So after this BTC halving, should I invest a ton of money or what?

R

Rev. Night

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Mar 30, 2004
Messages
1,493
BTC is at an all time high right now, thats why I just sold. Several articles said that after the halving, the new price should be in the $40s. Invest then?

Whats peoples general impression of BTC right now?
 
Not sure why halving would lower the price (would not help the supply side) one would imagine that if people are aware before it happen that it would already be priced in... a future 100% known event should not have impact not already priced in possible to predict
 
Last edited:
https://www.coinbase.com/bitcoin-halving

I finish reading the above. what does that mean in plain English? it sounds like availability reduce by half? or it sounds like market manipulation

like exactly what does this mean:

When Bitcoin halves, the reward given to the contributors securing the network is reduced by 50%, directly impacting the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced into circulation.
Click to expand...
 
Happy Hopping said:
I finish reading the above. what does that mean in plain English? it sounds like availability reduce by half? or it sounds like market manipulation
Click to expand...
It is a preprogrammed from the start market manipulation that occured many times in the past already, getting bitcoin from mining got harder and harder over time and how much you get for winning is reduced over time.

  1. What Is Bitcoin Halving?
    • Bitcoin halving is a significant event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network.
    • It impacts the block reward given to miners for successfully mining a new block.
  2. How It Works:
    • The block reward is the incentive provided to miners for validating and adding transactions to the blockchain.
    • Initially, when Bitcoin was created, the block reward was 50 BTC per block.
    • After every 210,000 blocks mined (which takes about four years), the block reward is halved.
    • The most recent halving occurred on May 11, 2020, reducing the block reward to 6.25 BTC1.
    • The next halving is expected in early-to-mid 2024, further reducing the reward to 3.125 BTC.
  3. Implications:
    • Halvings have several implications:
      • They reduce the rate at which new bitcoins are created, leading to scarcity.
      • As the total supply approaches the theoretical maximum of 21 million bitcoins, each halving has a diminishing impact.
      • The final halving is projected to occur around 2140, when the total circulating supply reaches the cap of 21 million bitcoins.
  4. Bitcoin Mining Basics:
    • Bitcoin mining involves using computers (nodes) to validate transactions and add them to the blockchain.
    • Miners compete to find a nonce (a number) that, when hashed, produces a value lower than the target hash.
    • Solving this cryptographic puzzle requires computational work (proof-of-work).
    • The first miner to find a valid nonce gets to create a new block and receives the block reward.
  5. Why Halving Matters:
    • Halving ensures that Bitcoin issuance is controlled and predictable.
    • It counteracts inflation by gradually reducing the rate of new coin creation.
    • The scarcity created by halving events may contribute to price increases if demand remains constant.
 
Rev. Night said:
Can I have a cliffs please
Click to expand...
I am not sure your interest in crypto is right now, developing a product that use bitcoin for something, using bitcoin for transaction, investing in it directly or indirectly, etc...

But if something as simple as halving, explained via 15 short bullet point seem too daunting, maybe a regular index fund (that could include a bitcoin ETF) with consultation of your bank's advisor could be the way to go
 
but the bitcoin itself is going up non-stop, last week, using Fri. 4 pm as cut off time, they got up 23.079% or $11708.68, and 2 wk prior, again using Fri. 4 pm as cut off, they are up 10.633% or $5013. There is no way w/ 43 days left, this trend will continue? Surely someone will do some profit taking. On unrelated news, Jim Chanos, a commentator at CNBC must be losing his shirt by now, as he's a short seller, and last time they interview him, he's still shorting Coinbase

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/22/jim...se-even-with-a-70percent-rally-this-year.html
 
Btc may go crazy. Honestly not a good thing for fiats and stocks so the forces that may be could keep it fairly reasonable (2x spike).

I think ethereum is a better buy and btc may increase. We may see a crash of more then just crypto in the future..
 
All the halving does is reduce incentive to mine btc (via a btc miner) and reduce the amount of coins which enter the market in that way.

The halving does not change the actual value and number currently in circulation.

Basically, it reduces the number of btc "minted" each time a block is mined.
 
The halving is an anti-inflationary tool built into BTC. Every 4 years the amount of time/energy required to mine a single BTC doubles. There are only 21 million BTC that can ever be mined, so after this halving there will only be one more as there will be no more BTC to mine by the time the following halving would occur.

Depending on when you bought now is a pretty bad time to sell it all. I'd hold on to at least a quarter of one. People can laugh and make fun of BTC all they want but it is the future of monetary exchange and holdings. If you can get in now I would, the odds of it ever going below $50k again are slim to none and not much better for going below $60k. Greyscale sold off billions last week and it barely dropped it 4%. This cycle isn't going to play out the same as the others, we've never seen BTC hit or surpass the previous all time high before the halving before. Between it's scarcity and the ETFs things are going to move quick and opportunities are going to dwindle.
 
LukeTbk said:
For tax implication ?
Click to expand...
Just more because it's going to rise pretty steadily over the next 5 months. If you bought in the sub $20k then definitely take some profits but if you can wait 5 months I would. The reason I say 5 months is no one is sure if this is just an accelerated cycle or if we are entering a state of a permanent bull run for BTC. Maybe I'm over bullish but IMO BTC is to traditional FIAT what the Internet was to dictionaries and encyclopedias. The financial world is changing and BTC is leading the charge.
 
grifter_66 said:
Just more because it's going to rise pretty steadily over the next 5 months.
Click to expand...
That would make it a bad sell regardless of when you bought....

grifter_66 said:
Maybe I'm over bullish but IMO BTC is to traditional FIAT what the Internet was to dictionaries and encyclopedias.
Click to expand...
I feel more to gold, %0-negative interest bond, maybe reserve... but for a lot of what traditionnal FIAT do there almost no link with what BTC can do.
 
grifter_66 said:
The halving is an anti-inflationary tool built into BTC. Every 4 years the amount of time/energy required to mine a single BTC doubles. There are only 21 million BTC that can ever be mined, so after this halving there will only be one more as there will be no more BTC to mine by the time the following halving would occur.

Depending on when you bought now is a pretty bad time to sell it all. I'd hold on to at least a quarter of one. People can laugh and make fun of BTC all they want but it is the future of monetary exchange and holdings. If you can get in now I would, the odds of it ever going below $50k again are slim to none and not much better for going below $60k. Greyscale sold off billions last week and it barely dropped it 4%. This cycle isn't going to play out the same as the others, we've never seen BTC hit or surpass the previous all time high before the halving before. Between it's scarcity and the ETFs things are going to move quick and opportunities are going to dwindle.
Click to expand...
but bitcoin is not like gold or oil, there is no pattern such as economical or political events that affects its up / down. Take today for e.g., it drops back to 61K as a low
 
There is very much a pattern, take a step back and look at the charts. It's pretty damn predictable. Just because it's not effected as much by the things we are accustomed to doesn't mean there isn't one.

$6k drop is nothing, it looks volatile at the micro but the at the macro it's pretty damn stable and always trends up.
 
Please explain your reasoning, because if you look at the diagonal line on the left, from the high to low, Jan 8 to Jan. 23, there is a 22.574% drop. In the stock market, 10% is called a correction, 20% is a bear market, at 22.574%, it should be well into bear market territory. Then suddenly comes that red circle on the right, that's called a parabolic gain. At any stock market, any parabolic gain is unsustainable.

So when you said "There is very much a pattern, take a step back and look at the charts. It's pretty damn predictable", how do you justify that?

Further, shouldn't bitcoin be a "secondary" investment engagement? meaning that John Doe invest some $ to old economy or to technology stock. He then make some $, then he takes some of that $ and buy bitcoin ETF. Noone would dive their portfolio into bitcoin ETF w/o dipping into old economy or technology stock.

And back in 2023, a good no. of CNBC guests, has commented that they are expecting a recession in some part of 2024. The inversion of yield curve, being the no. 1 leading indicator w/ 99% accuracy since WW II, has been inverted for well over 1+ yr. So there should be outflow of $ from old economy and technology stock, and these people would sit in cash. As they are expecting a recession or a mild recession or a no. of other regional bank failure such as what happened to Signature Bank. So how does these market maker put $ into bitcoin when they are expecting a recession and moving their $ out of old & new economy stocks?
 

Attachments

  • scan.JPG
    scan.JPG
    200.2 KB · Views: 0
Last edited:
Log scale, sell around 150-160K, wait for bear market, buy back in, rinse and repeat. Or just HODL for 10 years if that's your thing.

- don't know anything, just behind keyboard/monitor expert analysis.


1709752590344.png
 
Last edited:
Added the x-axis...

I got a feeling we'll be visiting 30-35k in a couple months first before shooting up again though, makes sense because the stock market (Nvidia) needs to cool down anyways and only reason BTC is pumping is because the overall stock market is pumping.
 
umm am I reading that graph right? It says at the end of 2023, BTC will be at $215K
 
legcramp said:
Added the x-axis...

I got a feeling we'll be visiting 30-35k in a couple months first before shooting up again though, makes sense because the stock market (Nvidia) needs to cool down anyways and only reason BTC is pumping is because the overall stock market is pumping.
Click to expand...
that's exactly what I'm saying above, but do you believe the halving event will cause bitcoin continue to rally up till the halving day?
 
bitcoin is up another 9.384% as of Fri. close or $5859.46, at $68.3K, how many of you think they are just wobbling at the top and has mostly top out? And for those above who think bitcoin is a function of teh primary S&P market, a good no. of commentators that air on CNBC have said the yr. end target of S&P is 5100, which is where we are now. So S&P could wobble in tight range thru out until end of Aug. before it nose dive in Sept. & Oct. and bounce up after that
 
Cathy Wood may be crazy, but i'm beginning to believe that saying "method to the madness"... :sneaky:
 
are you people all riding this to the moon?

I admit Cathie Wood has a lot of guts. While so many of us said she shouldn't have bet all the eggs in 1 basket, and Arc did drop for a good no. of mth., in the end, she hold on to her belief and proves all of us are wrong. Cathie reminds me of Meredith Whitney, when everyone tell Meredith to take a hike, she hold to her research on Citi, and in the end proves to the entire wall street that she's right, and EVERYONE in Wall Street are wrong.
 
Last edited:
grifter_66 said:
.

$6k drop is nothing, it looks volatile at the micro but the at the macro it's pretty damn stable and always trends up.
Click to expand...
alright, bitcoin people, they drop $2K today, and another $4K just now in the after hr., so what now? do you still uphold what you said? In an interview w/ CNBC last yr, the CEO of Coinbase said he has no clue which way the wind is blowing
 
Bitcoin rewards one in direct proportion to ones faith in it.
 
It did the same thing on the 5th before continuing it's march upward. It's either a good time to buy or you should've sold already, but it's never too late I suppose.
 
I don't own any. I try to get it on next week option call this afternoon, but those options are so expensive that I didn't buy it. I am hoping for a drop on any given Monday so that current week option call will drop say $200, for me to go in.

Today is Thurs. , so I would expect the option call next week should drop given what I see during the day. They did drop some, but w/ tomorrow being the closing day of this week option, and it's the Option Expiration Day for March, I thought next week option call should drop a huge amt., they didn't. So the Smart Money would indicates that you people are right, that they don't see a down side.

By the way, on the 5th they only drop 1 day. This time they drop 2 days if you count tonight, it has just drop another 5K from today's close
 
Happy Hopping said:
I don't own any. I try to get it on next week option call this afternoon, but those options are so expensive that I didn't buy it. I am hoping for a drop on any given Monday so that current week option call will drop say $200, for me to go in.

Today is Thurs. , so I would expect the option call next week should drop given what I see during the day. They did drop some, but w/ tomorrow being the closing day of this week option, and it's the Option Expiration Day for March, I thought next week option call should drop a huge amt., they didn't. So the Smart Money would indicates that you people are right, that they don't see a down side.

By the way, on the 5th they only drop 1 day. This time they drop 2 days if you count tonight, it has just drop another 5K from today's close
Click to expand...
I can't make any sense of your post, but just go buy btc on your own if you want it. ;) I'm sure a rabbit lover like you will do just fine....

This post is not investment advice.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top