20 Years Of Gates’ Predictions

H

HardOCP News

[H] News
Joined
Dec 31, 1969
Messages
0
The Seattle Post Intelligencer has a list of predictions made by Bill Gates over the last twenty years. It is surprising to see which predictions actually came true and which ones didn’t.

1995: This Gates book had many predictions about technology, some of them prescient: "You'll watch a program when it's convenient for you instead of when a broadcaster chooses to air it. You'll shop, order food, contact friends, or publish information for others to use when and as you want to."
Click to expand...
 
"640K of memory should be enough for anybody."

I have seen people on this very forum use this quote as fact quite a few times ( usually to bash Microsoft.) It's interesting to find that Bill Gates never said it, and when used I have never seen anyone refute the comment.
 
Even if he did say it, that's definitely something taken out of context.. If something like that was said in 1986 about computers of the time, maybe it was correct. But then it would only apply to whatever was being referenced, not a statement of 640k being the most memory people would ever need forever.

Hell, he probably did say it and forgot about it, because of the context of the comment.
 
homernoy said:
"640K of memory should be enough for anybody."

I have seen people on this very forum use this quote as fact quite a few times ( usually to bash Microsoft.) It's interesting to find that Bill Gates never said it, and when used I have never seen anyone refute the comment.
Click to expand...
That's because many of us just got sick of correcting the same bad quotes. ;) I remember reading the first time Gates addressed the rumor (the old Ask Bill column) back in the 1990s mentioned in the article. Some people love to be willfully ignorant.
 
pxc said:
That's because many of us just got sick of correcting the same bad quotes. ;)
Click to expand...

Yeah I gave up but every now and then it still bugs enoughto dig out the original refutation of it when people use it.
 
Not one person or source has been shown to recall him saying it. I don't believe he did.

GATES ON THE FUTURE

In his recent public appearances, Bill Gates has offered several attention-getting predictions about the future of business and technology. Among them:

On the future of media: "Reading is going to go completely online. ... Today, for people who read newspapers and magazines, even the most avid PC user probably still does quite a bit of reading on print. As the device moves down in size and simplicity, that will change, and so somewhere in the next five-year period we'll hit that transition point, and things will be even more dramatic than they are today."
Click to expand...
I admit, I've taken a shit with a laptop before. But the bathroom has got to be the one thing preventing reading to go completely online. This is absurd. People want their books and print. Nobody is going to take the Browns to the SuperBowl, at work, with a laptop. Some of my best reading is done on the crapper.

Also, doesn't anyone find it absolutely horrible to edit or proofread documents on the computer? I have to print it out to catch mistakes I miss over and over again on the screen. I think coexistence is in the cards for reading.
 
Newspapers already print everything in tiny columns, making them ideal to read on smaller devices like phones or PDAs.

I regularly use an off line RSS / article viewer on my PDA phone to catch up on things while on the buss, on a plane. I also use it to check movie listings for my local theaters.
 
Hmm, interesting. I never realized that Bill never made that memory quote.

As to print media, until computers become completely disposable I don't see them replacing print media. They also take time to boot up and are inherently more complicated than print media.

Just like the iron age never ended the use of bronze (or wood;) ) I don't see computers completely replacing other media.
 
UrielDagda said:
Hell, he probably did say it and forgot about it, because of the context of the comment.
Click to expand...

That logic is behind almost every urban legend that exists, be it a quote, story, or "truth." The fact that its believable means that people will listen to it. If he'd said something like "In the future, only PCs that are colored blue and take a Jiggawatt of electricity would be useful," no one would believe it. Something about computers coming from a guy that everyone (mostly irrationally) loves to hate is just fun. We see it more often in politics, but with big business more and more (like all the "stats" that surround Wal-Mart). Not that there's anything wrong with logic like that, just a basis for how these things get spread around.

I wonder if the same person who made this one up also made up that "donation" chain letter...

In the end, Bill is a smart guy that is somewhat unique. Everyone has a vision of the future, but he's one of the few that actually works to make that vision reality. Like him or hate him, you have to admire what he's done, even if you don't like the outcome. I read that about 50% of the predictions in his book "The Road Ahead" ended up at least partially true. I think most people would kill for an average like that...
 
the claim about "factoring large prime numbers?".

Wumpus

I think the need for a quick second edition "now with stuff on the internet" of The Road Ahead is a real thing to note, instead of a slip the ghost writer didn't edit out.
 
deeznuts said:
Also, doesn't anyone find it absolutely horrible to edit or proofread documents on the computer? I have to print it out to catch mistakes I miss over and over again on the screen. I think coexistence is in the cards for reading.
Click to expand...

The fact that the rise of computerisation has been accompanied by an even bigger increase in our consumption of paper would bear testament.

Proof-reading the printed output is far more effective than proof-reading the on-screen display.
 
1995: This Gates book had many predictions about technology, some of them prescient: "You'll watch a program when it's convenient for you instead of when a broadcaster chooses to air it."
Click to expand...

By 1995, even my behind-the-times parents had owned a VCR for many years. What'll his next prediction be, the invention of the wheel? :rolleyes:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top