Anthropic Files For IPO

To note over 72 billions of the 80 billions lost in 2026 having nothing to do with operation or cash.... it is GAAP rules turning those complex previous funding rounds instrument as lost, a clean up of the ownership paper trail that the ipo would whipeout.

For the 3 month ending june 30, 2026, anthropic revenues were 11.5 billions while the compute and infracstructure cost between 5.5-6 billions, for a total compute cost (inference +training of future models) getting close to get under 50% of the revenues, should already be under 45% in Q3.

FOMO will drive up the stock price.

should do better than the SpaceX ipo in the short term

setting money on fire.

"Anthropic Files to Go Public on Nasdaq, Reveals $16.3 Billion in First-Half Revenue​

by DrUsmanSaleem Today, 20:03 Discuss (0 Comments)
Anthropic has publicly filed for an IPO, submitting an S-1 to the SEC on October 26 with plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT." The filing leaves the price range and share count blank for now, but the Wall Street Journal reports the offering could raise $100 billion or more at a valuation of $1.5 to $2 trillion. If that ends up being the case, it would top the record SpaceX set with its June IPO. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley head a long list of underwriters, and trading is reportedly targeted for the week of November 16. The prospectus also gives the first official look at Anthropic's books.

Revenue for the first half of 2026 came in at a massive $16.3 billion, up from $1.16 billion a year earlier. The company also posted an $80.7 billion net loss. However, about $72.4 billion of that is a non-cash charge tied to the changing value of convertible notes and similar instruments, and the operating loss was a much smaller $693 million. Anthropic says more than 11,900 customers now spend at least $100,000 a year, and it holds about $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments. It has also signed huge compute commitments, including up to $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110 billion with Amazon, and a separate deal for AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs. Of course, the filing comes with the usual warnings, as Anthropic says it may not reach or sustain profitability and expects costs to keep rising. OpenAI, meanwhile, says it doesn't expect to go public until next year."

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/26/...8734&user_id=c383821527c441214d07ce6e4a6ba12a

“For the market, it’s a bellwether,” said Umesh Padval, an investor at Seligman Ventures, who has worked in tech for nearly 40 years.

If Anthropic disappoints in its public debut, that could hurt investor confidence and cascade into a wider market sell-off, casting doubts on how much longer the A.I. boom can go. A successful offering could lift the market and pave the way for more A.I. companies to go public.

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are worth more than $1 trillion together, with eight of them being tech companies. Combined, the top 10 account for over 40 percent of the index, up from less than 20 percent a decade ago.

When Anthropic is added to the index, it is likely to displace either Berkshire Hathaway or Eli Lilly, the only non-tech companies with valuations above $1 trillion, from the top 10.

erek said:

and it holds about $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments

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They must be even lower in interest type debt than we thought, they rose 141.1 billions in equity rounds as on june 30, they only have 6.2 billion in traditional debt, that could be like 2 weeks of revenues now.

So if they rise "only" 100 billions by the IPO that would be much smaller than what they did on the private market, which is a bit of a sign of our time.... how big private market got and how much regular people are kept out of a giant part of the growth now. Same with spaceX doing an "only" 75 billion IPO

LukeTbk said:

They must be even lower in interest type debt than we thought, they rose 141.1 billions in equity rounds as on june 30, they only have 6.2 billion in traditional debt, that could be like 2 weeks of revenues now.

So if they rise "only" 100 billions by the IPO that would be much smaller than what they did on the private market, which is a bit of a sign of our time.... how big private market got and how much regular people are kept out of a giant part of the growth now. Same with spaceX doing an "only" 75 billion IPO

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think it’s better to stay private in many regards?

i would like to invest in the otc/bb and secondary markets (unless that doesn’t even make sense and is an irrelevant remark to the conversation)

AI tokens are getting cheaper by the day. Go figure out how to make net profit even in the next year or so. Just too much uncertainty at this moment. May just put aside some small gambling money that I can afford to lose or hold till eternity.

erek said:

think it’s better to stay private in many regards?

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There is advantage, you do not have to deal with SEC rules of reporting and you get way less media scrutiny (when the last time you heard about Monsanto now that it is private they made the news big time once every 3 years before, you need to be able to feel blood in the water and cause pain (and short people to want to make money) for people to care, Mars-Koch and other flew under the radar all along.

But you do not get very fast/liquid giant source of "free" financing, giving stock bonus to talents will be simpler and more interesting for the employees when they are public company.

For an anthropic or an OpenAI, those cap table are so messy than the process of going public force them into a needed clean up (specially openAI being funded as a non profit and a second different entity by Elon Musk at the origin), it is really good for them I think and they need capital, not ever taking loans would be a great way to go. It force a clean up in a much simple common vs special but not that special stock ownership.

pututu said:

AI tokens are getting cheaper by the day. Go figure out how to make net profit even in the next year or so. Just too much uncertainty at this moment. May just put aside some small gambling money that I can afford to lose or hold till eternity.

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They are probably already quite profitable right now, in Q2 which is a long time ago for how fast they are ramping up, by Q2 revenues were already much bigger than all compute together expense.

In H1,
revenues: 16.3 billions
compute & infracstructure cost: 8.9 billions

that a great operating margin, in Q2 alone it was 11.6 vs 5.6 billions, for 6 billions in revenues-compute gross compute profit in Q2 versus 1.4 in Q1. While the growth must be slowing down a lot, in q4 they would still be over 10 billions and pay for marketing, employee and administration by now, they were already ~8.75+ in Q3 estimates, people expect up to 12 in Q4. 8.75 gross income that was already profitable with Q2 rest of expense with a very wide margin to play with.

Token cost for the same task are going down at ridiculous pace, like 10-100x in 18-36 months type, but task complexity are growing and because usage explode the ratio inference / training use get bigger and bigger, the part that generate revenues become more and more what the compute is used for.

And the cost of generating token is plummeting as of now even faster than their cost, that why combined Anthropic revenues went up by 12x while compute only by 3x

people in the know will stilll make a ton of money even knowing the AI bubble is going to burst.

If you are one of those people in the know, (that know that the AI bubble is going to burst and that will affect the stock market vastly before the end of 2028) it should be relatively easy to make a lot of money, no need to be an insider and special access to first day IPO stuff.

Simply buying this: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA290119P00070000/, you can make a nice 100% return even if Nvidia valuation stay more than the double of its 2021 peak during the crypto super demand cycle...

I think most of the AI is going to burst pundit if they are not doing this, they just mean of the 12 biggest players only ~6 will be clear winners and of those probably Anthropic will be one of them, Nvidia-Google 2 others, or just trying to make money for clicks using Internet hyperbole, when they only think that the AI bubble is likely to burst.

My guess is that AI stock price fluctuations will make Bitcoin price changes look calm in comparison

philb2 said:

My guess is that AI stock price fluctuations will make Bitcoin price changes look calm in comparison

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The stock market has multiple protections that the Bitcoin market doesn't have, such as circuit breakers.

Short of fraud, or investors margin calling every AI company at once, even if we go full on apocalyptic stock disaster, you can keep your losses to relatively minor damage.

Bubble bursts aren't one day events. There are typically warning signs, high volatility, along with some significant drops in the market prior to the major event. And even after any major event, there's almost always a dead cat bounce. Many people, who even believe this will end badly, still understand that they can make money, and while they won't time things perfectly, profit is still profit, and worst case, they'll take a minor hit.