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Vendors are already planning 3nm transistors ahead of 10nm/7nm, but their practicality is being debated due to astronomical costs, new design challenges, and the lack of power/performance benefits. Semiconductor Engineering explains that developing a complex chip could cost as much as $1.5B, yet neither major improvements in functionality or acceptable increases in transistor costs are guaranteed.
Plus, the manufacturing costs are enormous. “3nm will cost $4 billion to $5 billion in process development, and the fab cost for 40,000 wafers per month will be $15 billion to $20 billion,” IBS’ Jones said. Then, even with new transistor structures, the benefits of scaling are shrinking while costs are rising. “Before 14nm, there was a 30% improvement in price/performance at each node.”
Plus, the manufacturing costs are enormous. “3nm will cost $4 billion to $5 billion in process development, and the fab cost for 40,000 wafers per month will be $15 billion to $20 billion,” IBS’ Jones said. Then, even with new transistor structures, the benefits of scaling are shrinking while costs are rising. “Before 14nm, there was a 30% improvement in price/performance at each node.”