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Firm Data on AI

P

philb2

2[H]4U
Joined
May 26, 2021
Messages
3,400
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34836

Maybe a bit wonky.

We find four key facts. First, around 70% of firms actively use AI, particularly younger, more productive firms. Second, while over two thirds of top executives regularly use AI, their average use is only 1.5 hours a week, with one quarter reporting no AI use. Third, firms report little impact of AI over the last 3 years, with over 80% of firms reporting no impact on either employment or productivity. Fourth, firms predict sizable impacts over the next 3 years, forecasting AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, increase output by 0.8% and cut employment by 0.7%.
 
Not a bubble.

This contrast implies a sizable gap in expectations, with senior executives predicting reductions in employment from AI and employees predicting net job creation.
Click to expand...

Lol someone's lying (to themselves I think)
 
stashinsome said:
what do you think will realistically happen once this AI boom cools?
Click to expand...

My comment about people lying to themselves was more about how the two groups are each saying contradictory things. One of them has to be wrong. Depends on what timescale I suppose to decide which.

Will it cool down? Hard to say, I don't see when or how. Will one discovery just lead to another that leads to another that leads to another etc? And in what field(s)? Meteorology/epidemiology/chemistry/pharmaceuticals/materials science etc etc etc? It's also useful for military/espionage/warfare applications. Because of all that the powers that be are determined to get the datacenters for all this built whether on Earth or in space to get away from the Karens as much as possible if they must. The momentum is hard to stop one way or the other. Money and hype could just jump from wherever the new discoveries/movement/sector is (because of AI), playing musical chairs versus really 'cooling down'. And that could lead to (even new types/classes of) jobs.

On the other hand automations usually automate out - and employees are a big cost (biggest often actually) and liabilities to companies. End goal is to always streamline and increase profit. But we're not at everyone being out of a job overnight yet, still far away regardless of what Elon likes to say. Unless we get true AGI - which I've mentioned elsewhere I don't see happening if at all anytime soon until quantum computing is refined/mainstreamed - as I think that's needed for it - which maybe current AI/ML can help with (and is) as well.

A lot of people here want it to just collapse so they can buy cheap RAM again - with the way this is tied into and lifting the entire economy (because of all the potentials and applications for), they'll have worse problems than expensive RAM and will even forget all about that if it does 'collapse'.
 
Last edited:
kram182 said:
My comment about people lying to themselves was more about how the two groups are each saying contradictory things. One of them has to be wrong. Depends on what timescale I suppose to decide which.

Will it cool down? Hard to say, I don't see when or how. Will one discovery just lead to another that leads to another that leads to another etc? And in what field(s)? Meteorology/epidemiology/chemistry/pharmaceuticals/materials science etc etc etc? It's also useful for military/espionage/warfare applications. Because of all that the powers that be are determined to get the datacenters for all this built whether on Earth or in space to get away from the Karens as much as possible if they must. The momentum is hard to stop one way or the other. Money and hype could just jump from wherever the new discoveries/movement/sector is (because of AI), playing musical chairs versus really 'cooling down'. And that could lead to (even new types/classes of) jobs.

On the other hand automations usually automate out - and employees are a big cost (biggest often actually) and liabilities to companies. End goal is to always streamline and increase profit. But we're not at everyone being out of a job overnight yet, still far away regardless of what Elon likes to say. Unless we get true AGI - which I've mentioned elsewhere I don't see happening if at all anytime soon until quantum computing is refined/mainstreamed - as I think that's needed for it - which maybe current AI/ML can help with (and is) as well.

A lot of people here want it to just collapse so they can buy cheap RAM again - with the way this is tied into and lifting the entire economy (because of all the potentials and applications for), they'll have worse problems than expensive RAM and will even forget all about that if it does 'collapse'.
Click to expand...
This a great take. Thanks for the reply. Especially with the Internets tendency to go the route of total collapse of perfect utopia.
 
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