environment. End of life for an electric vehicle means more dangerous waste (by EPA standards) than a regular car. The electrical energy is from the power grid. The largest producer of electricity in the US is still COAL. More and more AlGore mobiles on the road; more coal burned to supply the demand. More electric cars, more demand, the higher electricity will have to be because the aging grid infrastructure must be upgraded to carry the load.

You also have to take into account cost, these cars are NOT that cheap, we are subsidizing them with tax money. The makers get cuts and breaks for having EV line ups, people get tax credits for buying EVs etc etc, take this away and make the buyer pay for it all and those soon coming $30k cars are a lot more money, some are also sold at or near to a loss just to meet government requirements. If it was not for the government push on these, we would have far fewer in the market because ROI with current oil prices would not be worth it, and the pollution else where is also true, people think because it has lower tail pipe or no tail pipe emissions its totally "clean", when in some cases they are in whole, worse. Do I think EV have a place? Absolutely, in time with tech these could replace most ICE based cars, and once battery life has come around, I think they will make awesome race cars.

People are also forgetting oil is used in far more than gas. Remove gas from the picture and oil is still a big part of our lives, all these motors and gearboxes etc etc still need lubrication, we still make heavy use of plastics, foams, paints etc etc, oil is not going anywhere any time soon, price might go down, but that's good as the goods made from it will also go down. When people spell doom and gloom about oil prices, they either understand nothing about economics or are being very short sighted.

 

[B00nie]

Not gonna happen. This isn't 1999..and I'm not sure why Toyota would sell patents to Texaco, but it really doesn't matter. Electric cars are not good for long distance travel, so Gas cars remain necessary in many parts of the country/people to travel long distances for any reason


If the Bolt and Model III are are roughly 30k, they're not just for the rich. They aren't cheap, but they're in the same price range as a Fusion or Camry.

I have news for you: The vast majority on this planet can't afford a 30k car.

 

[B00nie]

They said the same thing about the first cars vs horses...first computers vs your fingers...first a lot of things. Everything time somebody says something like this...I just *facepalm

Facepalm yourself as much as you like, the facts remain. The most populated countries on this planet tend to be also the poorest on average. India, China, African countries... they all drive 300k mile beaters or 3000 dollar locally built 'cars'. Some countries have taxation that pushes car prices to triple of what they should be. The poor countries have entire areas that don't even have an electric grid for petes sakes. Russia for example lol even though it's one of the most resource full country in the world. It will take generations before gas demand gets even dented.

Try to sell an electric vehicle to Siberia where it gets -55C and batteries literally freeze. At -20c your battery capacity is already half of what it should be and electric heating of the cabin eats up the rest of your amps.

 

[nilepez]

Toyota didn't sell patents to Texaco. Texaco bought NiMH battery patents from GM. Chevron then bought Texaco. Chevron then closed down the production of those batteries. Not that any of that matter, as GM who owned the patent, was trying to kill off the electric car anyways.

It wasn't until 2007, that a new kind of NiMH battery that doesn't infringe on the patents came out. Course by then, Li-ion was starting to get used/tested. Won't be until 2020 that those NiMH patents run out.

I don't follow. Toyota has made the Prius since the 90s and it's been available in the U.S. since 2000, so either the patents were licensed or there was a way around them for almost 20 years.

 

[tetris42]

You also have to take into account cost, these cars are NOT that cheap, we are subsidizing them with tax money. The makers get cuts and breaks for having EV line ups, people get tax credits for buying EVs etc etc, take this away and make the buyer pay for it all and those soon coming $30k cars are a lot more money, some are also sold at or near to a loss just to meet government requirements. If it was not for the government push on these, we would have far fewer in the market because ROI with current oil prices would not be worth it, and the pollution else where is also true, people think because it has lower tail pipe or no tail pipe emissions its totally "clean", when in some cases they are in whole, worse. Do I think EV have a place? Absolutely, in time with tech these could replace most ICE based cars, and once battery life has come around, I think they will make awesome race cars.

People are also forgetting oil is used in far more than gas. Remove gas from the picture and oil is still a big part of our lives, all these motors and gearboxes etc etc still need lubrication, we still make heavy use of plastics, foams, paints etc etc, oil is not going anywhere any time soon, price might go down, but that's good as the goods made from it will also go down. When people spell doom and gloom about oil prices, they either understand nothing about economics or are being very short sighted.

Yeah not to mention all industrial fertilizers are made with oil, plastics, etc. Transportation is the majority use of oil, but all of modern civilization is pretty much dependent on oil in one way or another. And yeah, no worries, oil prices will NOT stay low forever. There's this thing called supply and demand. We have a finite supply and a demand that won't go away in our lifetime.

 

[nilepez]

I bought my Camry Hybrid for less than 30k. Much more room and a nicer car than any of these tiny electric cars. Plus, it has a range of over 600 miles on a tank of gas, even in the city. And it only take a few minutes to fill the tank when on a long trip.

With the high electricity prices out here in California, even with the high gas prices >$2/gal, these electric cars still won't result in much savings.

Even though a 100 mile range would cover 90% of my driving, what am I supposed to do the other 10% of the time?
I know people who live in apartments or condos, and park in carports or on the street. Where are they supposed to charge an electric car?
Electric cars just don't make sense for most people.

I agree on Apartments, but I suspect that over the next 10 or 15 years, you'll get more charging stations. My grocery store has a couple of stations (which are rarely used at this point). This is a chicken and egg issue. Still, I agree that Hybrids make far more sense right now, but that could change, but ultimately, I think the range of the EV cars either has to improve or we need a significant increase in infrastructure of high speed charging stations. We'll see what happens. 10-15 years is a long time. I doubt any of us thought we'd have a Tesla 15 years ago and my recollection is that Hybrids were a joke to most people back then.