Has The PC Hit Rock Bottom?

[ccman]

I'm 47, been around Windows PCs since almost Day One. I'm pretty familiar with Sony PCs and they made some great ones. And that made some plastic crap as well. In all my years with Windows PCs I've never seen the level of interest in a single Windows PC device as the Surface Book. Not even close.

And (as you say below) Microsoft has the Surface RT. They can't all be winners.

Apple has long prided itself in delivering both the hardware and software and many times stated that by doing so it can do a better job of delivering a solid computing experience.

Wait, you've insisted in other threads that Microsoft is in no way copying Apple.

Microsoft is no stranger to hardware but as its OEMs have long be it's best customers it didn't want to compete with them. Even at this point I don't think Microsoft still really wants to. But in this day and age people by devices, at least that's where they put there money as consumers. They don't buy software, certainly not software upgrades.

The Microsoft model of selling Windows licenses directly to consumers if all but done. And that will probably be the fate it faces with OEMs as well. You cannot sell an OS to consumers anymore. For all of the hate about Windows 8.x/10 about privacy issues and tablet apps and such, that's the reality of today. Virtually no consumer pays $200 for Windows licenses, people coming up with these numbers are making them up.

That's funny because all the retailers I've visited lately have boxed copies of Windows 10 and Office 2016, something you say people don't buy and Microsoft doesn't sell. Buying a Windows license is something I'll be interested in as I diversify my knowledge from just Windows to Windows, Linux, and Mac OS X and will need virtualized Windows from time to time.

So Microsoft is trying to make some money with hardware to make up for revenue it's never going to see with Windows licenses and at the same time trying to create an iconic PC. The idea started out really rough, especially with the disaster of Windows RT and Surface RT. Now that the idea has been focused better towards a loyal and spendy PC niche, it's working much better.

Microsoft is seeing revenue from Windows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3y3QoFnqZc

(In case you don't view that YouTube clip.

 

[heatlesssun]

Sony's domestic (Japanese) laptops have always been awesome, I think most of the thick plastic ones we associate with "crap" Sony were US domestic market models. I used to visit Akihabara every year from the late 90s to the early 2000s and they had only the most stylish and innovative models in the stores like Bic Camera, Tzone and Laox (the same could be said for Fujitsu and Toshiba, I actually owned about 3 generation of librettos which were really unique at the time). Japanese computing was always expensive, in fact prior to the whole Dos/V revolution, NEC had a stranglehold on the market and you had to pay to play. Until the mid 2000s, computers were extremely expensive, premium and differentiated products with no budget / entry level products and Sony was had a similar positioning as Apple did in Japan. Steve Jobs was a huge Sony fan, and even offered Sony a chance to sell VAIOs with Mac OS. Instead, after Sony passed on it, he hired away some of their best designers which was kind of the beginning of the end. Sony US has always been a different beast.

I have the Libretto W100, order it from Japan, there's some posts of me talking about it back in 2010 around here. Very interesting device, crappy battery life but the dual screens were cool. Haven't even turned it on in years, should try Windows 10 on it some day.

I'm not saying PC OEMs haven't done cool things are good work, but they've done nothing iconic compared to what Microsoft has done in three years with the Surface line. And of course the Surface line has face many problems and challenges and is still probably a huge sink hole for Microsoft. I'm just saying no one has built anything close to as iconic for the PC as the Surface.

 

[ccman]

Meaning, they finally produced something that was worth my money to spend on. (Surface Pro, HTC One M8 for Windows Phone.) For those who do not think the Surface Pro is a good device, they have clearly not used one or taken the time to look outside their little box.

Funny, I know two people who own Windows Phones and one person that owns a Microsoft Surface Pro 3. I know many, many people with iPhones and Androids and many with Dells, HPs, Lenovos, and Macbooks.

I hardly see any Microsoft Surfaces in the wild, at places like Starbucks or in general interactions. It's hard to go without seeing iPhones or iPads (even being used as Point of Sale devices or menus in restaurants). When I see laptops, I hardly see Microsoft Surfaces. Maybe it's a north/south thing or maybe I needs to move to Redmond or Bellevue, either physically or mentally, to see the light.

 

[ccman]

I'm just saying no one has built anything close to as iconic for the PC as the Surface.

I think your iconic is different from my iconic. In my mind, the Apple iPod was iconic. The Microsoft Surface just looks like a tablet with a Smart Cover. I think it will need more history and popularity to be iconic or reach iconic status.

 

[ccman]

I'm just saying no one has built anything close to as iconic for the PC as the Surface.

Ironically, when I type iconic PC into Google images, I see Sony VAIO desktops from the late 90s.

I also see the IBM PS2 PC, Commodore 64, and the iMac G3. Stuff mentions the Microsoft Surface, but they're talking about the big table that Microsoft created, not the newer Surfaces (http://www.stuff.tv/news/25-most-iconic-computers-ever)

 

[heatlesssun]

And (as you say below) Microsoft has the Surface RT. They can't all be winners.

From Day One I voiced doubts about Windows RT and Surface RT. Never bought those devices because.

Wait, you've insisted in other threads that Microsoft is in no way copying Apple.

I've never said that. Microsoft certainly isn't copying Apple with hybrid design however. Which Apple to this day says that they'll never do. Just like a pen. Oh wait, never mind. Everyone copies everyone else where they are successful, that's just how business works.

That's funny because all the retailers I've visited lately have boxed copies of Windows 10 and Office 2016, something you say people don't buy and Microsoft doesn't sell.

Out of the 110 million copies of Windows 10 that Microsoft claimed were running last week, how many of them do you think were boxed copies?

Microsoft is seeing revenue from Windows.

I never said they weren't. But the revenue stream on the OEM and direct consumer side has been sliding for some time now according to Microsoft's own financial reports. Who here paid for a copy of Windows 10? I do have an MSDN sub through work but all of my dozen Windows 10 installs save the Enterprise version I'm running were from the free upgrade promotion.

 

[heatlesssun]

I think your iconic is different from my iconic.

I said iconic for the PC. This is now iconic for the PC:

 

[ccman]

Heatlesssun, you said Sony produced some crappy PCs. I said Microsoft produced some crappy PCs called Surface RT. That was my point, regardless of what you did or didn't say in the past.

Companies sold and people bought styluses for iPads since they came out, but if you're going to lead my down this path, we'll be talking about things before the mother of all demos pretty soon.

Generally you've lost the argument when you don't answer a point, only ask another question. It becomes even more dubious when you ask me a question about a number Microsoft released but isn't releasing the amount of detail to either answer your question or to speculate what the answer could be.

Finally, you said "to make up for revenue it's never going to see with Windows licenses" in black and white.

 

[ccman]

I said iconic for the PC. This is now iconic for the PC:

A product that has not yet been released, that no one yet owns physically, save maybe some Microsoft employees, is iconic? I provided you a website that defines examples of what is iconic for PCs. I would call the IBM PS2 PC an example of iconic for the PC. The Microsoft Surface Book may be looked back upon as iconic, but hasn't had the chance yet, as it is not released and not in many people's hands.

Now you're making me do what you did to me (albeit for a topic I already defined). See the definition of iconic from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_icon

 

[heatlesssun]

Heatlesssun, you said Sony produced some crappy PCs. I said Microsoft produced some crappy PCs called Surface RT. That was my point, regardless of what you did or didn't say in the past.

Even Surface RTs were made of magnesium and had the kickstand.

Companies sold and people bought styluses for iPads since they came out, but if you're going to lead my down this path, we'll be talking about things before the mother of all demos pretty soon.

Digital pens were used in PCs long before the iPad. To make sure that it's "revolutionary" Apple has called its digital pen a pencil.

Generally you've lost the argument when you don't answer a point, only ask another question. It becomes even more dubious when you ask me a question about a number Microsoft released but isn't releasing the amount of detail to either answer your question or to speculate what the answer could be.

Generally people ask a question before making this point. If they did and it was missed they'd repeat it. Did you actually ask a question?

Finally, you said "to make up for revenue it's never going to see with Windows licenses" in black and white.

Microsoft isn't ever going to be able to sell as many Windows licenses directly to consumers and OEMs as they did at the height of the PC era because people are buying fewer PCs and probably never will at the height of the PC era. Windows 10 being spyware or not regardless. The spyware is now on iOS and Android. Or not.

 

[heatlesssun]

A product that has not yet been released, that no one yet owns physically, save maybe some Microsoft employees, is iconic?

Think about what iconic means in this sense. And then think about what PC models are known generally by name. The Surface Book is a laptop first. That's iconic in and of itself. But attach relatively unknown feature (and there's nothing new about it) and a name like Microsoft and yes, in the PC world it's iconic.

I provided you a website that defines examples of what is iconic for PCs. I would call the IBM PS2 PC an example of iconic for the PC. The Microsoft Surface Book may be looked back upon as iconic, but hasn't had the chance yet, as it is not released and not in many people's hands.

IBM doesn't even make PCs anymore. Iconic for my generation sure. Not this one.

 

[ccman]

Heatlesssun, as you are clearly either not reading what I am writing, are not comprehending it, or are reading and comprehending it but are responding to something else entirely that originates in your imagination, I am going to disengage from this discussion.

 

[sleepeeg3]

Doesn't surprise me. It's why the PC makers are all about portables now. Outside of a select few apps (CAD3D, Games, UHD+ Film Editing), there's really no reason to upgrade. I'm still running an original i7-920 @ 3.8 (x58 mobo) and it does it all for me (GFX editing, video editing, 3d modelling, gaming). Only significant upgrade I needed in the past few years was an SSD and GFX card.

Sure, I can upgrade, but for what? To have better encoding times on videos? My workflow isn't hindered at the moment.

Now take that and compare it to what your average user would use (Browser, Office, 1080p video if that) and they haven't felt a need to update for even longer.

Ditto. Actually I'm running stock/watercooling and am/was a moderator on an overclocking forum.

Intel/AMD lost their raison d'etre.

 

[DukenukemX]

A lot of it also due to consoles. I know we are all gamers but reality is you don't need a fast computer unless you're a content creator or a gamer. Going on Facebook doesn't need a fast CPU. Sending Email or surfing the web doesn't need a fast computer. You didn't in 2000 and you don't in 2015.

And not many game developers are going to push their games when it could easily mean no XB1 or PS4 version. So you could game on an i3 with a GTX 950 just fine. And no Nvidia Gameworks or AMD TressFX Hair is going to fix this.

 

[Flogger23m]

In all my years with Windows PCs I've never seen the level of interest in a single Windows PC device as the Surface Book. Not even close.

Your memory must be fading then. Although we have yet to see how the Surface Book will do. It has not even been delivered yet, so it is hard to gauge consumer interest. But back in the day Sony was the Apple of laptops. Even if they put out some not so good products (like Apple).

Considering the only place I've heard about the Surface Book is on this forum I think we really do have to wait and see how it catches on with the mainstream. While it may be a hit in the enthusiast circles for a high quality laptop it doesn't necessarily mean it will have much of an impact on the whole. I for one would like MS to consistently provide high quality laptops across the board. Battery quality and construction are much more important in laptops compared to desktops, and right now it is hard to find a good build.

 

[Deleted member 147607]

Dukenukem...

Enjoyed your post on the first page....

I just built a steambox(using SteamOS) out of used pc parts, essentially built on an older core i5 750 platform and it will play any video game on my television without a hitch. I actually can't believe how good everything looks...I don't see any need to upgrade anytime soon.

Although...I will add I grew up in the pacman generation so graphics really aren't all that important to me. If I can make out what's going on on the screen, I'm good.

In my world...a tell tale for people and pc purchases is that in the last three years none of my friends/relatives computers that I've built over the years have asked for upgrades. I'm always asking them how things are running because I'm surprised I don't get those panicked calls anymore about viruses, malware, blue screens etc...

Everyone seems fine with their systems and they're using them in combination with their phones and/or tablets primarily. None of them are gamers...or they'll play a game on their tablet/phone first before the pc.

For myself...the best thing I've done in the last decade is move to linux. It brings me back to the early days of Windows. I love it.

Best,

Liquid Cool

 

[Hornet]

I think PC today appeals to the more specific group of users such as gamers and content creators.

Thing is, in recent times the need to upgrade, especially for gamers, has became less important. Many games today do not push it's requirement from one release to the next. I think this may be largely due to most games being crossed platform today.

 

[rudedog]

Microsoft does not sell it's hardware to only make a profit. They sell their hardware to push other OEMs into thinking outside the current/standard PC box.

With that said, Microsoft has been Microsoft's biggest barrier to success and the downfall of PC in regards to gaming. Their console division forgot that they made a gaming platform call Windows for the PC and has cannibalized the gaming industry. Microsoft is always competing with itself first.

The gaming industry has done more for pushing PC hardware then anything else, sense the early days of 3D graphics cards for gaming.

 

[heatlesssun]

Your memory must be fading then. Although we have yet to see how the Surface Book will do. It has not even been delivered yet, so it is hard to gauge consumer interest. But back in the day Sony was the Apple of laptops. Even if they put out some not so good products (like Apple).

Considering the only place I've heard about the Surface Book is on this forum I think we really do have to wait and see how it catches on with the mainstream. While it may be a hit in the enthusiast circles for a high quality laptop it doesn't necessarily mean it will have much of an impact on the whole. I for one would like MS to consistently provide high quality laptops across the board. Battery quality and construction are much more important in laptops compared to desktops, and right now it is hard to find a good build.

There's been content about the Surface Book everywhere since it launched, would have been are to miss on any tech blog or technology section of any major news site. I am realistic however, a laptop hybrid in this price range is never going to be mainstream. The #1 compliant I've seen about it thus far has been the price. But so far it does look to be a hit with enthusiasts, the non-discrete GPU versions are sold old as of now for 5 to 6 weeks and the discrete GPU versions for 7 to 8 weeks. Of course I have no idea how many Microsoft made, it was probably only in the lower to mid tens of thousands of units for a first run. For a laptop in this price range that would seem to be pretty good for something that's brand new. But being brand new and Microsoft getting into the laptop space did help the hype.

The Windows PC world needed something like the MacBook, a well known premium line that people would spend money on. Microsoft has had to spend billions on the Surface line to get this far, PC OEMs were never going to that especially in a declining PC market.

 

[Uvaman]

this sounds pretty bad assuming its accurate:

Compared to the same period last year, Intel's third-quarter sales of PC processors dropped 7 percent, but that's only because it was able to raise prices. The number of chips it shipped actually dipped 19 percent. Intel executives talked a lot about ongoing weakness in the market and said a recovery will take time

so i guess, they are not waiting for amd to die after all.

 

[heatlesssun]

Microsoft does not sell it's hardware to only make a profit. They sell their hardware to push other OEMs into thinking outside the current/standard PC box.

With that said, Microsoft has been Microsoft's biggest barrier to success and the downfall of PC in regards to gaming. Their console division forgot that they made a gaming platform call Windows for the PC and has cannibalized the gaming industry. Microsoft is always competing with itself first.

The gaming industry has done more for pushing PC hardware then anything else, sense the early days of 3D graphics cards for gaming.

It is now possible to create universal apps, that includes DX 12 games, that run on both Windows 10 devices and the Xbox One, which will become a Windows 10 device soon. I don't know how the math works but it would seem to be in Microsoft's best interest if all of their Xbox titles were also on Windows. I'd think the money they make from the PC side would more than make up for lost console sales. But that doesn't seem to be how Microsoft sees it. But the tools are now in place to make Xbox/Windows titles easier than ever.

 

[Deleted member 93354]

Seriously, what did you expect? Intel could care less. They are raking in cash any way.

Reminds me of the days when Intel had no real competition

The Pentium Pro was stuck around 200Mhz and it really didn't get better for almost two years.

With the exception of video performance, for the most part computers are stagnant in terms of performance for four+ years now. And while improvements in low power models is nice for laptops, the real power hog is displays and everyone knows this. Trimming the CPU power fat really doesn't solve the display power problem. There is ZERO incentive to buy new hardware. Swap out your video card and HDD for a SSD and call it a day and save yourself $500.

 

[erexx]

Display tech has yet to totally mature.
Desktop tech always gets smaller.
The cycles are longer.
The quality and the warranties better.
No complaints except for Price... particularly video cards.

 

[Miikun]

Seriously, what did you expect? Intel could care less. They are raking in cash any way.

Reminds me of the days when Intel had no real competition

The Pentium Pro was stuck around 200Mhz and it really didn't get better for almost two years.

With the exception of video performance, for the most part computers are stagnant in terms of performance for four+ years now. And while improvements in low power models is nice for laptops, the real power hog is displays and everyone knows this. Trimming the CPU power fat really doesn't solve the display power problem. There is ZERO incentive to buy new hardware. Swap out your video card and HDD for a SSD and call it a day and save yourself $500.

I actually think that Pentium Pro was my favorite CPU. My Tyan board over clocked to 233mhz day one, and the huge full speed cache made it competitive with slotted P3s with 32bit code, that's quite a long service life.

If Intel had taken GPUs seriously, and given us an APU early on, we might still be buying upgrades every two years just to make sure we had the best frame rates. They could have bought Nvidia when AMD bought ATI and both companies could have shoved APUs down our throats and gradually killed off discrete graphics, forcing us to upgrade with each generation. Sure glad that didn't happen though.

 

[hmz]

#3 I don't give a damn about Surface Pros. WTF is this thing? A tablet? A laptop? It's stupid as hell. Hows the hardware? Sucks shit. Hows the storage? Sucks shit. The IPS screen is great but I don't care for that. The price? Sucks shit. The kick stand? Sucks shit.

You must have been living under some rock because the Surface line is one of the best available hybrid tablets on the market now. It is an awesome device, you just have to put your hands on it to experience it.

 

[nightfly]

Holographic projectors will require more horsepower. But they will have to be affordable. Then everyone will upgrade.

 

[tikiman2012]

From what I see we have hit the limits of what the current x86/64 architecture is capable of. Somebody said earlier that a 2500K is almost as fast as a brand new Intel processor. And you can only gain so much speed by just throwing more cores at it. This is the crux. The footprint of some operating systems has gotten smaller requiring less resources to run them. Example: I have a 8 year old Pentium dual core laptop running windows 8.1 and an SSD that is just as fast as a newer i3 laptop (with the exception of graphics-it struggles with full blu-ray disc playback).

Until a new architecture comes out (quantum?) we will continue to see stagnation. There is no point in upgrading at the moment.

 

[noko]

When we buy new business computers at work they are usually I3s which uses the IGP. For the software that is normally run it is way over kill. CPU's of 10 years or older would not have a problem running Office type programs. So lower cost computers are sufficient compared to yesterday.

If you do mostly word processing/ spread sheets would you really tell the difference with anything newer from a 5 year processor? I don't think so for the most part.

There are areas still not performance saturated yet such as video editing, CAD, 3D work, animation stuff and add onto that games and gaming hardware. I can see why Intel wanted cheaper 4K monitors which actually are here now to help drive a reasonable upgrade expectation.