Amazon's Drone Delivery Idea Might Actually Work

CommanderFrank

CommanderFrank

Cat Can't Scratch It
Joined
May 9, 2000
Messages
75,399
Jeff Bezos' vision to use drones to deliver packages super fast to consumers met with a bit of skepticism......all right, a lot of skepticism, but some government officials in Dubai think Bezos' plan might just fit their needs nicely.

A drone can carry a passport or drivers’ license across a neighborhood much more easily than that bowling ball you bought from Amazon.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Wow, who would have thought that lighter items would be easier to deliver with drones. I am truly impressed with the level of reasoning that people have achieved these days.
 
It wont work until they buy a law protecting themselves from falling package lawsuits.
 
People also underestimate how much some of these relatively inexpensive quads can carry:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZJdsci-46g
^ lifting a watercooler quite easily, another video has em lifting two of them duck-taped together IIRC.

Another under 10 pounds I think would be no problem for a commercial drone with good range, as even a $5K copter is cheaper than a simple little moped alone, yet alone paying the moped driver's salary and benefits for a year (that's probably more than the drone costs in 2 months alone).
 
BTW, someone earlier showed how these drones can work together too, so actually now that I think about it no reason that you couldn't have three or four drones working together for really heavy packages.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2itwFJCgFQ
Skip to 10:20 for cooperative drone behavior.
 
Ducman69 said:
yet alone paying the moped driver's salary and benefits for a year (that's probably more than the drone costs in 2 months alone).
Click to expand...

Person driving moped or person driving a drone, whats the difference?
 
Tak Ne said:
Person driving moped or person driving a drone, whats the difference?
Click to expand...

One is driven by a person and the other a computer.

Even if somebody was to watch over the drones. 1 person can watch the data for multiple drones vs 1 person only being able to drive 1 moped.
 
Exavior said:
One is driven by a person and the other a computer.

Even if somebody was to watch over the drones. 1 person can watch the data for multiple drones vs 1 person only being able to drive 1 moped.
Click to expand...

How is the computer (or a person watching screens) going to ring the bell, know where to deliver each parcel, if the signature matches?
 
Tak Ne said:
How is the computer (or a person watching screens) going to ring the bell, know where to deliver each parcel, if the signature matches?
Click to expand...
LMAO, the drone isn't going to ring the bell or request signature on delivery. It would drop it off in someone's yard. Coordinates would likely be determined as a one-time-setup to say a person's curbside. Rather than ring the doorbell, it could simply be automated to send you an email and automated phonecall upon delivery that your package has arrived... this is for rapid transport, things that would show up within 30 mins of ordering like a pizza.

Delivery would be limited at first, but even if they can only make it available to suburbia within a 15 mile radius of their depot initially, that will be very attractive to those customers.
 
Tak Ne said:
How is the computer (or a person watching screens) going to ring the bell, know where to deliver each parcel, if the signature matches?
Click to expand...
Also, if there is a person watching a screen, it would likely be monitoring dozens of drones simultaneously. Amazon also showed that the drone picking up the package and returning to recharge would be automated, had a little conveyor belt tagged with coordinates, it drops it off, and returns to its docking station to charge, rinse and repeat.
 
They'd need detailed 3D layouts of the area (including overhead wires) & the location of everyones front door and it still only works for people with a 'landing area'. If you dont have to sign or acknowledge receipt I bet they'll get a lot of 'lost parcels' This feels like nothing more than a gimmick & publicity stunt.
 
Tak Ne said:
They'd need detailed 3D layouts of the area (including overhead wires) & the location of everyones front door and it still only works for people with a 'landing area'.
Click to expand...
Since when? Drones can avoid obstacles on their own just fine. Go to youtube, watch some videos, come back to us when you understand how advanced the technology is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWJLLdPda64

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jna7Ml8tL6A

The drone can fly under tree branches, avoid power lines, etc all on its own just fine. If you didn't mind the battery drain, it could slow down and delivery it right at your doorstep, although more practical would just be curbside delivery IMO. As long as you get the phone ringing and/or email popping up the second the drone unlatches the product and flies away, there's really no risk of theft. At least its much lower than the risk of their typical service, which involves a UPS truck driver dropping it off at your front door while you're at work (been amazon prime member for years, never ONCE required signature on delivery).
 
Sorry, an empty drone working some or even most of the time in 'lab conditions' isnt the same as it working reliably with dozens or hundreds of moving obstacles around.
 
I'm waiting for news when cops will use them for highway patrols, autoticketing my bank acount when I go 7 over the speed limit.
 
Tak Ne said:
They'd need detailed 3D layouts of the area (including overhead wires) & the location of everyones front door and it still only works for people with a 'landing area'. If you dont have to sign or acknowledge receipt I bet they'll get a lot of 'lost parcels' This feels like nothing more than a gimmick & publicity stunt.
Click to expand...

why the fuck would you try to fly THROUGH trees or THROUGH power lines. You go up. you go over everything, you come down. No need for a 3d map. Just need to know how tall things are in that area.

yes there will be certain restrictions for different things but it isn't impossible. Location of everyone's landing area wouldn't be that hard. Either you the customer clicks on a spot on a map, or a person on their end for every first time order uses an overhead map and clicks on where the drop location should be. For certain things like an apartment they might just say that you can't use the service.

I can point out a few subdivisions that don't accept UPS or FedEx to deliver, that doesn't mean that it is impossible for the rest of the people to get shipments via them. Just like pointing out a few places where drones won't work if they are within the 15 mile radius of a warehouse won't work for drones.
 
This whole drone delivery service is bullshit. There are dozens of technical and legal obstacles that need to be overcome first. It might happen 10-50 years from now, but not anytime soon. It sure is getting a lot of people to talk and think about Amazon though isn't it. And that is the whole point.
 
MajorDomo said:
Jeff Bezos' vision to use drones to deliver packages super fast to consumers met with a bit of skepticism......all right, a lot of skepticism, but some government officials in Dubai think Bezos' plan might just fit their needs nicely.
Click to expand...

Stupid idea. I can see it would have to be a really nicely equipped drone, lots of battery. I can also see people trying to capture them to steal both the delivery and the parts to make their own hobby drone on the cheap.
 
Tak Ne said:
They'd need detailed 3D layouts of the area (including overhead wires) & the location of everyones front door and it still only works for people with a 'landing area'. If you dont have to sign or acknowledge receipt I bet they'll get a lot of 'lost parcels' This feels like nothing more than a gimmick & publicity stunt.
Click to expand...

Glass half empty guy checking in
 
BBA said:
Stupid idea. I can see it would have to be a really nicely equipped drone, lots of battery. I can also see people trying to capture them to steal both the delivery and the parts to make their own hobby drone on the cheap.
Click to expand...
Cellular data connection to photograph them in the act w/ GPS coordinates obviously known would make that a pretty stupid attempt, and how the hell would they know where and when a drone is going to show up, unless they themselves placed the order? In which case, yeah, that kinda makes them a suspect...

And with regard to stealing packages, how hard is it right now to follow a UPS truck around all day, wait until the driver gets out to drop off a package, wait for the driver to drive away, walk up to the door if its not picked up in a couple minutes and steal the package? Not very hard, so it doesn't have to be any more secure than that. Besides, remember these are for virtually instant delivery service, where you end up getting your order in no time, so what are the chances you can intercept the drone at its destination without someone seeing you and calling the cops, along with the fact the drone would also likely notify the police, and could easily have a hidden tracking device inside one of the legs on its own internal battery. It doesn't have to be foolproof, it just has to have lower annual losses than UPS/Fedex/USPS alternatives.

Batteries are a concern, but again think about how much you are saving annually just compared to a UPS driver alone. A union UPS driver makes about $78K, but after benefits, insurance, etc we are looking at over $100K a year cost alone that can be eliminated. That can buy you a lot of quality lipos.

They might also extend range by going with a hybrid design like the US Navy is investing in, that has quad-motors for slow/vertical stationary flight but gains the advantage of speed and additional winged lift for forward flight:
http://www.gizmag.com/hybrid-quadrotor-hq-uav/28767/
More recently, work has begun on a larger, pure carbon fiber-bodied HQ. It weighs 60 lb (27.2 kg), carries 8 lb (3.6 kg), and has a 5-hp engine that should hopefully keep it aloft for up to 24 hours.
Click to expand...
hquav-5.jpg
 
You know... Automated drones are a little scary. To carry any weight those rotors could kill a small child.
 
GPS isn't accurate enough for navigating neighborhoods at speed. The drones would also need optical or radar sensors to avoid things.

This will be a while before it is used for anything except rooftops and larger open areas.
 
ocellaris said:
GPS isn't accurate enough for navigating neighborhoods at speed. The drones would also need optical or radar sensors to avoid things.

This will be a while before it is used for anything except rooftops and larger open areas.
Click to expand...

Avoid a .22 caliber round? Dang, gotta go make a silencer for my rifle now!
 
Ducman69 said:
safeflightcopters_quad_frontpage.png


You know.... UPS delivery trucks are a little scary. Over 10,000 pound vehicles moving at 30mph through residential areas.

Child killed by delivery truck.
Click to expand...

Lets see how well it lifts with guarding like that. Even with that guarding the weight of the thing can kill or maim. Don't get me wrong, it'd be cool to see drones running around, just has to be done right.

I am afraid of the UPS trucks too! :).
 
ocellaris said:
GPS isn't accurate enough for navigating neighborhoods at speed. The drones would also need optical or radar sensors to avoid things.
Click to expand...
They don't have to navigate neighborhoods at speed. It could fly at 200 feet until it reaches its destination, then reduce altitude straight down.

LV-MaxSonar systems for obstacle avoidance are very lightweight, already tested, and only cost $250 for ten. I'm sure Amazon buying in bulk could get them even cheaper:
http://www.maxbotix.com/Ultrasonic_Sensors/MB1000.htm

Resolution is one inch, so it can avoid anything that size or larger.

Infrared ones are another option and are even cheaper.

To get even higher resolution and fancier, some have adopted kinect sensors:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWmVrfjDCyw
 
You gotta laugh at all the people talking about shooting these down. Great idea genius. Shoot down an FAA registered aircraft with built in gps and cameras. I'm sure you'll get off Scott free.
 
maverikv said:
You gotta laugh at all the people talking about shooting these down. Great idea genius. Shoot down an FAA registered aircraft with built in gps and cameras. I'm sure you'll get off Scott free.
Click to expand...

What's your point? People shoot a lot of things, even police officers. The bad part, even if they miss the drones, people will still be shooting at them, in the air, with no idea where the projectile is going to come down.

But, I am sure there will be other methods of capturing them, like, reprogramming, radio transmitters, EMI, etc. If you blind it, it will fall. I'd bet a microwave oven and a little re-engineering is all one would need for that.
 
BBA said:
But, I am sure there will be other methods of capturing them, like, reprogramming, radio transmitters, EMI, etc. If you blind it, it will fall. I'd bet a microwave oven and a little re-engineering is all one would need for that.
Click to expand...
So let me get this straight, drones aren't as effective as a UPS truck because:

1) People can't rob a UPS truck and take dozens and dozens of packages, or simply follow the UPS truck around on its deliveries and grab stuff from people's doorsteps
2) People are going to somehow know the exact timing and route of a drone flying at 30mph at perhaps 200-300 feet altitude to its destination, or be standing by ready to commit a federal crime, public endangerment, and who knows what else to risk being photographed shooting at a quadcopter
3) Random street thugs are going to learn themselves some science and reengineer a microwave oven to create a futuristic anti-drone gun to get a SINGLE package....

Again, it only has to be more secure than the current system of a UPS truck driver leaving packages at people's doorsteps unattended, carrying tons of packages around meaning if you spot one on the road you can follow him around all day.

You guys are investing WAAAAAAY too much effort to try and find some kind of flaw in this system.
 
Ducman69 said:
So let me get this straight, drones aren't as effective as a UPS truck because:

1) People can't rob a UPS truck and take dozens and dozens of packages, or simply follow the UPS truck around on its deliveries and grab stuff from people's doorsteps
2) People are going to somehow know the exact timing and route of a drone flying at 30mph at perhaps 200-300 feet altitude to its destination, or be standing by ready to commit a federal crime, public endangerment, and who knows what else to risk being photographed shooting at a quadcopter
3) Random street thugs are going to learn themselves some science and reengineer a microwave oven to create a futuristic anti-drone gun to get a SINGLE package....

Again, it only has to be more secure than the current system of a UPS truck driver leaving packages at people's doorsteps unattended, carrying tons of packages around meaning if you spot one on the road you can follow him around all day.

You guys are investing WAAAAAAY too much effort to try and find some kind of flaw in this system.
Click to expand...

Beyond that, with this system it should be possible to schedule the flying delivery at a time when you are home.
 
I can imagine how annoying it would be to have all these buzzing drones flying around the city. Time to by a shotgun.
 
I'm surprised this idea gets so much flak. I think it's cool. UPS trucks are arguably more dangerous than any drones could ever be. Get your packages faster, etc. I fail to see the problem here. The technology in the video shows just what can be accomplished with technology now. Imagine the drones a few years from now in comparison.
 
FM 3370 said:
I can imagine how annoying it would be to have all these buzzing drones flying around the city. Time to by a shotgun.
Click to expand...
1) Why would there be more of these than there are UPS trucks driving by your house?
2) What is the decibel output of an electric copter flying overhead at 200 feet compared to a 7.8 liter turbocummins diesel truck driving by your house?
 
Dan_D said:
I'm surprised this idea gets so much flak. I think it's cool. UPS trucks are arguably more dangerous than any drones could ever be. Get your packages faster, etc. I fail to see the problem here. The technology in the video shows just what can be accomplished with technology now. Imagine the drones a few years from now in comparison.
Click to expand...

I don't get it either. It is about as asinine as when the iPad came out. Yes we know tablets existed for a long time and we know that Apple didn't event them...but Apple did push "the art" a fuck ton longer down the road than where it currently was. It goes in the same notion as the StarTAC phones...people bitched they were "too small".
 
A drones max payload and max payload over xx distance are not the same.

Just because a drone can pick up 100 lbs doesn't mean it can also carry that 100 lbs 5 miles.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top