Elon Musk: Robots Will Take Your Jobs

[Design1stcode2nd]

While some automation is happening now and I can see more in the future there are just a lot of jobs that it would be really hard to automate or jobs that pay so little that it just doesn't make sense to automate. Even in 30 years I don't see a wholesale shift to robots and AI. You may have certain sectors that embrace this say manufacturing but there are many that do not.

 

[mesyn191]

Funny how the middle-class rejected the globalist vision last night and recently in the UK.

Neither have anything to do with globalism. And nothing you're saying here actually addresses my reply or a UBI in anyway.

People do not want a corrupt government deciding how much they have to live on.

A UBI wouldn't dictate how much you can live on. Its really looking like you don't even know what a UBI is or how it would even work.

Without the consent of the people globalists will not be able to build their robotic factories. Without the consent of the people globalists will not be able to sell their robotic produced goods.

Plenty of heavily automated factories already exist in the US and have for decades which is why factory labor dropped but output went up. We're 2nd only to China despite the "common sense" knowledge that nothing is made in the US anymore. Automation has nothing to do at all with globalism either BTW. It will exist and expand with or without it.

 

[mesyn191]

there are just a lot of jobs that it would be really hard to automate or jobs that pay so little that it just doesn't make sense to automate. Even in 30 years I don't see a wholesale shift to robots and AI. You may have certain sectors that embrace this say manufacturing but there are many that do not.

There have been several reports that say around 30-40%+ of jobs will be eliminated over the next 20yr. They've been linked to death when ever these topics come up. Here is a article that discusses and links one of them.

In the short(er) term around 6% of jobs are expected to be eliminated by 2021.

And even China is automating jobs away. When automation is getting cheap and advanced enough that even Chinese labor wages are too expensive in comparison I don't see how you can possibly just try and handwave this issue away with a "I don't see".

You don't see it happening just means you're not looking at the facts, not that it can't or won't be happening.

 

[thejokker]

How should I have worded that for you?

This is not about fear of new technology. It is about enslavement by the global elites. It is about being dis-empowering the middle and working classes. Industrialists are free to automate their factories but they cannot do so without the consent of the "people" meaning they "must" create opportunities and grow the middle-class or they will be denied power. It is a social and political imperative.

 

[mesyn191]

Industrialists are free to automate their factories but they cannot do so without the consent of the "people" meaning they "must" create opportunities and grow the middle-class or they will be denied power.

Automation inherently eliminates those opportunities. Unless you're suggesting factory owners pay people for meaningless make-work that produces nothing at all, which I'm pretty sure you're not. That is why a UBI is necessary.

Also anti-globalist politicians/policy do nothing to stop automation. Even if you implement strict capital controls to punish foreign automated factories local factories will still automate and eliminate jobs. You'd have to ban those sorts of factories or automation to stop them, which has nothing to do with globalism, and that isn't going to happen.

 

[thejokker]

Neither have anything to do with globalism. And nothing you're saying here actually addresses my reply or a UBI in anyway.


A UBI wouldn't dictate how much you can live on. Its really looking like you don't even know what a UBI is or how it would even work.


Plenty of heavily automated factories already exist in the US and have for decades which is why factory labor dropped but output went up. We're 2nd only to China despite the "common sense" knowledge that nothing is made in the US anymore. Automation has nothing to do at all with globalism either BTW. It will exist and expand with or without it.

Yes; I know about our industrial output and I know what a UBI is. I'm trying to impress upon you the negative consequences and false assumptions being presented in favor of the globalist model. A UBI is the first step to destroying the middle-class. In the beginning the elites will be generous. As time passes it will become an expense and an impediment to greater profits. They will begin to decrease the UBI at the point that the people become dependent upon it. At some point population control will become necessary in order to increase profits.

You presume that total power will not corrupt and the leaders will remain beneficent. That is a fatal flaw. The history of the world is one of domination by a small percentage over a vast majority. We can already see a degradation in the size of the middle-class in America and the UK as globalists disregard their responsibilities to the citizens of their countries in favor of corporate profits. Big government is not the answer...

Unless "we" surrender our power "the people" must dictate the course of history. Elon Musk cannot decide if robots will replace humans; we decide. Elon Musk cannot operate his business without the consent of the people. A growing and prosperous middle-class is an existential imperative industrialists like Musk must reckon with.

 

[tetris42]

Yes; I know about our industrial output and I know what a UBI is. I'm trying to impress upon you the negative consequences and false assumptions being presented in favor of the globalist model. A UBI is the first step to destroying the middle-class. In the beginning the elites will be generous. As time passes it will become an expense and an impediment to greater profits. They will begin to decrease the UBI at the point that the people become dependent upon it. At some point population control will become necessary in order to increase profits.

You presume that total power will not corrupt and the leaders will remain beneficent. That is a fatal flaw. The history of the world is one of domination by a small percentage over a vast majority. We can already see a degradation in the size of the middle-class in America and the UK as globalists disregard their responsibilities to the citizens of their countries in favor of corporate profits. Big government is not the answer...

Unless "we" surrender our power "the people" must dictate the course of history. Elon Musk cannot decide if robots will replace humans; we decide. Elon Musk cannot operate his business without the consent of the people. A growing and prosperous middle-class is an existential imperative industrialists like Musk must reckon with.

I think you have a decent argument in what you just said, but I have to ask, what's the viable ALTERNATIVE to UBI? Either way, we have a situation where there simply aren't enough jobs to go around, but people still need a roof over their heads and food on the table.

 

[mesyn191]

Yes; I know about our industrial output and I know what a UBI is.

You sure don't seem to because none of your replies make any sense WRT UBI or globalism or automation or my replies. A UBI doesn't even have anything to do with globalism either. I'm starting to think you don't know what that word means as well.

I'm trying to impress upon you

Making unfounded claims that don't make any sense in context of my replies isn't going to do that. You have to actually address what I say and then lay some foundation of facts to back it up. You'll notice that I frequently link to various sources or charts. Not always but frequently. I do that for a reason.

A UBI is the first step to destroying the middle-class. In the beginning the elites will be generous. As time passes it will become an expense and an impediment to greater profits. They will begin to decrease the UBI at the point that the people become dependent upon it. At some point population control will become necessary in order to increase profits.

This is Infowars/Breitbart-esque conspiracy mongering. One that doesn't even make any sense because in general the elites are super anti UBI. They have absolutely zero interest in giving any money away and its quite possible for them to gain more power while pulling more wealth away from the people. See any 3rd world country where most of the people are poor and live in shanty towns and ghettos if you want a practical real world example of this.

You presume that total power will not corrupt and the leaders will remain beneficent.

No. That is an assumption about me you have just made up whole cloth out of nothing. And having a UBI doesn't mean that the govt/elite have total power. Again I don't think you have the slightest clue what a UBI is or how it works. You realize its just a tax on corps/rich people that is then redistributed among the population in a progressive sliding scale right? How is that "total power"? Especially when the govt./elites already control the military/MIC which has nukes and everything? You're not making any sense at all.

The history of the world is one of domination by a small percentage over a vast majority. We can already see a degradation in the size of the middle-class in America and the UK as globalists disregard their responsibilities to the citizens of their countries in favor of corporate profits. Big government is not the answer...

You ever hear something along the lines about past performance being no indicator of future events? Its usually meant WRT to stocks but it applies to govt. and history too. Also the middle class world wide has been feeling the pinch for decades in the US, starting in the late 70's/early 80's, that also has nothing to do with globalism. And a UBI has nothing to do with ~~~Big Government~~~ either. Taxation isn't a new thing and neither is taxing corps or the rich. Nor is redistributive/progressive tax policy either. You'd only be increasing the amount they get taxed is all. You appear to not actually know what the boogey man of "Big Government" is supposed to be even.

Its an old Reagan-era canard about excessive rules making. You're supposed to be using the Welfare Queen dog whistle to try and discredit progressive taxation and social safety nets remember?

Elon Musk cannot decide if robots will replace humans; we decide.

Musk is just the messenger here. Playing the shoot the messenger won't fix anything.

 

[thejokker]

Automation inherently eliminates those opportunities. Unless you're suggesting factory owners pay people for meaningless make-work that produces nothing at all, which I'm pretty sure you're not. That is why a UBI is necessary.

Also anti-globalist politicians/policy do nothing to stop automation. Even if you implement strict capital controls to punish foreign automated factories local factories will still automate and eliminate jobs. You'd have to ban those sorts of factories or automation to stop them, which has nothing to do with globalism, and that isn't going to happen.

Otto Bismarck once referred to protectionist economic policies as the "American model". It appears we may see a return to those policies. Maintaining the robots is not a meaningless job. Sales and service are not meaningless jobs. What you absolutely cannot trust is big government and big corporations to implement a system of UBI that is not corrupt and does not favor some in favor of others. Why abandon the traditional American model (decentralized system of open competition) that has produced the largest, most prosperous, middle-class in all of history in favor a quasi-Marxist system? Why do you have such faith in corrupt politicians?

 

[thejokker]

You sure don't seem to because none of your replies make any sense WRT UBI or globalism or automation or my replies. A UBI doesn't even have anything to do with globalism either. I'm starting to think you don't know what that word means as well.


Making unfounded claims that don't make any sense in context of my replies isn't going to do that. You have to actually address what I say and then lay some foundation of facts to back it up. You'll notice that I frequently link to various sources or charts. Not always but frequently. I do that for a reason.


This is Infowars/Breitbart-esque conspiracy mongering. One that doesn't even make any sense because in general the elites are super anti UBI. They have absolutely zero interest in giving any money away and its quite possible for them to gain more power while pulling more wealth away from the people. See any 3rd world country where most of the people are poor and live in shanty towns and ghettos if you want a practical real world example of this.


No. That is an assumption about me you have just made up whole cloth out of nothing. And having a UBI doesn't mean that the govt/elite have total power. Again I don't think you have the slightest clue what a UBI is or how it works. You realize its just a tax on corps/rich people that is then redistributed among the population in a progressive sliding scale right? How is that "total power"? Especially when the govt./elites already control the military/MIC which has nukes and everything? You're not making any sense at all.


You ever hear something along the lines about past performance being no indicator of future events? Its usually meant WRT to stocks but it applies to govt. and history too. Also the middle class world wide has been feeling the pinch for decades in the US, starting in the late 70's/early 80's, that also has nothing to do with globalism. And a UBI has nothing to do with ~~~Big Government~~~ either. Taxation isn't a new thing and neither is taxing corps or the rich. Nor is redistributive/progressive tax policy either. You'd only be increasing the amount they get taxed is all. You appear to not actually know what the boogey man of "Big Government" is supposed to be even.

Its an old Reagan-era canard about excessive rules making. You're supposed to be using the Welfare Queen dog whistle to try and discredit progressive taxation and social safety nets remember?


Musk is just the messenger here. Playing the shoot the messenger won't fix anything.

Sorry but who is advocating UBI? Globalists... Who is going to be managing and implementing a UBI system? Globalists and their "bought and paid" for politicians. How will you be able to guarantee a UBI system will not be characterized by massive corruption? You cannot...

A UBI is not a rainbow and unicorn solution for a new utopia. You are radically underestimating/ignoring the negative consequences of a UBI as well as the massive resistance by the majority. You have only considered one side of the issue; the other side of the issue spells politically unviable.

 

[mesyn191]

Otto Bismarck once referred to protectionist economic policies as the "American model".

What he said well over half a century ago has nothing to do with current events or any likely future ones.

It appears we may see a return to those policies.

Except there is no indication we actually will. All we have are some vague promises by Trump to impose tariffs on companies if they outsource factories. Which still has nothing to do with automation and globalism as you seem to think it does.

Maintaining the robots is not a meaningless job. Sales and service are not meaningless jobs.

There won't be enough of those jobs to go around + they don't pay enough.

A single maintenance team will keep hundreds or thousands of robots working which in turn will be able to replace hundreds or thousands of jobs. Potentially, if they're designed right and in a unitized fashion, they'll use robots to at least partially automate the robot maintenance which means a single maintenance team could easily end up services thousands or tens of thousands of robots. With that many jobs eliminated who will the sales guy have to sell to but the rich and few remaining workers who have money? And what service jobs will you be able to get and how much will they pay when there is now a huge unemployable underclass of desperate people who will take anything at all to survive?

You are completely failing to understand the scale of permanent unemployment and what effect that will have on society and the economy here in such a situation. Think of something like 30-40%+ permanent unemployment. That is much worse than what we had in the US during the Great Depression! Society and economy as you know it is going to cease to function under such circumstances. The closest real world examples we have are 3rd world countries with huge favelas which is why I keep bringing them up.

What you absolutely cannot trust is big government and big corporations to implement a system of UBI that is not corrupt and does not favor some in favor of others.

If you can trust them to run the military and with the nukes you can trust them with a UBI. Also the corps wouldn't have a say in the implementation of a UBI. They don't want a UBI. They'll fight it tooth and nail. Globalism has nothing to do with a UBI! That is your unfounded claim!!

Why abandon the traditional American model (decentralized system of open competition) that has produced the largest, most prosperous, middle-class in all of history in favor a quasi-Marxist system? Why do you have such faith in corrupt politicians?

Neither the economy nor govt. has functioned in such a manner as what you're describing since at least pre-WWII era. We even had a full blown command economy during WWII!! If you want to assume all politicians are unworkably corrupt then all talk of any govt. at all is pointless. You're essentially a anarchist and don't really know it.

 

[Spidey329]

Actually basic income could be a lot more than the average wage now if all jobs were automated that are possible to be automated. And for profit would be replaced with best sustainability and efficiency.

For profit going away? Not in our society. We'll fly that plane into the ground before we give that up.

I'm sure at some point there might be a realization that there's less customers around. And that lies the lick.

I think at first the robots will start taking jobs from the Chinese/Mexico/Asia factories we outsource to. So they'll see it hit them first. That is assuming we don't give them that economy as well, which would be just stupid penny-pincher greed at that point.

Then they'll move inwards for the lower wage jobs, like fast food and such. The real question, can we create enough new human jobs to offset the lost ones? Likely regulation would follow, something that states you must have X human employees for every X robot employee. Naturally, those would become min. wage jobs. The wage gap would increase, middle class would shrink, and public unrest would happen. Thus, the ED209's will come. But they'll soon realize they need a more personable robot to interact and they'll take a recently deceased Detroit cop, a robot body, and create ... RoboOfficer!

 

[mesyn191]

Sorry but who is advocating UBI? Globalists...

LOL nope. You have one guy among the 'elite', Musk, who is saying its going to be necessary at some point. The only other people who advocate for a UBI are Leftists and there are very few of them in the US and virtually none of them are rich Globalists.

Who is going to be managing and implementing a UBI system? Globalists and their "bought and paid" for politicians.

A UBI would have nothing to do with being managed by a private entity or person. It'd all be done by the govt. through the IRS. Globalists wouldn't even factor into it by default dude. You gotta quit with the conspiracy crap.

How will you be able to guarantee a UBI system will not be characterized by massive corruption? You cannot...

You make the rates for taxation and distribution public and have them adjusted on a yearly basis the same way current taxes are. Its not hard. If you want to argue that taxation and distribution can't be done without massive corruption ever then congrats on being a Anarchist. Virtually no one wants anything to do with that system of govt. though.

A UBI is not a rainbow and unicorn solution for a new utopia.

When did I say it was? Its a social safety net, one which will become necessary by default with increased and better automation. A fact you haven't, effectively, disputed yet. You just keep making increasingly wild claims with nothing to back them up.

You are radically underestimating/ignoring the negative consequences of a UBI as well as the massive resistance by the majority. You have only considered one side of the issue; the other side of the issue spells politically unviable.

Claims with no proof are easily dismissed. Hell you're not even giving any sort of logical reason either. You're just making wild claims and venturing off into conspiracy land every chance you get.

 

[TwistedAegis]

UBI doesn't mean you don't have to work. If anything, it's better than welfare in that you don't have to worry as much that starting your own business, etc, means you're going to lose all your income. You have a safety net, a floor, that doesn't allow you to fall too far allowing people to be entrepreneurs and innovate more easily.

And the U in UBI is universal - that's where you get rid of the corruption part. No need to have thousands of specialized bureaucrats deciding who does/does not get it.

I feel the same way about taxes. Simplify and standardize, strip down all the thousands of pages of rules that just benefit those with billions and the lawyers to figure it out.

 

[ruffbytes]

I hope that robots will end up doing jobs that are mundane and don't take much intelligence - leaving room for humanity to advance itself even further with all the extra people not working on jobs like cleaning shit up and making hamburgers.

It will be interesting to see if we are able to make robots smart enough to do these jobs in our lifetimes.

 

[IcePickFreak]

Automation inherently eliminates those opportunities. Unless you're suggesting factory owners pay people for meaningless make-work that produces nothing at all, which I'm pretty sure you're not. That is why a UBI is necessary.

They already do, it's called Sales & Marketing and Upper Management.

I don't think machines will ever replace people at browsing the web with a few baseless promises to customers tossed in every now and then.

 

[rezerekted]

no... watching communism fail time after time after time over the last 60 years. Name a successful communist country that has not re-embraced capitalism...

Name one country that has practiced real communism. They are all dictatorships. Corruption is the problem and not communism itself.

 

[rgMekanic]

 

[mesyn191]

They already do, it's called Sales & Marketing and Upper Management.

Not everyone can be Upper Management, that position is inherently a handful of people, or Sales when there is hardly anyone to sell to because a huge portion of the population won't have any money.

Seriously guys the consumer economy will stop working almost entirely with permanent 30-40% unemployment.

 

[arthur_tuxedo]

And because it is a communist idea you automatically assume it is wrong? Your government sure did a good job brainwashing you.

It was a joke. Milton Friedman is the father of modern conservative economics, and is generally regarded as a messiah by right-wingers, second only to Ronald Reagan. The point was to challenge thejokker's incorrect assumption that UBI is an idea that originated from the left.