AMD Stock? Ryzen appears to be a winner

Archaea

Archaea

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So I'm curious. Ryzen seems to be a winner by leaked benchies. Do you think AMD stock is already priced to reflect the Ryzen successful product launch?

I was starting to think it was a little over priced at $14 and put a 15% trailing stop limit on my shares. However, Ryzen seems to be a success by all the benchmarks I've seen out there. < half the price of Intel, same speed.

Is that enough? I expect, without a doubt, Intel can just SMASH AMD on their next release if they choose to (I suspect Intel has about 3 years worth of products held back at this point just waiting till they feel the need to jump forward). But AMD might get a little bump as enthusiasts move over to that Ryzen platform just for a change of pace (and frustration with Intel for holding back tech for years). I just don't know if it'll be enough to really move their financials. (probably not)

I personally won't be moving to Ryzen because I have a I7-4770k CPU overclocked to 4.5Ghz, and primarily game on my rig and so have ZERO reason to need a CPU upgrade at this time. Realistically most gaming enthusiasts fall somewhere in this same situation as any CPU since Sandy Bridge is still holding its own for gaming. So this is a strange situation -- in that the enthusiasts among us don't really need a CPU upgrade right now, neither from Intel nor AMD --- so while Ryzen is an OBVIOUS choice for the next six months for a brand new machine --- I don't think that's enough to really get a true bump long term --- the window of their success will be too small.

Six to eight months from now Intel will crush AMD by dusting off something they've held on the shelf simply waiting to release. AMD will not hold the crown for long IMO. Six months from now it'll be back to business as normal with Intel clearly on top.

Anyway - curious if we should buy more AMD now in anticipate of making a few bucks a share in this short term --- say six month horizon --- and then sell at say a target of $18 or $20 per share before Intel lets the other shoe drop.
 
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Wait... you thought $14 was overpriced, now simply because they didn't completely face plant you expect it to go up to $20 and want to buy more?

Have you considered the $14 is based on hyped benchmarks and real reviews could bring the price DOWN?
 
20 looks to be a good target price. But as you stated depends on Coffee Lake, if Coffee Lake doesn't improve on Kaby and Intel doesn't go into a price war, expect AMD to go up to 25 by next quarter though. If Intel does well with Coffee Lake, and or goes into a price war with AMD 20 is a good price point.

The other shoe will be Vega at least in the short term (3 years). But Vega will only help the price not drop the price since right now in the graphics market AMD is still at a low.
 
BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

And then it'll be GREAT when we all find out that under that IHS with the "Ryzen" emblem is some sort of snapdragon or intel chip. ;)

I'm waiting on reviews...
 
BUY, BUY, BUY!!!
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I should have purchased a few thousand shares when it was under $2 a share. Right now I would not touch it. I am not comfortable with chasing a stock when it is going up like it is.
 
Ocellaris said:
Wait... you thought $14 was overpriced, now simply because they didn't completely face plant you expect it to go up to $20 and want to buy more?

Have you considered the $14 is based on hyped benchmarks and real reviews could bring the price DOWN?
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$14 was overpriced because I expected AMD's CPU to come in a dollar short and a day late - as did most of us. It didn't. It's actually the fastest CPU at this very moment. I just read that it is starting to claim some world record benchmarks at 5.2Ghz with liquid nitrogen cooling. I didn't expect that. So yeah basically, the hype train actually pulled into station and is real! Finally.

I think the fact Ryzen didn't faceplant will let the stock nudge up a few more bucks over the next few months. Of course --- like I mentioned in my first post - this is all very temporary. Intel will let them have it. So we are looking at a couple month investing horizon. Just trying to determine if I want to drop about $3k that's loose right now into AMD today and do a little short term gamble.


I didn't buy in at $2 a share because I was already purchased in at $8 a share. ha. I put my initial investment in right at the release of the Xbox One and PS4 announcements that they were using AMD. I've been riding it out for a long time now. I told a bunch of my co-workers this summer to buy in at $2 to enjoy some profits as AMD introduced the RX480. That and Freesync have moved AMD into a better position in the graphics sector. If these leaked benchies were a flop then I'd expect it to drop back down which is why I put in my 15% trailing stop order. But with the leaked benchies being strong ---- well I think it'll go up from here. As to how much and whether it's worthwhile? that's why I made this thread -- to bounce my opinion off some other enthusiasts.
 
Archaea said:
$14 was overpriced because I expected AMD's CPU to come in a dollar short and a day late - as did most of us. It didn't. It's actually the fastest CPU at this very moment. I just read that it is starting to claim some world record benchmarks at 5.2Ghz with liquid nitrogen cooling. I didn't expect that. So yeah basically, the hype train actually pulled into station and is real! Finally.

I think the fact Ryzen didn't faceplant will let the stock nudge up a few more bucks over the next few months. Of course --- like I mentioned in my first post - this is all very temporary. Intel will let them have it. So we are looking at a couple month investing horizon. Just trying to determine if I want to drop about $3k that's loose right now into AMD today and do a little short term gamble.
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Nope. Maybe you did, but analysts/investors/funds certainly didn't.
 
-Strelok- said:
Nope. Maybe you did, but analysts/investors/funds certainly didn't.
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so you are saying the $14 range the stock is in now is from full anticipation of Ryzen being successful and as capable as it apparnetly is, and you don't think there is upward movement potential from here based on the chips actual performance relative to Intel.

In effect you are saying don't invest more? not worth the risk?


My experience in trading Intel, AMD, Nvidia, and ATYT was years ago --- 2003-2008 time frame when I traded regularly (and had great profits) --- but at that timeframe you could really make a good profit off the leaked benchmarks generation to generation. Maybe that's all changed? There hasn't been the performance leaps in chips there used to be in the last decade or so. And without the big performance jumps, the big stock volatility for these companies has been absent during the last decade.
 
Archaea said:
so you are saying the $14 range it's in now is in full anticipation of Ryzen being what it acutally is and you don't think there is up potential from here based on the chips actual performance relative to Intel. In effect you are saying don't invest more.
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Not exactly. I'm saying the $14 price was justified based on expectations. I wouldn't really base my trades on other people's opinions, especially not an online forum.
 
-Strelok- said:
Not exactly. I'm saying the $14 price was justified based on expectations. I wouldn't really base my trades on other people's opinions, especially not an online forum.
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sure I agree fully in the bolded above --- but you also don't invest in AMD based on fundamentals. ha. They are in massive debt and fundamentals look piss poor year after year. you buy a tech stock like AMD to ride the short waves, you can't count on a long term hold with such a company. I'd rather get my feel on something like this based on the tech community rather than the investing community. It's served me better in the past. (admittedly a decade ago or so).

http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=AMD&region=usa&culture=en-US
 
And do not forget that the product where AMD can get more market share and also with greater margins is with Naples.
 
Yeah I closed my position already as I felt mixed on the actual execution at launch. However, things do look positive, so by all means, ride it out.
 
The hype and launch has been priced in already. Latest it will run is gonna be 15. Next big chance for a rise is gonna be quarterly financials that include Ryzen sales.
 
Big loss potential will involve Nvidia and Vega. AMD is operating at a disadvantage here and unlike Intel, who kinda hit a wall of performance that allowed AMD a chance to catch up, gpus have plenty of future performance increases.

AMD has a lot to think about concerning the gpu side. Despite Polaris holding itself together midrange, in my opinion merely remaining midrange is a slow death sentence. Nvidia has the Titan XP the question is, does Vega reach that level of performance? Can Vega go beyond the current performance of Pascal? Does Nvidia have higher performing parts ready? A 2nd run of improved Pascal or a rumored Volta would slaughter Vega based on performance.

So AMD has to fight price and performance. But Nvidia won't be shy to preempt or follow suit.

1080ti and Vega next week in my opinion is gonna start a sell off of stock. Unless AMD wows and Nvidia fucks up, I'm predicting a fall to 13 or 12 once investors realize AMD is still fighting really long hill battles.
 
Monkey God said:
No options for "ill wait for the proof first?"
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Well I think the proof is already out there. The chips are in hands now. World records already been beat just today for Cinemark with an AMD at 5.2Ghz. I think AMD has a proven "temporary" winner out there. What makes you think otherwise?
 
Just like to point out I bought a bunch of AMD stock last year for $2 a share. Feeling pretty good about that investment.
 
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Stock short ratio increased rather significantly over the last month or so. With Ryzen doing well we can expect some short covering which will add even more fuel to a price pop. Already up over 100% on the options I bought during the dip below $10 a few weeks back. A pop to $20 would be sweet indeed.
 
I bought a couple grand in shares back when it was 4 dollars in april last year. Wish I would've bought more i'd be rich.
 
What do you guys think they will sell in Ryzen by the end of March? I think they could do 2-2.2 mil at 30% plus marigin.
 
Decko87 said:
I bought a couple grand in shares back when it was 4 dollars in april last year. Wish I would've bought more i'd be rich.
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Yeah, same here. I put in around $6k, which turned into $24k, which is an insane return BUT had I known what was going to happen, I would have went all-in with my life savings, lol.
 
Nice little gap up at the open, toyed with 15 for a while, then busted right through. This is not just from Ryzen. News early today that AMD losses for 2016 are less than previously reported.
 
darn't boys - I was going to bite if I saw it back down to $14 in the next day or two. nows it's up in the mid-15's and probably won't reverse course unless I buy it. :)
 
Archaea said:
darn't boys - I was going to bite if I saw it back down to $14 in the next day or two. nows it's up in the mid-15's and probably won't reverse course unless I buy it. :)
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This is literally a dead thread. If you could predict the stock market, you'd be wealthy beyond imagination and would likely not be posting here. Pointless.
 
RAutrey said:
I wouldn't. Id sell off enough to cover the investment, plus 100% ROI. That way you win no matter what.
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Strongly considering this--I bought about 300 at $1.8/s, now I've got over $3k in unrealized gains. I doubt if it'll drop under $2 overnight, but it'd still hurt if I missed out on the big wave. :/
 
I bought stocks ONCE, thinking that I had a good feel, being a gamer and PC enthusiast, for how companies were gonna do. I bought THQ shortly before they went under. Total loss.

I had been toying with the idea of buying AMD, and I didnt. Now I regret it.
 
I bought a 1000 shares at $2. I held it for a fuckin year, no movement. Broke even. No regrets, but 12k and more would have been nice, lol.
 
Shotglass01 said:
This is literally a dead thread. If you could predict the stock market, you'd be wealthy beyond imagination and would likely not be posting here. Pointless.
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When I got my hands on the preview of Windows 95, I sank 50K into MS. When Jobs came back to Apple (a company whose products I've never owned) I did it again. I'm also not afraid of losing, keep that in mind.

Sometimes, the writing in the mens room stall is just as plain and clear as day. Call 408-749-4000 for a good time.
 
Simplyfun said:
When I got my hands on the preview of Windows 95, I sank 50K into MS. When Jobs came back to Apple (a company whose products I've never owned) I did it again. I'm also not afraid of losing, keep that in mind.

Sometimes, the writing in the mens room stall is just as plain and clear as day. Call 408-749-4000 for a good time.
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I think you're looking for 867-5309. Even still, asking advice on stocks is about as helpful as asking advice about traffic. You might have made some good decisions. Millions of others didn't.
 
Shotglass01 said:
I think you're looking for 867-5309. Even still, asking advice on stocks is about as helpful as asking advice about traffic. You might have made some good decisions. Millions of others didn't.
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My comment is absolutely not to be taken as advice or guidance.

The number doesn't matter. At all. It's just the number on the wall.

Just pointing out, sometimes you can see what's coming and it doesn't take a rocket scientist. I'm not in the market for CPU's at the moment, but I'm always in the market for information. IF tomorrows news is 90% of Intel's Broadwell and shows power efficiency gains, that's good news for me.
 
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Wall Street opens at 09:30h. It will be interesting to look the AMD stocks behavior tomorrow and friday.
 
Manuel Jose said:
Wall Street opens at 09:30h. It will be interesting to look the AMD stocks behavior tomorrow and friday.
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That's more short term than I'm used to playing, but I'm sure people will make money off it. Whether they went short or long I don't know.


I tend to take a two year approach and do the best I can. There just hasn't been a two or more year forecast for AMD that didn't involve major suckage for a long time.
 
I also play for long term. The most profitable products by AMD will arrive later (Naples by example).
 
Check bloomberg for the action in the DAX. There will be takedowns as the reviewers in Asia hit the net. Will be interesting.
 
And the stock falls after the NDA was released today.

Ryzen, didn't quite live up to pumped up expectations.

My 15% trailing stop is probably going to activate soon if it hasn't already. I'm glad I didn't buy more at $15 or $16 after seeing the Benchmarks and determining my 3.5 year old overclocked I7 4770K at 4.5Ghz is faster for most purposes than a new Ryzen chip. (and my extra PCI-E lanes are appreciated since I have two fury X cards in crossfire). Not much reason for everybody to jump from Intel to AMD - unless you do a lot of video rendering or have a specific purpose for the eight core capability. After all the excitement (I stayed up late last night reading reviews, and have been heavy in anticipation for quite a while trying to find leaked reviews/news etc) --- I think I'm mildly disappointed. For mainstream use (gaming, typical enthusiast level app use) this level of performance has been available for 4 years or more.
 
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