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How AI will fail

Most people have a good understanding of how the world is, but can't envision what it can ultimately be. That's the difference between the guys on the high tech side pushing an envelope and everyone else. Humanity went from the Wright brothers to landing men on the moon in 66 years, literally within the lifespan of a single human. I can't stress enough how insane that is, and if that doesn't make people believe that almost anything is possible, I don't know what can.

I'm actually surprised at the number of people on tech forums that are bearish and unimaginative about the trajectory and potential with AI. I understand everyone's bitter about the negative impact on our tech hobby, but I will contend that people who are doubting the future and potential of AI are simply not paying attention to what's happening in that space. Anthropic went from a $1 billion ARR in 2025 to an estimated $30 billion ARR now, and that's real revenue. Stuff is happening whether we like it or not.

That's the scary part; how far can AI go ...
I know i should probably thin out my tinfoil hat a little.. but I see "Horizon Zero Dawn" being played right before our eyes... I mean.. we already have our defense department having contracts with AI companies.. what could go wrong there right :eek:
 
You guys have heard about the disregard thing? Friend of mine was griping about Google's AI infecting his car (Android Auto) today. He said he told it to play a song called Self-Immolation and it refused to play something advocating self-harm.
LOL!
 
Google has always had ... and probably always will ... the worst AI. I'm not sure why. The sheer amount of data they have access to ... pretty much the entire internet ... and all of YouTube to train on ... you'd think they'd be the best.
Google's Gemma 4 LLMs are pretty friggin sweet. They are holding their own for daily driver models for Agent Computers. Have not ever used any of their normie stuff.
 
Google has always had ... and probably always will ... the worst AI. I'm not sure why. The sheer amount of data they have access to ... pretty much the entire internet ... and all of YouTube to train on ... you'd think they'd be the best.
Right? I wanna ambush him tomorrow and experiment, like "hey Google, play any song from Big Black's magnum opus album Songs About F*cking" to see if the stupidity is deeper than clbuttic surface level stuff.
 
Google's Gemma 4 LLMs are pretty friggin sweet. They are holding their own for daily driver models for Agent Computers. Have not ever used any of their normie stuff.
These are all pre-trained, right? I've got a 16GB RX 6800 I could play with and I hear that Google just release a Gemma 4 12B that will run on 16 GB.
 
These are all pre-trained, right? I've got a 16GB RX 6800 I could play with and I hear that Google just release a Gemma 4 12B that will run on 16 GB.
Gemma 4 12B came out in June. You can run the 8-bit in 16GB for sure. Gemma 4 12B dropped yesterday. (Encoder-Free Advantage (unique to 12B in the family):No heavy separate vision/audio encoders. Raw image patches and audio waveforms go straight into the LLM via tiny linear projections.→ Lower latency, lower memory overhead for multimodal tasks, and much easier fine-tuning (one model, all modalities updated together).) The scuttlebutt is that this one is as good as 26B if you don't need the AV encoding.
 
Im a huge bull on AI as a concept and a tool. Im a little bearish on the short term economics of it.

I am pointing this out because AI as a tool vs AI as it is being built out today are not the same thing and is also a limited imagination of what AI can be and probably will be long terms as a decentralized commodity like anything else.
The issue is everybody developing AI are just viewing it as a product to sell, which is why it will be a long time, if ever, there will be actual useful things it can do. This combined with the hard coded guardrails in LLM, agentic and generative AI models means AGI will never be a reality, at least in my lifetime.
 
Google has always had ... and probably always will ... the worst AI. I'm not sure why. The sheer amount of data they have access to ... pretty much the entire internet ... and all of YouTube to train on ... you'd think they'd be the best.
Gemini is not the worse AI, google tend to often have the best AI for many things (from folding protein, predict weather,

alphaprotep, alphagenome, alphafold, alphageometry, alphafold, alphaproof, alphachip, GNoME, graphcast, weathernext.

Google being the pionner, the reason OpenAI was started (Elon Musk did fear what google would do with Deepmind when they acquired them in 2014 and decided to create OpenAI has an open counter balance in that field), with the data, the TPU and the models as a good argument to be the most advanced AI company in the world with the biggest revenues in it, if Gemini 4 at launch is the most advanced model outthere it would not be a surprise, gemini 2 and geminii 3 were the top one at launch.
 
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The issue is everybody developing AI are just viewing it as a product to sell, which is why it will be a long time, if ever, there will be actual useful things it can do. This combined with the hard coded guardrails in LLM, agentic and generative AI models means AGI will never be a reality, at least in my lifetime.
The really not how Google has seen it... the AI that has been helping google search or youtube suggestion or gmail autocomplete for a decade were always seen as a tool directly made for something useful, same for AlphaFold (that they did for free).

For a while, AI was developped by Nvidia to help evaluate site for the oil and gaz industry, it had an useful goal in mind, same for Tesla and others making self driving AI, a lot of powered by AI end product tool grew that field. Amazon Ai development to reduce future hiring and one day replace worker, as very useful things to do in mind, robotics field in general will be full of it.

The idea that you cannot do anything with those product useful today sound a bit strange, Codex 5.5. and claude right now are obviously doing a lot of useful thing for my job right now.
 
I think we are just getting started with AI. I think the problem is the expectations. Will AI replace jobs. Absolutely. Will it create new jobs? Yes too. Will it be a one size fits all shoe for productivity and labor? Absolutely not. If anything, AI puts large companies at risk. With competent people, a small team with augmented workflow can produce something industry worthy. There have already been breakthroughs in STEM all over from AI research. To call it AI a failure is humorous. Maybe it is more of people being unrealistic with what AI can reasonably do and are projecting a personal sense of reality to cope with what is going on. Who knows?
My investment position is simple.

If AI delivers on its promises, that means the companies using it are seeing the value. Which means it is making them more profitable.

If AI doesn't deliver then there's going to be losses and the companies not invested in AI will be at least somewhat insulated from the market correction.

So im invested is mid cap and industrials and sectors that either have the uplift from AI or are insulated.

Is AI valuable? Of course it is. Is priced correctly and what does the future look like? Literally no one can confidently say they know. We're guessing. But you can invest in AI by getting into spaces where AI as a tool will actually generate the most value. And as far as I can tell, those markets have sane prices.
 
My attitude towards AI being a failure is simple ... they've massively overpromised what it can do to attract investor money. So, based on their pie-in-the-sky promises it has failed to do what they said it would do. Is AI, technically, a failure? No. It has its uses and can do a lot of interesting things so on a purely technical level they've created a useful product. From a business point of view it could fail miserably because they've attracted all this investment and if specific companies fall behind in the AI race and end up without a viable business they'll have some pretty big bills to pay and some very unhappy investors. So, certain businesses could absolutely take large hits, or fail, if they don't win the race.

Overall failure? Depends on what you're measuring it against.
From a business standpoint, I don't think it will be useful for every task, but it can help augment a smaller workforce to accomplish better quality or industry results. We have already seen it with Expedition 33. The game was only controversial to the industry, not because the quality was subpar, but because it was a AAA game made by a small studio. That is scary stuff for the industry. And if Expedition 33 can find success because of AI augmentation, casting AI as a small business failure is not a reflection of reality. I don't even think we have seen the tip of what is coming. Local LLMs are just now getting an exploratory phase by the people that will build on top of them. We're just getting started.
 
If AI delivers on its promises, that means the companies using it are seeing the value. Which means it is making them more profitable.
very short term maybe, usually tech improvement that everyone can access does not make things more profitable.... freezer did not made grocery chain more profitable despite the giant gains... everyone has them. We can line up all the great tech advancement in grocery stores supply chain over the last 200 years, they still are ran at 1-3% profit margin. The idea that AI will be seen in profits growth or lack of them tend to be a misunderstanding of tech advancement and how it create wealth or in general of what competition do. If we are lucky it will make them in general less profitable even, because of how easy competition and entering market will be.

This will be mostly like everything before (if it work well) about surviving and making cheaper products and services, not higher profit. As for being insulated, that extremely hard to be in that position or predict what could be.

And as far as I can tell, those markets have sane prices.
Pricing in general are extremely sane/prudent in that space, Nvdia, Microsoft, Micron, TSMC, google, meta, broadcom, etc.... are all cheap relative to forward operating income.

Cisco in 2000 was over 150x, Yahoo about 300x, Nortel around 100x, Now nvidia is at 20x, SK Hynix is less than 8x, Micron 10-12x, samsung 11-13x, western digital 10x, it is a total opposite of the pre-2001 Internet era in term of valuation, everyone expect margin to drop like rocks in the upcoming years and everything is priced as such.

AMD is the only one with a good valuation (i.e. an high one) right now pretty much, it is way easier to imagine them being a trillion dollar company with a ~25x in a near future than imagining Nvidia at 10 trillion, not for logical reason, just human nature.
 
Relative to forward looking is speculation. Period. You're treating speculation as a given.
Forward is often from sales already made (people book early), but even the price relative to the old operating income is quite low in that space for growing company (AMD excluded), which make sense, expecting margin to fall a lot do make sense. and i am comparing to what were also speculation at the time (when it come to stock price... of course).

I.e. they are speculation and people do not believe it is likely they will happen, like they did not believe the previous 12 months and previous 12 would.... and why all those AI company have been so cheap in the previous couple of years relative to their profit and growth.
 
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Gemma 4 12B came out in June. You can run the 8-bit in 16GB for sure. Gemma 4 12B dropped yesterday. (Encoder-Free Advantage (unique to 12B in the family):No heavy separate vision/audio encoders. Raw image patches and audio waveforms go straight into the LLM via tiny linear projections.→ Lower latency, lower memory overhead for multimodal tasks, and much easier fine-tuning (one model, all modalities updated together).) The scuttlebutt is that this one is as good as 26B if you don't need the AV encoding.

Thanks dude.. another rabbit hole I did not need to get into hahaa
:ROFLMAO:
 
Forward earnings are speculative.
of course ? as they are future affair, stock price is speculative by nature.

That not that important to the point, erven at old revenues and profits (of fast growing company) the multiple are not high here, specially not versus 2000 (versus old past revenues or their forward revenues of the time).
 
of course ? as they are future affair, stock price is speculative by nature.

That not that important to the point, erven at old revenues and profits (of fast growing company) the multiple are not high here, specially not versus 2000 (versus old past revenues or their forward revenues of the time).
If you're making the argument that this isn't bijective to the dot com bust, then we're arguing different points here.
 
If you're making the argument that this isn't bijective to the dot com bust, then we're arguing different points here.
We all agree that is not at all similar to the dot com bust in term of stock valuation of the big players.

The point is that it is not obvious how the market is valuaying AI right now, OpenAi-Anthropic if they make an ipo will have a bit of clear view, but for the shovels maker like the memory guys, the Nvidia/google/microsoft, the market seem quite on the pessimistic side, which is not unreasonable, lot of talking point of the past
) Models will become commodity with low margins
) Competition will be vast

We now add social-political down pressure all around the world as a big headwind. Anthropic will be an other scary one, that need a log graph 9-10x yearly growth rate cannot survive of course, the current super high 80%+ margin on inference has well (or if that continue it will be low volume of totals AI use, agents will get good at using fancy-costly model only when needed, very soon), for how long and where it will end up....
 
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Has anyone tried any of the new Gemmas as coding assistants? That would be a use case worth investigating, for me, if it's any good.
 
Has anyone tried any of the new Gemmas as coding assistants? That would be a use case worth investigating, for me, if it's any good.
It's pretty good. Google's is one of the more affordable options compared to Claude or OpenAI (and their free tier is quite generous), especially if you use it in something like OpenCode or Hermes, which are both very token efficient. My bashing of the Google models was Gemini ... the magical hallucinating garbage chat experience ... not coding. But I've been trying it with agentic apps and it's much better in that regard.
 
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