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Mega I.P.O. Frenzy Could Be a Harbinger of a Stock Bubble

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philb2

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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/13/business/spacex-ipo-musk-stock-bubble.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

SpaceX set its own valuation way above an important threshold, a 40-to-one price-to-sales ratio, meaning it would take 40 years of sales to equal the market value at that share price. Stocks valued above that level have rarely made money over the next three years. Because the Anthropic and OpenAI public offerings are still at a preliminary stage, there’s less information about them. But their valuations imply richly priced shares, too.

For investors to accept these prices — as well as those of many other big tech stocks — is, in itself, troubling. It suggests that the stock market has entered perilous territory. If this isn’t already a full-blown bubble, it could easily become one.
 
I'm in on SPCX because they caught a rocket with chopsticks. It wasn't an investor's brief or a fantastical dream being sold. They did the thing and it was real. And then they did it again, better.

The world needs people that inspire something in others to do fantastic things. Musk seems to have that going on.

Maybe I'll be a micro-bagholder. Maybe not.

Don't care because space is awesome.
 
I bought some SpaceX just to support the cause. Not to make money. I kinda wish I would have bought more seeing how much it already went up though.
 
space is cool, but there's no way the valuation is anything other than pure insanity...
1781668786629.png

lifted from r/dataisbeautiful
 
rufio said:
space is cool, but there's no way the valuation is anything other than pure insanity...
View attachment 809682
lifted from r/dataisbeautiful
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SpaceX has the most space/aerospace contracts than any other company with the US government (if you remove non-areo space defense/war things like tanks, jets, missiles etc) - they're the unofficial 'new' space branch/sector of the US government

Seems fine to me in that context.
 
kram182 said:
SpaceX has the most space/aerospace contracts than any other company with the US government (if you remove non-areo space defense/war things like tanks, jets, missiles etc) - they're the unofficial 'new' space branch/sector of the US government

Seems fine to me in that context.
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Boeing has a 200B market cap on 20B/quarter in revenue.
SpaceX has a 2.6T market cap on 20B/YEAR in revenue.

I cheerlead SpaceX more than any three average joes you'll meet on the street, but that's not good business. That's just VibeInvestment.
 
XenIneX said:
Boeing has a 200B market cap on 20B/quarter in revenue.
SpaceX has a 2.6T market cap on 20B/YEAR in revenue.

I cheerlead SpaceX more than any three average joes you'll meet on the street, but that's not good business. That's just VibeInvestment.
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Like I explained, it's a part of the government now, unofficially 😁

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/

Alternatively - Amazon operated at a loss for 4.5 years after it IPO'd before its first profitable quarter - and for 6 years at a loss until its first full profitable year (and adjusted for inflation would be valued at $1.16B back during its IPO) - it's doing fine - it'll be fine 😊

Edit - and we don't even have asteroid mining or sexbots yet - point being it's all a vibeconomy running on/within a vibecountry - but we have all the guns and SpaceXs and Amazons - it'll be fine stuff always works out in the end just pick the most sensible vibe 😊

1781678873898.png
 
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kram182 said:
Edit - and we don't even have asteroid mining or sexbots yet - point being it's all a vibeconomy running on/within a vibecountry - but we have all the guns and SpaceXs and Amazons - it'll be fine stuff always works out in the end just pick the most sensible vibe 😊
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It used to be just vibrators. Now it's vibing sexbots... is vibing a word now?
 
If Starlink had a new technology that allowed reliable. high bandwidth to handheld mobile phones anywhere in range of the low orbit satellites they could be worth as much as the IPO since they would have most mobile phone traffic going through their network. But they don’t.
 
kram182 said:
SpaceX has the most space/aerospace contracts than any other company with the US government (if you remove non-areo space defense/war things like tanks, jets, missiles etc) - they're the unofficial 'new' space branch/sector of the US government

Seems fine to me in that context.
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philb2 said:
Elon Musk, Human Ponzi Scheme (not my original thought, read it somewhere)
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SpaceX was another subsidized Musk/government company. He seemingly has a partnership with them to push unprofitable enterprises and engineer social change.

SolarCity (~$0.5B loan from government, bought by Tesla before bankruptcy), Tesla ($0.5B loan from government, tax credits, Federal subsidies).

SpaceX:
NASA's help to SpaceX in the 2000s was much more than writing checks. It was a deliberate strategy to create a commercial space industry after the retirement of the Space Shuttle. Theory is NASA also gave SpaceX plans to the Space Shuttle.

NASA’s support of SpaceX became existential in 2008, when the company was nearly out of cash after three failed Falcon 1 launches and Elon Musk later said a fourth failure would have been “game over.” On December 23, 2008, NASA awarded SpaceX a Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contract worth about $1.6 billion for 12 cargo flights to the International Space Station, a deal widely credited with saving the company from bankruptcy.

NASA helped SpaceX survive and scale by providing billions in milestone-based development funding through programs like COTS and Commercial Crew, including roughly $75 million in CCDev2 funding, $440 million in CCiCap funding, and a $2.6 billion Commercial Crew contract in 2014.

Beyond direct funding, NASA gave SpaceX access to launch infrastructure, ISS integration, mission operations support, and testing facilities that would have cost billions to replicate privately.
 
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zehoo said:
If Starlink had a new technology that allowed reliable. high bandwidth to handheld mobile phones anywhere in range of the low orbit satellites they could be worth as much as the IPO since they would have most mobile phone traffic going through their network. But they don’t.
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They do. V2 sats in 2027 will deliver the high bandwidth.
 
I've seen this headline on [H] for the last 2 years.

the market has been going on a bull run for 2 years (some dips but on 2 yr time frame, irrelevant).


Also, people have been complaining that tesla isn't worth what they are priced at for the last 10 years. They're right, but it's still priced the way it is. People have lost entire fortunes trying to short tsla.
 
For anyone wanting to understand the nuts and bolts of what's currently going on with SpaceX, Musk only released about 4% of the outstanding shares into the float for public purchase, so you have a gigantic supply and demand imbalance. People know SpaceX is already one of the most revolutionary companies of the modern era and they all want a piece of it. That's why the valuation appears to be so disconnected from traditional metrics. That said, Tesla stock also defied logic for years, but the Tesla religious faithful didn't care. They were investing in the future, they said, and regardless of how many pocket-protector wearing level 3 CFAs pointed out price to sales ratios and all that, none of them cared, and the stock continued to rise. I've never owned it because I couldn't figure it out either, but not everything has to make sense when people are involved. Betting against Elon Musk hasn't been profitable historically.

My opinion is SpaceX is most likely short term overvalued based on the share count and the overenthusiasm (IPOs are historically not the best time to buy an asset for a long term hold), but if I'm looking out 10 years, I don't think it's unreasonable that this company's worth north of $2 trillion in the slightest. They're years ahead of the competition right now in rocket technology and satellite internet. It isn't even close. SpaceX competitors are forced to use SpaceX launch services if they want to compete with StarLink. Launch costs for SpaceX rockets are a fraction of what their competitors can offer. It doesn't matter what your opinion is on Musk, you can't deny his accomplishments. The price might be a bubble RIGHT NOW due to the supply and demand imbalance that may correct as the float expands, and you'll likely get a better entry in the coming month, but in the long term, I'd be shocked if SpaceX isn't a winner.

In any case, plenty of opinion writers in newspapers like the NYT have been calling everything a bubble since the S&P bounced back from the 2009 lows. It's up 10x since then, so pessimism about the future hasn't been rewarded. People who have stayed the course have done well. Wall Street will never give actionable advice for free.
 
philb2 said:
Elon Musk, Human Ponzi Scheme (not my original thought, read it somewhere)
Click to expand...

Elon Musk is dominating EVs, Space, AI, and robotics right now. The guy who came up with that quote might be dominating a philosophy course in college. So far, Elon's winning that competition by about $1 Trillion.
 
XenIneX said:
Boeing has a 200B market cap on 20B/quarter in revenue.
SpaceX has a 2.6T market cap on 20B/YEAR in revenue.

I cheerlead SpaceX more than any three average joes you'll meet on the street, but that's not good business. That's just VibeInvestment.
Click to expand...

Boeing is an aerospace company that apparently forgot how to properly build a commercial airliner, and then the whistle blowing engineer "mysteriously died" before he could testify about what happened in court. Then they tried to launch a space capsule that failed so hard that NASA had to call Elon to rescue the astronauts Boeing literally left stranded in space. Elon, by comparison, was successful. That's why Boeing has the valuation it does, and SpaceX has the valuation it does.
 
HockeyJon said:
Boeing is an aerospace company that apparently forgot how to properly build a commercial airliner, and then the whistle blowing engineer "mysteriously died" before he could testify about what happened in court. Then they tried to launch a space capsule that failed so hard that NASA had to call Elon to rescue the astronauts Boeing literally left stranded in space. Elon, by comparison, was successful. That's why Boeing has the valuation it does, and SpaceX has the valuation it does.
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Nope. SpaceX has the valuation it does because of the folding of xAI into SpaceX. If he hadn't done that then the valuation wouldn't be anywhere near what it is. People banging on about the space achievements are missing the point. Yes, what SpaceX did is pretty impressive but the valuation isn't about launching rockets. They're betting on AI just like they're betting on AI for every other company. All the eggs are going in one basket. My bet is that he's using the investment in AI to grow Starlink and SpaceX rocket stuff so even if the value of the company tanks because he loses the AI race he'll have built something out of it. A decent motivation but I wouldn't be sinking my money into it. Like others have said, it is likely donating money to the cause and not investing at this stage.
 
Ididar said:
Nope. SpaceX has the valuation it does because of the folding of xAI into SpaceX. If he hadn't done that then the valuation wouldn't be anywhere near what it is. People banging on about the space achievements are missing the point. Yes, what SpaceX did is pretty impressive but the valuation isn't about launching rockets. They're betting on AI just like they're betting on AI for every other company. All the eggs are going in one basket. My bet is that he's using the investment in AI to grow Starlink and SpaceX rocket stuff so even if the value of the company tanks because he loses the AI race he'll have built something out of it. A decent motivation but I wouldn't be sinking my money into it. Like others have said, it is likely donating money to the cause and not investing at this stage.
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SpaceX also has the valuation it does because Musk only put out 4% of the outstanding shares in the float for the IPO and there's a huge supply-demand imbalance driving the value of those shares up. He's a master salesman. My point is you can't compare a company like Boeing to SpaceX and say "see, this doesn't make sense". SpaceX is firing on all cylinders and crushing every market they operate in right now, showing a bright, optimistic future. People are excited about it, and xAI isn't the only reason. Boeing can't even build a 737 properly anymore and hasn't had a notable revolutionary achievement in years. That's the difference. Investors are forward looking and the market isn't stupid.
 
The entire market is not investable right now, short term trades may be but it's wild wild west with open manipulation and daily pumps and dumps at extreme levels. The SEC doesn't exist for all intents and purposes. SNDK is 2100..sure.
 
HockeyJon said:
Boeing is an aerospace company that apparently forgot how to properly build a commercial airliner, and then the whistle blowing engineer "mysteriously died" before he could testify about what happened in court. Then they tried to launch a space capsule that failed so hard that NASA had to call Elon to rescue the astronauts Boeing literally left stranded in space. Elon, by comparison, was successful. That's why Boeing has the valuation it does, and SpaceX has the valuation it does.
Click to expand...

Don't forget Boeing's high profile oft in the news quality control and manufacturing issues with the 737 Max and 777 issues etc

Edit: Oh you mentioned 'airliner' I see (I can't read) 😖
 
undertaker2k8 said:
The entire market is not investable right now, short term trades may be but it's wild wild west with open manipulation and daily pumps and dumps at extreme levels. The SEC doesn't exist for all intents and purposes. SNDK is 2100..sure.
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The S&P500 movements overall have been quite typical. It's up around 7.5% this year with a rather boring chart. The entire market isn't defined by AI, that's just the segment of the market people keep talking about.
 
HockeyJon said:
The S&P500 movements overall have been quite typical. It's up around 7.5% this year with a rather boring chart. The entire market isn't defined by AI, that's just the segment of the market people keep talking about.
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Feels a lot different if you have any concentration in software names (which I sadly do).
 
HockeyJon said:
Right, but to say "the entire market is not investable right now" is not accurate. If you've been sitting in index funds all year, this year hasn't been that exciting.
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The manipulation by hedge funds in inidividual blue chip names has been nothing short of breathtaking. Many software names down 70% despite beat and raises qtr after qtr, while every single chip company pumped to the moon. Even shitty HIMX which I've owned and traded around since times of Google glass went 250% in a couple of months, nothing against AMD or MU and rooting for INTC but the valuations are beyond absurd for all of these, assuming a hw buildout that continues in perpetuity....this before we even bring up SPCX lol.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
The manipulation by hedge funds in inidividual blue chip names has been nothing short of breathtaking. Many software names down 70% despite beat and raises qtr after qtr, while every single chip company pumped to the moon. Even shitty HIMX which I've owned and traded around since times of Google glass went 250% in a couple of months, nothing against AMD or MU and rooting for INTC but the valuations are beyond absurd for all of these, assuming a hw buildout that continues in perpetuity....this before we even bring up SPCX lol.
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People are selling software stocks now because the market, rightly or wrongly, has decided AI will disrupt or eliminate a lot of them. It's not entirely wrong, but it's also not entirely right. I doubt software companies will be able to charge what they have in the past, but on the flip side, no one's asking the customers why they use enterprise software. In any case, that's not necessarily hedge fund manipulation. A lot of people genuinely think the AI industry will kill SaaS.
 
HockeyJon said:
People are selling software stocks now because the market, rightly or wrongly, has decided AI will disrupt or eliminate a lot of them. It's not entirely wrong, but it's also not entirely right. I doubt software companies will be able to charge what they have in the past, but on the flip side, no one's asking the customers why they use enterprise software. In any case, that's not necessarily hedge fund manipulation. A lot of people genuinely think the AI industry will kill SaaS.
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That is a false premise and it's AI that will largely be commoditized and incorporated into existing major players' platforms. Time will tell ofc and all I can do for now is to build up major cash and treasuries positions when the AI crash inevitably happens, if AI companies charged actual costs and made profits, the AI kills SaaS bs would die tomorrow but the markets can stay irrational for a long time and I need to stay solvent..
Also keeping the indexes calm and savaging individual names and entire sectors on whim is what Goldman et all have perfected now with absolutely no fear of oversight or investigations if they go too far.
 
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Part of that insane valuation is the patents and IP they hold is just worth a ton of money all by themselves. Being able to reuse a booster rocket is just a huge deal and massively cuts the cost of launching into space. Will have a few years before will be able to say it was a good investment or a terrible one.
 
Gideon said:
Part of that insane valuation is the patents and IP they hold is just worth a ton of money all by themselves. Being able to reuse a booster rocket is just a huge deal and massively cuts the cost of launching into space. Will have a few years before will be able to say it was a good investment or a terrible one.
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None of that applies to AMD, MU or INTC though, beyond absurd valuations for all of them. HW forward multiples are 10x SW right now, with market pricing in that everyone will create whatever software they want automatically by prompting LLMs...
 
HockeyJon said:
Right, but to say "the entire market is not investable right now" is not accurate. If you've been sitting in index funds all year, this year hasn't been that exciting.
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I am up 26% this year in indexes and sold it all. Moving it to high dividend funds, not because I am a dividend investor, but because the companies in those funds are solidly profitable and for my own sanity I need to see that for it to make sense to me.
 
polonyc2 said:
stop it with the stock bubble talk...people have been saying this for years and comparing it to the dot com bubble...stop
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Repo markets are stressed right now and while the fed is holding rates steady, they are expanding their balance sheet. This is going to create more volatility. p/e ratios make no sense to me. What's a good sensible investment at this point?
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
Repo markets are stressed right now and while the fed is holding rates steady, they are expanding their balance sheet. This is going to create more volatility. p/e ratios make no sense to me. What's a good sensible investment at this point?
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there's no crash coming...buy the dips...there will always be small to large corrections but a full crash is not going to happen anytime soon...plenty of AI and energy stocks to buy after a dip- Broadcom, Micron, Nvidia, AMD
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
Repo markets are stressed right now and while the fed is holding rates steady, they are expanding their balance sheet. This is going to create more volatility. p/e ratios make no sense to me. What's a good sensible investment at this point?
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Cash, I'd have said some blue chip software names even a couple of months ago but I truly believe now that hedgies could take companies like CRM, INTU, ADBE to near 0 in the short term and may even half MSFT from here. GLD may be, BTC is a cluster too right now and directionless, real estate is dumping all over but certain pockets like Palo Alto where the AI owner class lives. You can always buy SNDK or MU , they may go to 10k a share before popping though 🤣 and HDDs also back in fashion, STX at 1100 , fucking Seagate...OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs and guaranteed subsequent crashes are the only thing that can bring sanity back to markets after hopefully an 80% haircut in semis and AI memes.
 
polonyc2 said:
there's no crash coming...buy the dips...there will always be small to large corrections but a full crash is not going to happen anytime soon...plenty of AI and energy stocks to buy after a dip- Broadcom, Micron, Nvidia, AMD
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I had a nice chunk in those and sold and made a nice chunk. I prefer asymmetrical upside or stability. So I am not going back in. I will stick with high value and dividend investing for the foreseeable future.
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
What's a good sensible investment at this point?
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When was it good and I'll find someone arguing markets made no sense at that time.

Why do you think the aphorism ""the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" was invented/said in the first place?

Edit: Read it as 'what good is a..." but still, point stands.

undertaker2k8 said:
cash...after hopefully an 80% haircut....
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Always horrible to be sitting in cash..... and I wouldn't hold your breath (or be in cash) waiting for an 80% correction. Reminds me of something else I just saw today.
 
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Honestly you talk about all the bubbles as your friend kram, I'd say you are irrational trying to get people to believe in every thing
 
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