I remember this guy, he was helping people with ****ty ISP-provided routers in europe. Sad to see him hit bad timing with his project. Good example of how this affects other smaller businesses.
Delivery dates of 2027 and 2031...
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DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled
- Thread starter erek
- Start date
I remember this guy, he was helping people with ****ty ISP-provided routers in europe. Sad to see him hit bad timing with his project. Good example of how this affects other smaller businesses.
Delivery dates of 2027 and 2031...
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“SK hynix Explores US Fab Options to Keep Memory Prices Under Control
by Nomad76 Today, 08:41 Discuss (1 Comment)SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won has come out with unusually direct comments on memory pricing, calling current semiconductor prices "abnormally high" and warning that the situation risks creating what he termed "chipflation", where rising chip costs push up finished product prices for consumers. Speaking at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry Summer Forum in Jeju on July 15, Chey argued that supply needs to increase even if it means lower margins for semiconductor companies. His reasoning: AI companies can absorb higher costs, but PC and smartphone makers have a limited ability to pass those costs on to individual consumers. If prices keep climbing, the market shrinks and new players move in, an outcome he sees as bad for the South Korean semiconductor industry in the long term. The struggle is real, as is the threat from new competitors, as shortages at Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have forced major PC OEMs to lock in DRAM supply deals with the Chinese memory producer CXMT.
On the supply side, the picture doesn't look like it's getting better soon. Chey predicted AI semiconductor demand could surge 60-100% next year, while production from major suppliers will not increase significantly. Since AI-related demand now accounts for over half the total semiconductor market, he expects overall demand to rise by at least 50-60% against a supply that is not keeping pace. "No company is significantly increasing supply next year; it's so dire I don't know if I should describe it as chaotic," he said. According to The Chosun Daily, Chey confirmed that SK hynix is looking at building a semiconductor factory in the United States. These plans could significantly expand SK hynix's US footprint. The company is already investing approximately $4 billion to build advanced packaging R&D facilities and HBM production lines in West Lafayette, Indiana. Construction began in 2026 and the site is scheduled to be operational by the second half of 2028. However, he also said that the company is currently looking for possible locations globally, prioritizing sites based on speed, scale and feasibility. No specific location or timeline was given.“
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That's why I upgraded to an iPhone 17 from a 14 last week. Figured I might as well upgrade now before they jack the prices up. I can't see the iPhone 18 line being anywhere near current pricing also.
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“Chinese memory maker CXMT has reportedly seen its DRAM capacity booked through 2027
As PC OEMs and hardware companies look to Chinese memory manufacturer CXMT to secure supply, this alternate source is also reaching its capacity.“https://www.tweaktown.com/news/1127...-dram-capacity-booked-through-2027/index.html
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“DDR5 Prices Surge 7% in July, Reaching New Highs
by AleksandarK Today, 04:50 Discuss (3 Comments)DDR5 pricing in Germany has been picking up pace again, according to the latest report by 3D Center. Unfortunately, this July has seen a 7% monthly price increase for DDR5 kits, on top of the already elevated prices, pushing DDR5 to new all-time highs. Despite stagnation between February and slight price decreases in March and June, July has continued the upward trend, now placing the average cost of DDR5 memory at a 448% increase over the prices recorded back in July 2025. In a single year, prices have more than quadrupled, mostly driven by massive price hikes between October 2025 and January 2026. PC enthusiasts have already faced significant affordability issues due to these price hikes, and there doesn't seem to be an end to this trend.
Even ADATA's Chairman, Chen Li-bai, suggested that it might take another 10 years for the DRAM supply chain to stabilize. This is a grim outlook for PC DIY enthusiasts who want to build their own PCs or make upgrades, as DRAM is driving up the prices of GPUs as well as DDR5 memory kits. Only after 2030 might there be some preliminary estimations on whether the demand for more DRAM, more NAND Flash, and more computing power will be sustained until 2040 or 2050. For now, we are bracing for the impact of sustained price hikes, which have become the new norm for months.”
It would take a lot of market manipulation to keep the ai bubble going for another 10 years.
Yeah I was going to say that guy needs to shut the fuck up He's a piece of shit lying out of his fucking teeth And honestly I think they all are Stupid cocksuckers Oh it's going to take five years oh Ten Years oh man it price is never going down fuck you asshole All lying sons of bitches I hate every last one of them 10 years my ass What a crock of shit
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- Dec 18, 2006
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yep, $380 WD drives i got April 2025 going for $1,100 todayInclude HDDs too please.
There is many different expending bubble on different tier, the one around AI capable hardware coming from high compute demand could be the safest to continue for a long time (as the better and cheaper the model get, the higher the demand for them tend to become).
Fable&5.6 are already so good, that demand for a little bit better models, but way cheaper, better tooling around and going at 1000 token per second risk to be giant and the demand and readiness to pay a lot to have any intelligence edge over that will also be great in some domain.
I wonder how much you must despise the people we known for a fact were lying repeating in a loop that the bubble is about to pop soon since 2023...
Gideon
Supreme [H]ardness
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Tell me how you really feel. In the end it doesn't matter what anyone says. Companies not buying everything made will change the prices.
I have no issue with AI continuing to exist in the future as it's a useful tool and will eventually be used for a lot of things. I just think the market is currently very overheated, with costs far exceeding profits, and promises being made that can't be kept on the timeline they claim. If you're making bank off the AI market, great. Just don't be the guy left holding the bag when reality comes home to roost.
Depend where in the stack, part of the market (say a Micron evaluation or Nvidia evaluation on the stock market) are quite low versus profits.
Anthropic q3 seem to be 1 billion in profit (because they cannot buy-rent enough compute to spend all their revenues and able to get 70-80% margin on inference still), making 2 profitables quarter in a row for them despite their goals to spend has much as they can and not be profitable yet.
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-over-1b-the
People do claim that claude users does not get their API cost worth in value, but that a giant group of ~10+ millions users-companies account and hundreds of thousands company with an API account decide otherwise every week and they should know the best, while they use anecdote to support that claim.
M76
[H]F Junkie
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If AI wasn't a bubble memory makers would increase the supply instead of price fixing. Increasing the supply would accelerate the collapse of the bubble. They want to ride it to the bitter end, them and everyone involved.
They are ?
They are spending on capacity at unprecedented level, 60-70 billions issh in capex in 2026 alone and expected to grow in 2027.
And because of HBM lower yield, to increase shipped bits like they are you need to do a lot more wafers.
If the notion that memory maker margin and those volume was not believed by wallstreet to be a bubble, Micron would not be that incredibly cheap right now is right, but like Nvidia shown who knows how long ridiculous margin can go on when it is really hard to do what you do...
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I saw that. Insane.
M76
[H]F Junkie
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I'm not sure I can trust those forecasts. They seem to be cutting DRAM capacity in favor of HBM, which is a lower margin segment. Anyone who would focus on the consumer DRAM segment could sweep the market. It makes no sense that they all focus on HBM and not DRAM unless they are colluding to keep consumer DRAM prices sky high.
There's a chart here on memory prices. Looks like we stalled for a while then started up again. I don't agree with the headline though because the prices were just reaching the last highs.
https://www.techpowerup.com/350920/ddr5-prices-surge-7-in-july-reaching-new-highs
https://www.techpowerup.com/350920/ddr5-prices-surge-7-in-july-reaching-new-highs
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You guys see this dire prediction...?
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...says-dram-shortage-will-last-another-10-years
When I see stuff like this it makes me sick. Please tell me this nightmare will not drag on forever...
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...says-dram-shortage-will-last-another-10-years
When I see stuff like this it makes me sick. Please tell me this nightmare will not drag on forever...
Out of curiosity (and ironically I guess) I asked Gemini for similar precedents in the past:
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The issue is that PC's have never really been "cheap". They just became affordable again between mining booms and storage/memory price fixing schemes. We had a couple months of affordability where video cards dropped to MSRP (not cheaper) and RAM was abundant the prices were low on the previous generation of DDR4 that was being phased out and DDR5 had just started to enter into the affordable range ... Then, within a couple months the consumer market shit the bed.
What's happening now is price fixing, artificially created scarcity (vendors eliminated their consumer lines even in the face of all time high profitability, like crucial), AI boom madness ... much of it is under governmentally directed initiatives.
AI will not answer this one with any level of accuracy as it is incapable of telling the truth. Or it's being actively directed to NOT tell the truth.
When I see articles like the one from the A-Data Exec, it's abundantly clear that all the major memory vendors have been on the same page the entire time. A-Data stockpiled RAM and silicon right before all this went down. Looked like they were hoarding billions in hardware... I would imagine they have now turned around and started selling that off for insane gains.
With all of this is anti consumer stuff going on, makes me wonder how long personal computing will survive. I would imagine the directive is for us to own nothing and for us to lease computers in the cloud from dumb terminals at home.
The whole Sony thing about eliminating hard media is a nothing burger. The argument should be about DRM free software. You can have all the physical media you want to, but if it's tied to a specific platform or you're just buying a placeholder for a digital key, it's smoke and mirrors anyway. Actual, DRM free software should be all we care about. Stuff we pay for and legitimately own that we can use on any platform or at least on the platform we purchased it on without someone telling us they're wiping their database and shutting down their game servers and we are losing our games/applications.
I don't know if any of that made any sense at all... It just kinda all poured out of me at once. I feel like the personal computing industry will never be the same again (if it survives at all). Makes me wonder if my current "high" end* rig will be my last. If the next one is 1/4 of a car payment .... I will either sit on the money or buy the car.
*I missed the bus on the DDR5 RAM purchase and that essentially killed any hope of upgrading my rig for the foreseeable future
What's happening now is price fixing, artificially created scarcity (vendors eliminated their consumer lines even in the face of all time high profitability, like crucial), AI boom madness ... much of it is under governmentally directed initiatives.
AI will not answer this one with any level of accuracy as it is incapable of telling the truth. Or it's being actively directed to NOT tell the truth.
When I see articles like the one from the A-Data Exec, it's abundantly clear that all the major memory vendors have been on the same page the entire time. A-Data stockpiled RAM and silicon right before all this went down. Looked like they were hoarding billions in hardware... I would imagine they have now turned around and started selling that off for insane gains.
With all of this is anti consumer stuff going on, makes me wonder how long personal computing will survive. I would imagine the directive is for us to own nothing and for us to lease computers in the cloud from dumb terminals at home.
The whole Sony thing about eliminating hard media is a nothing burger. The argument should be about DRM free software. You can have all the physical media you want to, but if it's tied to a specific platform or you're just buying a placeholder for a digital key, it's smoke and mirrors anyway. Actual, DRM free software should be all we care about. Stuff we pay for and legitimately own that we can use on any platform or at least on the platform we purchased it on without someone telling us they're wiping their database and shutting down their game servers and we are losing our games/applications.
I don't know if any of that made any sense at all... It just kinda all poured out of me at once. I feel like the personal computing industry will never be the same again (if it survives at all). Makes me wonder if my current "high" end* rig will be my last. If the next one is 1/4 of a car payment .... I will either sit on the money or buy the car.
*I missed the bus on the DDR5 RAM purchase and that essentially killed any hope of upgrading my rig for the foreseeable future
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that seem a misread to me, Micron was able to sell dram to other rammaker they could make a lot of money without having all the trouble that come with it and concentrate on where they had high margin, making dram, that not creating scarcity if anything the people able to make dram concentrating on making it instead of dealing with reseller-customer-warranty-marketing and so on will create more of it not less.
Micron MCBU (consumer type of ram) business went from 11-12 billions before the 2023 crash back to 12 billion in 2024 and will triple in 2026 for 36-38 billions, the not loosing time and effort at marketing and direct consumer relationship versus selling module direct to corsair and others is not an issue at all for the consumer supply.
Think a bit like AMD not having a reference-AMD card for the RDNA 4, that not something that need to have the first importance for the amount of RDNA 4 GPU in the fields, as long as OEM demand for every RDNA 4 bom kit are made is high enough to use all of them you end up with the same and that is certainly the case for dram chip going into ram kit.
There seem to be a double discourse that datacenter are creating a list of issues but they are not being built at all at the same time. (is it artificial or there is an actual AI boom... there is a limit on how much it can be both)..
They have been incredibly cheap and still are, that why there is like 2 pc per household in the advanced world (1.2-1.4 billion working units, despite how popular phone got and replaced a lot of their use), they start at $130 on bestbuy.com:
https://www.bestbuy.com/site/searchpage.jsp?browsedCategory=pcmcat143400050013&id=pcat17071&sp=Price-Low-To-High&st=categoryid$pcmcat143400050013
easy exercise for a notion of how cheap they are.... how many users here has perfectly fine working PC they do not use that much (or at all) and do not go into the trouble to resale, find side projects for... one for the tv, one for the beadroom, one for the office and a Laptop over it, because of how cheap they are, outside top of the line affair they have been cheap, often you can find them for free-giving down since the 00s.
An good enough computer to use the web and do most of the work except sim-cad package was expensive in the 90s, but as not been in a very long time.
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That's subjective and relative (and dependent on boom-bust cycles/peaks and valleys).
Memory manufactures had their worst financial downturn in 2022-2023. Memory prices were dirt-cheap-low in 2023.
You're lamenting the days you remember when they were cheap right before you say they were never cheap????
They've been 'cheap' since the 90s (while still subjected to said peaks and valleys/boom-bust cycles)
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-nov-17-fi-54788-story.html
I worked in retail PC sales back in the mid to late 90's and while that is all true, every retailer was absolutely cleaning up in the high margin accessories sold along with those PC's. The printer was also low margin so we would make sure to sell a printer cable, paper extra ink jet cartridges along with the surge protector, mouse pad and software with all PC sales. Believe me, they were absolutely not hurting due to inexpensive PCs during that time. Packard Bell, Compaq, HP, e-Machines etc...
Right but the point is the PCs themselves were 'cheap' (for as cheap as $1k was back then to people - for a computer) - and rebates and such could make the cheaper emachines etc PC even free
Even in the 201x's PCs and parts were cheap.
I'm very skeptical of it lasting more than about 5 years, and wouldn't be surprised if it ends a year or two sooner.
The decade of shortages prediction is from equally long number goes up predictions for building AI data centers. The global economy isn't big enough to sustain that even if you believe the AI companies will eat 100% of it. Todays buildout is already running into delays and capacity limitations that could force a slowdown of growth even if the AI sellers are able to raise prices 10x to cover continued building without user revolt and their biggest customers switching to tokemmisering.
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I think those comments about the shortages lasting that long... are done on "purpose"... they cause panic buying...etc... they're all in on the f'ing grift....
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mullet
2[H]4U
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- Aug 19, 2004
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I remember the days we just fought over toilet paper. Good times.
I actually think those times were worse than now, just IMO
Don't like paying more than not - but items going out of stock ASAP only for scalpers to then put them up on ebay at heavily inflated prices and for even those to sell out quickly - meaning you didn't even have the option of buying at MSRP from official sources or even inflated prices from scalpers often - pissed me off more than just 'it's in stock from official sources just at heavily inflated prices'
Now we're just dealing with the 'AI boom' inflating the prices - but then it was crypto mining/supply chain constraint/work from home boom/free stimulus money affecting everything from pricing to availability from 100 different angles
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Well even if he is right (and I don't think he is), he is missing an important part of this. Namely that newer chips will give better performance per watt, and all the older hardware will be getting replaced at approximately the same time meaning cheap used parts. Used hardware is the space I have been operating for many years anyways, so this is fine to me. Even if I can afford retail prices, I have poor brain and I am mentally pegged to X value for parts and I won't pay more. So I am waiting, and one way or another there is an affordable upgrade path that will open up.
Will it though? A lot of data center parts aren't in standard pcie card form factor. Even if a cheap adapter is available (and nothing about pcie5 signalling is cheap); will they even have 1 video out like some mining only cards from a decade ago or nothing at all?
The problem with that is a vast majority of this is HBM memory baked into the AI chip package - unless you're running water cooled, power hungry, data center level equipment at home (this is [H] so who knows, more power to you if so
) - a collapse or even just replacement cycle won't create the amount of available (or useable) used gear people are thinking.- Joined
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I don't know about you, but the a100 is nearing my price range and when the h200 drops to 4k-ish effing yes I will buy one!!! That is a LOT OF FP64 compute!!!!The problem with that is a vast majority of this is HBM memory baked into the AI chip package - unless you're running water cooled, power hungry, data center level equipment at home (this is [H] so who knows, more power to you if so
Yeah I have no need/desire to run local AI yet so call me when it can run Crysis
I have no need for this either - but it would be fun for me to run/try simulations rather than "AI" - like world/fluid/weather/space simulations
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I can't tell from your post or not, but FP64 is kind of the opposite direction from AI. CFD, FEA, Physics simulations are what you need FP64 for in order to maintain stable matrices in solvers.I have no need for this either - but it would be fun for me to run/try simulations rather than "AI" - like world/fluid/weather/space simulations
The FP64 is what got me thinking of simulations - just A100 can also do AI/FP16/INT8 - and most of the time here everyone is thinking/discussing AI, why I mentioned that
Edit: Also I am in no way starting with a A100 for this 'play test' still
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“NVIDIA Reportedly Raises GDDR6 and GDDR7 Memory Kit Prices for RTX GPUs
by Nomad76 Today, 10:00 Discuss (2 Comments)NVIDIA has reportedly notified its add-in card partners of another GPU kit price increase, this time covering both GDDR7 and GDDR6 memory. This means the raise isn't limited to current Blackwell cards and could affect older GeForce products still using GDDR6 as well. The report comes from BenchLife via VideoCardz and follows a similar price adjustment for the RTX 5090 and RTX 5090D V2 back in May. NVIDIA supplies board partners with GPU and VRAM bundled together as a kit, so when memory costs go up, AIBs have little choice but to pass that along to retail pricing. BenchLife notes that partners are also seeing higher costs for coolers, PCBs, and packaging on top of the memory increases, though those secondary cost pressures are described as smaller than the memory-related ones.
The RTX 50 SUPER series is also affected by this. We've previously reported that those cards are on hold partly due to the cost of 3 GB GDDR7 modules. Inside sources say that each of those GDDR7 modules costs about $60-$70, roughly three times the cost of a 2 GB module at around $20. This adds a significant price premium on SUPER cards since the RTX 5070 SUPER was expected to be upgraded to offer 18 GB, while the RTX 5070 Ti SUPER and RTX 5080 SUPER would each provide 24 GB of GDDR7 memory. GPU prices have already increased 20-30% above where they were not long ago, and this latest round of kit price increases suggests there's more pressure to come. Previous-gen cards that use GDDR6 have been less affected up to now, but that appears to be changing.“
That underrate the global economy size, 118 trillion in nominal (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), way more in PPP, should be around 140 trillion by 2030. If the strangely could be high worker productivity gain observed in the USA since ~2023 to the public become global, could be more than that.
Eat 1% of it and it would be 1.4 trillion a year, current datacenter build out in the world is around 765 billions according to Goldman Sachs, would AI build out reach 2% of gdp globally like Internet infracstructure build out did in the US that would be 2.8 trillion a year, 5-6% like railroads did in their time, 7-9 trillions.
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