Dissappointing Year So Far for AMD

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visaris said:
Look, if you really want to predict AMD's demise, can you at least make a reasonable prediction? Perhaps you can come up with a list of conditions that isn't composed of the one item: "If Intel cuts the price of a single high-end product that is less than 3% of Intel's total production, AMD will BK." I mean, really.... wtf man... I know you can do better than spewing filth like that on the net. You're not that much of a f4nb0y.. are you?
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I'm not a fanboy at all, you're the fanboy obviously.
Calling the Q6600 a high-end part is a joke. There are a lot of faster and more expensive CPUs out there. Sure, none of them are AMD's, but that's not Intels fault.
Don't you realize that with one decent price-cut, Q6600 is actually a budget-CPU (sub-$200 bracket)? And that AMD has depreciated like mad? As said by PXC, they're only worth 11% more as a whole company now, than what they paid for the ATi acquisition not too long ago.
And 3% of production? You realize that they are no different than two regular Core2 Duo cores (which is most of their production)? If Intel wanted, they could just make more MCMs form their Core2 Duo die production. It's not a different product, just a different package.

Ofcourse you don't, you're still in denial, like all the fanboys here. You were in denial when I told you what I saw of AMD's processors so far, and what I would expect at launch... But I was spot-on (ofcourse), and even after the launch, you are still in denial.
 
The problem with cutting prices isn't that it only affects 3% or whatever of sales, it also affects prices downstream. The example above using the Q6600 at $200 would push down competitive CPUs and Intel's own dual core CPUs prices. I bet Intel wishes they had a Q6400 to cut prices on right now. :p

It might have been that idiot Ed at overclockers or another post I read elsewhere, but the current pricing of Phenom is unrealistic and the result of AMD promising to release the quad cores at a price above current dual cores (X2 6400+ goes for around $180 now). Volume Phenom sales will probably be much cheaper than the Q1000 prices advertised since the Q6600 sells for less than that to large customers while providing higher performance. Then the retail prices of Phenom 2.2/2.3GHz parts will also collapse by January to put them in line with performance (assuming AMD can make enough), after AMD delivers on the pricing promise.

Financially this is a disaster for AMD, but if you want a cheap quad core that has somewhat decent performance (for the price), AMD looks like they will be the one to provide it first.
 
pxc said:
The problem with cutting prices isn't that it only affects 3% or whatever of sales, it also affects prices downstream. The example above using the Q6600 at $200 would push down competitive CPUs and Intel's own dual core CPUs prices. I bet Intel wishes they had a Q6400 to cut prices on right now. :p
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Don't put any ideas in their heads :)
Perhaps Intel didn't think that even their slowest Q6600 already outperformed all Phenoms at this point.
It wouldn't be too hard for Intel to not only make MCMs out of dies that are binned at 6600 speeds, but also add 6400 or lower.
In fact, I believe I did see plans for quadcores with 2x2 mb L2 cache, and at 2.13 GHz speeds, but I'm not sure where and when (could have been low-power Xeon variations).

The danger here indeed is that quadcores will become prominent in the budget market, and dualcores will just be phased out. Just like how singlecore processors have all but disappeared from the market today.
Already the Q6600 is much cheaper than the E6600 I bought only a year ago (and yes, even at that point I considered the E6600 a mid-end CPU, it was only 300e).
 
Scali2 said:
The stock market seems to have collapsed completely after the first reviews of the Phenom. Let me just outright say it: The survival of AMD is in Intels hands now. One more price cut on the Q6600 (or the 45 nm mainstream CPUs which are less than two months away), and AMD is gone. I don't think anyone will invest now, it's time to pay up the debts.
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Intel already did this pre-emptively. What do you think the big Q6600 price cut was about, certainly not about making money (the make more selling each core individually than pairing them together now) or altruism. It was really about kicking AMD in the 'nads.

Intel sold Quads to most who would pay the big premium, then before AMD gets quads to market, they saturate the quad market with sub $300 part effectively destroying any premium AMD could get for quads.

It would have been bad enough for AMD without the glitch they have now. With the glitch no wonder the stock is tanking.
 
Scali2 said:
Exactly, I've been saying this about the new Radeons aswell, mostly the 2900.
They are high-end chips sold as low-end parts. They're very expensive to design, very expensive to produce, but they're not bringing in the big bucks.
Phenom at this point is probably worse in financial terms than their X2 series, at this point. There just have to be much lower profit margins on the chips, because they're so expensive to produce. But the performance is not there, so they cannot demand the premium price they should.

The stock market seems to have collapsed completely after the first reviews of the Phenom. Let me just outright say it: The survival of AMD is in Intels hands now. One more price cut on the Q6600 (or the 45 nm mainstream CPUs which are less than two months away), and AMD is gone. I don't think anyone will invest now, it's time to pay up the debts.
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As bottomless as the pit that AMD finds itself in,there is simply no way in hell,just no way one more price cut will deal a killing blow.What worries me even more about AMD's longterm viability,is Otellini's latest comments about cutting quad prices to sub 150 levels by Q2 !!

If this goes about,and it will,its only a matter of time,it will make it all the harder for AMD to compete even at the low end.

DAMMIT ASP's will really tank with Intel flogging 150 Penryn Quads.
 
Manny Calavera said:
As bottomless as the pit that AMD finds itself in,there is simply no way in hell,just no way one more price cut will deal a killing blow.What worries me even more about AMD's longterm viability,is Otellini's latest comments about cutting quad prices to sub 150 levels by Q2 !!

If this goes about,and it will,its only a matter of time,it will make it all the harder for AMD to compete even at the low end.

DAMMIT ASP's will really tank with Intel flogging 150 Penryn Quads.
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I dont think it will be as big a problem as you make it out to be. Lets face the facts here. AMD just released the low end of a new product range. Over the course of the next few months they will be releasing faster SKU's. Any price cuts Intel will make will be offset by higher ASP's on AMD new product range. I for one believe that AMD has hit bottom and is on it's way up from here. This is as low as it goes. The only way to go is up from here.
 
Actually duby,it can get worse,check the stock price ? ASP's will continue to fall on a bigger more expensive to produce chip,that when scaled at sub par clocks is an oven

What will TDP be at 2.8Ghz or 3Ghz ? We wont be seeing a 2.8 or 3Ghz chip @ retail for a while,but when it does come it'll pump out heat and lots of it,and use a lot of power.

AMD needs to be selling this thing at 300 and up or more.They cannot afford to continue a price war,and as I have stated in the past,its damn expensive now days to even compete in the budget market.It seems that more and more are slowly coming out of denial and admitting this thing is a failure.When will you take off the red and green glasses?

I wonder if the north bridge & L3 will be hamstrung @ 2Ghz long term,Anand seems to think so.

When it comes down to it,I am putting my money where my wouth is and buying in,but not just yet,I'll wait a few weeks...I want to see what,if any issues others have when overclocking this chip.
 
You can choose to believe what you want to believe... However I have the benefit of being around since the 386, and I've seen this same thing happen on every single new generation AMD has ever released. This is nothing new, and will work out the same way every other generation has. Some better then others, but I'll bet that if we bookmark this page and revisit it in this time next year we'll all find that I was closer to the mark then you.
 
duby229 said:
You can choose to believe what you want to believe... However I have the benefit of being around since the 386, and I've seen this same thing happen on every single new generation AMD has ever released. This is nothing new, and will work out the same way every other generation has. Some better then others, but I'll bet that if we bookmark this page and revisit it in this time next year we'll all find that I was closer to the mark then you.
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duby,my first real job was in a computer store in the summer of 1987.Dont even go there.
:D I've been around the block a few times myself.

DAMMIT is carrying nearly as much debt as they can claim in net worth.The companies market value has dropped very much near what they over paid for ATI.They are swimming in an ocean of red ink.And the stock may be going into free fall.

No amount of eulogizing over the happier days will change the harsh facts that stand tall today.

Financial balance sheets dont lie.Rose colored glasses often do. :)
 
Manny Calavera said:
duby,my first real job was in a computer store in the summer of 1987.Dont even go there.
:D I've been around the block a few times myself.

DAMMIT is carrying nearly as much debt as they can claim in net worth.The companies market value has dropped very much near what they over paid for ATI.They are swimming in an ocean of red ink.And the stock may be going into free fall.

No amount of eulogizing over the happier days will change the harsh facts that stand tall today.

Financial balance sheets dont lie.Rose colored glasses often do. :)
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And as I said, we'll just have to wait and see. I think you are making it out to be worse then it is, and by this time next year we will --know-- the truth, Until then your just being a pessimist in the wrong side of the forum. If you want to gloat take it over there.

Also as was already well explained, the conditions behind the ATi acquisition are still a little dark, and nobody knows the full truth, but as more and more information becomes available we can begin to draw a clearer picture. After all they say hind sight is 20/20. As of right now it looks like the acquisition was driven by a failure of the original K10 architecture. Shortly after that AMD announced K8L which is now known as K10. Which was almost certainly a stop gap measure. And --then-- announced they were buying ATi. Coincidence? I dont think so. Take a look at the R600 architecture and tell me if you find the reason why AMD bought ATi? The firs time I looked at it I knew why they bought them in less then 60 seconds. It was immediately clear.
 
I am not 'gloating' merely expressing my views,and they are very much correct.I am a realist not an optimist duby.You should know that by now. :)

I am a 3rd year Nursing student,that will specialize in Oncology.

Oncology is an ugly business,were few survive,and many Nurses and Doctors burn out quickly.I have great bedside manner,but I leave that for humans that deserve humility and respect,not arrogant ceo's and the corporations and products they are mishandling at the
peril of many.

I hope your right,and that things do turn around,so that in one years time,you can gloat and say 'I told you so Manny' :)

I am well aware we need AMD around long term,I'm just very concerned about the patients health.
:eek:
 
And yet you still ignore the facts. You talk as if AMD is such such peril and danger, et the truth is that AMD has a very impressive technology portfolio. All I'll say is look at the R600 architecture and tell me why you think AMD bought ATi. If you look at it, you'll find it right away.

After looking at that architecture and considering product development cycles, then try to make that same "patient" jab again. You think your innuendo is smooth, but it's really just arrogant.

Also I used the word "pessimist" Which certainly does apply.
 
duby229 said:
And yet you still ignore the facts. You talk as if AMD is such such peril and danger, et the truth is that AMD has a very impressive technology portfolio. All I'll say is look at the R600 architecture and tell me why you think AMD bought ATi. If you look at it, you'll find it right away.

After looking at that architecture and considering product development cycles, then try to make that same "patient" jab again. You think your innuendo is smooth, but it's really just arrogant.

Also I used the word "pessimist" Which certainly does apply.
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I never claimed to be smooth duby.Merely astute to the reality of it all.As to R600,its dead,its children may live to see a bright future though.

This looks real bad now that the chips have fallen.

Browsing B3D today,and seeing the reactions from a site that has long I think been pro AMD/ati,and to see even the long time apologists bringing out the pitchforks is quite the sight.

:eek:

Gloat pxc,hell no ! ;) ....I am buying in to this,after I see what others (real users) here can do with it short term.I am truly interested to see what it can do as a gaming platform,especially with the Black Editions,that we likely have Kyle to thank for. :cool:
 
Did you even read what was written?

AMD bought ATi --before-- R600 was released. It was R600 that AMD bought ATi for. All future grphics chips are entirely besides the point. It was that archtecture that prompted the ATi buyout. Look at the origina K10 and it's design goals, and then look at the R600 and it's architecture. Then tell me why you think AMD bought ATi.

Stop beating around the bush. Look at the architecture and stop making excuses. Once you've ooked at R600, and then considered product development cycles come back here and try this again.

Stop linking to irrelevant fanboy rants. Stop linking to biased executives, and look at the hard facts. Look at the R600 architecture. Just Look at it. Take 5 minutes out of your schedule to look at it.
 
duby229 said:
AMD bought ATi --before-- R600 was released. It was R600 that AMD bought ATi for. All future grphics chips are entirely besides the point. It was that archtecture that prompted the ATi buyout. Look at the origina K10 and it's design goals, and then look at the R600 and it's architecture. Then tell me why you think AMD bought ATi.

Stop beating around the bush. Look at the architecture and stop making excuses. Once you've ooked at R600, and then considered product development cycles come back here and try this again.

Stop linking to irrelevant fanboy rants. Stop linking to biased executives, and look at the hard facts. Look at the R600 architecture. Just Look at it. Take 5 minutes out of your schedule to look at it.
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Duby, maybe I'm a little dense but could you explain in some detail why you believe R600's architecture prompted AMD to purchase ATI? I've glanced at the architecture when it was released back in the summer, but I really don't understand why it's such a compelling design for a CPU manufacturer that AMD would desire purchasing ATI for what many believed was too much money. You're not referring to Fusion, correct? Many believe the acquisition was intended to expedite CPU/GPU integration in future products lines, not for Barcelona architecture development.

Honestly, don't you believe that AMD might be in a superior financial position presently if it never purchased ATI, even a little bit? Wouldn't it have demonstrated prudence on AMD's part if it forestalled its purchase by a year or two, at least until it fixed the kinks in its new architecture?
 
Let's look at the facts.

amd.gif


With its high levels of debt, underwhelming product releases, high turnover at the senior management level, some risky (unwise?) decisions that have not (yet?) paid off, no clear strategic direction/leadership to get itself out of this mess, the market view is that AMD has issues. And it has punished AMD accordingly.

Which is a shame as we need competition here.

But the sad fact is that it has been a disappointing year for AMD and there is no evidence to suggest it will get better soon.

(however, AMD has been in fairly bad situations before and survived, so we'll see)
 
APOLLO said:
Duby, maybe I'm a little dense but could you explain in some detail why you believe R600's architecture prompted AMD to purchase ATI? I've glanced at the architecture when it was released back in the summer, but I really don't understand why it's such a compelling design for a CPU manufacturer that AMD would desire purchasing ATI for what many believed was too much money. You're not referring to Fusion, correct? Many believe the acquisition was intended to expedite CPU/GPU integration in future products lines, not for Barcelona architecture development.

Honestly, don't you believe that AMD might be in a superior financial position presently if it never purchased ATI, even a little bit? Wouldn't it have demonstrated prudence on AMD's part if it forestalled its purchase by a year or two, at least until it fixed the kinks in its new architecture?
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That's a very good question and I'm glad you asked it. This requires going back in time a few years ago during K8's glory days about when the X2 was released to the market. At this point in time the theory was "thread level parallelism" This was the design goal that IBM, AMD, Intel, Sun, and many others were working towards implementing. Sun seems to have had the most success with it's Niagara brand CPU.

During this time frame AMD had a project in the works that I'm not sure what the Internal codename was, but AMD leaked it out as K10. This CPU was supposed to be --massively-- parallel. I dont think anybody knows exactly how many cores it had, or even if it ever taped out or not, but we do know that AMD scrapped it sometime during it's development cycle..... Now heres the kicker... Almost immediately after this project was scrapped AMD leaked info about K8L. I cant consider that as being a coincidence. It just cant be.

About this same time we know that AMD started talking with ATi about a possible acquisition. We didnt learn this until months later, but in hind site we know that AMD started talking to them at about the same time they scrapped K10. Then looking at the architecture that ATi was developing --at that time-- R600, it becomes perfectly clear in hind sight that their R600 architecture is --exactly-- what K10 was supposed to be, but ---waaaay--- more parallel then an x86 based architecture could ever hope to attain. Coincidence that ATi has a chip that was --exactly-- what AMD wanted? I just dont think so. It cant be. Statistically it's so small that it becomes near impossible.

Ok, s AMD bought ATi for it's R600 architecture, but the problem is that AMD still doesnt have a product on the market and nothing in development. R600 is a graphics design that will takes years to re-engineer as a general purpose desktop chip. So what now... Well it was at this time that we heard about K8L for the first time. After AMD knew that they were going to buy ATi. K8L has since been renamed to K10. Ths screams of stop gap. That is what it is... Something that AMD had thrown together to hold them over. I've been saying this for close to a year now.

This more or less brings us up to where we are today. But what about tomorrow? Fusion? Well, lets just say that there will be an awful lot of idle processing power on die that may well be too tempting for many software developers to ignore. And with instruction sets like SSE5, and hardware like the threading processor, and development environments like CTM, AMD will make using that extra hardware very easy to do.

EDIT
I've edited this post to get rid of some speculation about Fusion. I just dont know enough about it to make any kind of well informed guesses. Sorry for the ninja edit.
 
echn111 said:
Let's look at the facts.


With its high levels of debt, underwhelming product releases, high turnover at the senior management level, some risky (unwise?) decisions that have not (yet?) paid off, no clear strategic direction/leadership to get itself out of this mess, the market view is that AMD has issues. And it has punished AMD accordingly.

Which is a shame as we need competition here.

But the sad fact is that it has been a disappointing year for AMD and there is no evidence to suggest it will get better soon.

(however, AMD has been in fairly bad situations before and survived, so we'll see)
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There is plenty of evidence that things will get better.... The first one, and the most obvious is that AMD just released the low end of a new product range, and has higher end models coming out in the near future. It may never take the crown, but It'll surely compete well.
 
OK Duby, thanks for the detailed explanation. I wasn't expecting that much information, but now I understand what you are trying to convey here with AMD's Barcelona marketing strategy for the near term. Assuming that you are 100% correct, don't you think that AMD was staking its future against high odds in this game? If Barcelona is but a stopgap as you suggest, what products will generate sufficient profit to keep AMD afloat for another year or more if this product line becomes a financial bust?

AMD went into this deal already in significant debt, surely the management must have discussed the possibilities of a potential financial fallout if the worst-case scenario manifested?
 
I dont know much about business. I'm mostly a tech guy.... But f I was a finance guy I'd point you to AMD's quarterly trends. It seems lke AMD's repayment plan is what is biting it in the ass, and as soon as they can remove that load, they should be able to break even, but I dont see that happening for a while yet.

I stll think that K10 will compete fairly well, after a respin. It may not take the lead right away if ever. I remember a whle ago, when AMD released those estimated spec results, I did some calculations and said that if those numbers turn out to be true, then AMD prolly wont take the lead on launch, but they prolly will soon after. Now after seeing real hardware it seems like their estimates were way off. At this point in time it doesnt seem likely that K10 will ever be able to take the lead off of Intel This will be the first time I can ever remember Intel having the lead throuout an entire product generation. To me this is sad. This is really bad news.

How this will work out financially.... I really have no idea... But I dont believe that AMD will go under. ATi still has a number of businesses that can be spun off. AMD still has a bunch of 90nm tools that can be sold. They still have a few facilities that can be shut down. Given the worst case scenario, they still have some room to maneuver in.
 
harpoon said:
It'll force Intel off the couch, for starters. :D

Isn't 3.4GHz asking a bit much though? Doesn't seem very realistic to me.
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Not it isn't. The launch speeds of the new Phenom processors tells us that much.
 
morfinx said:
Watching from the side lines. I generally try to stay out of pissing matches :)
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Boy, did Phenom match all your hype. :rolleyes: I guess it's infectious from the CEO on down to flat out lie about performance.
 
Manny Calavera said:
Ah,there you are ! :) Any comments on the first 2 and last 2 minutes of the video below ?
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Manny, generally I try not to get into a highly contentious thread such as this, but I will give you my personal opinion on the matter, probably for the last time. I'm not on the Barcelona/Phenom team, and did not have any performance data myself until the public launch. If you do a search for my username and "Phenom",you will see that I never made any performance claims other than "let's wait for the release and see how it performs".

With that said, I can offer a few of my personal thoughts. As you know, Barcelona was late and did not launch at as high of a speed as planned. Had it gone as planned, I believe under some workloads in 4S configuration, it would have that kind of performance advantage over lowered clocked Clovertown used for the early projections. This is evidenced by the 2.5Ghz Barcelona part's SPEC FP numbers, albeit in a very specific configuration and load condition. Certainly that is no excuse, but I don't believe the claim was made in bad faith. Such is the pitfall with performance projections - things can change dramatically in the space of 6 months. As I said, they are my personal thoughts, so take them for what they are worth.

Lastly, the reason why I haven't been posting much, and probably won't anymore is perhaps a selfish one. I've been a member of the enthusiast community for many a years, long before I ever entered engineering school. Thus I felt compelled to share with fellow enthusiasts what I know within the legal bounds. Certainly you can understand as an enthusiast; when you are excited about something, you want to talk about it with like minded people. I don't get paid to browse forums, nor am I here on any official capacity. In fact there is always the fear that what I say violates some part of my employment agreement, thus I always scrutinize my post multiple times before posting. Why do you go through all this trouble to even come here then you ask? Because I'm genuinely excited about technology, and that's what got me into this business in the first place. I feel that my dealings with the members here have been courteous and tactful. Unfortunately, I cannot say the same for some in return. Alas, some members see fit to vehemently asperse my name and denigrate my character, and do so unprovoked. A member PMed me a few months ago and asked me how I can put up with this kind of constant derision. I finally see the light now. Some may enjoy this sort of abuse and thrive in it. I for one have other things in life that could better make use of my time. It's safer for me, and there will be fewer people trying to have at my flesh.
 
It is becoming clearer that AMD is in need of a strong financial partner to go on in this race. Preferrably one with complimentary business areas, e.g. Samsung (RAM, HDDs, CD/DVD, monitors++). With all PC components under one umbrella that could become a powerhouse.
 
I am very sad to see morfinx post. morfinx has been a great guy around here and never promised to give performance numbers and such. Why would anyone here denigrate him? He's just one of us enthusiasts being excited. it must be really tough on him to try not to reveal what he knows. Morfinx, i do hope you stick around.

My 2 cents about the AMD situation:

AMD saw ATi's potential. Not just with r600 but with potential of doing Fusion. Rumors has it from theinq (yes i know) that AMD talked to nvidia first, but we all know how that turned out. Be it true or not that AMD approached nvidia first, it's now a fact that AMD bought ATi. Ati r600 looked good on paper and somehow they fucked up and ended up second place while many months late. I believe good engineering and mgmt pushing for 55nm made the 3800s possible, so thumbs up there. ATi stands to make money from 3800s and help out with the debt repayments and hopefully cover some of AMD's CPU divison's losses.

AMD needs to get a CPU out that can be sold $300+. They fucked up with Phenom launch being not able to go above 2.4ghz (TLB issue) but hopefully they set it straight with B3 along with a better speeds. They are currently NOT competiting on the CPU front when the Q6600 beats in price/perf and power consumption, IMO. Fighting for low end is not a long-term survival plan. Taking it to high end (or come close to first is good enough) is the way for AMD to pave the way for 30% marketshare.

I love AMD products. ALL my computers are AMD since 2000 (when i started to get involved with computers). I recommend it to all my friends, even now. But it doesn't do away the fact that they needs products that take it up to Intel's high end (or close to) fast.
I am happy AMD bought ATi, cuz the IP ATi will save AMD in the end.
 
My theory on the AMD/ATi merger is quite different.

I think ATi saw that their R600 was going to be doomed.
AMD was interested in ATi because it could give them 'platforms' like Intel, which is what OEMs want.
So it looked like a marriage made in heaven... AMD could use ATi's chipset technology, and ATi could survive with a bigger company behind it to get through the tough times with R600, until they could get a more competitive architecture out.

The whole Fusion-thing is nothing but more marketing spin. It's even less useful than 'native' quadcore to the average user. All this talk about parallel computing and GPGPU... nice for people who run F@H clients, but other than that, what software makes use of it today? It will take years to get technology like this adopted by the mainstream. Just look at the trouble the PhysX PPU has. And, look at how poorly AMD's 64-bit mode was supported before Intel started offering it. AMD simply didn't have enough marketing share to make developers support it. Today we finally have 64-bit OSes, but still 64-bit applications are rare.

AMD thought they could get back on top with K10, so they invested big in ATi. Now they can't pay off the loans for the acquisition.
 
duby229 said:
There is plenty of evidence that things will get better.... The first one, and the most obvious is that AMD just released the low end of a new product range, and has higher end models coming out in the near future. It may never take the crown, but It'll surely compete well.
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The current release is hardly evidence of anything positive. It is another FUBAR performance. The scale of AMDs over-promise and under-delivery will be legend here. I just watched that video about how kick ass the Barcy/Phenom was going to be.

Now the reality. This launch is a disaster. A low end, low ASP part that cost a lot to produce. A nightmare scenario.

Further what is clear that despite the hype about blowing Intel away, they haven't even caught conroe on IPC.

They have established themselves as second best across the board again. Which means reduced revenues when low price becomes the main selling point.

I chuckle at the mention of the "black" edition. Other than captive users with AMD motherboards, what enthusiast is going to want a touch an unlocked CPU with known issues going above 2.4GHz, when practically everything Intel sells will go over 3GHz.
 
AMD did the right thing by releasing a platform at a cheap price, AMD gain more money from the mainstream than enthusiast. AMD could sell a chip at 3x higher price if they have a chip that can compete in the high end but in the end they can sell 30x more cheap chips than a high end chip. Read this, nVidia brought in a record revenue of $1.12 billion not because they sold more 8800 series cards but because they got a 120 percent increase in mobile GPU products which depends on the OEM.
 
I still think you guys are still being too pessimistic. Lighten up a little. Things arent as bad as the could be, and at this point it looks like AMD has hi9t the bottom, and will start picking up from here.

As far as ATi's chipset division, thats grape jelly for the bread and butter. It makes the base better, but t certainly isnt the base.
 
duby229 said:
I still think you guys are still being too pessimistic. Lighten up a little. Things arent as bad as the could be, and at this point it looks like AMD has hi9t the bottom, and will start picking up from here.

As far as ATi's chipset division, thats grape jelly for the bread and butter. It makes the base better, but t certainly isnt the base.
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I don't think AMD has hit bottom yet.
 
Dan_D said:
I don't think AMD has hit bottom yet.
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Then you are a PESSIMIST and should GET OUT of the AMD FORUM!!! :mad:;):D

Seriously, duby mockery aside, I think you're right. I believe AMD will hit rock bottom when Q1 comes and we have $270 Q9300s and $320 Q9450s.

The Q9300 will be faster than anything AMD has planed in the near future (up to 2.6GHz by late Q1) and the Q9450 will make any gains made by the B3 stepping for nought as even a 3GHz Phenom will not be able to beat it.

Which in turn should lead to a round of massive price drops across the Phenom range... things certainly are gonna get uglier before they get any prettier.
 
harpoon said:
Then you are a PESSIMIST and should GET OUT of the AMD FORUM!!! :mad:;):D

Seriously, duby mockery aside, I think you're right. I believe AMD will hit rock bottom when Q1 comes and we have $270 Q9300s and $320 Q9450s.

The Q9300 will be faster than anything AMD has planed in the near future (up to 2.6GHz by late Q1) and the Q9450 will make any gains made by the B3 stepping for nought as even a 3GHz Phenom will not be able to beat it.

Which in turn should lead to a round of massive price drops across the Phenom range... things certainly are gonna get uglier before they get any prettier.
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Where are the numbers to prove this? We already know what happens when you try to make estimations on older products.... So until these products are out and we can see the numbers for them.... Stop making excuses. Stop being so negative.
 
AMD has never been a highly profitable entity. Not even when the Athlon 64 was kicking the Pentium 4's ass all over the place in every measureable way.

They were also worse off product wise during the K5 days. That thing was a piece of shit. Then again any processor not made by Intel really was.
 
That was the whole reason why they bought NexGen. As is the whole reason why they bouht ATi.
 
duby229 said:
Where are the numbers to prove this? We already know what happens when you try to make estimations on older products.... So until these products are out and we can see the numbers for them.... Stop making excuses. Stop being so negative.
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Do I really need to spell it out for you? Kentsfield has a 10% IPC advantage over Phenom, Yorkfield has a 15% advantage.

Now, you tell me, what you think AMD needs in order to compete with 2.5 / 2.66GHz 45nm C2Qs. I've made my predictions, what is yours?
 
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