A bigadv Royal Flush!

M

may i be worthy

[H]ard|DCer of the Month - December 2010
Joined
Aug 17, 2010
Messages
1,186
SR2#1 has pulled a Bigadv Royal Flush - with consecutive bigadvs in project order, all 5 currently available projects, newest to oldest:

Mon 6900 - Ace
Tue 2692 - King
Wed 2686 - Queen
Thu 2685 - Jack
Fri 2684 - Ten

Frankly, I might have preferred 4 of a kind 6900s with a 2692 kicker, but still.... So looking at my spreadsheet of work unit frequency (as one does) since 6900 was released 45 days ago, from 161 units we get:

6900 - 59%
2692 - 3%
2686 - 12%
2685 - 14%
2684 - 12%

I haven't done probability maths since high school, but my rusty estimate is that I should multiply 59% x 3% x 12% x 14% x12% = 0.0034% or 1 in 30,000 chance of this happening.

So 30,000 x 4.4 days / 3 machines = I should experience this every 117 years or so. Depending on how my PSUs hold out.

I don't know if this is the most important news you might hear today, but I found it amusing. :p
 
I don't know what you just said but I think I dig it. :cool:
 
lol time to build a few more SR-2 rigs to improve on those odd's. :p
 
Think you might want to settle back and grab a cold one to ease the suffering from all that Summer time heat your getting down there my friend. Your mind is working overtime coming up with these kinds of statistics, and it's hurting my head thinking about it... :D
 
So what is up with the multicolored 6900? None of the other units warrant two colors? If I didn't know better, i would think you had a crush on 6900 work units.... :)
 
Axdrenalin said:
Think you might want to settle back and grab a cold one to ease the suffering from all that Summer time heat your getting down there my friend. Your mind is working overtime coming up with these kinds of statistics, and it's hurting my head thinking about it... :D
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I agree. Sounds like someone needs a slab of VB.
 
ok, so the consensus is I am a little bit unbalanced - no news there. (And I love that the standard response in [H] is to suggest adding either more beer or moar D :D)

But seeing as I lost my Fastest Rig in the [H]orde to 10e, and soon to lose my #1 producer slot to Musky (the only member I trust enough on ppd matters to hand over a title based only upon a Moar D announcement), I am practising getting creative about qualifying my e-peen records... I will soon have to say things like I have the Fastest Air-Cooled Intel Based Farm in the Southern Hemisphere Running In a Garage Without Aircon Purchased in 2010..

And the hot weather is not helping - I am darting into the garage every half hour to check temps. So far so good. 41c outside and 25.5c inside. Lovely. But only 3pm.

And yes, given that one single project has resulted in 45% of my total points, I won't have a bad word said about my lovely busty fresh smelling Swedish served 6900's,:eek:

So nobody wants to play bigadv poker? - last Friday of the month, pick a machine, look at the last 5 units, see who has the best hand? Winner gets to keep losers farms?:p
 
lol thats to easy for me.. last 5 WU's, 6701 6701 6701 6701 6701. beat that!
 
Does 5 of a kind beat a royal flush? I have a full house on one SR-2 (3-6900s, 2-2686s) and 5 of a kind on the other (5-6900s.) The 970 has run 9 6900s in a row, so another 5 of a kind. I am going to have to go with MIBW winning this hand, and he got them in sequence too.
 
I'm pretty sure 5 of a kind is frowned upon in moat upscale poker matches lol

I like the idea of poker tho on bigadv rigs, just a random little thing lol
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sirmonkey1985 said:
lol thats to easy for me.. last 5 WU's, 6701 6701 6701 6701 6701. beat that!
Click to expand...

Hmmm, I am struggling to imagine a less desirable hand. Jeez, have a drink on me.

musky said:
Does 5 of a kind beat a royal flush? I have a full house on one SR-2 (3-6900s, 2-2686s) and 5 of a kind on the other (5-6900s.) The 970 has run 9 6900s in a row, so another 5 of a kind. I am going to have to go with MIBW winning this hand, and he got them in sequence too.
Click to expand...

Yes. Please box up and ship me your farm (just in the nick of time too)

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How the hell do you get 9 in a row? My best is 6 in a row - got that 4 times, but never more.

But Vaulter is right, 5 of a kind is easy and kind of trashy. Given that 6900s are like water, we should probably make them the Ten, and bump all the others up so 2692 is Ace. Which makes sense, give how fast and rare it is. Feels right. Am I actually discussing this? I think I am.
 
Assuming that there are only five bigadvs - taking from the list you wrote. The correct odds would be actually

*.20 of the end result of your formulation meaning 1/5 of 1/30,000 so that would be eh, one in a 1.5 million. You forgot to factor in the odds of getting a work unit out of a set " one out of five " and such.

Nice odds.

EDIT - The actual odd derived from the .0034 you had, I multiplied it by .20 then you get an odd of 0.00068 so there. (This is the correct way)

DOUBLE EDIT - I'm actually a retard. Statistically the real probability lies here at .20 * .20 * .20 * .20 * .20 = .00032 provided that there are only five bigadv projects assuming these projects are evenly distributed, what you've obtained in the past does not matter as the probability remains the same provided that the other folders gets the same amount of work - perhaps different projects thus... I'm just rambling but yeah true odd is as stated above in the DOUBLE EDIT section.
 
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Statistics makes my head hurt (a LOT).

Cool deal on the royal flush though :D

 
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