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Future CPU predictions

U

Ultima99

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 31, 2004
Messages
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So Haswell is here and the dust has settled with many of us not as excited as we would like to be about the cpu's performance.

For the sake of discussion I have linked 2 relevant Intel roadmap leaks and come to some conclusions.

Please feel free to link any new information and add to the discussion, keeping in mind my goal is to discuss realistic outcomes and not make a wish list thread.

http://translate.google.com/transla...roadwell-will-delay-to-2015-06042013/&act=url

http://wccftech.com/intel-roadmap-leaks-haswell-e-lituya-bay-hedt-platform/

Conclusions:

IB-E will be on the Waimea Bay platform which is X79 so it looks like there won't be a new chipset. Old motherboards should support IB-E with a BIOS update though surely there will be new X79 motherboards with features added on. This should arrive in time for the Holiday season.

Haswell-E is on the Lituya Bay X99 platform and will be DDR4 as has been speculated for some time. The release looks to be a late 2014 (Holiday season).

"Haswell Refresh" is present on both roadmaps and NOT Broadwell. This is strong evidence that the BGA only rumors for Broadwell are real. Note the Haswell Refresh is under the 22nm section on the second roadmap. There will be an updated chipset launch for the Haswell Refresh. This is expected for the Back to School season in 2014 over a year after regular Haswell.

Skylake is the first 14nm for the desktop (again no sign of Broadwell here) and looks to be moved up, possibly due to Broadwell skipping the desktop. We should get mainstream DDR4 support and of course new chipsets, probably with a new naming scheme unless they call it a Z107 which is doubtful. Based on roadmap positioning the release appears to be in the March-June 2015 timeframe.

Further speculation:

A possible pattern is emerging here.

After a long wait since SB-E we will see IB-E in late 2013 and now Haswell-E is expected in late 2014. Does this mean Intel plans yearly updates to the HEDT platform? If so we might see Skylake-E in late 2015 and only 6-9 months behind regular Skylake. Thanks to increasing the Haswell lifecycle and skipping Broadwell this would slash the lag in the Enthusiast part release considerably.

Skymont is a big unknown at this time and its tough to say anything at all. Could it be skipped like Broadwell? Will it release one year after Skylake in March-June 2016? Here be dragons indeed...

We've known the Skymont codename for years now, I believe since the Westmere days and we still have no further codenames to dream about. With the changing nature of the beast it could be until Skylake is almost upon us before we hear what's beyond the edge of the map.
 
Great insight and knowledge.

Sadly many of the ideas go beyond my comprehension and I wish I could understand it in terms of performance.

Would it be possible for you to make a graphical CPU prediction?

This would be a graph of >=2006 to 2016 in terms of Moore's Law.
It would display the currently sagging "half of a camel hump" shape.
I'd like to see how your predictions apply to the exact shape of this curve!
I wanna see the curve!

Yes, I know I am asking a lot, and I don't expect you to actually do it,
but I just wanted you to consider the type of prediction I wish I could see.

Regards,
Really
 
The near future: A few more underwhelming CPUs that don't really move things forward

Long term future: Only <2W SoC soldered onto a tiny motherboard. Passive cooling. No ability to overclock.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if desktops only get "tock" cycles from hear on out.
 
I believe you meant tick. Tock is the "big" jump (new architecture), tick is the die shrink. Not that it matters, i subscribe to the same predictions.
 
mircx said:
I believe you meant tick. Tock is the "big" jump (new architecture), tick is the die shrink. Not that it matters, i subscribe to the same predictions.
Click to expand...

No, I mean tock. Haswell is a tock, desktops got it. Broadwell will be a tick, desktops won't. Skylake tock, and coming to desktops. At least as of current rumors.
 
drescherjm said:
Again. I thought "Haswell Refresh" = Broadwell.
Click to expand...

Old road maps said Ivy Bridge and not Sandy Bridge refresh.

Also a refresh is like the Geforce 770 is a 680 where Maxwell will be a new chip. Broadwell is a tick, a die shrink and much more than a simple refresh.

Also consider the Broadwell code name was Rockwell back in the day. Something changed when the name did.
 
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