NVIDIA GT300 Yields Are Under 2%?

ZenOps said:
I don't think thats even possible unless there is some sort of major design flaw and/or they had a earthquake when they were making them.

If true, this is a knockout punch.
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There was a pretty major typhoon in Taiwan last month. I know the company I work at had some things delayed because of it...
 
Dammit, and i really wanted a G300 too! Kyle, your the bearer of bad news not Steve!
 
What's Charlie's e-mail address? I need to send him this.

stupidinternetpolice.jpg
 
is the manufacturing process really that archaic still that they have to make over 400 chips before they can even test them? im thinking around the 20th one that was bad i would say wait, stop......
 
Seeing that R800 is built upon the previous generation, ATI had time to perfect it. They had bad yields too.

I think Nvidia will be suffering from bad yields, but I dont think it would be this bad. They either went with a huge chip, or decided to go the same route as ATI. Either of these combinations will cause problems in the beginning.

I honestly think they went with something radical.

Cant reuse previous architecture since it was reused like 100 times. :D

Cant copy ATI's approach because Nvidia is too good for that.
 
If that is true Kyle, AMD/ATI is going to kill them.

There are many a folder that is waiting for 300 series cards.... Seems like they will wait longer.

 
I don't think is going to be a problem for nvidia because they can rename the G92 core again and sheeples will buy another G92 based card :D
 
JimmiG said:
I guess ATI's small chip strategy has some merit :p

Although if the R800 has 1600 steam processors, it must be a pretty big, complex chip as well. Calling a 2150 million transistor chip "small" doesn't seem right :eek:
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yep finally they did soemthing smart.
 
Post #2
jolle said:
How does he expect anyone to take him seriously when all he does is rave about how bad things are going for all things Nvidia, and gloats about his claims like a 14 year old angry fanboy?
Wouldn´t put much stock in that, if there´s anything to it it´ll prolly come out of a real journalist sooner or later.


Quote:
The translation, as we read it, says there were nine good samples that came back from TSMC from the first hot lot.


So he´s refering to this translation:

Quote:
NVIDIA GT300 is an Engineering sample of nine will be completed in January of this year's fastest 12 to begin shipping in January.

However, copy/paste that text (source) into babelfish japanese -> english and you get this:

Quote:
NVIDIA makes Engineering sample of GT300 COMPLETE in September, with most speed starts of shipment in December of this year.

which obviously reads a bit different..
Now, I obviously havent done "the digging" that he did so..
EDIT: my guess is that the 9 was misstranslated from September, and the 12 from December.
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tvdang7 said:
yep finally they did soemthing smart.
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Give ATI some credit, they've made some pretty stellar cards back in the day, especially when you consider how much smaller they were than Nvidia. R300 anyone?

That said, I don't think 1.7% is true at all - but under 20%? I can definitely see that being true. Nvidia took an awful long time to get the GT216/GT218 cards out, and we don't even know if they scrapped GT212/214... I wouldn't be surprised if they were indeed having process problems (TSMC is only part of the issue... Nvidia still has to design parameters, layers, etc.) but again, I think his numbers are off, but the real numbers probably aren't good
 
Charlie is not the most reliable person to listen to on things Nvidia he has a strong anti Nvidia bias and is not above making up facts about Nvidia.So take thibgs he says with a grain of salt and I'm not sure why any website would link to an article by him when hes been proved wrong so many times.
 
nobody_here said:
is the manufacturing process really that archaic still that they have to make over 400 chips before they can even test them? im thinking around the 20th one that was bad i would say wait, stop......
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They are all made one waffer at a time. So from the first test they succeded 2% of the time.

Hope this makes sence.

Usually the ones in the center are excellent, get worse towards the edges...
With the old socket-a's you could hand pick the ones that would do 2.4Ghz just by looking at them.
 
Kowan said:
Post #2
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Unless you can read Japanese, the translation is going to differ across different translators. Seriously, plugged into 10 different translators, 10 results come out...

Yeah, it's likely he just translated it wrong, but here's some other post:

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1334603&postcount=2123

He's been spot on this entire generation (called RV870 specs long before anyone else did) and he even wrote the 1.67 a day before Charlie did, though he actually meant that sarcastically and he's saying it was close to 10%. Charlie probably copied his number actually...

I'm more inclined to believe that they are indeed at 10%, especially if his narrative of what happened to the GT21x series is indeed true:

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1334958&postcount=2151
 
I think we'll have a better idea once Sept 22nd arrives. If they have working chips, I think they'll try to steal some thunder from AMD.
 
Anyone have the numbers for AMD chips? I haven't heard any terrible news about them.
 
It's on the verge of release.
Anything bad will be bloodily suppressed.

ATi is already sensing blood in the water, so...

They are going to try hard not to screw up.
 
I wasn't buying into it until I saw Kyle post he's heard the same things going around.

This can't end well.
 
jeremyshaw said:
It's on the verge of release.
Anything bad will be bloodily suppressed.

ATi is already sensing blood in the water, so...

They are going to try hard not to screw up.
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Seriously, you aren't going to find the numbers right before the release party!
 
bigdogchris said:
Yields for new designs are always very low. I don't see anything out of the ordinary here. We all knew Nvidia was behind ATI with the next gen. ATI always ships 3-6 months sooner than Nvidia. Then Nvidia ships a card that blows the doors of ATI's high end. What's new here?
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When? The 8800gtx came before the hd2900, the gtx280 before the hd4800. This is the first time ATi has beat nvidia to a launch and I don't know how long.
 
Steve said:
You do know where Charlie used to be, where Faud used to be? So on and so forth? Both are from TheInq for years and a lot of what you read from TheInq that was accurate was written by Charlie. This is a rumor mill post, you know...he said - she said kinda thing.
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The difference being Fuad could (and did) eat crow when he was wrong. Charlie would just ignore it and go onto the next "Nvidia is DOOMED, DOOMED I SAYS!1!1!!!" rant on a webpage.

I actually stopped reading the Inq articles with Charlie's name on the byline. There was no point. AMD/ATI could do no wrong. Nvidia couldn't do anything right and was always just about to go bankrupt or be bought for pennies on the dollar to save it. Nvidia's cards wouldn't come close to ATI's cards. ATI was going to crush Nvidia thoroughly in every game. blah blah blah.

He said that crap for an awful long time, long enough I guess for it to become partially true. ATI (finally) makes a decent card again, not necessarily the fastest (it's situational), but good. However Charlie acted like it was the second coming and that NVIDIA WAS DOOMED!

Meh. Semi-accurate is an overestimation of Charlie's "facts" in most cases. Heck, if Charlie were a stockbroker, I would've fired him. Since he's just a bloggo with an obvious bias (gah could you possibly be more biased?) I just ignore his "reporting."
 
nobody_here said:
is the manufacturing process really that archaic still that they have to make over 400 chips before they can even test them? im thinking around the 20th one that was bad i would say wait, stop......
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Errr, you may want to lean how chips are made before you stick your neck out and get it chopped off... They make that many in a single wafer... geesh
 
If the yields are bad it will take nVidia a LONG time to recover. I guess if nVidia doesn't launch something by November we'll know somethings up by then for sure I would think.
 
How long till we see some real numbers from these cards? My GTX 260 is aging badly enough as is, and my FPS show it.
 
Wow, you could quite literally feel Charlie's distain for NVidia oozing from each and every word of that article. It's not a question of whether he is right or wrong, it's a matter of whether one could trust anything this guy says in the realm of video cards, considering how unabashedly biased he is on the subject.
 
It's quite hard to believe that yield percentage. Sounds really bad. But that informations is again coming from Charlie... It will probably still be some time until we'll see anything concrete.
 
heatlesssun said:
If the yields are bad it will take nVidia a LONG time to recover. I guess if nVidia doesn't launch something by November we'll know somethings up by then for sure I would think.
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By November ? If NV will release anything in Q1 2010 they will be happy.
 
If this is true, with the immenent release of the HD 5870/X2, Nvidia is in trouble. I smell another Radeon 9700 Pro.
 
We will never know what the actual yeilds are for Nvidia's, AMD's or any other manufacture. What we do know is that Nvidia has just received engineering samples and AMD is launching their DX11 part next week.
 
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