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Supreme [H]ardness
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If you can't understand what I wrote above, then you better not be underwriting the Option Put that expires on Fri.
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So after this BTC halving, should I invest a ton of money or what?
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GoldenTiger
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It's your writing that is the issue... very stream of consciousness.
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Supreme [H]ardness
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So bitcoin people I have 2 questions:
a) Today is quad witching day, in every single option expiration day, if a stock is trade down, it means it get beat up by option expiration. For e.g. I used to short SHLD, in 10 / 12 option expiration day ea. yr., they got beat down. Since bitcoin is down on quad witching day, and yet bitcoin is a commodity, can we use the same rule that applies to stock? that it got beaten down in quad. witching day, so it's a bad sign?
b) bitcoin down 2.791% as of Fri. close, but all the bitcoin ETF is only down by 0.24% to 0.41%, I thought these bitcoin ETF mimic bitcoin move, like the way QQQ clones Nasdaq, so why would bitcoin down 2.79% and yet these ETF only down 0.24% to 0.41%?
a) Today is quad witching day, in every single option expiration day, if a stock is trade down, it means it get beat up by option expiration. For e.g. I used to short SHLD, in 10 / 12 option expiration day ea. yr., they got beat down. Since bitcoin is down on quad witching day, and yet bitcoin is a commodity, can we use the same rule that applies to stock? that it got beaten down in quad. witching day, so it's a bad sign?
b) bitcoin down 2.791% as of Fri. close, but all the bitcoin ETF is only down by 0.24% to 0.41%, I thought these bitcoin ETF mimic bitcoin move, like the way QQQ clones Nasdaq, so why would bitcoin down 2.79% and yet these ETF only down 0.24% to 0.41%?
Bitcoin is not a stock. Options for bitcoin don't exist in the same manner as stocks. Bitcoin does not respect the market close or what day it is. Etfs for crypto are kinda stupid, they will not directly follow the crypto and honestly they should be avoided as opposed to just buying or shorting a crypto. The price is doing fine things. Crypto has to show some volatility before there is much movement
GoldenTiger
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Again, this is incomprehensible in regards to bitcoin.
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Supreme [H]ardness
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why is bitcoin ETF not directly follow crypto? All the other ETF for e.g., gold ETF, or Oil ETF, follows virtually tick by tick of those respective commodity. So why is bitcoin ETF different?
Nobu
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For one thing, ETFs have to stop trading when the market closes, but you can still trade btc (and other crypto) during market close. crypto ETFs are also quite young, so they probably have a lot of money flowing in and out at any given time, which will affect price.
ETF that follow an indices can often be easier, faster and cheaper for the customer than buying-selling the commodity tracked directly, I imagine it will be similar for many crypto for many people.
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Nobu
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If you really believe btc is gonna drop significantly (soon), might be worth putting a few dollars toward BITI (or another inverse ETF). Just don't bet the farm on it -- those types of etfs tend to creep down constantly, and only swing up briefly when the value does crash.
See also: https://www.investopedia.com/pros-and-cons-of-crypto-etfs-8362499
See also: https://www.investopedia.com/pros-and-cons-of-crypto-etfs-8362499
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Supreme [H]ardness
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but you can use that argument on Gold ETF and Oil ETF, all those ETF ends at 4 pm EST
They are far more established and there isn't much nominal trading of physical gold and oil. There is plenty of crypto trading outside of market hours. Also crypto isn't really a commodity.
The crypto etfs don't do a good job of matching the market, and really in principle shouldn't be used. Just trade actual crypto. The margin positions for crypto are often cheaper and more avaliable then stock options.
Also many of the crypto adjacent stocks like coin and Mara are also garbage. Just trade crypto..
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Supreme [H]ardness
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according to this, they are going to $350K if you can believe it
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitc...nt-rally-is-just-the-beginning-184753964.html
P.S. if you look at the very bottom of that table, you can see Cathie Wood haven't have sex for a long time
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Supreme [H]ardness
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I never realize trading firm allows people to trade crypto w/ margin. What's the margin? w/ currency, I know the margin is 99%, but that's very dangerous. w/ stock, it's usually 30% for stock like IBM or QQQ but some are 50%.
I am not sure what does it mean, but isn't physical oil one of the most traded physical item in world history ? I would also imagine oil trade does not follow New York trade exchange hours.
Does the ETF 10 years for now will have a value growth or decline very much linked to what bitcoin will have do... I doubt my parents would "just" buy crypto instead, that seem quite the ordeal if you do not want higher transaction fee than an ETF.
There isnt another public exchange for trading oil, gold that allowed for a open market to set its price. Cryptos price is set entirely on the trading book of crypto exchanges, etfs just mimic this by creating their own private manipulated market.
Gold and oil are prolific enough that there value is more directly tied with fiats, that makes it more reasonable to target them with an etf. Much the same it is a fuax market, the actual trading value of large amounts of physical gold or oil is a different market.
A bitcoin etf will be a magnitude less valuable then bitcoin in 10 years. Many can be constrained to the same growth and movement rules of stocks, and as always the market maker will be the true winner. Crypto is VERY cheap to trade (eth xmr, less so btc). It unfortunately can be abit of a pita, thanks to us gov kyc restrictions (another reason to not buy $coin). You can still easily trade a few hundred of cash or digital money for crypto privately.
If you want to make money on crypto it seems the only reasonable option is to buy crypto.
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kyc restrictions ruined some of it but many exchanges offer very cheap, even reckless amounts of margin. Like up to 5x (500%) which is absolutely extreme for something as volitle as crypto. The fun part, is shorts cost the same as buying margin. So unlike stock options where you will have more expensive positions, crypto is lended out for cheap and you can trade any position you would like. Fees can even be low enough that if a margin position turns out to be a win, you can hold it near indefinintly (great if btc goes to 100k). Crypto is volitile and people are stupid so more offten then not, margin losses just hit the value of your account and the account is liquidated. But any position is avalible, unlike stocks.
auntjemima
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The last day of this thread makes my head hurt.
I am not sure what does this mean, say blackrock iShres bitcoin ETF, it own around 200,000 bitcoin at the moment, how does one buying this ETF instead of bitcoin would make the return over the next 10 years not follow each other ? If the bitcoin goes up, the ETF must go up with it no ? They will have some micro hickup between the 2, but the macro should be quite similar ?
Simply put I don't believe they cover the whole asset value in crypto. They make there own market (blackrock) and let you trade in it. It kinda has to be its own market if you're going to constrain it to m-f instead of all the time. If stocks crash, crypto etfs will collapse into oblivion even if crypto thrives.
"(Crypto etf doesnt have the) same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The Trust is not a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act"
They make their own market, let you trade in it and collect profits on the movement and slack in the market. It's good for the etf if it follows crypto but doesn't have to rise the same magnitude as crypto.
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The current single ETF share price is a $39.51 on the last close, there is 401.32 millions of them, for a value of 15.77 billions.
They have around 228,613 bitcoin and just a little bit of cash, that seem close to what the bitcoin market value on the last close 1:1, if for any reason the etf is not traded at something close enough to the market value of the bitcoin, they simply sell them and give that money to the stockholder if they want.
grifter_66
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The only real advantage the bitcoin ETF has is possibly moving money in a way that doesn't trigger a taxable event. If that's not an issue i.e. your buying the ETF with cash you're leaving money on the table and making these corporations even more money... or you're just too lazy to educate yourself on the crypto market. As bitcoin becomes more scarce these ETFs are going to become way more expensive to buy into than if you were just buying bitcoin off of an exchange. You're also leaving your assets open to corporate manipulation and government interference completely negating one of the biggest benefits of holding BTC and crypto in general.
There more people that realize that bitcoin isn't a stock and shouldn't be treated like one the less of an effect the stock market will have on it. The only real parity it has with it is the people treating it like any other stock.
What we are seeing right now is the sell off of coins people have been holding for years which are finally hitting all time highs after a frigid bear market. Instead of trying to make sense of it through the lens of Wall Street, take a step back and look at it for what it is. A new store of wealth completely detached from local economies and traditional market rules. Step back 8 or even 10 years and look at it's performance pattern then stop pretending because you know the stock market you know the crypto market. and for the love of god, don't buy a Bitcoin ETF over actual bitcoin. If you have to hold your crypto in an IRA look at places like iTrust Capital, not Blackrock and the like.
There more people that realize that bitcoin isn't a stock and shouldn't be treated like one the less of an effect the stock market will have on it. The only real parity it has with it is the people treating it like any other stock.
What we are seeing right now is the sell off of coins people have been holding for years which are finally hitting all time highs after a frigid bear market. Instead of trying to make sense of it through the lens of Wall Street, take a step back and look at it for what it is. A new store of wealth completely detached from local economies and traditional market rules. Step back 8 or even 10 years and look at it's performance pattern then stop pretending because you know the stock market you know the crypto market. and for the love of god, don't buy a Bitcoin ETF over actual bitcoin. If you have to hold your crypto in an IRA look at places like iTrust Capital, not Blackrock and the like.
ETF can (and tend) to be extremely low fee, one other big advantage is not having to learn how to own (and possibly loose) your bitcoin and possibly lower cost to acquire.
How possibly so ?
Not worried about a single entity keeping control of 200k bitcoin? coinbase has custodianship of it which is fine enough, if it disappears "Bitcoin transactions are irrevocable and stolen or incorrectly transferred bitcoins may be irretrievable. As a result, any incorrectly executed bitcoin transactions could adversely affect the value of the Shares."
Also it following btc price is more of a good faith thing by the market maker "the price of the Shares may fall or otherwise diverge from NAV".
It appears they are trying to make a proper market with their holdings and structure. they are still making a market, as they cannot trade 24/7. My biggest concern would be institutional corruption related to crypto. I dont see any actual proof of btc holdings. So imagine the following, stocks and fiats are struggling. Crypto is doing well, blackrock sells 100k btc crashing the price and bringing in enormous amounts of usd. They are now obligated to paying off less to the holders due to the price crash. They have enough cash on hand to keep the market settled. It can be hidden as they are just part of the coinbase pool, no obligation to properly account for the movent of holdings.
Id agree with this. Why let your money be utilized by a large finance entity to manipulate markets when you could own crypto directly?
Would also be worried very much about me of anyone else keeping control of coin, but yes that seem a valid concern, maybe bitcoin is not as good at being gold than gold is in that regard ? both easier to steel and use if you do ?
Sure, but if it goes up (not sure how-why) all good obviously, if it goes down too much they will simply sales the bitcoins, destroy the ETF and give people money directly instead.
All you describe seem like general ETF issues, not particular to crypto (and if they sell large amount that would it show up on the public stack ?), I get someone interest in crypto to not trust institution ( I guess this goes hand and hand) but if bitcoin is not better than gold at having something as simple and standard and that seem obviously perfect use case for bitcoin like this ? That sound like an issue for the usefulness of it.
Much simpler (at least for the price comparable option, iShares bitcoin is at 0.12-0.25% fees I think and etf transaction at brokerage at really low, often virtually free on large enough amount) and if you are in charge, you risk to mess it and loose it.
These is abit of a history with large btc accounts or holdings going poof. Numerous exchanges did just that. I think coinbases custodianship of the btc is relatively secure but it allows them to hide the movement of crypto from the account and the size of the account. If blackrock and coinbase collaborate they could easily manipulate crypto prices with these holdings and it would just look like trading. Gold is pretty good at being gold, relatively stable value. physical security instead of digital, and so intertwined with fiat that something like a eft for it makes alot of sense.
If it goes down by too much id be more concerned about total collapse of the eft. "Extreme volatility in the future, including further declines in the trading prices of bitcoin, could have a material adverse effect on the value of the Shares and the Shares could lose all or substantially all of their value." can btc lose "all" of its value? This etf is proped on the back of finantial giants because they wanted to make a market. Its only loosly regulated. The ownership of actual crypto is backed by robust decentralized math. I trust the math more.
General etfs are more heavily regulated and better natured then a crypto etf. A very large crypto etf enables pretty significant market manipulation. Much like if one party owned all the diamonds in the world and made a etf for diamond price. Gold works because Its huge and its value is deeply intrinsic.
The fees are not the total cost. When you are trading in a faux market there is value and slack absorbed by the maker. The cost to the buyer is it may not move as extreme as the actual crypto (we may only see this during an actual spike of profit)
Crypto is about as hard to obtain as a stock and you must be responsible with its ownership like a pile of gold or cash. If the government stayed out of it crypto would be much easier to obtain and trade then stocks.
well yes obviously but in that case it is perfectly fine for the etf too loose all its value, by going down I was talking about the gap of the ETF valuation versus the valuation of the BTC holded, if it ever grow too much, they simply sell them and give people cash for their share.... It is backed by something, you do not need a buyer of the actual etf for it to have value, if no one want them, sales the assets and use the cash to buy back the shares.
Because you are really good at keeping and not getting stolen your keys, I would not tell my parents to do this (would you ?), they would end up trusting some entity a la coinbase, use some wallet, etc... anyway and not trust only math.
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Oddly, I was arguing that it is impossible for the value of btc to go to 0, assuming that the network remains unbroken. Much like the value of gold can never be 0 provided we cannot mint free gold. The ETF can go to 0, they highlight a few ways this could happen in the sec document. There shares are "Backed by bitcoin held by the Bitcoin Custodian on behalf of the Trust." which is proper. I would also agree with your idea on ETF valuation. I dont see enough info disclosed to assume they are solely holding share owners fiats and converting it to BTC holdings. That type of pooling of fiat can be done with full discloser and only an exchange to mediate the transfer between fiat and crypto. That exchage would be at spot price and the eft could directly mimic the cryptos price (with restriction on trading hours). By involving blackrock and coinbase they have steped abit past this. It apears blackrock chose to mediate a faux market, and intigrate with a large exchage. There are benifits to being the market maket they will relize on the micro and marco level (maybe we could see on a good price comparison graph between btc and the etf). Additinally, and perhaps more importantly, These holdings of btc could give them significant market power over crypto. "if" they can find some fluidity in the holdings (a scheme between coinb and blackr or perhaps their reporting requirments arnt terribly rigorous). That would allow this large finantial institution to directly manipulate the value of btc, and the "price" of their own etf. Generating wealth at the expence of the crypto and etf.
Ya not quite the same as a retirment account or id verified trading. Not so hard either, you could give a 80yr old a peice of paper with a private key on it, tell them not to lose it and remember a password and store as much value as you want relatively securly. There are other options for actually securing crypto if that was required. On the other side, crypto exchanges are a horable place to store crypto, and ideal for trading. Much crypto has certainly been lost.
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Supreme [H]ardness
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is it because your expertise is in pancake only?
GoldenTiger
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Is yours in bunnies only?is it because your expertise is in pancake only?
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Supreme [H]ardness
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Luke is talking about BlackRock Bitcoin ETF ONLY, you are talking about Crypto, which is compose of bitcoin and the other crypto asset class. To the best of my knowledge, there is NO ETF on Crypto, only on Bitcoin, all these other "colleagues" of yours, ARKB, BRRR, HODL, BTCO, IBIT, BITB, FBTC, GBTC are bitcoin only. In particular, that babe Cathie Wood that dump 25 whoppy percent of her entire portfolio on bitcoin
auntjemima
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Good jokes, but I can't follow your posts at all.is it because your expertise is in pancake only?
I won't fault you, as English doesn't appear to be your primary language.
Be safe out there.
Ya my fault for not being more clear. Unfortunately for most cases crypto=btc. The altcoins haven't decoupled from btc in awhile, and in the mentioned case where we see billions of dollars of manipulation flowing into btc, crypto will directly follow.
Also buy eth, its cool.
auntjemima
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Currently sitting on 12 eth. From the good old mining days.
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Supreme [H]ardness
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How exactly do you buy eth? Do you people have an actual hardware crypto wallet? Or you people go thru 1 of those crypto website? Also, I don't trust any of those website as if that website go belly up, then the investors are finished, just like SVB. So I only have my acct. w/ giant bank. And I don't think giant bank buy / sell eth
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Supreme [H]ardness
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do you bunch of bitcoin bull still uphold your belief? because since it hit a high of $73K, it dropped down to $64K, bounces back a bit to $68K, but then drop again today to $63K. So from $73K to $63K this morning, it is a drop of $10K. As such, it has passed the market's 10% correction territory
GoldenTiger
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What do you mean? It isn't a stock, it does not have any imaginary correction territory.
grifter_66
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Are you just going to keep asking the same question over and over? You've proven numerous times throughout this thread you know nothing about the crypto market and continuously keep, incorrectly, comparing it to the stock market. If you're going to continue to be part if discussion maybe its time you go and actually learn something about Bitcoin and the crypto market in general.
Also, when I told you to look at the pattern of behavior of bitcoin I didn't mean the last 2 1/2 years, I meant the last decade.
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Supreme [H]ardness
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okay, tell me this: the convention used by market maker is the same, whether it's a stock, a ETF, gold, oil, etc. CNBC has use oil for e.g., when they use the convention that : 10% is a correction, 20% is in bear market territory. Bitcoin is a commodity no difference than anything else. It's not a stock of course, but market maker still use the same gauge. Who say bitcoin is excluded from their conventional gauge?
See below, I am not the only one saying it:
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/19/bitcoin-drops-under-63k-leads-to-marketwide-correction/
https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoi...ed-meeting-jitters-crypto-stocks-tank-8610937
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Bitcoin is not a commodity. It's classified as such. It is a crypto.
It is more volatile then currency, stock, oil, etfs etc. That 10% number is rubbish for stocks.
Patern prediction for stocks is inaccurate. Any time you see a crypto graph with lines drawn on it they are wrong.
Crypto is manipulated (as are stocks, oil). Large amounts of crypto will move at the whim of whales, news and, nonsense. This drop is nothing I'd consider buying in now.
The powers that be will not allow crypto to thrive if fiats and stocks are struggling. Btc does have a ceiling to what it can be worth on the spikes. 110k would be a crazy upperend.
Don't read crypto news
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