Some bad news

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_mockingbird

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I have some bad news

If you haven't already, you probably won't be able to buy standalone Radeon RX Vega 56/64 for $399/$499 EVER.

RTG is not even shipping out any standalone cards anymore.

Even at the inflated prices, RTG is losing money with every Radeon RX Vega 56/64 sold.

RTG hasn't ramp up production of Radeon RX Vega 56/64 since RTG is losing money on the product.

In fact, AMD is currently working on a plan to slowly phrase out Radeon RX Vega 56/64 without tanking its stock.

RTG has temporary hated development of Navi.

Lisa Su has instead redirected the team's effort to optimize Vega for Raven Ridge

In particular, the team is spending a lot of effort trying to tame Vega's appetite.
 
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Interesting news... source? That said, Vega doesn't seem bad... just maybe needs a price drop.
 
This would explain the relatively shitty bundles...
They're basically recouping cost.

If this is all real and they've halted Navi, then that's very interesting indeed and would time with Raja getting the 'sabbatical' well.
 
This is alarming, but with an absence of any credible source(s), I can't take it seriously. While the claims seem to fit the circumstances, I'd advise anyone to take this with a metric ton of salt before until we see some proof.
 
Looks its Oct already, its been what 1 month now since launch still don't see much stock of Vega......

Something up, first off no manufacturer will ever go into mass product without knowing all parts of the product are also ready for mass production. Specially since this particular product the components are expensive.

So anyone want to guess why AMD is fucking up so bad with this launch?

And Navi, is sure going to have a tough time when it comes out, reaching Pascal's perf/watt would be pretty much the best it could do.... Yeah Pascal is a full generation ahead of Vega when it comes to that metric. So Navi would need to leap frog (200% in perf/watt to reach Volta)

Is anyone here even remotely aware of how much of a possibility that is? That is 0% chance period. Anyone want to ask AMD what they think about a 200% increase in perf/watt over a generation? Do we even need an answer?

edit:typo
 
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rgMekanic said:
Thats a lot of bold claims with no source
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Well, I will put it this way:

If you look at what've said on AnandTech and here over the past year, you would find it to be fairly accurate.

I've talked about Vega's performance, it's manufacturing cost, the delay of the product beyond the announced release date, and Raja getting the boot.
 
Sources would be good.

Raven Ridge is already a done deal. They can optimize drivers of course but that helps any Vega part.

Silicon at this point is final with maybe minor stepping changes. Otherwise it will be very late and they'll lose OEMs since they need final specs for laptop designs
 
_mockingbird said:
Well, I will put it this way:

If you look at what've said on AnandTech and here over the past year, you would find it to be fairly accurate.

I've talked about Vega's performance, it's manufacturing cost, the delay of the product beyond the announced release date, and Raja getting the boot.
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At least that part is clear you are your own source , congratulations :)
 
If all of it is true, why would they halt Navi development when they need a new product ASAP?
 
There is no way Navi will come out before end of 2018, just impossible if on 7nm, now if Navi is taped out as AMD has been saying it is or will be soon. They can't do much work till the node is fully mass production ready.
 
_mockingbird said:
I have some bad news

If you haven't already, you probably won't be able to buy standalone Radeon RX Vega 56/64 for $399/$499 EVER.

RTG is not even shipping out any standalone cards anymore.

Even at the inflated prices, RTG is losing money with every Radeon RX Vega 56/64 sold.

RTG has no plan to ramp up production of Radeon RX Vega 56/64 since RTG is losing money on the product.

In fact, AMD is currently working on a plan to slowly phrase out Radeon RX Vega 56/64 without tanking its stock.

RTG has temporary hated development of Navi.

Lisa Su has instead redirected the team's effort to optimize Vega for Raven Ridge

In particular, the team is spending a lot of effort trying to tame Vega's appetite.
Click to expand...
I have some bad news: I don't believe you.
 
razor1 said:
There is no way Navi will come out before end of 2018, just impossible if on 7nm, now if Navi is taped out as AMD has been saying it is or will be soon. They can't do much work till the node is fully mass production ready.
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12nm refreshes are incoming 7nm is 2019. so umm topic lock since obvious troll is obvious troll
 
AMD said they will be using 12nm refreshes of current GPU's, in 2017! and its only 10% improvement over current 16nm. That isn't going to help in the GPU wars at all.

Mind you this is AMD's presentation that came out late last month, and there was no talk about Vega on 12nm LPP before this. So either AMD has gone this route in the interim as a stop gap, which looks likely, but doesn't speak well to Vega gen 2 if they don't drop GCN as an architecture. We can already see it has so many bottlenecks its getting held back in multiple ways.

12nm @ TSMC is nV only, hence the NV at the end of the node name.
 
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Meeho said:
If all of it is true, why would they halt Navi development when they need a new product ASAP?
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AMD is coming to realize that the architecture is reaching the end of its useful potential.

It's similar to the moment after Piledriver's release when AMD realized that it needs something fundamentally different.

AMD basically don't want to keep throwing good money after bad.
 
razor1 said:
AMD said they will be using 12nm refreshes of current GPU's, in 2017! and its only 10% improvement over current 16nm. That isn't going to help in the GPU wars at all.

Mind you this is AMD's presentation that came out late last month, and there was no talk about Vega on 12nm LPP before this. So either AMD has gone this route in the interim as a stop gap, which looks likely, but doesn't speak well to Vega gen 2 if they don't drop GCN as an architecture. We can already see it has so many bottlenecks its getting held back in multiple ways.

12nm @ TSMC is nV only, hence the NV at the end of the node name.
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Everybody is moving to 12nm except intel and mobile soc makers.
 
maxius said:
Everybody is moving to 12nm except intel and mobile soc makers.
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Yes but this was a fundamental change in their road map, prior to last months announcement there has been no indication of AMD going 12nm for Vega. Which is a big change for them. I don't expect much architectural changes again for this Gen 2 Vega...... not enough time. Vega was supposed to be the biggest architectural change in GCN since GCN first started and that shows up as almost no change, same bottlenecks and more bottlenecks have appeared because games/apps have evolved.

Gen 2 Vega could just be mid range chips/ow end or Vega 20 (not for consumer but for HPC) too for all we know.
 
_mockingbird said:
AMD is coming to realize that the architecture is reaching the end of its useful potential.

It's similar to the moment after Piledriver's release when AMD realized that it needs something fundamentally different.

AMD basically don't want to keep throwing good money after bad.
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They should have realized this last gen not now ;)

I really think they knew they have to pool up their R&D for Navi and let GCN die a slow and painful death. Everything points to that when Fiji was released , every single GCN architecture (gen) since 7xxx series have been loosing ground with perf/watt. 2xx series were slightly behind, 3xx and Fiji, farther behind, Polaris and Vega, even farther behind. Now we are looking at Volta with x2 the perf/watt over Pascal against Vega 2.0 with a node change that gives 10% more performance at the same wattage? Yeah bad as it is right now, its going to get much much worse. The only way this will go well for AMD is if nV miraculously delays or doesn't release Volta for consumers early next year, otherwise what we saw with Vega/Polaris vs Pascal, is nothing, even Maxwell and Pascal's 1 year difference in release, which caused a major shift in market share, won't show as much of a hit as this hit will cause that 25%-30% market share AMD graphics has right now, will go down to less than 15%, and at that point, no OEM will even consider AMD products even if they come out with a decent product a year down the road.

Just have to look back at the FX series, it took time before AMD started to gain market share and OEM contracts again, and that is because nV locked the OEM's down with the gf 4's and also were able to convince OEM's to wait for their FX line.

Even with the pool up its still hard to catch up, cause we are looking at as I stated before a 200% improvement gen to gen of perf/watt. I can see AMD hitting 100%, even that is hard to do, but possible if things line up right. 200%, that is fairy tale land.
 
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Well, I guess we just wait and see if this is true. It's no worse than the fanbois worshipping WTFtech articles and using them as reference materials.
 
I want to clarify the nature of my source.

He is on the RTG team, but he isn't the one doing hardware/software development.

Rather, he works with developers to optimize their software (games) for AMD microarchitecture (Polaris/Vega).

For example, he is working with developers to include Rapid Packed Math in their games.

I am not at liberty to disclose more than that.
 
if they realized it now (recently) they are more than screwed.

Also with Vega being on 12nm, or updated to, they have already been working in that direction for quite some time, I think they knew they had to keep going for a while longer with GCN. I don't think its that they don't have confidence with Navi, Navi is what it will be its close to tape out as it is.

Limited resources AMD is probably just shifting employees over to Vega 2.0 cause Navi is so far down the road its not needed to work full time or have full teams on it.
 
_mockingbird said:
I want to clarify the nature of my source.

He is on the RTG team, but he isn't the one doing hardware/software development.

Rather, he works with developers to optimize their software (games) for AMD microarchitecture (Polaris/Vega).

For example, he is working with developers to include Rapid Packed Math in their games.

I am not at liberty to disclose more than that.
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So this comes from AMD's devrel team?
 
ManofGod said:
Well, I can confirm I do not believe you. :rolleyes:
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Everything he stated makes sense other than AMD changing directions right now from Navi because of how the product is (its even too early for AMD to know what the fab process will give them for final products, they can estimate it pretty close though), they would have changed direction months ago (6 months to a year ago). Now for an employee that is on the dev side of things (software), what they see are the ramifications of what was decided long ago, things don't happen overnight when talking about things like this. It might seem that way form some one on the outskirts of the product development cycle though.

Its like creating an application then having plugin teams making plugins and updates to the plugins. The core application team has their own time lines for feature implementation, the plugin team will make modifications on their plugin based on their own timelines and if its feasible based on the core application feature set. So a QA guy for the plugin will see the plugin changes coming in week to week, but from an application point of view that time line to add that certain flexibility or feature that is needed for the specific task of plugin could have taken a month or two vs the week or two add in the new feature in the plugin.

For the QA guys point of view everything is on a week to week basis but in reality it took much longer to add that feature in.

So think of the QA guy as AMD software dev for games, the plugin team as the engineers, and the core application guys as AMD's management.

And come on when have we last seen 399 Vega 56's or 499 Vega 64's? its been a month already, guess we can give them a few more weeks, one more month to see how it pans out?

Can't really deny something is up right now....pun intended.

Oh added to the fact it looks like Raja will step down to another position in RTG, its extremely likely AMD has a completely different direction than what he was envisioning. That direction, hard to say, or guess, but its different than what they had before, cause what they had before it is not working.

Remember when I think it was Kyle, which I also agreed upon at the time, it looked like Raja did a power play to take the graphics division, and at the time Raja had the influence and credibility, AMD was not making good products that were competitive and they were delayed in release schedules, so he used that to influence board members to get his way, since he had the GPU engineering experience he was more trust worthy than Lisa Sue, but with RTG failing to delivered again with Vega, and Lisa Sue delivering with Ryzen, tables have turned.
 
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Pieter3dnow said:
The problem with the statement is not that it without a source but the whole wind up. If it is not credible you claim you are not the source when you asked for a source you can make anything up because basically I (or anyone) could be his source on any forum because what is a verifiable source these days with the amount of BS roaming/echoing on the internet.

Then if the source is not something which any one can verify because there is a rule in journalism one source is no source.

You make up an unlikely source someone which is not only doubtful but unlikely. The person that shot themselves in the foot by volunteering this information to some cry babies from Anandtech is making his own work impossible by disclosing the information because IF there is such a position on the software development team that AMD has I would expect none to a few would have any of this information ..
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Yes yes yes, and everything we have see how RTG has done with Vega and Polaris, have been tip top the best right?

We all can see how RTG fucked up from the start and it all starts with a bad architecture. Its very doubtful they want to step away from the high end again? Its going to happen just like what happened after the r600, but this time its worse they have even less market share, if you remember with the r600 and phenom processors (soon to be BD) how much AMD was in the red? Even though with the r600 line up they still had 35% market share....... And anyone thinking their CPU division will hold up the R&D for their GPU division keep dreaming, cause they still need to focus on Zen + and Zen 2.

What do you expect them to do when they have less GPU market share now and Vega costs more to make than the r600?

Lets throw logic out the window and just talk about the guy posting right?

I don't even care if the guy made this stuff up, you know why? Cause its fuckin logical and we can see how AMD has changed direction last month.

Still waiting on those 399 and 499 standalone cards.

What did I say about those?

Not going to come back?

What did Gibbo say?

limited launch rebates for stand alone products and special e-tailers? We have seen the pack deals come and go out of stock but none of the stand alone cards...... Why is it because the stand alone cards are just not allocated? Too much demand, prices have stabilized on the pack cards, so its not demand that is causing anything anymore.....

How many people here said it was purely a supply issue that AMD can't make enough cards?

No they can make the cards, they just don't want to. They are making no money at those prices with Vega, they want to sell them at the pack prices but can't as a stand alone product.

Too many things have pointed to this.

Even if the packaging was a problem for AIB's, why the hell didn't they have a GPU to design their boards till just a couple of months or three ago?

Does that even make sense?

You would think AMD would get sample Vega's in AIB partners hands 6 months ago or a year ago right?

Everything they have done, has been focused on one thing, "lets not sell Vega in consumer products"

Back to the packaging, did Fiji have the same packaging issues?

I don't remember AIB's complaining about Fury custom cards and its packaging?

BTW the software dev team will need to know what the hardware teams are working on, they need to plan for who will be doing what in the future too, its not like one day they come it and all of sudden they have to stop working on one project and go to something else. There will be meetings with higher ups talking about which teams and who will be one the teams and why they are changing direction. Having said that they just won't be told till later on after the hardware team already shifted their focus.

keep this in mind how much money and effort nV put into their software team and reduced their hardware teams spending after the launch of the FX? They shifted all their focus to their next gen chip and left a skeleton crew for the FX refresh. And they did a butt load of software team spending. Cause that is all they can do.

And now the kicker

Does anyone here want to see AMD/RTG keep going down the road they have been since GCN's first chip?

Lets have a show of hands here people.........
 
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Raja should have scrapped Polaris and Vega and focused on Navi and had a "Ryzen" moment when the time was right. I wouldn't be surprised if RTG is dissolved and sold at this point.
 
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