Depreciation: Looming Roadblock for Electric Cars

CommanderFrank

CommanderFrank

Cat Can't Scratch It
Joined
May 9, 2000
Messages
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Down the road, so to speak, the major concern for the future of the electric car is not the range of travel, but how much is this cutting edge technology going to be worth after five years of ownership. The concern over battery replacement, a shift in technology and unknown factors are a growing concern.



Depreciation represents a relatively mundane factor when buyers consider conventional gas cars — buyers can consult guides like Kelly Blue Book and others for a sense of how the value of a given car in previous model years has held up over time. But depreciation involves a host of unknowns for electric models.
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i don't understand why cars are not built like pc. easy drag and drop replacement with better quality parts. if new battery tech comes out it would be nice if it was hot swappable. is your car a plug and play o/s? =)
 
If a "super electric" car is produced in the next five years that obsoletes all previous electric cars, how does it not obsolete gas powered cars as well?
 
jroe52 said:
i don't understand why cars are not built like pc. easy drag and drop replacement with better quality parts. if new battery tech comes out it would be nice if it was hot swappable. is your car a plug and play o/s? =)
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Simple, OEM's rarely make money on upgrade parts after they sell the original product, it is 3rd party sellers that make the money on "after market" performance parts.
 
The big part of that depreciation is the batteries,replacing them is a big hit in the wallet.
 
I want a Nissan Leaf. I *love* my Crossfire, but I'd trade it in a heart beat. Too bad I'm a few years from that payoff. By the time the Leaf is ready to die, I'm sure batteries will be slightly cheaper. Their prices have started dropping, somewhat reliably.

Now swapping electrics into my Crossfire would be completely bad ass. The only thing missing from the gasoline verion is low end torque... if I want to whip the back end out, I have to keep the engine between three and five thousand RPM :-X
 
These are some of the practical reasons that gasoline was able to beat out electric 100 years ago and hold its own.

If we want to make the world cleaner....lets not try to make 100 Million cars that pollute marginally less (total pollution, not just tail pipe)...lets find ways to get people out of the cars.
 
I'm beginning to think the only way we'll get off gasoline is if oil prices went so high and/or oil reserves became completely depleted that there will be no gasoline to run them. Then we'll just be screwed and everybody will wish we hadn't just nickle and dimed ourselves in the development of electric and/or hydrogen fuel infrastructure.

Of course if politicians keep lowering taxes more and more to get votes, while wasting money on other stupid shit, we might not even wind up maintaining the infrastructure we have-- much less expanding upon it to include new technologies.
 
UrielDagda said:
I'm beginning to think the only way we'll get off gasoline is if oil prices went so high and/or oil reserves became completely depleted that there will be no gasoline to run them. Then we'll just be screwed and everybody will wish we hadn't just nickle and dimed ourselves in the development of electric and/or hydrogen fuel infrastructure.

Of course if politicians keep lowering taxes more and more to get votes, while wasting money on other stupid shit, we might not even wind up maintaining the infrastructure we have-- much less expanding upon it to include new technologies.
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there is synthetic gasoline so...
 
Wumpus said:
If a "super electric" car is produced in the next five years that obsoletes all previous electric cars, how does it not obsolete gas powered cars as well?
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That's true. Any older vehicle is pretty much obsolete after a certain amount of time, no matter what the tech being discussed is.....but it just seems to grow in price consistently as time goes by.
 
the funny thing i found out about electric cars (and hybrids) is they are horrible for the enviroment. the way the batteries are made takes alot of travel of other vehicals and the manufacturing process involves alot of hazmat waste. I think hydrogen is the way to go. They are relativley simple to make, cheap to run (eventually) and hydrogen isnt exactly running out anytime soon...


Huge plus is hydrogen has no real "exhaust"
 
Is this a joke? Everyone should know that a car is the worst investment you can make in your life. As soon as you drive off the lot, the value of a brand new car drops about $10K electric or not.
 
I tend to drive a car until it is time to send it to the junkyard so depreciation doesn't mean much to me - at least in the traditional sense. Instead, I'm worried about obsolescence:

If electric car batteries are model specific, then replacing the battery could end up being a very expensive or unavailable option after a decade. Who would want to keep (or buy) a decade old car that requires a multi-thousand dollar battery replacement? Or worse: I can't replace the battery because the manufacturer doesn't make them anymore.

I generally don't have to worry about that with gasoline engines.
 
slayer9019 said:
the funny thing i found out about electric cars (and hybrids) is they are horrible for the enviroment. the way the batteries are made takes alot of travel of other vehicals and the manufacturing process involves alot of hazmat waste. I think hydrogen is the way to go. They are relativley simple to make, cheap to run (eventually) and hydrogen isnt exactly running out anytime soon...


Huge plus is hydrogen has no real "exhaust"
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Sigh. People that are "for" hydrogen just don't understand how inherently difficult and neigh impossible it will be to sustain a hydrogen economy. I'm not getting into it, but I pose the question, how exactly do you want to make all of this "affordable", clean hydrogen?

Give batteries a chance. A simple double in capacity will make gasoline engines obsolete. 10 years, mark my words. Labs have already done it, now comes the reliability, sustainability, and trickle down nature of the research.
 
cooter said:
Here is a better alternative available now and more efficient than gas (i think about 30% more, and less maintenance, plus great resale value):

DIESEL....
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It's not 30% more, for certain (Carnot). In its current form, such as in Europe, they wouldn't meet our more strict emissions standards. Diesel is nice though, but I'm for some HCCI.
 
I looked at a 2006 escape hybrid AWD that was listed for 4 or 5 thousand under book. I decided against it due to battery life and cost.

If the manufacturers want to get serious, battery replacement needs to be under 3 hours labor and less than a thousand dollars if hybrids want to keep a value.
 
Kelby said:
Is this a joke? Everyone should know that a car is the worst investment you can make in your life. As soon as you drive off the lot, the value of a brand new car drops about $10K electric or not.
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Depends on the car.
$18K in 1961 for a Ferrari 250 GTO and then sold in 2008 for $28.5 Million.
a 63 250 GTO sold for $17 Million 2 months ago.
 
Achron said:
It's not 30% more, for certain (Carnot). In its current form, such as in Europe, they wouldn't meet our more strict emissions standards. Diesel is nice though, but I'm for some HCCI.
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Partially correct, Here is one example where i am correct. However there are others where you are correct. I think the mercedes ML350 is more like a 15% difference.

Sorry, i just like diesel because they are simple to work on, the infrastucture is in place already, and they sound awesome with the muffler off, turbos FTW.

Off fuel economy.gov:

2004:
Jetta TDI: 36 mpg (combined)
Jetta (smallest engine, most efficient gas): 24 mpg (combined)
Difference: 33% or so

I can also run Biodiesel in the car without any changes to it. And Like is mentioned on the forums everyone once in a while, if we run out of crude, i'll mod it and run veggy oil through it.
 
Kelby said:
Is this a joke? Everyone should know that a car is the worst investment you can make in your life. As soon as you drive off the lot, the value of a brand new car drops about $10K electric or not.
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Cars wear out, I understand where you are coming from but along the same reasoning you are expecting the 5 year buyer to take on twice the cost. And the 5 year seller to take a loss over a battery that is going to cost one third of the retail value. This replacement will need to happen every ten or so years with this vehicle.

The escape hybrid I was offered last year for 7,800 has a fair private party bluebook of 14700. The cost of a battery replacement is in the neighborhood of 7000. Fords warranty is 8 years and 100,000 miles. The problem is that these vehicles have an automatic shelf life. I can still buy the replaceable parts for practically every car in the world. Also, practically every other car in the world, if stored properly, will be preserved in full working status for decades.

I am waiting for ultracapacitors to be the rule before I make some huge jump.
 
I really envy these people who have so much money at their disposal that they can simply trade-in and buy a new car every 5 years or so. I dunno, I've been one to drive it until the wheels fall off (or it gets damaged beyond all repair).
 
Zepher said:
Depends on the car.
$18K in 1961 for a Ferrari 250 GTO and then sold in 2008 for $28.5 Million.
a 63 250 GTO sold for $17 Million 2 months ago.
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those aren't your run of the mill cars and $18k in '61 was still way more that the average person could afford at the time.

you cant really compare a grocery getter with a Ferrari.
 
Wumpus said:
If a "super electric" car is produced in the next five years that obsoletes all previous electric cars, how does it not obsolete gas powered cars as well?
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Exactly what I was thinking. Once recharging issues are resolved via widespread power station infrastructure and people have started buying electric cars, they will realize all the other benefits of owning one, which translate to longevity and resale as well. Things like:
  • Simple maintenance. e.g. lower odds of fucking up and not topping up oil or coolant.
  • Fewer parts to wear out and replace late life. e.g. belts, tubes, plugs, et cetera
  • Fewer parts to abuse invisibly, so no worries about what the previous owner did. e.g. no gears to grind

Although true the battery houses most of the vehicle's worth and needs to be replaced from time to time, I'm sure the new buyer is well informed by now that it requires an expensive battery in place of what they would normally spend on gas. Do you expect your previous owner to supply all the gas needed for the next 3 years too?
 
The car industry needs to standardize on battery technology, but you know that's not going to happen.
 
dawp said:
those aren't your run of the mill cars and $18k in '61 was still way more that the average person could afford at the time.

you cant really compare a grocery getter with a Ferrari.
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Ok, 69 Trans Am Convertible, $6K new, worth $1.5 Million in 2008.
73 Trans Am Super Duty, $6K new, $145K in 2008.

Those were normal cars you could order at the dealer.
But ya, 99% of cars won't appreciate, so you are just tossing money away.
 
I would never buy a Hybrid or Electric car in this rapidly shifting age of technology in this area.

If I really wanted one, I would lease it.

If I really was buying, it would be Diesel Power.
 
Replacement Lamps for DLP TV's used to cost $400. Now they are under $100 every day.

I do think there is a little greed going on in the Battery industry, so that will need to work itself out as well.

michael.pa2 said:
The big part of that depreciation is the batteries,replacing them is a big hit in the wallet.
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Unless it's a muscle car from the mid 60's to early 70's. If only I knew then what I knew now...

Kelby said:
Is this a joke? Everyone should know that a car is the worst investment you can make in your life. As soon as you drive off the lot, the value of a brand new car drops about $10K electric or not.
Click to expand...
 
I'm right there with ya on that...

cooter said:
Here is a better alternative available now and more efficient than gas (i think about 30% more, and less maintenance, plus great resale value):

DIESEL....
Click to expand...
 
All of the current diesels from the US and Germany do indeed meet and exceed today's emissions regulations.

And the economy is not something that should be cast aside. In the early 90's, I had a GMC 3/4 ton heavy duty pickup with a 6.5L TurboDiesel, and it would hit over 30mpg on highway runs, and close to 18 normal daily driving. And there was nothing it couldn't do for me.

Achron said:
It's not 30% more, for certain (Carnot). In its current form, such as in Europe, they wouldn't meet our more strict emissions standards. Diesel is nice though, but I'm for some HCCI.
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Heh. Only 7 of those T/A's ever built. In the late 70's, I used to know where one of them was (owned by a gas station worker at a Sunoco we used to stop at to top off with 97 octane on the way to the drag strip).

I had thought about stopping to see if it was for sale. I probably should have...

Zepher said:
Ok, 69 Trans Am Convertible, $6K new, worth $1.5 Million in 2008.
73 Trans Am Super Duty, $6K new, $145K in 2008.

Those were normal cars you could order at the dealer.
But ya, 99% of cars won't appreciate, so you are just tossing money away.
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To ignore TCO is foolish. But thats the basis for our economy. I'll keep driving my IC vehicles until the wheels fall off and let the early adopters pay (and pay) for the 'privilege' of 'me first'.

LOOK! BRIGHT! SHINY! PLASTIC!!

Hey! Here's how to get electrics on the road: stick an Apple logo on the hood!!
 
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