Will current gen cards get heavily discounted when next gen arrives?

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biggles

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Some people have been saying that miners will be dumping lots of current gen video cards on the market when the next generation of video cards are released. Is it reasonable to assume, for instance, that 1070's will drop below msrp when the 2070/2080 is released later this year?

It sounds like wishful thinking to me. The idea that there will be a glut of used cards out there does not sound right. More likely, miners would use both old and new cards for mining.

It would be great if this really did happen. My system could use that kind of gpu upgrade on the cheap. Is this really going to happen this year?
 
unless there is a crypto crash...

RAM prices are not helping graphics cards from getting cheaper either.
 
last gen have never really gotten discounted when next gen comes out. most retailers just leave them at their current price til their stock is gone since the next gen is usually more expensive than the previous one anyways.
 
biggles said:
Some people have been saying that miners will be dumping lots of current gen video cards on the market when the next generation of video cards are released. Is it reasonable to assume, for instance, that 1070's will drop below msrp when the 2070/2080 is released later this year?

It sounds like wishful thinking to me. The idea that there will be a glut of used cards out there does not sound right. More likely, miners would use both old and new cards for mining.

It would be great if this really did happen. My system could use that kind of gpu upgrade on the cheap. Is this really going to happen this year?
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People keep making these posts fantasizing about some magical flood of cheap GPU's. Problem is, miners will buy nextgen GPU's, but will not dump lastgen GPU's.

Here's why: Any GPU that earns more than the electricity it costs to run it, is going to remain in place mining. Whether it changes hands between farms or miners doesn't matter - it's still going to be mining. And because Pascal is so damn efficient, the profitability curve on the "approach to zero" (zero = the point at which electricity and revenue break even) is going to have a long tail.
 
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You will have to jump on the new cards as soon as they release. Because once they sell out, prices will inflate again. The new card is your best chance to upgrade, jump on it before the cryptominers buy em all out!

Hopefully you can place a pre-order and get your card in. Video cards are already under produced compared to market demand, so the older cards as long as they can still be used for mining will probably continue to sell out, not to mention, they won't be produced anymore once the new gpu lines release.
 
Nope. You're just going to see even higher prices and shit availability on the new ones.
 
No, not necessarily. The whole crypto market is screwing up natural tendency's, which blows but we just have to roll with the hoarder punches ;D
 
the crypto market will keep the prices of any cards high until an asic that makes gpu dramatically less profitable...
 
Lunas said:
the crypto market will keep the prices of any cards high until an asic that makes gpu dramatically less profitable...
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This will never happen though. As soon as someone comes up with a better way to mine using specialty equipment, another person will come out with a new coin that benefits from just GPU. That coin will inherently have some kind of value to it since it will be one that people can mine with regular computer hardware. It’s what happened with Bitcoin, and Etherium was introduced. When Eth got saturated and difficult to mine, people moved to new alt coins like Garlic and Raven. As long as people want to mine, there will be a coin for them. GPU mining isn’t going anywhere.
 
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AltTabbins said:
This will never happen though. As soon as someone comes up with a better way to mine using specialty equipment, another person will come out with a new coin that benefits from just GPU. That coin will inherently have some kind of value to it since it will be one that people can mine with regular computer hardware. It’s what happened with Bitcoin, and Etherium was introduced. When Eth got saturated and difficult to mine, people moved to new alt coins like Garlic and Raven. As long as people want to mine, there will be a coin for them. GPU mining isn’t going anywhere.
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which means for as long as the value of the coins outpace the cost of electricity gamers are up shit creek and the only option they have is pay to play or move to low end hardware that doesn't mine.

odditory said:
People keep making these posts fantasizing about some magical flood of cheap GPU's. Problem is, miners will buy nextgen GPU's, but will not dump lastgen GPU's.

Here's why: Any GPU that earns more than the electricity it costs to run it, is going to remain in place mining. Whether it changes hands between farms or miners doesn't matter - it's still going to be mining. And because Pascal is so damn efficient, the profitability curve on the "approach to zero" (zero = the point at which electricity and revenue break even) is going to have a long tail.
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the problem with that flood of gpus is that they will be fresh out of the mines ran at 100% 24/7 for the length of the warranty
 
AltTabbins said:
This will never happen though. As soon as someone comes up with a better way to mine using specialty equipment, another person will come out with a new coin that benefits from just GPU. That coin will inherently have some kind of value to it since it will be one that people can mine with regular computer hardware. It’s what happened with Bitcoin, and Etherium was introduced. When Eth got saturated and difficult to mine, people moved to new alt coins like Garlic and Raven. As long as people want to mine, there will be a coin for them. GPU mining isn’t going anywhere.
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there is a limit to how many 'alt-coins' there can be before the market saturates and people stop dumping money into crypto. I think we are already seeing that point, personally. Alt-coins, me toos, and scam coins, hundreds, if not thousands of ICOs, are IMO, killing the utility, and realworld value perception of crypto currency. Consolidation will happen, and IS happening.
 
Archaea said:
there is a limit to how many 'alt-coins' there can be before the market saturates and people stop dumping money into crypto. I think we are already seeing that point, personally. Alt-coins, me toos, and scam coins, hundreds, if not thousands of ICOs, are IMO, killing the utility, and realworld value perception of crypto currency. Consolidation will happen, and IS happening.
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Nah, people will take to 1 or 2 of them and the rest will disappear into obscurity. People want a coin, the community will cling to those.
 
Lunas said:
which means for as long as the value of the coins outpace the cost of electricity gamers are up shit creek and the only option they have is pay to play or move to low end hardware that doesn't mine.

the problem with that flood of gpus is that they will be fresh out of the mines ran at 100% 24/7 for the length of the warranty
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Both of these statements are as wrong as they are right...

You can still game just fine with a 980, but it isn't very profitable to mine with at this point. They make 30 cents a day now.
https://www.nicehash.com/profitabil...a22=0.54;a23=0.18;a24=312.12;a25=0.65;a26=8.8

The increased hashrate of the next generation cards makes the previous generation cards drop in production because of the ever increasing difficulty increases. So while a miner might not find a 980 very lucrative, a gamer sure might.
Miners with multiple cards rarely run the cards at 100%. More like 65-75%. I've mined with upwards of 50-60 cards. When I started out as a complete newbie miner last summer, I ran the first couple three cards I had at 100% for a very brief while (like a week or two) -- didn't take me long to tinker and figure out I actually got higher hash rates, and paid less for electricity if I throttled power target back to 65-75% --- because they don't thermal throttle, and with a RAM and Core overclock at 65-75% voltage I can still get at least stock and often higher hashing speeds than stock and use 25-35% less electricity. So win-win-win. Anyone mining at 100% power target with many cards likely has commercial server room level cooling ability in their mining facility and dirt cheap/or free power --- or a new, inexperienced hobbyist, who will come around. Afterall - it's pretty much just more profitable to mine at 65-75% power target with an overclock -- and since the name of the crypto-mining game is profit...
 
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Right now, as of today's numbers, my 1080Ti's are making about 3x's what they cost in electricity, and I live in an area with fairly inexpensive electricity.

That's the worst it's been since I started in June 2017. In contrast, the best I've seen about 24x's what electricity costs (December 2017/January 2018 timeframe)



I will stop mining when they go below break even for electricity costs - as will most people. That breakeven point varies to miners based on their own area's electricity cost. To some people in some areas they've already hit the point where it's no longer profitable. I'm not sure you'll see some massive exodus all at once unless crypto completely tanks all together (doubtful).

you can see how profitability changes based on power cost, even with the beast 1080TI easily enough (remember these numbers don't include facility or cooling costs - they are just profit and electricity) When Ampere releases difficulty will increase for everyone as those cards join in the mix - further reducing Pascal's profitability.

6 cents per kwh
https://www.nicehash.com/profitabil...;a24=630;a25=1.76;a26=16.2;a27=2.96;a28=6.978

10 cents per kwh
https://www.nicehash.com/profitabil...;a24=630;a25=1.76;a26=16.2;a27=2.96;a28=6.978

14 cents per kwh
https://www.nicehash.com/profitabil...;a24=630;a25=1.76;a26=16.2;a27=2.96;a28=6.978


Europe ~ 30 cents per kwh (basically no longer profitable)
https://www.nicehash.com/profitabil...;a24=630;a25=1.76;a26=16.2;a27=2.96;a28=6.978
 
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AltTabbins said:
Nah, people will take to 1 or 2 of them and the rest will disappear into obscurity. People want a coin, the community will cling to those.
Click to expand...

Think how different the landscape would be if there was only 1, 2 or 3 cryptos to choose from for investment, utility purposes.

IE if there was nothing but bitcoin. It would have taken the world by storm. A single coin would be worth what? $45,000? If crypto markets are ~750 billion dollars --- (January 2018 estimate I found in a quick websearch), and there are 17,000,000 bitcoins mined then a single bitcoin would be worth ~$45,000.
 
Archaea said:
Both of these statements are as wrong as they are right...

You can still game just fine with a 980, but it isn't very profitable to mine with at this point. They make 30 cents a day now.
https://www.nicehash.com/profitabil...a22=0.54;a23=0.18;a24=312.12;a25=0.65;a26=8.8

The increased hashrate of the next generation cards makes the previous generation cards drop in production because of the ever increasing difficulty increases. So while a miner might not find a 980 very lucrative, a gamer sure might.
Miners with multiple cards rarely run the cards at 100%. More like 65-75%. I've mined with upwards of 50-60 cards. When I started out as a complete newbie miner last summer, I ran the first couple three cards I had at 100% for a very brief while (like a week or two) -- didn't take me long to tinker and figure out I actually got higher hash rates, and paid less for electricity if I throttled power target back to 65-75% --- because they don't thermal throttle, and with a RAM and Core overclock at 65-75% voltage I can still get at least stock and often higher hashing speeds than stock and use 25-35% less electricity. So win-win-win. Anyone mining at 100% power target either has exceptional cooling ability in their facility, or dirt cheap/or free power.
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you are right the 980 is still good for gaming but number 1 complaint i see is about availability and price of current gen few complaints about having to stick with an older card...
 
Given the high barrier to entry into the GPU Market for manufacturers, we'll be lucky to see a new generation of GPUs before 2019/2020.

What's the spending time and money developing new technology when you can't produce enough current gen products to satisfy consumer demand?
 
GPU production and development are not as closely related as you make it seem. AMD and Nvidia are fabless.
 
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