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The Ti4200 would pwn that. It's just a (very, VERY slightly) overclocked GeForce FX 5200. It'd be akin to a GeForce 3 Ti500 performance level.
Seriously, the Ti4200 is the card to get of those two. Odds of being able to find a 'moddable' 9500np at the moment is roughly ZERO. And 'stock', the 9500np is kinda a turd.
That said, you can find Radeon 9500 Pros on eBay for around $75 shipped in great condition. That would be the ideal choice, as it is substantially faster than any of the other cards listed (like, say, twice as fast as the GeForce 5500 linked above). Plus, it brings DX9 goodness to the table for Half-Life 2 playability. (And I see you have an ATI card in your sig, so I presume you are already familiar with what games do and do not work with ATI cards and are not finding that an inconvenience for your personal needs.)
If you look around, you should be able to find 128MB 9600NPs in that price range. The Ti4200 would probably take them in raw triangle-pushing performance, but the 9600 should handle IQ & advanced shaders better.
Depending on the budget, a Ti4600 off ebay would probably be the best bet. Its DX8 performance is very fast, faster than the 9600/9500 when AA is not used. It performs well with AF. For $70 (2 on ebay for that price), it's hard to beat, or even match. If you can find another 9500 Pro or 9600 Pro for less than $100, then go for that. Otherwise I suggest the Ti4600.