PC Shipments To Fall 8.7% This Year

H

HardOCP News

[H] News
Joined
Dec 31, 1969
Messages
0
The professional guessers at IDC are once again predicting doom and gloom for the PC industry until at least 2017.

Research firm International Data Corp forecast a steeper fall in PC shipments in 2015 due to a large inventory of notebooks and the impact of a strong dollar, and said demand would not stabilize until 2017. IDC expects shipments to fall 8.7 percent this year, compared with its earlier forecast of a decline of 6.2 percent.
 
I predict that PC sales will remain flat indefinitely. Like tile cleaner it's now a mature product.
 
New desktops will be needed for the foreseeable future. However, since most businesses upgraded their computers to new Windows 7 machines within just a couple of years ago, I do not see a mass purchasing going on for businesses again until at least the end of the decade.

On home computers, I think new machines will be a big thing with Windows 10 out now and some Windows Vista and 7 computers failing and not making it cost effective to repair. However, a lot of those machines may end up being Surface Pro type machines or laptops instead of replacement desktops. However, I am getting the upgrade itch something bad so we will see. :D
 
Welcome to the world of a mature fully saturated market with a robust product that last for many years and has no depreciation associated with it ... I am still running a desktop from 2008 although I will try and upgrade at the end of the year, depending on how badly my employer stiffs me on the bonus ... I bought my kids new computers a few years ago and this year but don't plan any more upgrades for them anytime soon

For Enterprise, which is the dominant PC purchaser these days, they are definitely stretching out the upgrade cycles since laptops last longer and the depreciation on IT hardware doesn't favor frequent upgrades
 
In my opinion, the main reason that PC sales are slow is that there is no compelling reason to upgrade your hardware. The CPU you bought 5 years ago is sufficient for just about any task. Overclockers and gamers do not drive the market, businesses and average home users do.
 
In other news, desktop speed has only gone up 8.7% a year for the last decade, and that is being very generous. If you count single core performance, well is that core2/ first gen i3 really that much slower at 3ghz? More power hungry yes.
 
The problem with desktop is that Intel outdid themselves with the i serie CPU...
Even a first gen i serie is still a viable CPU today if paired with an up to date GPU and SSD.

I'm a big techie and even I only replace the core machine when it break now. Before, I use to upgrade to the latest gen every year.
 
I've just rolled out 15 Windows 7 pro desktops to a new customer.

Where they new machines? Nope.

Ex. corporate HP 3GHz dual cores with 4GB of ram and 500GB HDDS. They will run Office all day long.

Customers don't want new kit when there are masses of 3 year old machines going for £100 a throw.
 
Tuxon86 said:
The problem with desktop is that Intel outdid themselves with the i serie CPU...
Even a first gen i serie is still a viable CPU today if paired with an up to date GPU and SSD.

I'm a big techie and even I only replace the core machine when it break now. Before, I use to upgrade to the latest gen every year.
Click to expand...

Any C2D will do for 98% of general Office work. If its getting slow chances are it either needs more ram or a SSD. Rarely is it the CPU anymore.

2008 kit still rocks.
 
For the most part people just don't need a computer any more. Their cheap phones and tablets let them surf and pay their bills, and for people that do need computers, their old machines are more than powerful enough for day to day tasks. My Wife's crappy Gateway laptop from seven years ago still runs like a champ with Windows 10 and a new SSD, so besides me tinkering with my desktop, I don't see us buying a new PC any time soon.
 
Gweenz said:
In my opinion, the main reason that PC sales are slow is that there is no compelling reason to upgrade your hardware. The CPU you bought 5 years ago is sufficient for just about any task. Overclockers and gamers do not drive the market, businesses and average home users do.
Click to expand...

At work, our "upgrades" are a slightly better CPU (from an i5 to an ... i5! Just newer model, same speed), SSD and more RAM. The SSD and RAM upgrade are the performance upgrade. I can take an 'old' machine (T410) and upgrade it with an SSD and more RAM and get close to the same performance. Form factor is a bit different (slim model vs. the bulky old model).
 
What bugs me about a lot of those so called analyst reports is that most of them fail to point out the fact that the situation is as mentioned above.

People just don't need new kit. As soon as dual core CPUs arrived ten years ago the decline was inevitable. The average user was satisfied. Most operating systems were perfectly sorted since 2009.

However, they are angled as though its the fault of Microsoft or the OEMs.

It more a case of the hardware software got too good. Not any direct failing from anyone.
 
kbrickley said:
Welcome to the world of a mature fully saturated market with a robust product that last for many years and has no depreciation associated with it ... I am still running a desktop from 2008 although I will try and upgrade at the end of the year, depending on how badly my employer stiffs me on the bonus ... I bought my kids new computers a few years ago and this year but don't plan any more upgrades for them anytime soon

For Enterprise, which is the dominant PC purchaser these days, they are definitely stretching out the upgrade cycles since laptops last longer and the depreciation on IT hardware doesn't favor frequent upgrades
Click to expand...


I've been replacing the oldest desktops still in use at the office, still have a couple more to go.
They are mainly running an old application that doesn't need much CPU since it was designed in the days of the P2/P3.

The old Desktops are OptiPlex 160l's from 2004 that originally came with Windows 2000.
- guess we got our money's worth out of them :)

Over the years they've been upgraded to XP and eventually Windows 7. Drives and memory where pulled from other retired systems to keep them going, but it had gotten to the point that they needed to be upgraded just to run the newest version of office :)

I don't see moving them off Windows 7 or buying new desktops for them for a very long time.
 
There may be change due to people using Windows 10 on laptops, 2 in 1's, and tablets wanting the same on a desktop.
There may be a desire for new with touch screen desktops that never happened with Window 8.
Reuse of old-old desktops is less and less cost effective.
Admittedly Window 7 serves very well at this time.
 
ir0nw0lf said:
Time for all the Chicken Littles to come out and declare PCs dead. :eek:
Click to expand...

Depends on how you look at it. PC's aren't dead - they are awesome and almost too good. That takes it to the other viewpoint: less new PC sales. So, looking at sales numbers, PC's are in the decline. Looking at the number of PC's being used, it's still doing great.

I guess it depends on if you're an accountant or if you're into computers...
 
Wasn't a very scientific test...
But, a quick check on Xeon E5 CPUs looks encouraging. RAM prices also look good.

Though disappointed in apparent degradation in overall quality. Seems that manufactures are OK with a roughly 10-20% output failure rate (i.e. customer testing).
 
IDC also reported that tablet sales will fall 8% this year. What does hurt the PC numbers a bit here with IDCs count is that Windows x86 tablets and hybrids are counted as tablets. If they were counted as PCs tablet sales would have fallen even more and PC sales would have only had about half the decline.
 
Looks like the consumer side of PC sales will continue tanking, with no recovery in sight.
 
pxc said:
Looks like the consumer side of PC sales will continue tanking, with no recovery in sight.
Click to expand...

Consumers have other priorities ... every house already has at least one functioning computer (the ones that don't either can't afford one or don't want one) ... if something comes out that needs people to buy new computers (no idea what that might be ... home automation maybe) then they will buy (if the price is right) ... without some new whiz bang need they will upgrade when things break (just like they do for every other household appliance ... which the computer has become) :cool:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top